Visions of the Future Electricity Supply Structure -

Transcription

1 Visions of the Future Electricity Supply Structure - How Liberalisation, Increased Share of Renewable Energies, Decentralised Generation and ICT will Change Electricity Systems Prof. Dr. Jürgen Schmid ISET Insitute for Solar Energy Supply Technology Kassel/Hanau, Germany University of Kassel Efficient Energy Conversion The current global energy situation and future trends The potential of energy efficiency New sources of renewable energies Energy and communication European research on future supply structures Markets for energy and power quality Virtual utilities Vision for a sustainable electricity supply of Europe

2 Institut für Solare Energieversorgungstechnik e.v. Systems Technology for the Utilisation of Renewable Energies and for the Decentralised Power Supply Applications-oriented Research and Development Wind Energy Photovoltaics Use of Biomass Energy Conversion and Storage Hybrid Systems Energy Economy Information and Training Executive Board: Prof. Dr.-Ing. Jürgen Schmid Dr. rer. nat. Oliver Führer Personnel: 75 Employees Budget: approxim. 8 Mio. Euro Information:

3 Wind Energy MW World Europe Germany German wind energy production GWh Sources: BTM consult, windpower monthly, IWR, ISET,BWE, WWEA

4 Wind Energy 160 m Milestones of technology development 3 MW ø 100 m 2,5 MW ø 80 m 5 MW ø 115 m kw ø 34 m 60 kw ø 16 m 250 kw ø 25 m 500 kw ø 40 m 0 Hütter W34 Growian X

5 Experience Curve of Wind Energy

6 Change of Energy Supply Structures coal nuclear hydro high voltage grid medium voltage grid low voltage grid Up to now Central generation Sizing for coverage of max. load Time-invariant tariffs Load rejection at customer No information of grid status for customers Strict power limits for feed-in Large power reserves for unexpected loads or failure of power plants required Only unidirectional control required

7 Change of Energy Supply Structures In the future Additional decentralised generation Load coverage by trading Time-variable tariffs Load and cost optimisation by means of dialog Up to date information by means of variable tariffs Variable power limitation depending on present load Power reserves will be reduced by means of trade Bidirectional communication and large flow of information coal nuclear hydro gas and steam wind farm Wind PV BZ KWK PV BZ

8 Energy and Communication Energy and Cost Management power decentralized production consumers production time conventional power stations

9 Reserve Power Demand Source: D. Schlecht, RWTH Aachen

10 Energy and Communication Power gradients (one hour mean values) 100 Deutsches Verbundnetz 10 E.ON+RWE WP-Gruppe Küste WP-Gruppe Binnenland Häufigkeit [%] 1 0,1 0,01 0, Leistungsänderung [% P installiert ]

11 DENA Grid Study Forecast of Wind Energy Development in Germany until 2020 Source: DENA 2005 / DEWI Scenario

12 DENA Grid Study Prediction Errors Frequency of occurence depending on power level Source: DENA 2005 ISET

13 DENA Grid Study Capacity Credit Dependency on the level of security of supply Source: DENA 2005

14 DENA Grid Study Capacity Credit Dependency on geographical distribution Source: DENA 2005

15 DENA Grid Study Additional Reserve Power Demand - depending on installed wind capacity Source: DENA 2005

16 DENA Grid Study Power Plant Development in Germany / Basic scenario Source: DENA 2005

17 DENA Grid Study Source: DENA 2005

18 European Grid Extensions and Reinforcements European Commission TEN-E Initiative : Priority axes Source: European Commission / DG TREN (2003)

19 Cluster of R&D projects and experts for the Integration of Renewable Energy Sources (RES) and Distributed Energy Resources (DER) into the European Electricity Grid

20 Technology Platform Electricity Networks of the Future Source: European Commission DG Research

21 Thank you for your attention! More informations on: Institut für Solare Energieversorgungstechnik e.v. Systems Technology for the Utilisation of Renewable Energies and for the Decentral Power Supply Applications-oriented Research and Development Wind Energy Photovoltaics Use of Biomass Energy Conversion and Storage Hybrid Systems Energy Economy Information and Training