Beyond Climate Change: No Global Environmental Crisis Left Behind. Carlos M. Duarte CSIC Mallorca Spain

Transcription

1 Beyond Climate Change: No Global Environmental Crisis Left Behind Carlos M. Duarte CSIC Mallorca Spain International co-operation to address Global Challenges OECD, Paris, March 2009

2 Outline Climate change vs. Global Change Collision Trajectories Thresholds and Tipping Points Challenges for International Cooperation

3 Climate Change is recognized as a Global Threat receiving substantial political and public attention News in Mass Media (sample, Spain)

4 Causes Energy Use HIGH CO 2 EMISSIONS GREEN HOUSE EFFECT GLOBAL WARMING CLIMATE CHANGE

5 Is Energy the only Resources we Consume in Excess? Water Energy Use Essential Elements (N, P, Fe, etc.) Land Biodiversity Synthetic substances

6 Human Demands are Ovreshooting the Planet s Capacity Per capita resource use is growing (5 to 10 fold in 20 th Century) Per capita energy use (MW-h/year) Per capita water use (MW-h/year)

7 Número de personas (miles de millones) Rapid Growth of Human Population Estimates of the Earth s Carrying Capacity 2050 Water Arable land Food Hoy Humanity is about to enter a new period of limited Earth s capacity to support further population growth Data Pop. Ref. Bureau y de NU

8 Population Growth X Increase in per capita Resource Use Increase in Resource use Global Change

9 Global Change Impact of human activity on the processes that govern the functioning of the Earth System. The term Change refers to the fact that the regulation of the functioning of the Earth System has now changed due to the introduction of control mechanisms technology that simply did not exist over most of the Earth s history (e.g. CFC s and Ozone; Haber reaction and the N cycle, etc.).

10 Population Land Used CO2 Water use GDP Forest loss Energy Nitrogen flux The risks involved are not the sum of those derived from the individual trajectories but those resulting from the interaction of multiple interacting trajectories The trajectories of growing pressure on natural resources are in a collision course

11 Resource use Global Changes Impacts Biodiversity Loss Loss of ecosystem services and resilience Climate Change Ozone loss UV increase Diseases Food and water insecutiry Economic loss CFC s Erosion of Environmental Basis to well being

12 Resource use Energy Global Changes Climate Change Land Biodiversity Elements (N, P, Fe, etc.) Synthetic Chemicals

13 Biofuel use Climate Change Only Reduced CO2 Emissions Mitigation of Climate Change

14 Biofuel Use Energy Nitrogen - Global Change Reduced Emissions Biodiversity loss Increased Emissions Mitigation of Climate Change Water Land Pesticides and Herbicides Depleation of Water Resources Desertification Reduced water, soil and air quality Food insecurity Migration and Conflicts Povertry

15 Resource use Energy Global Changes Biodiversity Loss Impacts Loss of ecosystem services and resilience Water Climate Change Migration, Conflicts Land Biodiversity Changes in Water Cycling Desertification Deseases Food and water insecutiry Elements (N, P, Fe, etc.) Synthetic Chemicals UV increase Loss of air, soil and water quality Economic loss Erosion of Environmental Basis to well being

16 Ecosystem Response Ecosystem Response Smooth Response IPCC Extent of Climate Change Abrupt Response Threshold Extent of Climate Change The response of the Earth System to climate change may be smooth or abrupt depending on the functional relationships involved and the extent of interactions between components. Abrupt changes are expected for complex systems and are more likely when different trajectories enter in collision

17 Anomalía (º C) relativa a The rate of warming is rising IPCC (2007)

18 The rate of ice loss in the Arctic is accelerating Minimum Arctic ice extent (million Km 2 )

19 Abrupt Changes Earth System Understanding Social System Mitigating & Adapting Technology Engineering Social Sciences Geosciences Biosciences Ecosystem Doing Society: Innovation Governance Cooperation Communication Education

20 Time: Procastinating has a cost Every year that elapses without doing : * The trajectories of global crisis rise The risks of trespassing critical thresholds and tipping the system increases as the trajectories continue to rise. Options for adaptation and mitigation shrink while costs rise.

21 Dialog with Society Popular science Scientists Specialised journals Journalists and News Agencies Mass media Society Too long Unefffective Slow Prone to noise A new partnership toward effective communication between scientists and society

22 Science and Technology Challenges A new, encompassing Global Change Approach to the problem. Transdisciplinary Integration (from Geo to Social Sciences) requires new tools, concepts and structures. Global Integration and Regional Participation Scientific independence (clear separation between scientific evidence and politics) More effective and direct platforms to reach out and convey scientific results to society and its actors. Coordinate policies