Evaluation of a hypothetical nuclear Renaissance

Transcription

1 Evaluation of a hypothetical nuclear Renaissance EHNUR (with updates) Wolfgang Kromp Karl Arlamovsky, Nikolaus Arnold, Daniel Baumgarten, Reinhold Christian, Michael Cerveny, Herbert Formayer, Martin Giersch, Klaus Gufler, Georgui Kastvhiev, Helga Kromp-Kolb, Wolfgang Liebert, Nikolaus Müllner, Wolfgang Rehm, Wolfgang Renneberg, Irene Schicker, Emmerich Seidelberger, Steven Sholly, Stephan Thomas, Werner Zittel Institute of Safety and Risks Sciences, BOKU Vienna This project was funded by the Climate and Energy Fund in the frame of the program Neue Energien 2020

2 Nuclear power & GHG GHG share of electricity to global emissions 20% only -> GHG mitigation potential by electricity sector a priori limited Capacity needed to replace fossil power plants including expected increase exceeds the nuclear potential estimated by IAEA by a factor of 3 to 8 Nikolaus Müllner, ISR BOKU Vienna Helga kromp-kolb, Herbert Formayer

3 Global Energy Assessment (GEA) Scenarios 60 scenarios all maintain 2 C target all achieve Millenium health goals no nuclear - options for all demand and transportation scenarios Renewables can substitute nuclear without endangering energy transition

4 Development trends of nuclear power Nuclear renaissance Does it occur? Klaus Gufler et al

5 Grid connections global "best post Fukushima" Scenario 40 Institute of Safety and Risk Sciences BOKU Vienna South America North America Europe CIS Asia Africa

6 Asia

7 CIS

8 North America

9 Europe

10 Nuclear power reactors of advanced generations Generation III - appr. 10 built Generation III+ - EPR, AP1000,..., under construction Generation IV ? If ever...

11 Generation III+ EPR PWR (Cutaway View) SOURCE: (Subki 2012a, Slide 29 of 87)

12 Generation 4 No severe accident No long lived waste No matter for proliferation Cheap

13 Bottle Necks Institute of Safety and Risk Sciences BOKU Vienna Availability of NPP sites Availability of fuel Approved reactor designs Manufacturing of heavy components Grid capacity Experts for production and operation Willingness to invest Public acceptance Political decisions

14 Availability of fuel Mining will remain main source Reprocessing, depletion of uranium for nuclear weapons & inventory reserves -> only minor role At favourable assumptions 40 years reserve Increasing number of reactors -> increasing risk of fuel shortage Europe s dependent on Uranium import Werner Zittel ( Ludwig Bölkow Systemtechnik GmbH, Ottobrunn, Germany ) Nikolaus Arnold, Wolfgang Liebert (ISR, BOKU Vienna)

15 Last resort 6,000 m² large and 13 micrometer thick polypropylene foil with poly ethylene surface, activated by electron beam radiation and chemical treatment processes for enhancement of uranium adsorption in sea water Tamada et al., 2004

16 Secondary Energy Applications Desalination District heating Process heat Hydrogen production -> Usage on low level up to now -> Population growth demands more fresh water -> Dense population contradicts siting

17 Production costs New reactor designs should be safer and easier -> therefore cheaper Demonstrably more expensive than their predecessors Cost and time overruns Steven Thomas, University of Greenwich

18 Societal and environmental risks Institute of Safety and Risk Sciences BOKU Vienna Kyshtym Chelyabinsk 1957 Windscale Sellafield 1957 Jaslovske Bohunice A1 1976, 1977 TMI 1979 Chernobyl 1986 Fukushima what next? -> Life extension & power uprating increases risk

19 Events since 2000 Brunsbüttel (00) tube line leakage Japan (02) data falsification Davis-Besse (90-02) vessel lid corrosion Koslodui (03) - LOCA Paks (03) fuel damage Repro plant Sellafield (04-05) Leekage Kosloduy (06) control rod jamming Forsmark (06) loss of off-site power etc.

20 Chernobyl July 2005

21 Shelter Fukushima Daiichi unit 1 (three month conctruction time)

22 F. Horvath 2002 complemented

23 GENERATION II REACTOR IN VESSEL MELT-RETENTION Concept for Mochovce WWER 440/213 Source: Stress-Test SR 2011, p. 153 Emmerich Seidelberger, ISR, BOKU Vienna

24 SAM concept for European Pressurized water Reactor (EPR) Core melt spreading and cooling in ex-vessel melt retention Source: Wikipedia, 2013

25 What Would Be Necessary for a Small Austrian Nuclear Power Program: Actions, Number of Units, Time Table & Costs Pass constitutional amendment rescinding ban on nuclear power Pass a nuclear law (enabling legislation) Pass legislation establishing liability for nuclear accidents Establish and staff an independent Nuclear Regulatory Authority (NRA) Establish Technical Support Organization (TSO) Establish regulation for nuclear powered electricity costs (either under current E-Control or in another regulatory regime) Establish organization to provide external security for four NPP sites Establish geological repository Establish spent fuel & radioactive waste shipments from PP sites to repository Upgrade emergency planning and response capabilities for responding to nuclear accidents inside Austria Provide assistance to neighboring countries in such an event Steven Sholly, ISR, Boku Vienna

26 Thank you for your attention Wolfgang Kromp Universität für Bodenkultur Institut für Sicherheits- und Risikowissenschaften Borkowskigasse 4, 1190 Wien