Full Technical Report: Environmental flows and point source emissions

Transcription

1 Full Technical Report: Environmental flows and point source emissions Author name: Evangelos Romas, Apostolos Tzimas Author organization: EMVIS Full Technical Report: Environmental flows and point source emissions

2 Summary The Special Secretariat for Water, being responsible for the implementation of the Water Framework Directive in Greece, needs to evaluate the efficacy, under climate change pressures, of regulatory measures imposed on local industry at the Asopos River area and climate-proof the quality of this important waterbody, economic growth and industrial sustainability of the area. The C3S SIS for Water has River Flow indicators that were the core data for evaluating the assimilative capacity of Asopos River under different scenarios regarding average flow conditions. Climate impact indicators, conveniently accessible, are free of the need for laborious processing. They cannot cover all aspects of local issues but, combined with local information, they are key-data for integrated climate change impact investigations. Current results, based on the use of the C3S SIS for water, indicate a small impact on the Emission Limit Values (ELVs) for industries in the Asopos area, associated with climate change, and higher regulatory compliance risks for some pollutants than others. These results support some of the aspects considered by the client in the decision making process concerning the environmental policy for the Asopos river. Full Technical Report: Environmental flows and point source emissions

3 Contents Introduction... 1 Step 1: Indicators of Hydrology in future climate... 2 Description:... 2 Results:... 2 Step 2: Local data of industrial activity... 3 Description:... 3 Results:... 3 Step 3: Socio-economic data and historical analysis... 4 Description:... 4 Results:... 4 Step 4: Water Quality Modelling... 6 Description:... 6 Results:... 6 Step 5: Adaptation Strategy Description: Results: Conclusion of Full Technical Report References Full Technical Report: Environmental flows and point source emissions

4 Introduction The Asopos River basin (see Figure 1) is located in central Greece, at the River Basin District of Eastern Sterea Ellada, covering an area of approximately 720 km 2. Its water bodies receive significant pressures both in terms of quantity and quality, mainly attributed to water abstraction for irrigation and to the significant industrial activity in the area, respectively. Due to its proximity to the capital, the industrial activity has grown during the last decades to reflect approximately 20% of the total national industrial production. While the environmental protection of the quality of Asopos is an important priority for Special Secretariat for Water, which is responsible for the implementation of the Water Framework Directive (WFD) in Greece, it is also very important for the local economy that the significant industrial sector continues to be viable and not strangled by hard-to-comply-with regulations. This fragile balance between environmental protection and sustainable economy is also exposed to climate change impacts. Ensuring environmental sustainability along with economic growth of local industry is a key goal of national and European planning and closely depends on the ability to adapt to future climate conditions. The Special Secretariat for Water (client) is interested in evaluating current regulatory measures (Emission Limit Values) imposed on local industry, under climate change pressures and climateproof the quality of this important waterbody, the economic growth and industrial sustainability. Figure 1. Study Area The Asopos River basin Full Technical Report: Environmental flows and point source emissions 1

5 Step 1: Indicators of Hydrology in future climate Description: The main hydrological input for the determination of the Emission Limit Values (ELVs) is the discharge of Asopos River, which is the receiver of effluent from various industries located in the area. Monthly averaged discharge values were downloaded from the SWICCA demonstrator for the reference period and two future climate change periods ( and hereafter referred to as 2020s and 2050s, respectively), for each one of the 11 different climatic scenarios simulated and for the three impact models, E-HYPE, Lisflood and VIC. Due to the large grid (about 50km x 50km) that is used in VIC, and the rectangular, smaller grid used in Lisflood, their discharge output is not considered representative for Asopos catchment. For that reason, the percentage change of discharge under climate change, resulting from VIC and Lisflood is used instead, in combination with E-HYPE s reference period discharge output to produce future discharge scenarios for VIC and Lisflood data. Asopos river basin is divided into two sub-basins according to E-HYPE discretization (see Fig.01). Results: According to the indicators from the demonstrator, the variation of the annual discharge of upper Asopos river Basin is not large and does not indicate a probable cause for significant changes in the assimilative capacity of the river. Regarding monthly discharges, Fig.2a shows that the summer months, especially July and August, present significantly lower discharges than the rest of the year, making them critical months for ELVs calculations. While the absolute discharge values may be debatable, the actual effect of climate change impact which is depicted on the percentage changes of the discharges, presented in Figs.2b and 2c, is not influenced by the actual absolute values. The climate change effect in these months discharges is not significant, taking into account the low flows during these months. The future projections are characterised by a rather large spread, while median values give a marginal decrease which is getting even smaller for the 2050s period, in comparison to 2020s, as shown in Figs.2b and 2c. Figure 2.Monthly discharges in Asopos upper basin: (a) discharge distribution for the summer period of , (b) change distribution for and (c) change distribution for Full Technical Report: Environmental flows and point source emissions 2

6 Step 2: Local data of industrial activity Description: A literature review about industrial activity in Asopos River Basin (e.g. NTUA 2009, LIFE CHARM Del.4.6), which is related directly to the river (e.g. effluent receiver or water source), has been undertaken and major pollutants have been identified. According to previous studies there are almost 450 industries located in the area. While this estimation may be lower than the real number of industries, it is considered that the majority of the large facilities associated with the most significant pressures have been listed. The number of industries that are discharging their effluent in Asopos River is 24. This number is quite small compared to the 106 industries with liquid waste that are using other type of receivers (groundwater, soil) for their effluent. However, insufficient data for a large number of industries, about 65%, did not allow for the determination of their activity, the quantity of effluent and the type of receiver. In order to account for these industries, a conservative approach is to use lower accepted values for the pollutants concentration than the Environmental Quality Standards (EQS), in order to establish a safety margin while estimating the assimilative capacity of the water body. For this reason, two scenarios are used regarding the highest accepted concentrations in the river body, assuming it: (a) equal to the EQS limit (Common Ministerial Decision Num 20488/ ) and (b) as the 50% of the EQS. The 24 identified industries are categorized into 6 sectors: food and drinks industry, textile manufacturing, manufacture of chemical products, manufacture of plastic, and manufacture of basic metals. Results: ELVs will be determined for 6 heavy metals namely Chromium (Cr), Cadmium (Cd), Copper (Cu), Lead (Pb), Nickel (Ni) and Zinc (Zn). Table 1 shows the correlation of industrial activities with presence of heavy metals in the liquid waste. Table 1. Correlation of activities and heavy metals in the liquid waste (source: WHO) Sector Pb Cu Zn Ni Cd Cr Food industry Drinks industry Textile Manufacture of Chemicals Manufacture of Plastic Manufacture of Metals However, according to available measurements conducted to treated waste water from various industries, it was found that heavy metals were present in the treated waste water of industries from all 6 industrial sectors, except for Cadmium which was not detected in effluent from industries related with manufacture of drinks. Following a conservative approach it was decided that Cu, Zn, Ni, Cd and Cr were associated with all (24) industries while Pb was associated with all industries except those belonging to drink manufacturing (22). Full Technical Report: Environmental flows and point source emissions 3

7 Step 3: Socio-economic data and historical analysis Description: The available scenarios of the C3S SIS for Water socioeconomic indicators for Gross Domestic Product (GDP), along with Land Use indicators were utilized in order to investigate the future development of the local industrial activity. The associations between hydrological indicators scenarios and GDP scenarios have been done based on the major assumptions lying behind the scenarios about future human activity evolution. Hydrological scenarios based on RCP2.6 were associated with GDP SSP1 and ECFIN convergence scenarios, hydrological scenarios based on RCP4.5 were associated with DGP SSP4 and ECFIN trend scenarios and hydrological scenarios based on RCP8.5 were associated with GDP SSP5 and Eurostat trend scenarios. Results: Figure 3 shows that the GDP expected change, relative to the reference period of 2015, follows the same trends for Asopos River basin and Athens greater area. Additionally the anticipated changes may reach up to significant increases, based on the scenario examined. Figure 3. GDP change relative to the reference period of 2015 according to the C3S SIS water relative indicators for: (a) Asopos River basin and (b) Athens greater area. A look at the Land Use expected changes of the Asopos River Basin, as presented in Figure 4, shows that industrial land use presents a small change and stagnancy during the period Figure 4. Land use change relative to the reference period of 2015 according to the Land Use indicators for the Asopos River basin. Taking into account the fact that the GDP indicator reflects much more aspects of the economy than just the evolution of industry, even if the latter is an important economic sector for a specific area, in combination with the fact that socioeconomic policies may change more quickly and unexpected than any climate Full Technical Report: Environmental flows and point source emissions 4

8 change, it was decided that a more qualitative approach should be followed in order to examine the impact of socio-economic changes in the study area. Based on the above logic, four scenarios were examined regarding the future industrial activity. The first scenario is based on the assumption that industrial activity in the area will remain the same and the distribution between industrial sectors will not change. This is combined with the 11 climate change scenarios regarding Asopos discharge for the 3 different time periods (reference period, 2020s and 2050s) and 3 different impact models. The other three scenarios consider a change in industry, compatible with the RCPs used in the climate change scenarios. In accordance, a 20% decrease in the future industrial activity in Asopos is combined with climate change scenarios with RCP2.6, a 20% increase combined with scenarios using RCP8.5, while scenarios with RCP4.5 are coupled with an unchanged industrial activity. These were used for the future time periods (2020s and 2050s). Full Technical Report: Environmental flows and point source emissions 5

9 Step 4: Water Quality Modelling Description: Based on the time period examined, the adopted scenarios for the industrial activity and the three impact models, 9 groups of scenarios were formed which are presented in Table 2. These scenarios where paired with 11 climate change scenarios according to the combinations described in previous section, as well as two scenarios for the EQS limit, yielding 226 scenarios in total for each pollutant. Table 2. Scenarios examined Groups Time period 1 Reference Base s Base s Base Socioeconomic scenario (industrial activity) s 20% decrease s Base s 20% increase s 20% decrease s Base s 20% increase Hydrological scenario (discharges) E-HYPE 11 scenarios (+ two EQS scenarios, 50% and 100%) E-HYPE, VIC, Lisflood 33 scenarios (+ two EQS scenarios, 50% and 100%) E-HYPE, VIC, Lisflood 33 scenarios (+ two EQS scenarios, 50% and 100%) E-HYPE, VIC, Lisflood 6 scenarios (RCP 2.6) (+ two EQS scenarios, 50% and 100%) E-HYPE, VIC, Lisflood 15 scenarios (RCP 4.5) (+ two EQS scenarios, 50% and 100%) E-HYPE, VIC, Lisflood 12 scenarios (RCP 8.5) (+ two EQS scenarios, 50% and 100%) E-HYPE, VIC, Lisflood 6 scenarios (RCP 2.6) (+ two EQS scenarios, 50% and 100%) E-HYPE, VIC, Lisflood 15 scenarios (RCP 4.5) (+ two EQS scenarios, 50% and 100%) E-HYPE, VIC, Lisflood 12 scenarios (RCP 8.5) (+ two EQS scenarios, 50% and 100%) The data from the scenarios of Table 2 along with the pollutant data derived for the local industry (see Step 2) were used as input in the water quality simulations which were undertaken with wpolis, water quality modelling tool (wpolis, see Figure 5) developed under the SWITCH-ON project ( and ELV values for each pollutant were calculated. Results: As presented in Fig.6a, the range of ELVs change in 2020s period ( ) is small for the groups climate change scenarios incorporating the assumption of no change in industrial activity (groups 1 to 3, Tab.1), while the mean and median is almost 0%. The same is valid for 2050s period ( ) with a slight larger range. If we consider changes in the range of ±10% as not significant, then for no change in industrial activity, climate change impact is marginal on the ELVs change, especially for the 2020s period where 87% of scenarios examined (42% + 45%) gave changes less than ±10%, as Fig.6b shows for climate change scenarios cases. If scenarios for a change in industry are taken into account (compatible with the RCPs used in the climate change scenarios, see previous section), then results present a larger spread and the Full Technical Report: Environmental flows and point source emissions 6

10 mean and median values show a slight decrease in the ELVs values (Fig.6a). This is better presented in Fig.6b, where for climate & industry scenarios RCP compatible (groups 4 to 9, Tab.1), 33% of scenarios present an ELV decrease more than 10% and 15% present an ELV increase more than 10%, for the period 2020s, while similar results are computed for 2050s. Figure 5. Testing of Emission Limit Values with wpolis developed under SWITCH-ON project (a) (b) Figure 6. Variation of all ELVs for climate change scenarios and time periods examined: (a) box chart and (b) % of scenarios examined per ELVs classchange. The effect of impact models (hydrological models) used on the ELVs predictions is presented in Fig.7. As seen there (Fig.7a), only E-HYPE results lead to decreased ELVs values, smaller than -10%, during the 2020s period. This effect declines for the 2050s period, where all three impact models lead to some scenarios with significantly decreased ELVs (Fig.7b). The incorporation of industry scenarios has a larger effect on ELVs than climate change does. However, it is not significant in terms of median values but it rather increases the spread of possible ELV values, as shown in Fig.6 and more detailed, in Fig.8 where changes of Chromium ELVs are presented for the two future time periods examined. As shown there, although the range of ELVs changes has slightly increased in Fig.8b, compared to the cases of Fig.8a, the median value remains almost the same. However, the slight drop of median ELV Full Technical Report: Environmental flows and point source emissions 7

11 change in the 2050s (Fig.8a), is not observed when industry scenarios are incorporated (Fig.8b). It is noted here that, since the methodology used is not fully matching the methodology used for the official, regulatory determination of ELVs and because river discharge values used may be debatable, the focus is given on the variation of ELVs and not its absolute values. Figure 7. Variation of all ELVs for climate change scenarios (industry scenarios not incorporated) for: (a) and (b) In general, the conclusions drawn for chromium, regarding the ELVs variation due to climate change and socioeconomic scenarios, are also valid for the rest of the metals examined, as shows the comparison between Chromium and Zink results in Figure 9. As shown there, the differences between the results for different metals indicates that for some pollutants the regulatory compliance risks are higher and detail evaluation would be probably needed. Figure 8. Variation of Chromium ELVs change for various climate change scenarios and time periods examined: (a) only climate change scenarios effect and (b) industry scenarios incorporated. Full Technical Report: Environmental flows and point source emissions 8

12 Figure 9. Comparison of variation of Chromium and Zinc ELV changes for climate change scenarios (industry scenarios not incorporated). Full Technical Report: Environmental flows and point source emissions 9

13 Step 5: Adaptation Strategy Description: The present case study is targeting policy and regulation changes related to restrictions imposed on effluent characteristics of industry. The results provide to the client part of the necessary data which along with environmental and socioeconomic impact data as well as the client s perspective, are used for the formation of preliminary plans regarding the adaptation policy which will be developed for the study area. The outcome of the present analysis has been communicated to the client through an iterative procedure towards a better understanding of the problem and its possible future scenarios. In order to better quantify the possible climate change impact to the study area, an effort to monetize climate change by associating adaptation to actual cost has been undertaken. For that purpose, data from an experimental work which investigated the cost of a management option under consideration, an end-ofline treatment facility for the removal of Chromium (LIFE CHARM: Chromium in Asopos Groundwater System: Remediation Technologies and Measures LIFE 10 ENV /GR/00601) were processed. Results: The processing of experimental data for Chromium removal led to correlations between the removal (%) achieved at an end-of-line treatment facility and the annual cost (including the initial economical investment for the construction of the process line). These correlations vary for different volume processing capabilities which were investigated in the LIFE CHARM project (Deliverables 10.1 and 10.2). A qualitative visualization of the extracted correlations is presented in Figure 10. There it is shown that for small required changes on the future ELVs and therefore small additional required treatment (with removal performance less than 60%), the annualised cost reaches a steady minimum. That is the case for the 33% of the scenarios which according to the analysis presented in Step 4, show a reduction in future ELVs greater than 10% (see Fig.6b). The annualised cost estimated based on this approach is about half a million euros. Due to small changes depicted in the results of Step 5, a more detailed investigation is required while analysis of climate impact should be rescheduled to follow advances in climate change data. This effort will be combined with in-river quality measurements. Figure 10. Qualitative visualisation of annualised cost change in relation to the Chromium removal (%) performance of an end-of-line treatment of discharges. Full Technical Report: Environmental flows and point source emissions 10

14 Conclusion of Full Technical Report The present analysis supports the Special Secretariat for Water (Greek Ministry of Environment and Energy) on investigating climate change impact on the water quality of Asopos River and specifically assessing the efficacy of regulatory measures (ELVs) imposed on local industry. The assimilative capacity of Asopos River has been investigated under different scenarios regarding average flow conditions and evolution of the local industrial activity while rough estimations of the cost for a specific adaptation option have been undertaken. The Emission Limit Values for the industry which were calculated under various climate change scenarios, for all pollutants examined, follow similar trends. The results indicate that the impact on the ELVs for industries in the Asopos area, associated with climate change, is small. Scenarios regarding the industrial activity evolution could have a larger effect on the ELVs. Further, it is inferred that regulatory compliance risks are higher for some pollutants than others. These results support some of the aspects considered by the client in the decision making process concerning the environmental policy for the Asopos River as well as the effort for maintaining the fragile balance between environmental protection and economic viability and sustainability of the significant industrial activity in the area. Because the anticipated changes that resulted are limited, more detailed analysis is required while analysis of climate impact should be rescheduled to follow advances in climate change data. This effort should be combined with in-river quality measurements. Full Technical Report: Environmental flows and point source emissions 11

15 References NTUA School of Chemical Engineering (2009). Integrated Management of Liquid Industrial Waste and Wastewater of the Greater Area of Oinofyta - Schimatriou, Ministry of Environment, Energy & Climate Change. LIFE CHARM, Programme of Measures for the Asopos river basin, Deliverables 10.1 and 10.2, Action 10, Chromium in Asopos Groundwater System: Remediation Technologies and Measures LIFE 10 ENV /GR/ LIFE CHARM, Report on the pollution load from point and non-point sources of chromium pollution in Asopos River Basin, Deliverable 4.6, Action 4, Chromium in Asopos Groundwater System: Remediation Technologies and Measures LIFE 10 ENV /GR/ Common Ministerial Decision Num 20488/ , Establishment of Environmental Quality Standards for the Asopos River and Emission Limit Values for Liquid Industrial Waste Emissions in the Asopos River Basin. Full Technical Report: Environmental flows and point source emissions 12