Climate Change as a Security Risk

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "Climate Change as a Security Risk"

Julia Cain
6 years ago
Views:

Climate Change as a Security Risk Dirk Messner German

1 1 WISSENSCHAFTLICHER BEIRAT DER BUNDESREGIERUNG GLOBALE UMWELTVERÄNDERUNGEN Washington, March 31, 2008, Worldbank Climate Change as a Security Risk Dirk Messner German Development Institute German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU)

2 2 Human security Destabilization of countries and regions Radical Transformation of the Earth System New lines of conflicts and tensions globally Geopolitics of climate change

3 3 Main message Climate change could unite the international community, recognizing climate change as a threat to humankind... If it fails to do so, climate change will draw ever-deeper lines of division in international relations, triggering distributional conflicts over water, land, the management of migration, compensation payments between the countries mainly responible for climate change and those countries most affected by it`s destructive impacts...

4 4 Environmental Conflicts ( ): Causes and intensities

5 5 Old environmenatally driven versus climate driven conflicts Local Limited number of people affected Multicausal drivers Local distributional conflicts (water, land, forests et al.)... No challenge for international stability and security Local, crossboarder, subregional, global Many people affected Dito Distributional conflicts (local, crossborder, global) Overburdened governments, economies, societies: weak states under climate stress Large scale migration Global distributional conflicts: who pays the bill?... International security impacts Scale makes the difference

6 6 Climate Change... 5 plus world: Radical change of the Earth System! a) ice age - today, b) experiment for human mankind, c) Earth System A2 EU - Limit 2º B1?!

7 7 Global Warming regional impacts Figure SPM.6

8 8 Greenhouse Gases as Drivers of Climate Change

9 9 50 % reduction of GHG emissions needed until 2050

10 10

11 11 Mitigation as an investment in international stability... Avoiding unmanageable risks in the global earth system! Key actors in the furture: OECD, China/ India Other Latin America 2.9% Middle East 8.9% Africa 4.4% International navigation 0.7% Brazil 1.6% OECD North America 12.8% OECD Pacific 1.8% Other developing Asia 9.0% India 10.0% Projected Emissions growth bn t CO 2 = 55% OECD Europe 4.0% Russia 2.6% China 39.4% Other transition economies 1.8%

12 12 Dangerous climate change: impacts on societies Three Perspectives

13 13 First Perspective: Tipping Points in the Earth System Will societies be able to adopt?

14 14 Collapse of the Amazonian Forest: Radical transformations of eco-systems in very little time

15 15 WISSENSCHAFTLICHER BEIRAT DER BUNDESREGIERUNG GLOBALE UMWELTVERÄNDERUNGEN Second perspective Climate change driven conflict constellations: sectorial links between climate change, societal stress, conflict risks geography of climate driven conflict constellation how many people affected

16 16 WISSENSCHAFTLICHER BEIRAT DER BUNDESREGIERUNG GLOBALE UMWELTVERÄNDERUNGEN No automatism! Security impacts on societies and regions depend on: specific environmental stress caused by climate change ( local/ regional... warming, ecosystems, environmental damages) specific social vulnerabilities (rural poor, people in coastal areas etc.) socio-economic capacities and economic structure governance capacities regional cooperation/ conflict structures

17 17 Conflict constellation 1: Climate-induced decline in food production- Conflicts on arable land

18 18 Droughts in the A1B-Scenario Ensemble-Projections IPCC, 2007

19 19 Soil degradation & desertification (intensity and dynamic)

20 20 Source: Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences Min Temp ºC

21 21 Source: Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences Precipitation % Change

22 22 Conflict constellation 2: Climate-induced degradation of freshwater resources - conflicts on access to water

23 23 Access to Water (today)

24 24 Processes of desertification towards 2041/2070 (Hadley Centre)

25 25

26 26 Glaciers: Global Mass Balance World Glacier Monitoring Service

27 27 Glaciers in the Himalya: Importance for Water Supply... Many people affected: agriculture/ water UNEP 2007

28 28 Conflict constellation 3: climate-induced increase in storm and flood desasters - political instability/ economic crisis New Orleans

29 29 Hurricans Hurrikan-Energie (PDI) Meerestemperatur (August-Oktober) Globale Mitteltemperatur Atlantik Result: Hurriccan-Energy is correlated with the temperature of the oceans both driven by global warming (Emanuel, Nature 2005)

30 30 Hurricanes: intensities and patterns ( )

31 31

32 32 Sea level Rise 88 cm 70 cm 21 cm Tide Gauges 9 cm

33 33 Bay of Bengal and Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna- Bay

34 34 Conflict constellation 4: environmentallyinduced migration

35 35

36 36 Climate change as a multiplier of mechanisms that causes instability and conflicts Weak governance structures favour conflicts... Climate change is affecting many fragile states... and might overburden not yet weak governance systems Low income countries... High probability of violent conflicts: Climate change affects agriculture, water system... Creates economic problems for LDCs... Triggering conflict risks Spillover risks in conflict regions: climate change causes crossborder challenges (water shortages, migration etc.) Climate change aggravates or causes ressource-conflicts: land, water, forests etc. Political radicalization based on the drivers of climate change and victims of climate change argument

37 37 Climate Change - conflict constellations in world regions

38 38 The third Perspective Climate change impacts translating into international tensions, conflicts and geopolitical dynamics

39 39 Vulnerabilty towards climate change - New lines of conflict? g y g p p 2 Highest vulnerability towards climate change vs. largest CO2 emissions (from fossil fuel combustion and cement production, and including land use change, kg C per person and year from ) Largest per capita CO2 emitters Largest per capita emitters, and highest social and / or agro-economic vulnerability Highest social and CO / or2 agro-economic vulnerability Highest per social and CO / or2 agro-economic vulnerability Largest capita emitters, and highest social and / or agro-economic vulnerability Areas with highest ecological vulnerability

40 40 Overstreching the capacities of the global governance system destabilization Posible increase in the number of weak and fragile states Risks for the global economy (Stern Report) Growing distributional conflicts between the main drivers of climate change and the most affected (polluter pays principle; compensations) Triggering and intensification of migration Climate change undermining basic human rights (access to water, food): the new human rights debate... Legitimacy problems for the OECD (loosing soft power) Limits of classical security policy: Impacts of Tipping Points could be unmanagable

41 41 Geopolitical impacts of climate change Failure of Kopenhagen 2009 : tensions US EU China Developing world Global competition for energy and natural resources will redefine the relationship between security and economics Towards a low carbon economy and renewable energies a new map of strategic regions in the world: might diminish the significance of the middle east from oil to gas might add strategic relevance to Russia rapid global expansion of nuclear energy might trigger major proliferation problems growing importance of renewables (solar/ bioenergie) might create new regions of strategic significance (North Africa/ Solar)

42 42 WISSENSCHAFTLICHER BEIRAT DER BUNDESREGIERUNG GLOBALE UMWELTVERÄNDERUNGEN How to avoid dangerous climate change? 1. The negotiation challenge: Kopenhagen The innovation challenge: Towards a low carbon global economy... The man to the moon project of our times 3. The equity challenge: Who has to reduce how much? Who pays the bill? 4. The adaptation challenge: Manage the unavoidable

43 43 Low Carbon Economy Exemplary transformation path: it shows that the sustainable transformation of global energy systemy is technologically viable WBGU, 2004

44 44 Schematic diagram of possible CCS systems SRCCS Figure TS-1

45 45 Reducing GHG: global convergence 30 Emissions per capita (tco2eq./person) Annex I Global total Non-Annex I The Singh/ Merkel scenario

46 46 Towards 450 ppmv CO USA China MtCO 2 eq 6000 EU Convergence level: 2 3 tco 2 eq/cap India Japan Saudi Arabia Brazil

47 It is not important to predict the future, but to be prepared for the future. Perikles, BC 2007 Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik 47

TACKLING CLIMATE CHANGE: THE WAY FORWARD TO COPENHAGEN

TACKLING CLIMATE CHANGE: THE WAY FORWARD TO COPENHAGEN The Center for American Studies The Embassy of the United States of America Roma, February 17, 2009 Corrado Clini Director General Ministry for the