Adapting Airports to Climate Change

Transcription

1 Adapting Airports to Climate Change ACI-NA Environmental Affairs Conference Seattle, WA April 6, 2009 David Ernst 2006 ICF International. All rights reserved.

2 Introduction Aviation GHG Emissions Climate Change Most attention has focused on aviation s contribution to climate change Climate Change Aviation An equally important issue for airports: How climate change will affect aviation Airports generally are highly vulnerable to severe weather conditions and potentially to changing weather patterns Nature of the risk from climate change is location-specific e.g., sea level rise and storm surge are only concerns for airports located in coastal areas 2

3 Introduction Climate change adaptation hasn t been on airports radar Current focus tends to be on mitigation Climate viewed as complex and uncertain Data for high-certainty projections at local level are unavailable Climate change is viewed as a long-term problem, not relevant to current decisions Airports need to consider climate change because: Air transport is highly vulnerable to the types of weather-related stresses that will be exacerbated by global climate change Climate change could threaten airport infrastructure in some locations Climate change could threaten key supplies and services airports rely on Some climate changes are already occurring Airport infrastructure is a long-term investment While future climate changes are uncertain, scenarios and bounding can help identify potential risks Avoid decisions that are maladaptive 3

4 Introduction The planning challenges presented by climate change can seem daunting time horizons are long, financial stakes are high, and information about future conditions is imperfect But in reality, airports undertake planning including developing Master Plans under similar conditions all the time The variables are different, but much of the information and some of the analytical techniques required are similar In designing adaptation strategies, the key is in recognizing threats at an early stage and identifying appropriate responses 4

5 Mitigation vs. Adaptation Airport Activity aircraft, GSE, ground access, facilities GHG Emissions CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O, halons Mitigation Strategies: GHG Emissions Reduction Changes to Climate sea level, temperature, precipitation, storms Impacts on Airports infrastructure, operations, suppliers, services, travel demand Climate Change Preparation and Adaptation 5

6 State Climate Actions Plans - Mitigation 39 states have developed or are developing a climate mitigation plan Plans propose specific policies and programs for consideration by the state legislature or implementation by state agency Stakeholder groups convened to develop policies aimed at meeting state emission goals Source: Pew Center on Global Climate Change, online. 6

7 State Climate Actions Plans - Adaptation Only 6 states are developing climate change adaptation plans 7

8 How will Climate Change Manifest? Level of Uncertainty Probability of Occurrence Sea level rise Virtually certain 99 % Temperature changes Decreases in very cold days Virtually certain 99 % Increases in Arctic temperatures Virtually certain 99 % Later onset of seasonal freeze, earlier onset of seasonal thaw Virtually certain 99 % Increases in very hot days and heat waves Very likely 90 % Precipitation Increases in intense precipitation events Very likely 90 % Increases in drought conditions for some regions Likely 66 % Changes in seasonal precipitation and flooding patterns Likely 66 % Less certainty Storms Increases in hurricane intensity Likely 66 % Increased intensity of cold-season storms, with increases in Likely 66 % winds, waves and storm surges IPCC Summary for Policymakers. In Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Local impacts more important than global averages 8

9 Where are the Risks for Airports? The Risk Disk BROADER NETWORK other transport modes VALUE CHAIN demand for air travel gov t supplied services aircraft and vehicles CORE OPERATIONS Physical assets, operations fuel and fuel prices supply chains public/private electric, communication, and other utilities Pew Center for Global Climate Change. Adapting to Climate Change: A Business Approach. April Prepared by ICF International. 9

10 Where are the Risks for Airports? The Risk Disk helps conceptualize ways in which the physical risks of climate change could affect airports Core Operations Climate change have direct effects on airport assets and operating conditions Airfield and terminal facilities; ground transport facilities; and airport support facilities Airport procedures; O&M costs; and labor management could also be affected Value Chain Climate change can affect critical inputs or demand for airport services Could contribute to fuel price volatility or disrupt access to fuel supplies Could alter preferred winter or summer tourist destinations Broader Operating Network Climate change can affect public or private services airports rely on Drought conditions could limit access to potable water, Severe storm events can disrupt communications systems, interrupt electricity supply, interfere with access to other transport modes 10

11 What Steps Should Airports Take? 1. Identify critical concerns Some may be obvious Others might not be obvious (risk disk) 2. Screen risks 3. If needed, full risk assessment and possible action Uncertainty and lack of local projections doesn t mean climate change should be ignored Climate scenarios can be developed using trends, projection extremes Regional projections may improve in future Consider uncertainty (probability) with potential consequences (magnitude) 11

12 A Framework for Integrating Climate Change Impacts into Airport Planning 1 - Risk Screening 2 - Risk Assessment 3 - Risk Management Identify potential impacts and priorities for adaptation planning 12

13 Screening for Climate Impacts The risk screening process is used to identify and prioritize adaptation needs and opportunities The goal of screening is to classify climate change risks into one of three categories: Category 1: Potentially significant climate risks that need to be managed in the short term Category 2: Potential climate vulnerabilities that need to be monitored and reassessed over the long term Category 3: Climate risks are not significant no further analysis required Category 1 risks may require in-depth assessment and development of risk management strategies 13

14 Risk Screening Process 14

15 A Framework for Integrating Climate Change Impacts into Airport Planning 1 - Risk Screening 2 - Risk Assessment 3 - Risk Management Identify potential impacts and priorities for adaptation planning Undertake risk assessment of Category 1 risks and monitor Category 2 15

16 Risk Assessment & Risk Management For Category 1 risks, a complete financial Risk Assessment should be undertaken The assessment should be structured to both: Reveal the magnitude of the risks your airport is facing, and Provide sufficient information on the adaptation alternatives available to: Mitigate those risks Allow for informed choices about which if any measures to implement. 16

17 A Framework for Integrating Climate Change Impacts into Decision Making 1 - Risk Screening 2 - Risk Assessment 3 - Risk Management Identify potential impacts and priorities for adaptation planning Assess the effects of stressors to inform management decisions Take action to reduce impacts or exploit beneficial opportunities 17

18 Risk Management The final step in the framework is Risk Management the selection and implementation of adaptation strategies. For Category 1 risks, many of the risk management strategies could have implications for airport assets that will be upgraded or developed for modernization or expansion plans. Alternatively, risk assessment might indicate the need to make additional investments in airport assets and thus could be a catalyst for initiating the Master Planning process. However, for some Category 1 risks, the primary adaptation option might only require changes in practices e.g., the timing of maintenance on airport equipment. Include climate change response in Master Plan process. 18

19 Sea Level Rise DOT Study 59 cm (2 ft) rise LGA Queens & Brooklyn, NY JFK The Potential Impacts of Global Sea Level Rise on Transportation Infrastructure. U.S. DOT Center for Climate Change and Environmental Forecasting Prepared by ICF International. 19

20 Sea Level Rise Potential Implications for Airports in Coastal Zones Impact: Flooding of runways Potential responses: Strengthen/raise dikes, retaining walls Consider risk when planning new runways Impact: Flooding of buildings, roads, utilities Potential responses: Levees/walls Improve drainage/pumping Raise facility Redundant systems Impact: Disruption to fuel supply and storage 20

21 Precipitation Regional Differences Generally, the tropics will likely receive less rain (orange), while The polar regions will receive more precipitation (green). Source: 2007 IPCC WG1 AR-4 White areas fewer than 2/3 of the climate models agree on how precipitation will change. Stippled areas more than 90% of the models agree. 21

22 Precipitation and Storms Potential Implications Impact: Increased stormwater runoff Potential responses: Upgrade storm water systems, Consider risk when developing/expanding facilities Impact: Flood damage to runways and other infrastructure Potential responses: Install protective structures/dikes, Consider risk when developing/expanding facilities Impact: Wind damage to terminals, navigation equipment, signage Potential responses: Strengthen equipment, Install redundant systems Impact: Disruption of services supplied to airports (e.g., electricity, communications) Potential responses: Redundant systems, Backups Impact: Disruption of ground access Impact: Increased air traffic delays due to storm systems 22

23 Temperature Change Source: NASA Earth Observatory, based on IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007) 23

24 Temperature Change Potential Implications Impact: Reduced aircraft lift Potential response: Payload/stage length limitations Potential response: Longer runways Impact: Greater need for ground cooling Potential response: Upgrade gate-based cooling systems Impact: Thermal expansion of bridges and pavement Potential response: Increased maintenance Impact: Reduced need for de-icing, snow removal Impact: Changes in demand for air travel Impact: Worsening of local air quality (ozone) 24

25 Thank you! For more information: David Ernst ICF International Randy Freed ICF International