An Integrated Framework for Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources

Transcription

1 An Integrated Framework for Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources 1 Stakeholder Needs for Climate Information Related to Agriculture and Natural Resources Phil Pasteris Principal Technologist Global Water Resources CH2M HILL Portland, Oregon Phillip.Pasteris@ch2m.com Kathy Freas Global Water Resources CH2M HILL Albuquerque, New Mexico kathy.freas@ch2m.com Armin Munévar, P.E. Senior Technologist Global Water Resources CH2M HILL San Diego, CA amunevar@ch2m.com Ext. 7218

2 Presentation Outline 2 A historic opportunity is awaits The Carbon/Energy/Water (CEW) nexus Data and partners required to assess climate impacts on CEW Integrating climate information with a water resource planning framework

3 We Are At Critical Climate Juncture 3 Never have the resources, technology, and the ability to assess, mitigate, or adapt to climate change-driven impacts at local, regional, or global scales been more accessible and the motivation greater to do so than now If not us, who? If not now, when?

4 Stakeholder Needs for Climate Information 4 Clients are demanding sustainable solutions and tools for challenges associated with managing water, energy, and carbon under existing and future effects of climate change Understanding these linkages is the key to effective resource management Water Energy CEW Nexus Carbon

5 Specific Climate Data Needs Water Energy CEW Nexus Carbon 5 Observed Climate Datasets for Model Development Station period of record hourly, daily and monthly climate data for over 10,000 U.S. locations and several thousand international locations. Gridded observed monthly precipitation and temperature ( ) for the U.S., 4 km resolution. Gridded observed daily precipitation and temperature for the U.S , 4 km resolution.

6 Specific Climate Data Needs Water Energy CEW Nexus Carbon 6 Derived Climate Datasets for Assessing Climate Trends Station long-term average monthly and annual precipitation and temperature for over 6,000 U.S. locations and several thousand international locations, , Gridded long-term average monthly and annual precipitation and temperature datasets at 4 km and 800 meter resolution.

7 Specific Climate Data Needs Water Energy CEW Nexus Carbon 7 Value-Added Climate Products for Construction, Agriculture, Sustainability, and Planning Hourly, daily, monthly, and seasonal temperature and precipitation distributions (frequency analysis) Daily degree day listing for user selected periods and applications for different crop types Precipitation summary and historical context Frost statistics and growing season length and distributions Consecutive run of days analysis Seasonal ranking for a for user selected years Temperature, precipitation and snowfall observations, normals and records for a day

8 Specific Climate Data Needs Water Energy CEW Nexus Carbon 8 Seasonal and Global Change Model Datasets for Scenario Generation Regional seasonal forecasts to support efficient intra-annual resource management decisions 1/8 & 1/16 degree GCM results from appropriate IPCC sanctioned modeling processes Regional GCM results that reflect local characteristics, especially in West where snow is a critical component of water resource management

9 Who Builds the Pieces? 9 Climate and Water Data National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) Regional Climate Centers (6) - Applied Climate Information System (ACIS) and State Climatologists (51) Federal agencies (USGS, NRCS, EPA, BOR, COE, ++) Many private sector contributors Regional Climate Centers

10 Who Builds the Pieces? RISAs 10 Applied Climate Research Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments RISA (8) Regional Climate Centers Many Universities Private sector centers Global Change Modeling IPCC contributors worldwide Many other contributors

11 Meeting Climate Needs Water Energy CEW Nexus Carbon 11 Many climate puzzle pieces exist to help understand the CEW linkage But need to be properly positioned GLOBAL CLIMATE PROJECTIONS RISK ASSESSMENT INTERNET NIDIS WATER SUPPLY CLIMATE CHANGE ACIS CLIMATE SERVICES CUSTOM APPLICATIONS ADAPTATION CLIMATE MAPPING MITIGATION USER NEEDS PLANNING

12 Meeting Climate Needs Water Energy CEW Nexus Carbon 12 A quick and easy solution? Don touch that dial!!!

13 Meeting Climate Needs Water Energy CEW Nexus Carbon 13 A much better solution! Work together to align resources to meet user needs. Enables a coordinated effort among all parties. INTERNET CLIMATE SERVICES NIDIS RISK ASSESSMENT ACIS MITIGATION ADAPTATION GLOBAL CLIMATE PROJECTIONS CLIMATE MAPPING CUSTOM APPLICATIONS WATER SUPPLY USER NEEDS PLANNING

14 Who Benefits When Climate Needs Are Met? 14 Stakeholders that deal with agriculture, water, energy, carbon inventories, and all involved with sustainability issues City, state, and regional governments Federal and international governments / countries The private sector who has the flexibility and resources to work with each client

15 Climate Change Projected Impacts 15 Sea ice and snow cover losses will continue, and declining snowpack will affect snow-dependent water supplies and streamflow levels around the world; The risk of drought and the frequency, intensity, and duration of heat waves are expected to increase; More extreme precipitation is likely, increasing the risk of flooding and will impact drainage designs; Sea level is projected to rise 7 to 23 inches during the 21st century due to melting snow and ice on land and thermal expansion of ocean waters. (IPCC 2007)

16 Sudden Impact? Dealing With Time 16 Flood USGS Kansas Drought State of Georgia Hurricane NOAA

17 Recent Heavy Midwest Rainfall; June WISCONSIN POYNETTE 7 WNW PORTAGE ONTARIO BARABOO VIROQUA INDIANA BOWLING GREEN 3 NE CLINTON 2 W FRANKLIN 2 E GREENCASTLE 1 E IOWA DORCHESTER` MASON CITY # DECORAH 9.97 ELMA 9.62 ST ANSGAR 9.5 CRESTON 2 SW 9.4 NEW HAMPTON 9.13

18 Complex Intra-Annual Changes? March Lack of precipitation + Warm temperatures = Perfect storm for snowpack reduction (Pagano, Pasteris, Dettinger, Redmond EOS 2004)

19 Many things are still unknown, hard if not impossible to project 19 Precipitation: will there be more or less? Patterns of variability: will the climate get stuck or swing between extremes? Today s Variability??? Future Variability? Are there thresholds, tipping points, surprises? (Pagano, Garen 2005)

20 Dealing With Public Perceptions of Climate Change A Paradox 20 An American public that is more informed about global warming isn't necessarily one that is more concerned about it. People who expressed confidence in the ability of scientists to deal with the problem also showed much less concern than those who had less faith in researchers. (Vedlitz, Kellstedt April 2008) [ climate_N.htm] Educational challenges the buck stops with us!

21 Focus on Florida and the Southeast Governor s Action Team on Energy and Climate Change 21 Sea level rise could lead to flooding of low-lying areas, erosion of beaches, loss of coastal wetlands, intrusion of salt water into water supplies, and increased vulnerability of coastal areas to storms and hurricanes. As climate changes, this could cause some plants and animals to go extinct, some to decline or increase in population, and others migrate to areas with more favorable conditions. Diseases and pests with current tropical ranges could invade Florida, as has West Nile virus and Africanized honey bees in Florida's panhandle. More severe storms and droughts could affect crop production, pests and growth rates.

22 22 Integrating Climate Data and Climate Change Projections with a Water Resource Planning Framework A First Step in Assessing the CEW Nexus

23 What is a Water Resource Planning Framework? 23 One that addresses all aspects of the Water Cycle One that supports the basic needs of the user community Is flexible and expandable to adapt to future needs One that is understood by clients and the public Produces timely results to efficiently manage resources SOURCE: Melbourne Water

24 Global Climate Change Integration Framework Continuous Process With Water Managers Assess Effectiveness, Update and Manage Operations 1. Establish Climate Access Integrated Climate Change and Water Resource Planning 2. Develop Risk Analysis and 4. Implement Strategy Scenario Planning 3. Develop Adaptive Strategies

25 1. Establish Climate Access 25

26 Global Climate Change Integration Framework Continuous Process With Water Managers Assess Effectiveness, Update and Manage Operations 1. Establish Climate Access 4. Implement Strategy Integrated Climate Change and Water Resource Planning 2. Develop Risk Analysis and Scenario Planning 3. Develop Adaptive Strategies

27 2. Develop Risk Analysis and Scenario Planning27 Preparing for Climate Change: A Guidebook for Local, Regional, and State Governments Establishing Climate Resilient Communities Focuses on the process to assess climate impacts and risk Designing a response Workbook-style with checklists, milestones

28 Global Climate Change Integration Framework Continuous Process With Water Managers Assess Effectiveness, Update and Manage Operations 1. Establish Climate Access Integrated Climate Change and Water Resource Planning 2. Develop Risk Analysis and 4. Implement Strategy Scenario Planning 3. Develop Adaptive Strategies

29 3. Develop Adaptive Strategies 29 Initiate a climate resiliency effort Scope, sectors, and resources Conduct a climate resiliency study Sensitivity, adaptive capacity, vulnerability, risk, thresholds, and prioritization Set preparedness goals and develop your preparedness plan Vision and principles

30 3. Assess Impacts and Vulnerabilities - Hybrid Analytical Approach 30 Select Analytical Approach Quantitative Risk Assessment Degree of Change Sensitivity Scenario Approach Select Climate Change Scenarios Regional Downscaling Climate Variable Adjustments Determine System Responses Assess Impacts/ Vulnerabilities Evaluate Performance Develop Responses/ Adaptations Technology Behavior Managerial Policy Public Outreach Threshold Approach Define Threshold or Coping Bounds Explore Sensitivity to Climate and Climate Change Determine System Responses Assess Impacts/ Vulnerabilities Evaluate Risk Performance Qualitative (or semi-quantitative) Risk Assessment More Information Needed?

31 Global Climate Change Integration Framework Continuous Process With Water Managers Assess Effectiveness, Update and Manage Operations 1. Establish Climate Access 4. Implement Strategy Integrated Climate Change and Water Resource Planning 2. Develop Risk Analysis and Scenario Planning 3. Develop Adaptive Strategies

32 4. Implementing an Adaptive Strategy Water Supply Availability Example 32 California 1. Emissions Scenario Base-to-Future Period Changes: Operations 5. Operations Models 2. Climate Simulations Base-to-Future Period Changes: Runoff San Francisco Bay 4. Hydrologic Models Base-to-Future Period Changes: Temperature & Precipitation 3. Spatial Downscaling Evolving Time-Series Adapted from Cayan and Knowles, SCRIPPS/USGS, 2003

33 Global Climate Change Integration Framework Continuous Process With Water Managers Assess Effectiveness, Update and Manage Operations 1. Establish Climate Access 4. Implement Strategy Integrated Climate Change and Water Resource Planning 2. Develop Risk Analysis and Scenario Planning 3. Develop Adaptive Strategies

34 5. Assess Effectiveness, Update and Manage Operations 34 Periodically review your basic assumptions Vulnerability and risk based on recent events Goals and sectors affected by recent events Update the data used for your risk model using observed data and/or new GCC model information Review action plan based on recent events Educate those affected by your plan about necessary changes based on recent events or new GCC projections

35 In Conclusion 35 A process and framework can be implemented to provide water managers with realistic steps to: Assess climate change risk and vulnerabilities Develop climate change resilient preparedness plans Manage resources Carbon, Energy, and Water The data, technology, and expertise are now available to accomplish this task, but a significant amount of work remains Never has there been an opportunity of this magnitude to meet natural resource manager s needs to cope with a changing climate

36 Thank You! 36