REDUCING VULNERABILITY TO EXTREME FLOODS

Transcription

1 REDUCING VULNERABILITY TO EXTREME FLOODS AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE DNIESTER RIVER BASIN Roman Corobov (Moldova); Alexei Ischuk (Ukraine); Lesya Nikolayeva (Zoi Environment Network) Core group on pilot projects, third meeting Global Network of basins working on climate change adaptation, first meeting Geneva, February 2013

2 DNIESTER BASIN: GEOGRAPHICAL LOCATION The River s length 1352 км, transboundary part 200 km: areа 72,100l km²;

3 MAIN AIM OF THE PROJECT: to reduce climate change risks, and specifically those from floods, by reducing vulnerability of both countries to expand and strengthen cooperative management of the Dniester River water in coping today s and likely future impacts of climate change on water resources and floods THE MOST IMPORTANT CHALLENGES REGARDING DNIESTER WATER MANAGEMENT IN THE FACE OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS lack of clear understanding of the concept of a river basin vulnerability uncertainty in the estimates of possible changes in the river stream flow and its extremes disregard of the Dniester s reservoirs operating rules in the interests of individual users that results in impairing the downstream ecosystems

4 CONCRETE RESULTS IN THE PAST YEAR 1. The concept of climate change vulnerability assessment, based on the character of current and future climate as well as on ecological, economic and social situation in the river basin, was fully realized. 2. Two-dimensional (2-D) modelling of the vulnerability to floods in the Upper Dniester 3. The results of one-dimensional modelling of floods in the Lower Dniester have been transformed in the flood zones that then were specified during field expeditions, with following mapping and description. 4. Beginning of automation of a monitoring system.

5 Adaptive capacity Sensitivity Vulnerability index VULNERABILITY OF THE DNIESTER BASIN TO CLIMATE CHANGE Ranging by vulnerability the Ukraine part of the basin Oblast S AP Range Vinnitsa Ivano-Frankovsk Lviv Odessa Ternopol Chmelnitsk Chernovtsi

6 Outputs of modeling 1-D MODELLING OF EXTREME FLOODS IN THE LOWER DNIESTER On-site evaluation of the most risk plots

7 Examples of the field trips results

8 THE LOWER DNIESTER VULNERABILITY TO THE FLOODS OF 1% PROBABILITY OF CURRENT AND FUTURE CLIMATE

9 THE MOST IMPORTANT OUTCOMES AS REGARD TO For the first time: TRANSBOUNDARY COOPERATION A joint teamwork of Ukrainian and Moldavian experts on the very important environmental issues - climate change and floods - was actually realised Problems of floods, linked to climate change and its impacts on Dniester water resources, were considered as a common transboundary concern A good basis was created for future transboundary cooperation in the efforts on climate change adaptation of the Dniester basin s natural and social systems.

10 THE MOST IMPORTANT CHALLENGES IN THE TROUNSBOUNDARY CONTEXT Development of common understanding of the concept of climate change vulnerability for a transboundary river basin Development of basin-level scenarios of likely climate change Transforming the projections of key climatic variables in the parameters of future Dniester river flow and floods intensity Harmonization of two countries socio-economic information needed for the vulnerability assessment that a priori differs by its content and administrative scales

11 THE MOST IMPORTANT LESSONS LEARNT Understanding of the vital necessity of vulnerability assessment as a basis for the development of an adaptation strategy Understanding of importance and effectiveness of a basin-level approach in the assessment of vulnerability to climate change and floods. The need to subordinate the national and narrow sectoral interests to maintain the river basin as a single ecological system. Expanding the understanding of floods protection not only as a set of engineering protection measures, but also as the "soft" management and general environmental conservation activities. The need of permanent development, coordination and updating the basin-level scenarios of changes in climate and river hydrological regime, and the assessment of their implications for the basin s natural and socio-economic systems.

12 GIS SUPPORT OF 2-D MODELING AND FLOOD RISKS ASSESSMENT PROCESS Principal results: Based on sonar survey, surface digital elevation model (DEM) and river bathymetry, the spatial data processing and floods detail modeling for the Mogilev Podolsky - Ataki section of the river; Spatial analysis of high floods consequences for different river flows scenarios; Assessment of the floods risk fluctuation, depending on likely changes in regional climate and river flow.

13 PREPARING DATA FOR MODELING Sonar - Lowrance HDS GIS-based cross-sections of Dniester near Mogilev-Podolsk; the total length - 16 km Sonar survey of the Dniester channel and its trainings for sonar users Normal Water Surface Floodway Left Bank Station Main Channel Flood Water Surface Floodway Right Bank Station River cross-section measurements

14 2-D MODELING OF EXTREME FLOOD SCENARIOS Modelling scenarios of 1% flood: historical and future climate Input data: River discharges Location Climate Present Future Increase Zaleschiki % Dniester HPP % Modelling results 130,000 elements Cell sizes: along the river 10m, at domain boundaries 20m. Unstructured computational grid of the model Variable Maximum water level at Mohyliv- Podilskyi station (m,bs) Maximum water rise at Mohyliv- Podilskyi station (m) Present Climate Future Increase m % Flooded area (km 2 ) % Maximum current speed (m/s) % Total water level difference along the river in model domain (m) %

15 GIS-MAPPING OF FLOODING ZONES FOR TWO SCENARIOS Legend Flood zone in 2008 (1%) Flood zone with the climate change

16 SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF THE FLOODED ZONE Mogilev Podolsky (Ukraine) - Ataki (Moldova) site Rise in water level: 1% cm ( ; 9:00) Flooded objects Residential 19% Industrial 28% Suburban 14%

17 FLOODS RISK ASSESSMENT: POTENTIAL ANNUAL INDIVIDUAL RISKS FOR HUMAN BEING P - average likelihood of flooding due to flood or hydraulic failure; Nsf - population in the settlements that can get in the zone of flooding; Tf - the total time during which keeps flooding; Ns - number of the region population where the risk assessment; Vtf - vulnerability of the population depending on time of wave approach; Vsf - vulnerability of the population depending on age; Vsd - vulnerability of the population depending on the depth of flooding; Ris (af> 2) - a potential individual risk of life from potentially dangerous objects that were flooding into the area> 2 m Ris (f) = Р ((Nsf / Tf) Vtf Vsf Vsd (1 / Ns) + Ris(af >2 ))* * Parameters defined, using GIS

18 RISK IDENTIFICATION BASED ON ISO RECOMMENDATIONS Risk Level (ISO 31010) Опис Discription Risk value Very High Неприйнятний для населення і виробництва. Необхідні заходи зі зниження Unacceptable to the population and production. Measures are needed to reduce >10-3 High Допустимий для виробничих умов, при впливі на все населення необхідний динамічний контроль та поглиблене вивчення джерел і можливих наслідків шкідливих впливів для вирішення питання про заходи щодо управління ризиком Refer to your operating conditions, when exposed to the entire population requires dynamic control and in-depth study of the sources and the possible consequences of the harmful effects to decide on measures to control risk Moderate Допустимий ризик (рівень, на якому, встановлюються спеціальні нормативи для населення) Acceptable risk (the level at which, established special standards for the public) Low Бажана (цільова) величина ризику при проведенні оздоровчих та природоохоронних заходів The desired (target) amount of risk in conducting health and environmental measures < 10-6

19 RISK MAPPING Map of floods risk under climate change Map of 1% historical flood risk based on 2008 yr max Legend Dniester channel Flood zones Classification of urban flood risk Very high High Moderate Low

20 GEOPORTAL OF THE DNIESTER RIVER BASIN The Geoportal was created in the framework of the "Dniester-III project to exchange information at the level of riparian countries for the joint assessment and management of Dniester s water resources, as well as to facilitate public access to this data In , hosting a pilot GIS Internet portal river basin will be provided by UNEP / GRID-Arendal at:

21 FUTURE PLANS Implementation of 2D modeling and risk assessment GIS-technologies, developed for Mogilev-Podolsky Ataki site, for other problem sites of the Dniester and other river basins Creation of the web interfaces for input data as an effective solution of the data unification problem Study of possibilities to automatize monitoring technologies (from the automatic hydrological posts, mobile hydrochemical laboratories, field GPS equipment to the web GIS interface) for improving the quality and objectivity of monitoring data. Further development of a geoportal for publication project results and transboundary geodata cooperation.

22 MONITORING AND COMMUNICATION: PAST YEAR RESULTS As a principal result, capacities for the monitoring and early warning on transboundary floods have been improved: 2 additional automated flow stations were installed in the upper part of the basin (Ukraine) Hardware and software for automatic collection and transmission of the hydrological data in real-time is placed at Dniester-Prut Water Basin Management Board (Chernivtsi, Ukraine) The study of the existing capacities and practices for communication on flood risks was prepared: A series of interviews on flood alerts and flood communication with national and local representatives of key organizations took place in the basin The report on flood communication study has been prepared, including the conclusions and recommendations

23 AUTOMATED FLOW MONITORING STATIONS The modern equipment of Swiss company Keller AG a leader in production of detectors and systems for information exchange in Europe and other regions The monitored parameters: Water level Water temperature Air temperature Water pressure The hydrological data is directly transmitted to Ukraine s Dniester-Prut Water Basin Management Board. In the future information would flow in real-time to other downstream users, including in Moldova and Odessa (Ukraine) with over one million population

24 Public awareness on new monitoring facilities The representatives of the following organizations took part in the pressconference: The State Water Agency of Ukraine The water resources department of three Ukrainian oblasts of the basin Oblasts and local authorities UNEP(Geneva), OSCE (Vienna, Kyiv) Over 30 articles and new items on the national and local TV Ukraine s water authorities launch ENVSEC-supported automated stations for monitoring flow of the Dniester Chernivtsi, Ukraine 17 december 2012

25 PRINCIPAL CONCLUSIONS ON THE FLOOD COMMUNICATION STUDY Well established procedure for sharing hydrometeorological information between the organizations of two countries and the countries themselves None of the countries possesses an automated early warning system providing with flood alert, including on a dam failure The countries have no up-to-date maps of potential extreme flooding zones The issue of training of civil protection specialists has not been fully resolved; the level of public awareness on actions before, during and after flooding is not sufficient

26 FUTURE PLANS: FLOOD COMMUNICATION To improve the monitoring and forecasts of transboundary floods through the strengthening of early warning infrastructure as well as a joint system for automated flow monitoring and data exchange within the basin Development and implementation of the specific measures aimed at improving institutional and technical bases for communication and information exchange International seminars for discussion of the priorities for future cooperation Publication of the information materials for the wide public

27 GENERAL FUTURE PLANS Based on the principles of Dniester River Basin Treaty (Rome, 2012): Development of a full transboundary adaptation strategy and implementation plan Implementation of some selected measures, such as: To update operation rules of Dniester reservoirs, taking into account the observed and expected changes in regional climate and river s water regime To base project s results in the development of a national strategy of water resources adaptation to climate change To improve the monitoring and forecasts of transboundary floods through the strengthening of the joint system for automated flow monitoring and data exchange within the basin To apply the developed methods and approaches for a second transboundary river basin in Moldova (Prut river)

28 QUESTION TO THE OTHER PILOT PROJECTS How do you organize the management and analysis of geodata in your project? In what degree GIS technologies were used for this task? What ways to assess the risk of dangerous hydrological phenomena are used in your project? Does your project include the component on flood communication and interaction with local people for flood warning? If yes, how do you implement this component? Does the framework of your project provide for the monitoring network extension or/and installation of automated flow monitoring stations? Please inform us about your experience on real-time hydrological data exchange. Are there any difficulties in this connection?