Wind energy; an essential ingredient of our future sustainable energy mix

Transcription

1 Wind energy; an essential ingredient of our future sustainable energy mix Jos Beurskens ECN Windenergie Petten (NL) Photo Jos Beurskens Vierte Niedersächsische Energietage 2011 Goslar (D), 28 March 2011 Photo: Jos Beurskens

2 Wind energy is not new 1. Classical period Classical wind mills for mechanical driven applications. > windmills in NW Europe. Period ends because of steam engine and abundant wood and coal. 2. Electricity producing wind turbines appear Appearance of electricity as a public energy source triggers the use of wind mills as an additional generation option. Basic aerodynamics. Period ends because of cheap oil. 3. First innovation period Need for rural electrification and energy shortage during WW II triggers new developments. Advanced aerodynamics. Period ends because of cheap gas and oil. 4. Second innovation and commercialisation period Energy and environmental crisis in combination with technological development cause commercial break through present

3 This presentation Goals Technology & cost effectiveness Policy Infrastructure

4 Goals Rising energy demand and contribution from wind power 1980s-1990s Two decades to install 0.9% of EU electricity demand Accelerating pace: reaching 3.7% end %-14.3% despite growing demand Meeting 20.8% to 28.2% of the EU need Demand: 2,577 TWh Demand: 3,243 TWh Demand: 4,107 TWh Demand: 4,503 TWh Source: EWEA

5 Goals Wind energy annual installation (GW) Source: EWEA/GWEC

6 Goals The Challenge; Credibility Trend of EWEA forecasts Source: H. Beurskens, L. Hamilton

7 Goals We did it before!!! But there are essential differences Annual installation rates Time lines displaced by 16 years! Source: EWEA Oceans of Opportunity

8 These are MW s! For effective capacity capacity factors have to be taken into account. Goals

9 Goals Eight 100x100 km offshore wind farms could produce 3,000 TWh equivalent to EU power demand Based on Siemens information

10 National targets 2030 Goals EWEA S three wind power scenarios (in GW) DK: > 4 GW UK: > 33 GW B: >4 GW D: 25 GW NL: > 6 GW Samengested door Chris Westra

11 Goals Note uncertainty of offshore compared to on-land developments! Source: EWEA Pure Power report

12 Goals On land saturation in various countries for different reasons Offshore: at the beginning of hockey stick curve Dilemma: retarding deployment on land in favour of offshore??

13 Goals

14 Goals

15 Goals The Challenge Natural resources (Norway, GB) Burden sharing (v.d. Veer (ex Shell): NL should export grey energy, import green energy)

16 Policy Aspects Roles of EU, National states, regions/länder/provinces/municipalities Incentives

17 Policy: EU, Sates & Regions EU Overall energy and environmental policy objectives Coordination of grid infrastructure Structuring energy market (cross border exchange) Coordination of incentives Technology development

18 Policy: EU, Sates & Regions National states National energy and environmental policy objectives, > brick stones of EU objectives Realisation grid infrastructure Implementing energy market (cross border exchange) Implementing incentives Technology development; industrial policy

19 Policy: EU, Sates & Regions Regions Regional energy and environmental policy objectives, > brick stones of national objectives Industrial policy, employment policy

20 Policy: Incentives What to stimulate? What to avoid? Energy output: ~ E [kwh] Full load hours: ~ 1/P [1/kW] Exceed available budget (caps basis of output, not full load hours) Reduced grid connection capacity High cable cost offshore Repowering: Apply incentives not to existing plants Installation of wind turbines in low wind regions (incentives depending on wind zone)

21 Policy: Incentives kwh kosten ~ 1 / V 3 Generation cost in cents/kwh Annual average wind speed at 50m height [m/s] 40m hub height 55m hub height 75 hub height

22 Technology: Cost engineering Project development BOS (incl. foundation) Wind turbine cost Grid connection? Transport & Installation Maintenance Operation COE = Levelized Cost of Energy (DKK/kWh) ICC = Initial Capital Cost of project (DKK) AEP Net = Net Annual Energy Production (kwh/yr) FCR = Fixed Charge Rate (1/yr) AOE = Annual Operating Expenses (O&M, replacement, land) Wind resource Rotor efficiency Park efficiency Control Capacity factor

23 Technology: Cost engineering Value of wind energy (= price): Balancing Improving is grid quality Risk price volatility Risk resource availability Environmental advantages COE = Levelized Cost of Energy (DKK/kWh) ICC = Initial Capital Cost of project (DKK) AEP Net = Net Annual Energy Production (kwh/yr) FCR = Fixed Charge Rate (1/yr) AOE = Annual Operating Expenses (O&M, replacement, land)

24 Cost: risk adjustment

25 ICC: Up scaling For the engineer For the economist mass ~ (D³) cross section ~ (D²) stress (= mass/cross section) ~ D inv. cost ~ (D³) energy output ~ (D²) COE (= inv. cost/energy output) ~ D Development of advanced materials with a higher strenth to mass ratio

26 Why up scaling? In cost break down of an offshore wind turbine support structures are dominant and relatively insensitive to load carrying capacity. Cables cost are relatively high and can be reduced by fewer (thus bigger) turbines per km 2

27 ICC: Up scaling 2010 offshore 150 m ø?? 200 m UpWind? Jos Beurskens Jos Beurskens

28 ICC: Up scaling De grootste windturbines (tot 5 MW) Jos Beurskens Jos Beurskens Multibrid, rotor diameter 116 m, 5 MW, Bremerhaven (D) ENERCON E 112, rotor diameter 112 m, 3.5/6 MW, Emden (D) Repower Repower, rotor diameter 126 m, 5 MW, Brunsbüttel (D)

29 Idee & animatie: van Kuik TUD ICC: Up scaling

30 Visual effects of up scaling Rotordiameter 3 x zo groot Opbrengst 10 keer zo groot Visuele impact beperkt

31 Visual effects of up scaling λ = V tip = V wind ongestoord Ω.R V wind ongestoord Ω λ.v wind ongestoord 1 ~ = R Ω R Lower rotational speed reduces negative visual impact when up scaling

32 Visual effects of up scaling Rotational speed decreases with increasing rotor diameter (Same number of blades and wind speed) D [m] P Omw/s Omw/min MW 0,13 7,5 60 1,2 MW 0,26 15, kw 0, kw 1, ,5 kw 7,6 460 Figures apply for a wind speed of approximately 8 m/s; Beaufort 4/5.

33 ICC: up scaling requires distributed blade control 1979 Control systems Conditioning monitoring (Direct) drive generators (permanent magnets, super conducting generator Advanced blade materials 2009

34 ICC: up scaling requires new blade materials Materials with low mass to strength ratio Load control e.g. by distributed aerodynamic control

35 Up scaling: weight requirements for blades Technology Evolution with Blade Size Blade Mass (tn) 30,00 25,00 20,00 15,00 10,00 5,00 0, Rotor Radius (m) Gl-P HLU Gl-P RI Gl-Ep RI Gl-Ep Prep Gl-C Hybrid 1 Gl-C Hybrid 2 New Tech 1 New Tech 2 New Tech 3 REFERENCE Ep Prep P RI P HLU Hybrid Source: UpWind; CRES, GR

36 ICC: up scaling requires distributed blade control Materials with low mass to strength ratio Load control e.g. by distributed aerodynamic control

37 Up scaling: control of large rotor blades Need for distributed aerodynamic blade control because of reduced effectiveness of full span pitch control of large machines Wind field Photo: Jos Beurskens

38 ICC: up scaling requires distributed blade control 20-40% reduction in blade- and tower fatigue loads Smart material variable trailing edge flap Rasmussen. DTU-Risø

39 ICC: up scaling requires new manufacturing methods Thermoplastics in blades (recycling) Topology Tomorrow? Topology - Today Bersee c.s. TUDelft

40 ICC: up scaling requires advanced control strategies LiDAR (Qinetiq ZephiR) Source: Risø-DTU, DK

41 ICC: Load mitigation by integral control Combined turbine foundation model testing (Marin / ECN) Photo Jos Beurskens Photo Jos Beurskens Photo Jos Beurskens Photo Jos Beurskens

42 ICC: Drive train evolution Classical drive train Jos Beurskens Jos Beurskens Direct Drive ENERCON Jos Beurskens Zephyros LT Super conducting generator

43 ICC: support structures optimisation Need for automated production, optimisation of use of raw material, non site specific concepts increasing water depth Suction bucket gravity mono pile multi pod floating

44 Source: BallastNedam ICC: support structures optimisation

45 Automated manufacturing ICC: support structures optimisation Photo Jos Beurskens Photo Jos Beurskens

46 New techniques: drilling concrete piles ICC: support structures optimisation

47 ICC: Grid integration Up scaling of wind turbines has small influence on grid connection costs Marginal impact on array cable system Relevant are Offshore wind farm capacity Offshore wind farms distance to shore Change of technology (AC / DC) Capacity factor (number of full load hours)!!

48 AEP: wind farm efficiency

49 AEP: wind farm efficiency 3 to 5 D Does this lay out provide maximum output and minimum variability of power output???? No!!!!

50 AEP: wind farm efficiency u 0 u u 0 u 0 u 0

51 AEP: wind farm efficiency Normal operation, optimal C p Increasing output by power control First row(s) more transparant for flow Source: ECN

52 AEP: wind farm efficiency Verification needs cross institutional cooperation with industry and customers ECN ECN/TNO Photo: Gustave Corten Foto: Photo: Jos Beurskens Data from Horns Rev, OWEZ and Nysted are being used in UpWind

53 AEP: wind farm efficiency Need for wind farm output optimisation, resource assessment, impact on regional climate U 0 Wind speed U U Down stream distance X separation Source: RisøDTU

54 AOE: O&M optimisation Photo: Jos Beurskens Ampelmann Harbour at sea Flight Leader concept Source: ECN, HEDEN

55 Availability = f (reliability, accessibility) 100 AOE: Access technology OWECS Availability [%] % accessibility (onshore) 80% accessibility 60% accessibility 40% accessibility (exposed offshore) Ampelmann: 2 H s = 2 m, 50 m vessel (85 %) 50 Strategy 1 state-of-the-art improved highly improved Reliability of design [-]

56 AOE: O&M optimisation Access technology: Ampelmann concept Foto: Jos Beurskens Photo: Foto: Jos Beurskens TUD, Ampelmann,

57 AOE: O&M optimisation Source: EWEA Southern Europe

58 AOE: O&M optimisation Optimalisation: Fuel consumption per service mission Docking performance Time of round trip 12 miles zone heliport haven Jos Beurskens Various options for interventions at sea, depending of the type of activity.

59 AOE: O&M optimisation 750 m Harbour at sea Lievense, R. Prins 750 M M Could serve 10,000 MW economically T = 5 to 7 years

60 Functions of Harbour at Sea For WE: 1. Station for transport, assembling, maintenance 2. Accommodation for personnel 3. Spare parts storage 4. Workshops 5. Commissioning facilities for entire wind turbines 6. Test sites 7. Transformer station for wind farm 8. Electrical sub-station for land connection and offshore circuit Other functions: 1. Aquaculture for feedstock materials and food 2. Emergency shelter 3. Marina 4. Gas-to-wire units 5. Logistics centre for fishery 6. Coast guard station 7. Life boat service North Clay-land land IJmuiden op Zee North-East Friesland Source: C. Westra, HEDEN Foundation

61 Bron: Arjen van der Meer, TUDelft Grid integration

62 Network of offshore expertise in Europe Map source: TUDelft Offshore Engineering

63 Photo: Jos Beurskens Danke für die Aufmerksamkeit!

64

65 Annexes (for discussion only) Offshore

66 Where is research focussing on: wind turbines & wind farms Dedicated offshore wind turbines Further up scaling (20 MW?) Distributed aerodynamic rotor control with smart features (incorporating LIDAR) Integrated turbine control (output, stability, safety, failure resistant) Wind farm control (variability of output, maximising output, load control) High degree of recyclability

67 Where is research focussing on: elctrical topics Super conducting generators Flexible light weight direct drive generators Offshore electrical infrastructure. DC based

68 Where is research focusing on: foundations & the environment Automated production of foundations adapted to specific series production Floating structures for medium depth and deep waters Integrated techniques of foundation and installation Automated emergency measures (shut downs) in the case environmental damage is likely (birds migration) EU spatial plan for European waters

69 Where is research focusing on: operation Offshore service harbours Multifunctional use of wind energy plants Advanced O&M strategies incorporating CM (on flight leaders), forecasters) Dedicated access technology / vessels

70 Conclusions: view into the near future (1) Dedicated offshore wind turbines Further up scaling (20 MW?) Distributed aerodynamic rotor control with smart features (incorporating LIDAR) Integrated turbine control (output, stability, safety, failure resistant) Wind farm control (variability of output, maximising output, load control) High degree of recyclebility

71 Conclusions: view into the near future (2) Super conducting generators Flexible light weight direct drive generators Offshore electrical infrastructure. DC based Offshore service harbours Multifunctional use of wind energy plants Advanced O&M strategies incorporating CM (on flight leaders), forecasters) Dedicated access technology / vessels

72 Conclusions: view into the near future (3) Automated production of foundations adapted to specific series production Floating structures for medium depth and deep waters Integrated techniques of foundation and installation Automated emergency measures (shut downs) in the case environmental damage is likely (birds migration) EU spatial plan for European waters