Two-region UK MARKAL Model Documentation

Transcription

1 Two-region UK MARKAL Model Documentation Gabrial Anandarajah and Will McDowall UCL Energy Institute, University College London 14 Upper Woburn Place, London, WC1H 0NN, United Kingdom 1 Introduction Two Region UK MARKAL (2R UK MARKAL) has been developed by breaking out Scotland from the UK from the single region national UK MARKAL model, so that Scotland (SCT) and rest of the UK (RUK) are defined as the two regions in UK2R MARKAL. Each region (SCT, RUK) has its own energy system including all essential current and future energy technologies, from primary energy supply to the processing, conversion, transport, distribution of energy carriers and ultimately to end-use sectors and energy-service demands. Inter-region trade of electricity, coal, gas, oil and its products are allowed. The 2R UK MARKAL can be used to model energy and climate policies at both regional (for individual regions) and the UK levels. Most of the policies modelled in the UK MARKAL model are also modelled in the 2R UK MARKAL model. That is, existing policies include the Renewable Obligation (RO) rising to 15% by 2015 and remaining in place until 2027, Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation (RTFO) set at 5% from 2020, the energy efficiency commitment, climate change levy, and so on. The 2R UK MARKAL is calibrated in its base year (2000) to data (for SCT and RUK) of resource supplies, energy consumption, electricity output, installed technology capacity and CO 2 emissions. The model then optimises via 5-year increments through to Since the single region UK MARKAL is well documented (Kannan et al., 2007) and published in different journals (Strachan and Kannan (2008), Anandarajah and Strachan (2010)), this documentation discusses the development of 2R MARKAL model and presents data and assumption for Scotland. Two region UK MARKAL model has been developed under United Kingdom Sustainable Hydrogen Energy Consortium (UKSHE) Plus project.

2 2 Data and assumptions 2.1 Final consumption The base year (2000) for the single region UK MARKAL model was calibrated to the DUKES (2006) data. Final energy consumption of the both regions in UK2R MARKAL has been calibrated to the base year (2000) to actual data for each energy-service demand by fuel types. Transport sector energy consumptions by fuel and mode for the SCT region is taken from BERR (2008). Fuel consumption share of Scotland is used to calculate the fractional share of transport services demand for Scotland. Scotland s share of transport sector energy consumption varies among the modes: shares of bus, car-petrol, car-diesel, motorcycle, heavy good vehicles, light good vehicle demand are 10.5%, 8.0%, 7.9%, 5.5%, 7.8%, and 8.5% respectively. Residential sector data is taken from BRE domestic energy fact file (BRE, 2008), which reports 9% of the UK households are in Scotland. Therefore, it is assumed 9% of the energyservice demands (electrical appliances demand and gas appliances demand) in the UK MARKAL model is for Scotland. Gas and electricity consumption data for Scotland and the UK (data from Energy Trend 2003) shows that about 8.23% of the gas and 10.03% electricity is consumed in Scotland, i.e., about 9% of total (gas and electricity) is consumed in Scotland. Therefore, space and water heating demand for Scotland is assumed to be 9% of the UK MARKAL energy service demand and the electricity and gas ratio in the supply is maintained for the base year Services sector data is taken from Scottish Energy Study (2006) which reports Scotland s share of UK final consumption as 11.6%. Agriculture sector energy consumption data is taken from DUKES data on regional energy consumption (non-gas and non-electricity) (DECC 2008). Scotland consumes 18% of petroleum demand for agriculture in the UK. Industry Sector data is taken from Scottish Energy Study (2006). Scotland s share of final consumption for chemical, Iron and steel, non-ferrous, pulp & paper and other industry is 8.0%, 0.7%, 1.0%, 20.2% and 9.9% respectively. Fuel mix in each industry sub-sector, to which final consumption is calibrated, is presented in Table 1. Table 1 Share of industry sub-sector in Scottish final consumption by fuel types Industry sub- Coal Oil Natural gas Electricity

3 sector Chemical Non-ferrous Pulp and paper Iron and steel Other industry 11.4% 0.4% 8.5% 0.4% 79.1% 1.9% 0.1% 4.8% 1.0% 92.2% 27.3% 0.1% 16.4% 2.2% 54.0% 9.1% 0.1% 22.6% 1.6% 66.7% 2.2 Installed capacity Scotland has surplus installed capacity which is about 9.5GW in Excess generation is exported to England and Northern Ireland. Existing installed capacity and electricity generation data for Scotland is taken from Scottish Energy Study (2006) for gas, coal and nuclear plants (Table 2). Retirement of the existing capacity over the years is also modelled based on the retirement data in Scottish Energy Studies. Installed capacities for renewables (wind, landfill gas, bio-fuels) are taken from BERR (2009). Table 2 Installed capacity in Scotland Station Type Capacity (MW) Chapelcross Cockenzie Hunterston B Longannet Peterhead Torness Several Several Total Nuclear Coal Nuclear Coal Gas Nuclear Hydro Wind Wind resource data Since the off-shore wind is expected to be the main future contributor to renewable electricity supplies, a detailed spatial representation of off-shore wind resource data has been used in UK2R MARKAL. Off-shore wind resource data is divided into different groups on the basis of distance from the shore and then further grouped into geographical regions. The full data set and assumptions are available in Dalvit, G. (2009). Each group covers a range of 30 km of distance from the shore; over 120 km of distance has been considered as a unique group. The groups have been further subdivided into different zones on geographical basis as shown in Figure 1. On the base of the assumptions (representing the economic or technical issues) the annual resource availability in each zone is calculated. A total capacity of 416 GW is

4 available at minimum wind speed of 9 m/s, water depth of up to 50 m and distance from the shore up to 200 km, excluding shipping line and conservation areas. On-shore wind resource data is taken from Enviros (2005) which reports UK onshore wind capacity is about 20GW of which 8.66 GW is available in Scotland. Figure 1. Spatial UK wind resource data 2.4 Biomass resource Biomass and waste resource availability in Scotland is taken from Scotland s Renewable Resource (SRR, 2001) and Anderson et al. (2005). Reported values for some resources are different in these two studies. Based on the UK MARKAL data and the data reported in different studies, Scottish share on UK biomass resources are assumed as shown in Figure 2. Availability of energy crops and forest residue are relatively high in Scotland when comparing land area for the two regions.

5 Energy crops Forest residue Landfill gas Poultary Rape seed Sewage gas Animal slurry Straw Wheat Wood (Ind. by product) Solid waste 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Figure 2. Spatial UK wind resource data 3 Treatment of energy and emissions in the UK Continental Shelf A considerable portion of the UK s oil and gas resources are extracted offshore, from the UK Continental Shelf. Unlike the territorial waters, which extend 12 nautical miles from the coast of each constituent nation, the UK Continental Shelf is not a part of any constituent nation of the UK, but rather is an exclusive economic zone for the UK as a whole. For this work, UK Continental Shelf activities, and their associated emissions, were allocated to either Scotland or the rest of the UK, based on the shares outlined in the Scottish Energy Study (2006). Similarly, offshore renewables that lie outside the limit of the territorial waters of any constituent nation of the UK are allocated to either Scotland or the rest of the UK. References Anandarajah G., and N. Strachan (2010) Interactions and Implications of Renewable and Climate Change Policy on UK Energy Scenarios, Energy Policy, 38, issue 11, pp Strachan N., Kannan R Hybrid Modelling of Long-Term Carbon Reduction Scenarios for the UK, Energy Economics. 30 (6): Kannan R., Strachan N., Pye S., Anandarajah, G., Balta-Ozkan N UK MARKAL model documentation. BERR (2008). experimental regional and local authority transport fuel consumption, BERR, London, 2008.

6 BRE (2008). Domestic Energy Fact File, Department for Energy and Climate Change, DECC, Estimates of non gas, non electricity and non road transport fuels at regional and local authority level, Publication URN 08/P2c, October Scottish Energy Study (2006). Volume 1: Energy in Scotland: Supply and demand, Scottish Executive, Scotland, 2006 Dalvit, G. (2009) UK Offshore Wind Source, UCL Energy Institute. Enviros (2005), The Cost of Supplying Renewable Energy, DTI, London, Andersen, R. S., Towers, T, Smith, P Asesing the Potential of Biomass Energy to Contribute to Scotland's Renewable Energy Needs, Biomass and Bioenergy 29, pp