Summary - The Challenge to European Refining Posed by the Rise of US Unconventionals Scottish Oil Club

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Laurence Hodge
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1 Summary - The Challenge to European Refining Posed by the Rise of US Unconventionals Scottish Oil Club November 2014

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2 About us We are a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries We use a foundation of robust proprietary data and models to analyse, value and advise on assets, companies and markets. We have been a trusted source of knowledge for over 40 years and now employ over 950 professionals in 25 offices around the world Our clients include all the major energy, metals and mining companies, as well as governments, investment banks and institutional investors Our insight helps our clients to identify new opportunities, define strategy and improve their performance 2

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3 Wood Mackenzie Business Model: Wood Mackenzie s offerings are developed in response to clients needs The business is founded on the quality of our proprietary information and the knowledge of our dedicated sector teams We offer tailored solutions of research or consulting or a combination of the two depending on client needs Research subscriptions are available on an annual or multi-year basis and delivered via our client web portal Our consulting offerings are designed to address individual client issues, with multiclient studies providing solutions to groups of clients facing similar issues 3

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4 Our global presence Located close to clients and industry contacts Connected to the markets we cover Sharing knowledge and ideas across regions and sectors Providing global understanding with detailed regional knowledge 4

5 Our Refining & Chemicals research and consulting reflects a uniquely integrated view Infrastructure Data and Outlooks Short & Long Term Services Asset Profiles & Cost Models Petchems Feeds Petrochemicals Services Regional Olefins & Aromatics Markets Balances Product Markets Service NGL Service Price Forecasts Sectoral Demand Specifications Investments Infrastructure Prices & Margins Demand Supply Trade Flows Supply from 220+ Drilling Plays Individual Analysis by Species Net Cash Margin Profiles/ Metrics Transactions Source: Wood Mackenzie 5 North American Gas services Upstream Oil services PetroPlan PetroPlan Economics Refinery Evaluation Model

6 Crude oil outlook and US Unconventionals

7 The US has a massive opportunity set of unconventional plays, with many sitting in established, mature basins The Main US Lower 48 Plays Step-change in the materiality of the Eagle Ford 7 Wood Mackenzie

8 Tight oil footprint continues to expand through 2020 Bakken Production grows from 1 million b/d in 2014 to 1.7 million b/d in 2020 PADD 4: Rocky Mountain PADD 5: West Coast Niobrara PADD 2: Midwest Northeast Monterey Mid Continent PADD 1: East Coast 8 Permian Production grows from 0.3 million b/d in 2014 to 0.9 million b/d in 2020 Note: scale of bubble reflects relative contribution to US tight oil volumes PADD 3: Gulf Coast Other Gulf Coast Eagle Ford Production grows from 1.3 million b/d in 2014 to 1.9 million b/d in production 2020 production

9 ..and so is a key part of non-opec supply growth Year-on-year non-opec total liquids production growth Gains in US tight oil average almost 390,000 b/d per year between now and US tight oil contributes 50% of non-opec growth in 2015 and more than 25% in subsequent years. Source: Wood Mackenzie 9

10 Change in OPEC crude oil capacity by country and for NGLs shows the reliance on Iraq Change in total from 2013 to 2020 in million b/d Source: Wood Mackenzie 10

11 Growth trajectories in transport set the trend for OECD vs non-oecd. Levels are currently even, but non-oecd is 7 Mb/d higher by 2020 OECD oil demand by sector Non-OECD oil demand by sector 60 Transport Petchem Res/Comm Industry Other 60 Transport Petchem Res/Comm Industry Other Oil Demand, million b/d Oil Demand, million b/d Source: IEA; Forecast Wood Mackenzie 11

12 Growth in US tight oil has offset the additional losses helping retain Brent oil price stability through to end 2014 US tight oil growth keeping pace with rise in losses Year-on-year change in US tight oil and outages '000 b/d 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 Emerging/New Plays Other Established Bone Springs/Wolfcamp Niobrara Eagle Ford Bakken/Three Forks Glbal unplanned (visible) outages Y-o-y change ('000 b/d) 1,600 1, Unplanned outages US tight oil Source: Wood Mackenzie YTD Cumulative growth/decline since ,000 1, Cumulative ('000 b/d) 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Unplanned outages US tight oil Source: Wood Mackenzie 2008 Base Year YTD Source: Wood Mackenzie 12

13 OPEC spare capacity cushion keeps a cap on price gains this decade provided that our political risk assumptions work out Call on OPEC crude compared with our forecast of OPEC crude oil productive capacity Source: Wood Mackenzie 13

14 Conclusions Without US oil production growth and Canadian success with oil sands, non-opec would see little increase from now to 2020 US tight oil boom has helped keep a lid on global prices in view of nearly continuous supply outages of varying impact outside the US since 2011 Economic growth, a rising middle class and the quest for personal mobility support non- OECD oil demand growth Weak oil demand growth and/or a supply surge, such as gains in Libya s production, put downward pressure on Brent prices US tight oil creates a relatively quick reacting price floor. Brent priced at $80 per barrel real would affect around 1 million bpd of new US tight oil production over the coming years 14

15 Implications for European refining

16 Overcapacity continues to pressure refining utilisation rates Europe is most impacted Annual Global Supply/Demand Outlook Average Refinery Utilisation by Region Mb/d 95% 90% Asia Pacific Greater Europe North America Average refinery utilisation 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% New Refineries Capacity Expansions Non Ref Sup growth Demand growth 60% 55% Source: Wood Mackenzie 16

17 USGC refiners have a strong competitive advantage from cheap natural gas and crude LLS-Brent Differential Regional Spot Gas Prices Crude Price Differential $/bbl Real (2014). US$/mmBtu, Real (2014) LLS-Brent (Real) Henry Hub NBP Source:history Argus, forecast Wood Mackenzie Source: Argus, Datastream, NYMEX, Wood Mackenzie 17

18 Investments in new distillation capacity are emerging in the US. Product exports continue to rise Cumulative US Refining Capacity Investments in kb/d ( ) US Product Balances 18.7 Previous Year Capacity Expansion New Creep 3.0 LPG Naphtha Gasoline Jet/Kerosene Diesel/Gasoil Fuel Oil Surplus 2.5 Capacity (Mb/d) Balances (million b/d) Deficit Source: Wood Mackenzie 18

19 The European gasoline surplus experiences increasing competition with no obvious new home Cumulative Change in Gasoline Balances European Gasoline Surplus 600 Gasoline Export Markets* US PADDs II, III, IV & VI 1,000 Surplus - constant supply Surplus - forecast kb/d kb/d * Latin America, Mexico, East Canada, US PADD I, West Africa, non-euro Med, Middle East Source: Wood Mackenzie 19

20 Excess refining capacity in Europe will take the form of closures and run cuts 20 Crude runs reacted to the fall in demand, with capacity rationalisation following after 2 years Competitive pressures from other regions, combined with structural product imbalances reduces crude runs further 90% 19 85% % Mb/d 16 75% Demand Crude Runs Capacity Average Utilisation 1.7 Mb/d 70% 65% 60% Source: Wood Mackenzie 20

21 Summary The Atlantic Basin gasoline market is set to decline in the medium term It will become increasingly competitive, with additional supply available from USGC refiners enjoying access to cheap energy and discounted crude Average European coastal refineries are at a major competitive disadvantage and will be forced to reduce runs That reduction in European crude runs leaves a very large and growing diesel deficit in Europe, over which refiners in the US, Russia, Middle East and Asia will compete Export refiners in all regions will be closely watching developments in European middle distillate demand 21

22 Disclaimer Strictly Private & Confidential This report has been prepared by Wood Mackenzie Limited. The report is intended solely for the attendees at the Scottish Oil Club November 2014 meeting and its contents and conclusions are confidential and may not be disclosed to any other persons or companies without Wood Mackenzie s prior written permission. The information upon which this report is based has either been supplied to us or comes from our own experience, knowledge and databases. The opinions expressed in this report are those of Wood Mackenzie. They have been arrived at following careful consideration and enquiry but we do not guarantee their fairness, completeness or accuracy. The opinions, as of this date, are subject to change. We do not accept any liability for your reliance upon them. 22

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