The changing Pacific: A strategic collaboration for assessing climate impacts & developing policy for adaptation
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1 The changing Pacific: A strategic collaboration for assessing climate impacts & developing policy for adaptation Tom Okey Pew Fellows Program in Marine Conservation Bamfield Marine Sciences Centre University of Victoria School of Environmental Studies
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3 General questions Responsiveness of science? What do we know about impacts? How can we measure change? How can we predict change? What policies and management strategies will work? (Objectives?)
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6 Question for you What other indicators could I use? Changes in budgets? Agency directives? Presentations at PICES? Suggestions: tokey@bms.bc.ca
7 Climate impacts framework Imaginative synthesis for policy / management solutions Assessment - Known impacts - Vulnerabilities Innovative tools for prediction & strategy identification
8 Proposal to NCEAS Climate change impacts on Pacific marine ecosystems: Coordinated marine science and policy development WG1 Known impacts, indicators, vulnerabilities WG2 Innovative analytical approaches WG3 Imaginative synthesis for solutions Building on collaborations (PICES,( CLIOTOP, BEST, etc) Pacific-wide synthesis Special issue of peer-reviewed reviewed journal Book for broader general public Positive reviews, but too big and need better connection to the policy solutions part
9 Effects of Climate Change on the World s s Oceans Gijon, Spain, May Workshop 2: From the physical to the ecological: Screening approaches and linking Global Climate Model output with ecosystem and population models
10 Climate impacts framework Imaginative synthesis for policy / management solutions Assessment - Known impacts - Vulnerabilities Innovative tools for prediction & strategy identification
11 PICES structure
12 Questions for you Is this suggested approach valuable? How should this interface with PICES? What, in your view, is really needed?
13 Assess the current knowledge of the ecological impacts of climate change on Pacific Ocean ecosystems, identify useful marine ecological indicators of climate change, and assess vulnerability ASSESSMENT
14 Future ocean changes Physical: Temperature (+) Sea ice cover (-) Sea level (+) Hydrological cycle (intensified) Turbidity (+ and -) Light supply (+ and -) Salinity (+ and -) Stratification (+) Winds (+ and -) Storm event intensification Upwelling (+ and -) Currents (e.g., ocean conveyor belt) Chemical: ph(-) Aragonite saturation (-) Oxygen (-) Nutrients (+ and -) Biological: Changes in primary production Population range shifts Extirpations and extinctions Community composition Changes in species interactions Decreased community resilience Today, biological examples
15 Temperature to model variation
16 High vulnerability Distribution (8) Phenology (2) Physiology (5) Community-level (7)
17 5 Estimating vulnerability quantitatively Biological Anthropogenic Regional characteristic (after Nelson et al 2005) 0 Northern Domain North Eastern Domain North Western Domain Western Central Domain Eastern Central Domain South Western Domain South Eastern Domain Fishing Climate change
18 Vulnerability & its components Exposure (E) Potential impact Sensitivity (S) Vulnerability (Allen Report 2005) Adaptive capacity (AC) Component Dimension Indicator Vulnerabilit Biological Threatened, endangered and protected (TEP) species S Number of endemic demersal slope fish S % introduced species per port S TEP uniqueness S Regional Area (square degrees) S Foundational area (% < 50 m depth) S Poleward boundedness S Climate % change in sea surface temperature E Change % change in temperature at 500 m depth E % change in mixed layer depth E % change in incident solar radiation E % change in surface currents E % change in surface winds E Fishing Fisheries gear impact habitat AC Fisheries gear impact bycatch AC Overexploited fisheries AC Number of fisheries hours AC Number of AFMA fisheries AC Recreational fishing index (1000 days per degree) AC Other Population within 200km of coast (1996) AC Anthropogenic Organic compounds AC Chemical compounds AC Heavy metals AC Chemical dumps AC Ship visits AC Oil and gas wells AC Seismic surveys AC Vulnerability: Potential to be damaged or altered
19 Climate Change Dimension
20 Other dimensions Biological Fishing Regional Other anthropogenic
21 Overall Vulnerability marine life East-central most vulnerable with respect to climate change indicators (SST, temp 500m & surface winds) and biological indicators (TEP & TEP uniqueness) as well as overall exposure. South-east most vulnerable with respect to fishing indicators (overexploited fisheries, number of fisheries hours & number of AFMA fisheries) and other anthropogenic indicators (heavy metals & chemical dumps) South-west least vulnerable with respect to overall exposure and to climate change indicators
22 Using MEOW WWF regions -5 Locations Latitude Longitude
23 Choosing case studies in N Pacific
24 Collaboration beyond western science Species Trend Location Observer sas + Long Beach, Pavlof, Volcano Bay Randy Dushkin Jr. sas + Popof Islands Chris Gundersen sas = King Cove Melvin Koso Jr. sas + south Alaska Peninsula Steve Hakala sas & sls + Sand Point Dale Peders en sas & sls + Shumagin Island & Bird Island Henry Nielsen Sr. sas & sls + area M Peter Gronborak sas & sls + Shumigan Islands David O. Osterback sas & sls + Shumigan Islands Glen Gardner Jr. sas & sls + Shumigan Islands Brad Deering sls + Akun Bay and Akun Straight Darryl Pelkey sls + Umga Island & Kupreanof Andrew Jacobsen sls & spd + St. George Island Rodney Lekauof spd = 3 miles from Atka Julian Thompson spd + Akun Island and Whale Bluff Antone Shelikoff
25 Collaboration beyond western science Salmon sharks: perceived peaks and decline 13 fishermen 344 combined years maximum 44 years mean and median 26 years
26 Questions for you Should such approaches be applied in the North Pacific? Should they be part of integrated ecosystem assessments?
27 Linking global climate model output with ecosystem models INNOVATIVE TOOLS
28 Ecopath with Ecosim
29 Networks of ecosystem models
30 Networks of ecosystem models Australia
31 Temperature to model variation
32 Eastern tropical Pacific Watters et al 2003 Auxis spp. Large phytoplankton
33 Northwest Hawaiian Islands Polovina 2005
34 Network indicators in NE Pacific Heymans et al. 2007
35 Reconstructing past ecosystem changes Heymans et al. 2007
36 Dynamic prediction of indicators Total system throughput Average mutual information Ascendency Entropy Redundancy Finn Cycling Index Heymans et al. 2007
37 Other ecosystem models Atlantis Bioclimatic envelope models Approaches discussed in PICES task teams CFAME and MODEL Elements of the new FUTURE initiative? PewTURE?
38 Finding workable management strategies and policies in the context of identified objectives and available approaches to assessment & predictionp IMAGINATIVE SYNTHESIS FOR POLICY SOLUTIONS
39 Policy working group What is the best way? Size and composition? Interface with the science groups? Best kind of setting?
40 Climate impacts framework Imaginative synthesis for policy / management solutions Assessment - Known impacts - Vulnerabilities Innovative tools for prediction & strategy identification
41 Acknowledgements Alistair Hobday Elvira Poloczanska Anthony Richardson Thomas Kunz Bruce Wright Mike Brubaker Jeff Polovina George Watters Shelia Heymans Aleut communities Alaska fishermen John Volpe Suggestions:
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