Beijing energy consumption carbon emission characteristics and cause analysis

Transcription

1 Avalable onlne Journal of Chemcal and Pharmaceutcal Research, 2014, 6(10): Research Artcle ISSN : CODN(USA) : JCPRC5 Beng energy consumpton carbon emsson characterstcs and cause analyss Zhao Janfeng 1, Yang Yong 2 and Suo Chenxa 1 1 The College of conomcs and Management, Beng Insttute of Petrochemcal Technology, Beng, Chna 2 Zhejang Gongshang Unversty, Chna ABSTRACT Urbanzaton and rapd economc growth make Beng shoulder heavy responsbltes n carbon emsson reducton. Through calculatng the total carbon emsson n Beng, summarzng the characterstc of carbon emsson and utlzng LMDI decomposton method to analyze the ncrement of carbon emsson n Beng, the result shows that the growth of per capta economc aggregate s the most mportant factor for the hgh-speed growth of carbon emsson n Beng and the mprovement of energy utlzaton effcency s the man reason to curb carbon emsson growth. Under the overall envronment of rapd economc growth, adjustng ndustral structure, mprovng energy utlzaton effcency, optmzng energy structure and relyng on techncal nnovaton and nsttutonal nnovaton s the basc soluton to acheve the target of emsson reducton. Key words: Carbon emsson, LMDI method, energy consumpton, Beng cty INTRODUCTION Wth the constant growth of global populaton and economc scale and the vast consumpton of energy, the global catastrophc clmate change caused by the rse of carbon doxde n the ar appears frequently and has gravely threatened the survval and development of humans. To cope wth the energy crss and clmate warmng, people have long been aware of the mportance of energy savng and emsson reducton. Low-carbon development has become the mportant ssue n the 21st century. Durng the Copenhagen World Clmate Conference held n December 2009, many countres put forward ther emsson reducton target. The Chnese government promsed before the conference that by 2020 Chnese unt GDP carbon doxde emsson wll drop 40-45% compared wth Adherng to the low-emsson sustanable development path and developng recyclng economy and low-carbon economy has become an consensus of the nternatonal socety. nergy consumpton s the man source of greenhouse gases, so calculatng the carbon doxde from energy consumpton s the prmary task n studyng the regonal low-carbon development. As the poltcal, cultural and educatonal center of Chna, Beng arouses hgh attenton from all partes n energy emsson reducton. In recent years, Beng has acheved a good result n energy savng and emsson reducton. However, the envronmental problem s stll very severe wth the acceleraton of the urbanzaton process and the rapd economc development. From the begnnng of 2013, the hazy weather has arsen contnuously and the envronmental problem s put on the workng agenda by the government. How to ensure the reducton of carbon emsson wthout nfluencng economc development becomes an mportant ssue n Beng s economc transformaton process. Based on statstcal analyss on energy consumpton carbon emsson, the paper uses the LMDI model to analyze the drvng factors of the carbon emsson change n Beng, understand the contrbuton rate of varous factors to carbon emsson and provde theoretcal bass for the formulaton and adjustment of carbon emsson reducton polces by stages. BIJING TOTAL NRGY CONSUMPTION AND CHARACTRISTICS ANALYSIS Shown n the followng Fgure 1 and Fgure 2, Beng s energy consumpton showed an ncreasng trend from

2 to 2012, but the gross regonal producton energy consumpton/rmb10, 000 showed an obvous decreasng trend 年北京市能源消费总量 Beng total energy consumpton 能源消费总量 Fg.1 Beng total energy consumpton (unt: 10,000ton) Data source: Beng Statstcal Yearbook Fg.2 Beng gross regonal producton energy consumpton/rmb10, 000 Data source: Beng Statstcal Yearbook 2013 BIJING NRGY CONSUMPTION CARBON DIOXID MISSION ANALYSIS The carbon emsson factor has been wde used by domestc and foregn researchers and the energy related carbon emsson factor has been calculated n detals. The energy carbon emsson factor s calculated accordng to related lterature. The data used n the paper s from Beng Statstcal Yearbook from 2002 to The factor of the per capta economc aggregate s from Beng per capta real GDP (2002 s the base perod); the ndustral structure factor s the proporton of three ndustres n the natonal economy; the selected consumpton energes are coal, coke, gasolne, kerosene, desel, fuel ol, lquefed petroleum gas, natural gas and electrc power. The method provded n 2006 IPCC Natonal Greenhouse Gases Lst Gudelnes s adopted n the calculaton of carbon emsson. The usage amount of dfferent types of energes s converted to standard coal accordng to dfferent standards and then converson coeffcent s used to convert standard coal to carbon doxde. The basc formula s as follows: CO = KQ 2 Q s the quantty of standard coal converted from varous energy usage amounts; K s the converson coeffcent. The coeffcent K s dfferent under dfferent techncal condtons n dfferent countres and regons. The result shows that from 2000 to 2011, Beng energy consumpton showed an ncreasng trend year by year; the emsson of the correspondng energy consumpton carbon doxde was also ncreasng constantly. From 2002 to 2011, the carbon emsson ncreased by mllon tons n Beng, and the carbon doxde emsson decreased n 474

3 part of years (The economc crss and the holdng of Olympcs n 2008 led to the reducton of carbon emsson ncrease). But the growth rate s changed warly. In 2004, the growth rate reached the hghest 11% and then the growth rate gradually dropped. BIJING NRGY CONSUMPTION CARBON MISSION FACTOR DCOMPOSITION 1. Factor decomposton model The factor decomposton method s a wdely used method n studyng the change mechansm of carbon doxde nternatonally at present. The method decomposes the carbon doxde emsson nto the multplcaton of related nfluencng factors and makes re-decomposton accordng to dfferent defntve weght, to confrm the ncrement share of each nfluencng factor. There are many man nfluencng factors of carbon emsson, such as foregn trade, energy consumpton structure, fxed asset nvestment and technologcal progress all can nfluence carbon emsson. But n concluson, t wll be reflected from one or more factors from economc growth, ndustral structure, energy ntensty, energy structure and carbon doxde emsson factors. Based on exstng factors, an mportant nfluencng factor populaton s added n the paper, whch s of mportant reference sgnfcance n studyng the change mechansm of carbon doxde emsson. The total amount of carbon doxde emsson can be expressed n the followng formula: C = QQ C = = PQQ RS I M U In the formula, C refers to the total carbon doxde emsson caused by varous energy consumpton; refers to ndustry or department; j sgnfes the types of fossl energy consumpton, lke coal and natural gas; P stands for the number of resdent populaton n Beng; Q and Q respectvely refer to economc aggregate and ndustry or department output value;, and respectvely refer to total energy consumpton, ndustry or total department energy consumpton, ndustry or regonal total j energy consumpton; R=Q/P refers to per captal economc aggregrate; S=Q/Q refers to ndustral structure; I=/ refers to energy ntensty; M=/j refers to energy structure; U=C/ refers to ndustry or department j energy carbon doxde emsson factor. Ths way, the change of carbon doxde emsson can be decomposed nto fve nfluencng factors per captal economc aggregate, ndustral structure, energy ntensty, energy structure and carbon doxde emsson factor. 0 and t respectvely refer to nstant and base perods. Accordng to LMDI model method, the change of carbon doxde emsson s: C toc = C C t 0 = C act str mx + C In the formula, the nfluence of the fve varables to the carbon doxde emsson of dfferent ndustres or departments can be calculated accordng to the LMDI method rased by B.W.Ang and other people. 2. Data specfcaton and result analyss Beng ndustry carbon emsson s decomposed accordng to the LMDI decomposton model, and the result s shown n the followng Table 1. Accordng to the data n Table 1, the carbon emsson n Beng ncreased mllon tons from 2002 to In 2008, the holdng of Olympc Games led to the rapd decrease of carbon emsson ncrease. In 2011, as the use of coke reduced more than fve tmes, the carbon emsson n the year showed negatve growth. xcept the specal changes n the two years, the carbon emssons all showed an ncreasng trend year by year. As shown n Fgure 3, n the nfluencng factors promotng carbon emsson, the growth of per capta economc aggregate s the man reason for the ncrease of carbon emsson and ts contrbuton rate reached 129.3%. On the one hand, the hgh-speed economc growth caused the emsson of a large amount of carbon doxde, especally durng the hgh-speed economc development perod from 2005 to 2007; secondly, the ncrease of populaton has a great nfluence on the ncrease of carbon emsson and ts contrbuton rate reached 80.9%; the energy structure also has the facltaton effect, but the proporton of ts contrbuton rate s too small. In recent years, Beng has ncreased the use of natural gas from 1.09 bllon cubc meters n 2000 to bllon cubc meters n 2012, but the use of coal was mllon tons n 2000 and reached mllon tons n 2006 and mllon tons n 2012, stll takng a larger proporton. Among the factors curbng carbon emsson, energy ntensty (energy utlzaton effcency) plays a decsve role and ts contrbuton rate reached 94.4%. After 2010, the energy utlzaton effcency was further mproved, beneftng from the clean coal technology and boler mprovement. The gross regonal coal producton energy consumpton/rmb 10,000 dropped to 0.14 ton n 2012 from 0.77 ton n 2000, obvous n effect. Due to the adjustment of Beng ndustral structure, the contrbuton rate n terms of carbon emsson also reached 15.9%, whch ndcates Beng s ndustral structure s beng n the process of optmzaton. nt emf 475

4 Table Beng carbon emsson ncrease factor decomposton (unt: 10,000 tons) Tme Carbon emsson Per capta economc Industral structure nergy ntensty nergy structure growth aggregate contrbuton contrbuton contrbuton contrbuton Data source: author statstcal Carbon emsson ncrease Industral structure contrbuton nergy structure contrbuton Per capta economc aggregate contrbuton nergy ntensty contrbuton Fg Beng energy consumpton carbon emsson factor decomposton Data source: author statstcal CONCLUSION The paper uses LMDI decomposton technque to study on the carbon emsson ncrement n Beng and the study shows that: (1) The ncrease of per capta economc aggregate s the most mportant cause for the contnuous rapd growth of carbon emsson n Beng; (2) The mprovement of energy utlzaton effcency (energy ntensty)s the most mportant factor curbng the carbon emsson ncrease n Beng; (3) The change of energy structure has relatvely smaller nfluence on the ncrease of carbon emsson n Beng and has not tapped ts potental. Due to long-term dependence on hgh carbon doxde emsson energes lke coal, t has lttle effect n reducng carbon emsson. In vew of Beng economy wll contnue to mantan hgh-speed growng trend n a perod of tme n the future and the populaton control lacks realstc sgnfcance, efforts should be made from ndustral structure, energy utlzaton effcency and energy structure to control the carbon doxde emsson n Beng. Seen from Beng s ndustral structure, the output value proporton of the tertary ndustry reached 76.1% and the secondary ndustry accounted for 23.1%. Most tertary ndustres are characterzed by low consumpton and low emsson. The space of ncreasng the proporton of the tertary ndustry through reducng the proporton of the secondary ndustry s not large. Beng should focus on the energy utlzaton plannng of the secondary and tertary ndustres for the future low carbon development and should put the low-carbon development of the tertary ndustry at the frst place. Therefore, the ndustral structure should be adjusted nternally to promote ndustral nternal upgradng and technology nnovaton, so as to acheve the target of energy savng and emsson reducton. At present, Beng has the permanent resdent populaton of more than 20 mllon and more than 5.2 mllon cars. The daly energy consumpton n Beng s huge, so the emsson reducton task s heavy. Increasng energy 476

5 ntensty and mprovng energy utlzaton effcency can yeld twce the result wth half the effort n completng the carbon emsson reducton task. Improvng energy utlzaton effcency s manly to enhance the energy technologcal level. The mprovement of technologes can not only reduce the emsson of carbon doxde but also promote the economc development and mprove enterprses strength and product qualty. Restrcted by natonal resource endowment, the energy structure s dffcult to change n the short term. But n the long term, the contrbuton of energy structure s the smallest among the carbon emsson nfluencng factors and t has very great development space. To adjust the energy structure, the energy consumpton structure based on carbon base energes lke coal should be changed at present. In the future, reducng the use proporton of hgh-carbon energes lke coal and petroleum, ncreasng the use proporton of lquefed gas and natural gas and makng heavy use of wnd power, hydropower and clean energes are the man routes to acheve urban low-carbon development. Beng should rgorously enforce the capacty elmnaton and project access standards, promote ndustral optmzng and upgradng wth hgh-end mplantaton as the core, strengthen economc development momentum wth low-carbon techncal nnovaton as the key pont, and promote successful economc transformaton wth mechansm nnovaton as the guarantee, n order to develop renewable energy resources and acheve the jont development of economy and envronment Acknowledgements The paper s one of the staged achevements of Beng Muncpal Commsson of ducaton Socal Scence Project Beng nergy Consumpton and Carbon msson Hstorcal Characterstcs and Cause Analyss (sm ); Beng phlosophy and socal scence Plannng project(10bejg338); RFRNCS [1] Druckman A, JacksonT. col con,vol.68,pp ,2009 [2] B WAng. nergy Polcy,Vol.33,PP ,2005 [3] CHN Chao-fan,LIU We,HUAN Han-qng. Journal of Chengdu Unversty of Informaton Technology, vol.6,pp ,2013 [4] SONG Jekun. Resources Scence, vol.34,pp.35-41,2008 [5] GUO Chao-xan. Chna Populaton, Resources and nvronment, vol.20,pp. 4-9,2010 [6] YAO Yong-lng. Chna Populaton,Resources and nvronment, vol.21,pp.40-45,