Driving forces in energy-related carbon dioxide emissions in east and south coastal China: commonality and variations

Transcription

1 Drvng forces n energy-related carbon doxde emssons n east and south coastal Chna: commonalty and varatons Chaochao Gao a, Yonghong Lu a, Jun Jn b, Taoyuan We c, Janyng Zhang a, Lzhong Zhu a* a Department of Envronmental Scence, Zheang Unversty, Hangzhou , Chna b School of Management, Zheang Unversty, Hangzhou , Chna c Center for Internatonal Clmate and Envronmental Research Oslo (CICERO), 0318 Oslo, Norway Abstract: As the world's top carbon doxde emtter, Chna s expected to reach ts emssons pea by East and south coastal Chna contrbute nearly one-thrd of the emssons n Chna, and therefore play a crtcal role n achevng the natonal goal of emsson control. Ths study analyzes the drvng forces of east and south coastal Chna's energy-related emssons and ther provncal characterstcs by applyng the logarthmc mean dvsa ndex method. The emssons n ths regon were found to double from 2000 to 2012, along wth three and twofold ncrease n the economy and energy consumpton. The result suggests a persstent connecton between economc growth and emsson even n ths socoeconomcally advanced regon. The per capta emssons are lower than most regons of Chna at a gven economc level, and are expected to be lower than select developed natons when reachng ther correspondng economc levels. Energy effcency has been the leadng force n reducng emsson growth, and we dfferentate the provnces nto three dstnct low-carbon developmental stages. There s no sgnfcant nfluence from ether the economc or energy structure change, ndcatng great emsson reducton potental from structure decarbonzaton especally when compared to advanced natons. These results suggest that the dual effort of enhancng energy effcency and decarbonzng the economc and energy structure would probably serve the goal of total emsson control more effectvely and effcently, and factor drven emsson reducton strateges are needed n these geographcally and socoeconomcally smlar regons. The study expands on the current nowledge by analyzng the nterprovncal commonalty and varaton of ths plot regon n Chna, and therefore provdes a stepwse vew of the emsson drvng forces for emergng economes. Keywords: decomposton analyss; CO2 emsson; drvng force; coastal Chna; provncal feature 1. Introducton Over the past decade, Chna has become the world's second largest economy and the top carbon doxde (CO2) emtter (Jos et al., 2013), attractng global concerns of ts envronmental mpact (Lu et al., 2013). Hence, Chna plays a ey role n reducng global emssons. On November 12, 2014, t too a step n pledgng to "stop ts emssons from growng by 2030 at the latest" (Schermeer, 2014). On June 30, 2015, n an offcal document submtted to the Secretarat of the Unted Natons Framewor * Correspondng author. Tel./Fax: ; Emal:zlz@zu.edu.cn. 1

2 Conventon on Clmate Change, the Chnese government solemnly commtted to cut ts CO2 emssons per unt of gross domestc product (GD) by 60 65% by 2030 relatve to ts 2005 levels, and pea CO2 emssons around 2030 and mae best efforts to pea early (UNFCCC,2015). Though the targets are clearly set, challenges reman as to how to realze the dual goals of curbng energy use and emssons whle sustanng economc growth. Gven Chna's vast geographc scale and dverse regonal developmental stages, t s essental to acqure a strategc understandng of the carbon emsson characterstcs and the underlyng drvng forces n ts dfferent regons, n order to establsh a broadly acceptable and effcent emsson reducton agenda. East and south coastal Chna, especally the coastal provnces of Shandong, Jangsu, Zheang, Fuan, and Guangdong plus Shangha muncpalty (hereafter referred to as the Regon 1 or the sx coastal provnces, Fgure 1), were the earlest regons to carry out the reform and openng up polcy snce 1978 and the plot shp for most of the naton's strategc programs. It ncludes Chna s two strategc economc zones the Yangtze Rver Delta regon ncludng the entre terrtory of Jangsu, Shangha, and Zheang, and the earl Rver Delta consstng of most parts of Guangdong and accounts for one-thrd of the total natonal emssons durng (Guan et al., 2012). It s also the regon wth the hghest energy effcency n Chna but bear the hgher emsson reducton targets set by the central government (He et al., 2013), tang up earler emsson reducton responsblty than the less developed regons (Zhou et al., 2014). Though geographcally occupyng a small area of Chna (Fgure 1), the sx coastal provnces account for nearly 30% of the natonal populaton and contrbute almost half of the natonal GD (NBSC, a). From the global perspectve, the Regon's GD s 76.2% and 19% of that of Japan and the European Unon (EU), respectvely, and t contrbutes to nearly 8% of the world's carbon emssons (IEA, 2013). It occupes twce the area of Japan or Germany and ts 1 The classfcaton of east and south coastal Chna n ths study s slghtly dfferent from that n Zhou et al. (2014), whch defned Shangha, Jangsu, and Zheang as belongng to the eastern coast and Fuan, Guangdong, and Hanan as belongng to the southern coast. Ths study focuses on the economcally developed provnces n southern and eastern costal Chna, whch were among the frst to mplement the reform and openng up polces. Shandong s ncluded as an eastern coastal provnce because t has smlar economc and energy structure as the other fve provnces (NBSC, a), and has been categorzed as an eastern costal Chna provnce on varous occasons (Fang, 2007). Hanan s excluded because t s an sland provnce wth a per capta GD below the natonal average (NBSC, a). 2

3 populaton s 3 tmes that of Japan or 79% of that of the EU. Therefore, t s an mportant regon to study the drvng forces and emsson reducton potental. Despte the Regon s mportance, none of the prevous studes, to our nowledge, has focused solely on ths regon. Song et al. (2015) analyzed the energy consumpton and carbon emssons n the Yangtze Rver Delta regon, and attrbuted ther growth manly to ncreasng economc development and populaton. Other studes looed at the ndvdual provnces under the natonal framewor, and ths may have contrbuted to the dscrepances n assessment of the provnces n dfferent studes. For example, Wang et al. (2013) found that Shangha and Guangdong, together wth Beng, attaned the hghest energy and envronmental effcency, whle Guan et al. (2014) found Guangdong and Jangsu to be the only two provnces to become cleaner n both ndvdual ndustry and economc composton. Therefore, ths study chooses the vtal yet rarely studed coastal regon, and presents a detaled analyss on the drvng forces of ts energy- related emssons. The goal s to dentfy the provncal lessons for Chna to acheve ts emsson reducton target, by provnce targeted polces and strateges. An ntegral understandng of the emsson performance and the underlyng drvng forces of the Regon not only wll help address the 8% of the world's CO2 emssons but also wll provde gudance for the less developed regons of Chna that want to follow the path to prosperty of ths coastal regon. The rest of the paper s organzed as follows. The next secton provdes a lterature revew on the drvng forces of Chna s carbon emssons. Secton 3 and secton 4 respectvely present methods and the data adopted n ths study. Secton 5 reports and dscusses the results of seven underlyng drvng forces and ther relatve contrbutons at both the regonal and provncal scale. Secton 6 derves the conclusons and the polcy mplcatons of ths study. 2. Lterature Revew revous studes have advanced the nowledge base on the carbon emsson characterstcs of Chna n the followng aspects: 2.1. The forces generally affectng energy -related CO2 emssons There s wdespread scentfc agreement that CO2 emssons often relate to four types of forces and ther combnatons: (ⅰ) economc forces ncludng economc growth and nternatonal trade; (ⅱ) energy effcency related forces, for example, 3

4 energy ntensty, per capta energy, and electrcty consumpton; (ⅲ) structure related forces, for example, the economc structure, energy structure and structure of the manufacturng ndustry; and (ⅳ) populaton-related forces such as populaton sze and household numbers, and urbanzaton rate (Mnx et al., 2011; Fan et al., 2013; Zhu and We, 2015; Wu et al., 2005; Zhang et al., 2009; Tan et al., 2011; Tunc et al., 2009; aul et al., 2004; an et al., 2010; O'Mahony et al., 2012 ) The relatve mportance of dfferent forces, and ther comparson wth developed natons Yao et al. (2014) found economc development to be the man drvng force for emsson growth n all G20 countres, whle the offsettng effect due to mproved energy effcency was especally pronounced n emergng countres le Chna. Structural change n both economc and energy structure has become ncreasngly mportant n balancng emssons n most developed economes, whereas n Chna t has been contrbutng to growth n emssons for the past two decades (Yao et al., 2014; Guan et al., 2014). Emssons mostly come from ndustry, whle the other sectors generally exhbt good performance n reducng emssons (Xu et al., 2014), and t s especally pronounced n the less developed provnces due to the utlzaton of energy-ntensve technologes (Lu et al., 2012) The energy and CO2 emsson performance and reducton potental of the dfferent regons Guan et al. (2014) found that despte of the great mprovement n energy effcency, the movement toward a more carbon-ntensve economc structure, n partcular coal-fred electrcty generaton, metal processng, and cement producton, had contrbuted postvely toward the 3% ncrease n carbon ntensty between 2002 and 2009 n Chna. On one hand, eastern and coastal Chna were found by varous studes to have the hghest energy effcency, followed by central and western Chna (Wang et al., 2013; Wang et al., 2014; Yu et al., 2012). On the other hand, Wang and We (2014) showed that no regon performed effcently n CO2 emssons, whch the authors attrbuted to the real estate boom leadng to a large number of energy-ntensve proects. Chen and Yang (2015) studed the drvng forces of CO2 emssons n Chna s 29 provnces and found that the eastern provnces showed the largest emsson growth, and suggested that emsson reducton polces should be formulated to accommodate these regonal dspartes. 4

5 The consequence allocaton of reducton targets consderng the responsblty, capacty, and potental Y et al. (2011) used a top-down model and calculated that the coastal provnces of Shangha, Shandong, and Guangdong and the northern provnces of Hebe, Shanx, and Laonng should bear a hgher reducton burden, under full consderaton of equalty, capacty, responsblty, and potental. Two addtonal coastal provnces, namely Jangsu, Zheang, and the northern provnce of Inner Mongola were recommended to shoulder hgher allocatons f potental was not taen nto consderaton. Another clusterng analyss by Yu et al. (2012) also suggested the "hgh emsson low per capta" provnces of Jangsu, Zheang, Guangdong, and Shandong should be gven the hghest reducton allocaton. Though the prevous studes used the logarthmc mean dvsa ndex (LMDI) analyss, they only analyzed the aggregate results of the entre naton or varous regons wth lttle attenton pad to nterprovncal commonaltes and dspartes n the drvng forces of carbon emssons. In addton, most such studes focused only on the economc sector, whereas the resdental sector accounts for abundant emssons and the two sectors have very dfferent drvng forces (Fan et al., 2013). In ths study, we decompose carbon emssons nto the economc sector and the resdental sector, and analyze the relatve mpacts of the seven drvng forces. 3. Methods 3.1. Estmaton of CO2 emssons The energy-related CO2 emssons were calculated followng the 2006 ICC Natonal Greenhouse Gas Inventores (ICC, 2006), as shown n Eq. (1) E NCV CC COF (1) C C ( ) where C represents the CO2 emssons of the type of energy ( for the 15 energy types ncludng raw coal,cleaned coal,other washed coal,brquettes,coe,crude ol, gasolne,erosene,desel ol,fuel ol,natural gas,lquefed petroleum gas,refnery gas,coe oven gas and other gas); E, NCV, CC, and COF represent the consumpton, the average net calorfc value, the carbon emsson coeffcent, and the carbon oxdaton factor of the th type of energy, respectvely. The fracton 44/12 s the rato of molecular weghts of CO2 and C. The COF values are recommended by the Energy Research Insttute of Chnese Natonal Development and Reform Commsson 5

6 (NDRC-ERI, 2011). Ths study apples the CC values provded by eters et al. (2006) for the 15 types of fnal energy, and assume them to be constant over the study perod LMDI decomposton A number of methods to dentfy the underlyng drvng forces on CO2 emssons have been developed, among whch the structural decomposton analyss (SDA), the ndex decomposton analyss (IDA), producton-theoretcal decomposton analyss (DA), and stochastc mpact by regresson on populaton, affluence, and technology (STIRAT) 2 models are the most well nown (Hoestra et al., 2003; Mohammad et al., 2013; Zhou et al., 2010). Zhou and Ang (2008) provded a detaled ntroducton and comparson of the varous methods. In short, SDA s based on nput output analyss n quanttatve economcs, and therefore has very hgh data requrement (such as detaled energy consumpton and producton output n each ndustral sector) (Hoestra et al., 2003). However, these data are collected every 2 3 years, therefore leadng to tme lags n polcy analyss. The DA approach requres solvng a seres of complex lnear programs, whch may be computatonally dffcult for someone who s not famlar wth lnear programmng. Besdes, t cannot estmate structural effects such as energy or economc structure, whch are dentfed to have sgnfcant effects n numerous studes. As a wdely appled IDA method, LMDI estmates the effect of ndvdual factors through the weghted average logarthmc changes of ts relevant varables (Ang et al., 1998). Ths method can run on an annual bass owng to the generally easy avalablty of the requred data, and s perfect n decomposton based on multple sectors wthout unexplaned resduals. It s capable of accommodatng zero values (ths s preferred to STIRSAT and other IDA methods), and easy to be adapted n studes and nterpret results (Ang, 2004). After careful consderaton of the theoretcal foundaton, data requrement, decomposton form, and some relevant ndex propertes, LMDI method was chosen for ths study. Decomposton of the energy-related CO2 emssons (C) was frst put forward by the Kaya dentty n Eq. (2) (Kaya, 1990): 2 Strctly speang, STIRAT s a statstcal method rather than a decomposton method. Detz and Rosa (1997) ntroduced the stochastc varables to the wdely adopted IAT dentty whch classfes all factors that have effects on the envronment as three drvers: populaton sze, affluence as represented by per capta consumpton or producton, and technology. 6

7 C E G C E G (2) where E s the energy use, G s the gross domestc product, and s the populaton sze. When we apply the rule behnd the equaton to every sector, Eq. (2) can be extended for multple sectors n a regon as C ef ef E G G E C n, C E E G G E E E n E G G E ef n, E n G G es n e ns g er ur p where,, stand for the economc sector, energy type, and resdence type, respectvely, wth = 1 denotng urban and = 2 denotng rural resdence. Therefore, E, for example, stands for the consumpton of fuel n sector. The terms ef, g, ns, e, and es represent carbon emsson factor, the per capta GD, share of the GD for a specfc sector, energy ntensty of the sector, and the share of certan type of energy n that sector; er, ur, represent the per capta energy consumpton of rural or urban resdence, share of the rural or urban populaton, and populaton scale 3. In Eq. (3),we frst decompose the aggregate carbon emsson of a provnce nto two parts: emssons n economc sectors and emssons n resdental sectors; then each tem of the two n parts s further decomposed nto fve drvng forces (.e., energy structure ( ef ) 4, E energy effcency ( G G ), economc structure ( G (3) ), economc development ( G ), and populaton sze ()), and four drvng forces (.e.,energy structure, per capta E E n 212 resdental energy consumpton ( E ),urbanzaton ( ) populaton ()), respectvely. 3 Detaled descrptons of all the parameters are provded n Table A1. 4 Strctly speang, ths expresson refers to energy structure (E n/en) multpled by the correspondng carbon emsson factors (ef ). Snce the carbon emsson factor of each energy s a fxed parameter durng the study perod, for the smplfcaton of dscusson, t s combned wth the actual energy structure (E n/en) to represent the drvng force of energy structure. 7

8 Snce both parts nclude the energy structure effects and populaton sze effect, the nne drvng forces can be merged nto seven. To quanttatvely analyze the relatve contrbuton of the dfferent forces wth tme, the LMDI model (Ang, 2005) s appled to Eq. (3). Therefore, the change of CO2 emssons from year t to year t + 1 can be decomposed nto seven drvng forces n the followng form C C C C C C C C C C C (4) t1 t g ns e er ur p ( es esr ) The seven drvng forces 5 are used to represent the four types of effects descrbed n the ntroducton, and the results are calculated usng the equatons lsted n Appendx A. Ths study ncludes sx economc sectors (.e., agrculture, ndustry, constructon, transport,storage, and post, wholesale and retal trade, and hotels and restaurants; and other servce sectors). Based on the above two equatons, ths study calculates the ndustral versus resdental CO2 emssons separately consderng the dfferent drvng forces behnd ther energy consumptons. 4. Data sources and processng Annual GD and sectoral data for the provnces between 2000 and 2012 were obtaned from the provncal Statstcal Yearboos (Statstcs Bureau of Fuan, Guangdong, Jangsu, Shandong, Shangha and Zheang, ). All data were converted to the 2000 constant prces by usng provncal GD deflaton factors. Sectoral shares n GD were calculated by dvdng the sum of the sectoral GD by the total GD. Data on the annual energy consumpton by the sx economc sectors as well as the rural and urban resdents were obtaned from the Chnese Energy Statstc Yearboos (NBSC, b). Then, energy-related CO2 emssons of each economc sector or resdental consumpton were calculated from two parts: 1) drect CO2 emssons from the drect use of the 15 fuels, as estmated based on Eq. (1); and 2) ndrect emssons from heat and electrcty consumpton, calculated from fuel combuston n the power plants and then redstrbuted to each sectoral and resdental consumpton proportonal to ther consumptons gven n the energy balance tables. opulaton and urbanzaton rates are obtaned from the Chna Statstc Yearboo (NBSC, a) and verfed wth the Ffth Natonal Census dataset (Ln, 2010). The populaton related data (such as per capta GD or per capta CO2 emssons) of a 5 Detaled defntons are provded n Table A2. 8

9 provnce was represented by the resdental populaton, rather than the regstered populaton, at the end of a calendar year, snce the former s more closely related to resdental energy consumpton. Although there have been some crtcsm about the relablty of Chnese offcal statstcs (Feng et al., 2009; eters et al., 2007; Snton, 2001), t s the man source of the naton's economc and energy data, and has been wdely used n dfferent studes on Chna's economy and envronment. Therefore, ths study uses the above statstcal data wthout dscussng ts possble uncertantes. 5. Results and Dscusson 5.1. Regonal emsson trend and drvng forces Total emssons. Total CO2 emssons of the Regon have doubled from the begnnng of ths century (Fgure 2A). Ths s n lne wth the three and twofold ncrease n GD and energy consumpton, respectvely, suggestng a persstent connecton between economc development and energy consumpton. As the poneer regon to carry out the reform and openng up polcy n Chna, these provnces are heavly nvolved n manufacturng and nternatonal tradng. For example, n 2012 the Regon s mports and exports reached US$1122 bllon and US$1560 bllon, respectvely, accountng for 61% and 76% of the naton's total amounts, and 6.0% and 8.5% of the world's share. Its producton of synthetc fbers, clothng, color televson, and ntegrated crcuts contrbuted to 90%, 71%, 79%, and 81% of the total natonal producton (NBSC, a). Energy wse, coal contrbutes on average 60% of total prmary energy consumpton and t s manly used n the thermal power plants to generate electrcty. Hgh-agglomeraton manufacturng leads to a large proporton of energy use n the energy-ntensve ndustres. For nstance, n 2008, the manufacture of computers, communcaton equpment, and other electronc equpment, manufacture of textles, plastc products, and educatonal and sports goods n ths Regon contrbuted to 87%, 78%, 65%, and 78% of ther correspondng natonal fnal energy consumpton (NBSC, 2011). Energy ntensty s about 27% lower than the natonal average, but stll 1.5 tmes hgher than the world average, or 2.9 tmes hgher than that of the Unted States. Gven Chna s ncreasng partcpaton n the global economc chan, and the domnant role the Regon has been playng, t s essental to deploy effectve regonal mtgaton strateges to further see and adapt to sustanably strong and healthy development. 9

10 On the other hand, the annual emsson growth has gradually slowed down snce For example, n 2012 the emsson growth of Shangha, Fuan, and Guangdong dropped 3.8, 3.3, and 2.8 percentage ponts, respectvely, compared to the prevous year. As a result, the actual ncrease rate of Shangha was only 0.38%. Though the slowdown of emsson growth snce 2005 s partally a reflecton of the economc downturn assocated wth the global fnancal crss, t also ndcates that the mplementaton of the Eleventh Fve -Year lan on energy savngs and emsson reducton has been worng (Le et al., 2011). Impacts of drvng forces. As shown n Fgure 2B, economc development and energy effcency are the leadng forces that contrbute postvely (wth a cumulatve mpact of 99.4%) and negatvely (-24.8%) to emsson growth, respectvely. opulaton sze, per capta resdental energy consumpton and economc structure also contrbute to emsson growth, and mproved energy structure generally offset emsson growth. But the overall mpacts from these forces are much less sgnfcant. Durng our study perod, the energy effcency of the Regon has dropped 19% whle both economc and energy structures have been relatvely stable. For example, the structure of the sx economc sectors changes from 11:44:6:8:12:20 n 2000 to 4:52:5:8:12:19 n 2012; coal and ol occuped about 80% of the total energy consumpton throughout the tme. Therefore the structure forces have not been effectve n addressng carbon ntensty, mang energy effcency the domnatng force to nhbt emsson growth. One reason for ths dfferent pattern of change could be t s hard and tme consumng to adust structures whle relatvely easy to mprove energy effcency. The other reason could be related to the prevous natonal clmate polces that focus on reducng carbon ntensty, whch has not been strct enough to motvate ndustres to relocate ther busness and change the structure, and could not compensate for potental emsson growth due to economc development. Ths result suggests a great space for future mprovement n the structure related forces. er capta emssons. er capta emssons ncrease contnuously durng the study perod. Nevertheless, at a gven economc level ther per capta emssons are lower than most provnces n Chna (Fgure 3A). From a global perspectve, the economc level of the Regon falls far behnd those of the selected developed natons (Fgure 3B), and a prevous study shows that economy at ths level s close to the developed natons such as US and UK n ther early 20th century, or France and Japan 10

11 n ther mddle 20th century (Fgure 1 of Jaob et al., 2014). The same study also showed that the emssons versus economc traectory of Chna has been closely tracng the hstorcal emssons of France and Japan at the same economc level, the latter of whch contnued to grow untl ts correspondng economc level reached around US$15,000. Above that economc level, the traectory of all developed natons n the selecton began to turn downward, though at dfferent speeds and consstency (Jaob et al., 2014). roected nto the future, the per capta emssons of the Regon can be expected to be lower than the selected developed natons. Wang and We (2014) found an N-shaped Kuznets curve between ndustral CO2 emssons effcency and GD per capta for 30 Chnese captal ctes, whch showed an ntal effcency enhancement followed by a stage of effcency decrease or decelerated ncrease, and then a further effcency ncrease once the ncome reaches above roughly US$12000.The deceleraton or decrease of CO2 effcency was attrbuted to the vast establshment of energy-ntensve ndustral proects durng the nfrastructure development stage. Snce all sx provnces except Shandong have reached or exceeded ths crtcal nflecton pont, t s expected to see greater effcency mprovement n ther CO2 emssons n the near future, and therefore the possblty of ther reachng the developed world's human developmental standard wth lower per capta emssons. As shown n Fgure 3B, the emsson versus economc development traectory of these sx provnces shows a reversal or levelng off of emsson growth when the GD per capta gets above US$10,000, whch s n general agreement wth the fndngs of Wang et al. (2014) and s suffcently lower than that of the developed natons shown n Jacob et al. (2014). 5.2 rovncal characterstcs The annual growth rate of energy-related CO2 emsson follows the followng order: Shangha (3.78%) < Guangdong (7.74%) < Zheang (9.45%) < Jangsu (9.92%) < Fuan (11.86%) < Shandong (13.15%) (Table S1). On the bass of the three crtera of per capta GD, CO2 emssons ntensty, and the annual growth rate of energy-related CO2 emsson, and applyng the K-means cluster analyss (Kanungo et al., 2002) usng SSS19.0, the sx provnces are dvded nto three low-carbon developmental stages: stage I wth the fastest growng annual emssons, hghest emsson ntensty, and lowest economc development level among the sx provnces; 11

12 stage II wth medan emsson growth and emsson ntensty transtng from hgher to lower; and stage III wth slow growth n emssons, hgh level of low carbon development, and economc development. Stage I provnces Stage I provnces nclude Shandong and Fuan. Shandong has seen the largest and most rapd ncrease n the total emssons among the sx provnces (Fgure 4), and t contrbutes >30% towards the entre emssons of the regon. The hgh CO2 emssons are most lely caused by the large share of coal n ts energy consumpton (Table S2), the small share of ts tertary ndustry (Table S3), and the hgh energy ntensty of ts ndustry sector (Table S4). Tang the year 2010 for example, 92% of the electrcty generated by the thermal power plants n Shandong was produced by coal; the share of GD from the tertary ndustry was only 33.8%, and energy ntensty of ts ndustry sector was almost 3 tmes that of Shangha. Emsson growth has consstently outgrown economc development n both provnces, snce the postve forces contrbute to the emssons at ncreasng rates, and the negatve contrbutons of energy effcency s barely notceable (Table 1). Energy effcency actually ncreased the emssons up to 2009 before t began to offset the emsson growth (Fgure 4). In Fuan, the energy structure has been more effectve n offsettng emsson growth, whch s manly due to the ncreased share of clean energy (Fuan Development and Reform Commsson, 2011). Stage II provnces. Stage II provnces nclude Jangsu, Zheang and Guangdong. Smlar to stage I provnces, economc development s the sngle most mportant force drvng up the emssons (Fgure 4). Energy effcency s the leadng force n slowng down the emsson growth, followed by energy structure. The combned mpact ranges from -22.4% to -58.9%, much more sgnfcant than the stage I provnces. opulaton sze and per capta resdental energy consumpton begn to tae vsble sgnfcant roles (n the range 12.8% 33.8%) n drvng up the emssons, and the combned effects have been ncreasng over the past several years (Table 1). Economc structure stll contrbutes postvely to the emssons, except for Zheang where the cumulatve contrbuton (1.7%) has become neglgble. Stage III provnces Wth an annual emsson ncrease rate of 3.78%, Shangha s categorzed as a stage III provnce. In Shangha, carbon ntensty has dropped by 55% snce 2000, and t s the only place where the emssons nduced by economc development has been nearly canceled out (about 97%) by mproved energy 12

13 effcency (Fgure 4). opulaton sze emerges as the next mportant force drvng up the emssons, whch s somewhat smlar to the pattern found n the developed countres (Detz et al., 1997; Xu et al., 2014). A wea decouplng between economc development and carbon emssons appears to emerge, whch may be attrbuted to the substantal mprovement n energy effcency. The hgh energy effcency s lely due to the sgnfcant reducton n energy ntensty of the ndustry sector (Table S4) and to a lesser degree to the ncreasng share of the servce ndustry, whch s around 10% 18% hgher than the other fve provnces (Table S3). In fact, Shangha s found to be the only place n ths regon whose economc structure has been contrbutng negatvely to emssons. The 8.0% postve contrbuton of the energy structure s, however, beyond expectaton for provnces at ths stage. The same postve effect s also found n Jangsu (3.4%), ndcatng an overall strong resstance and even rebound n energy structure change durng the study perod. 13

14 Table 1. Contrbuton of the seven drvng forces to the overall CO2 emsson change n the sx provnces from 2000 to Economc development opulaton sze Economc structure Energy effcency Energy structure er capta energy consumpton Impact Trend Impact Trend (%) (%) Urbanzaton 6 Impact Trend Impact Trend Impact Trend Impact Trend Impact Trend (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) Shangha(III) Guangdong(II) Jangsu(II) Zheang(II) Fuan(I) Shandong(I) Blac and red numbers ndcate postve and negatve contrbuton to emsson ncrease, respectvely. " ", " ", and " " ndcate that the relatve contrbuton to emsson ncrease has ncreased, decreased, or remaned constant, respectvely. Therefore, " +" means the frst negatvely then postvely contrbute to the emsson growth, and " " means the mpact frst decreases and then ncreases. 6 Only the change n resdental energy related CO2 emssons s counted towards the contrbuton of urbanzaton. 14

15 Conclusons and polcy mplementatons Ths study has shown that the total energy-related CO2 emsson of the east and south coastal Chna has doubled from 2000 to 2012 despte substantal mprovement n energy effcency. Ths ndcates that, n spte of the government s ntenton to lessen the couplng between economc development and emsson growth, current polces emphaszng carbon ntensty reducton are nsuffcent to acheve such a goal. er capta emssons have frst ncreased and then leveled off over the past years snce 2000, suggestng the potental of ths regon to acheve the developed world's human developmental standards wth lower per capta emssons. Economc development and energy effcency are found to be the leadng forces contrbutng postvely and negatvely to emsson growth, respectvely, whch s n agreement wth prevous fndngs at the natonal level. opulaton sze, per capta resdental energy consumpton and economc structure also contrbute to emsson growth, and mproved energy structure generally offset emsson growth. But the overall mpacts from these forces are much less sgnfcant. At the provncal scale, however, the sgns and relevance of these nfluences vary, and the provnces were categorzed nto three developmental stages by cluster analyss. Several general pattern and assocated polcy recommendatons are drawn from these results, n the hope of fndng the step-by-step connecton between the advanced and less developed regons. Frst of all, energy effcency played the determnant role n dfferentatng the low-carbon development stages. Its effect vares from lac of mprovement n stage I provnces to offset 15% 48% of emssons growth n stage II provnces, and further to nearly cancel economc-nduced emssons n stage III provnces. These results suggest that, although the emssons have ncreased and may contnue to ncrease for a certan perod, polces on carbon ntensty reducton dd mae a postve and fast mpact. Targeted measures on energy effcency enhancement could serve as the tmely steps for emsson reducton, and should be developed or renforced n all sectors, partcularly n the ndustry sector. Ths not only apples to the stage I and stage II provnces n the Regon but s partcularly mportant also for the vast maorty of the other provnces followng the footsteps of coastal Chna, and the technology and experence developed n the Regon could be fully utlzed. Second, the structural decarbonzaton effect has not been utlzed. Shangha was found to be the only place among the sx provnces to beneft slghtly from economc 15

16 structural change to reduce carbon emssons. Natonwde, Guangdong and Jangsu were found to be the only two provnces whose producton structure became greener, whle Shangha actually suffered 16% loss n producton structure decarbonzaton. Despte the dscrepancy, a smlar concluson can be drawn that the overall economc structure effect has not been fully realzed ether n ths socoeconomcally and technologcally advanced regon or for the naton as a whole. Therefore, strategc plans to promote structural change toward less energy-ntensve servces and hgh value-added goods as well as swtch to low-carbon energy structure should buy addtonal emsson reducton potental when the margnal effect of the energy effcency decreases. Last but not least, under the new natonal goal of reachng ts carbon emssons pea by 2030, ndvdual regons should tae dfferentated measures to decrease CO2 emssons orented to the local condtons. For example, snce over 90% of the coal and fossl ol n the Regon s mported ether from wthn Chna or from aboard, t s n a good poston to mprove the energy structure by substtutng some mported coal wth natural gas; ts coastal locaton also maes t the best place to utlze renewables such as wnd and tdal energy. Ths would substantally lghten the energy outsource burden and release notable emsson space for the rest of the naton. In summary, east and south coastal Chna are the plot shp for most of the naton's strategc programs. The stage structure and the provncal commonalty as well as dfference n the emsson drvng forces found n ths study would provde practcal gudance for the rest of Chna. Our results suggest the dual efforts of structural de-carbonzaton and energy effcency mprovement wll help Chna to avod another potental boom n emssons whle ts less developed regons chase economc prosperty. The earler ths couplng strategy s mplemented, the better t would serve the pea emsson control goal. Loong beyond Chna, the results may also shed some lght on other developng regons that loo upon east Chna to mplement voluntary emsson reductons whle achevng the enttled human development standard. Some lmtatons of ths study also exst. Ths study only provdes an ntal nterpretaton of the energy-related CO2 emssons based on the decomposton method, and t s confned to the perod from 2000 to 2012 due to the lac of statstcal data. Gven the general tme lag between polcy mplementaton and the 16

17 correspondng mpacts, future research consderng the dynamcs of the force at a longer tme frame should provde more nsght for polcy recommendatons. Acnowledgments The authors wsh to than Dr. John Moore and Dr. Alan Roboc for the comments and frutful dscussons durng the preparaton of the manuscrpt. The authors are also grateful to the three anonymous revewers for ther very helpful suggestons on mprovng ths paper. Ths wor was supported by the Natonal Key Basc Research rogram of Chna (2015CB953601), the Clean Development Mechansm rogram n Chna ( ), and Natonal Natural Scence Foundaton of Chna ( ). 17

18 Appendx A Table A1. The meanngs and settngs of all parameters used n calculaton. arameter C E G C E NCV CC COF C C Meanngs and settngs Total energy-related CO2 emssons(t) Total energy consumpton(t of standard coal equvalent) Gross domestc product(gd)(yuan, at 2000 constant prce ) opulaton sze(persons) CO2 emssons of the th type of energy(t) Consumpton of the th type of energy(t of standard coal equvalent) Average net calorfc value of the th type of energy (KJ/g or KJ/m 3 ) Carbon emsson coeffcent of the th type of energy (g/gj or m 3 /GJ) Carbon oxdaton factor of the th type of energy = 1 denotes urban and = 2 denotes rural Sum of the types of energy-related CO2 emssons(t) Sum of urban and rural resdental drect energy consumpton related CO2 emssons(t) ef Carbon emsson factor of the th type of energy(t/t or t/ m 3 ) E Consumpton of energy n sector (t or m 3 ) E Drect consumpton of energy n urban or rural(t or m 3 ) E n g (= G ) Total energy consumpton of rural or urban resdence(t of standard coal equvalent) Urban or rural populaton sze(persons) Sector (economc or resdental sector ) whch consumes energy er capta GD (Yuan/ capta, at 2000 constant prce) ns(= G E e (= ) G Share of the GD for a specfc economc sector ) Energy ntensty of a specfc economc sector (t of G standard coal equvalent) esn(= ef ) E er(= ) ur(= ) E E Share of certan type of energy n economc or resdental sector(t of standard coal equvalent) er capta energy consumpton of rural or urban resdence(t of standard coal equvalent) Share of the rural or urban populaton 18

19 Table A2. The seven drvng forces of energy-related CO2 emssons Force Defnton Unt of measurement Economc development ( C g ) er capta GD, meanng the change of energy-related CO2 emssons ntroduced by economc growth 10,000 Yuan per capta per year(at 2000 constant prces) Economc structure ( C ns ) Share of the sx ndvdual sectors n the total GD. The sx sectors nclude: a) agrculture,b) ndustry,c) constructon,d) transport, storage and post,e) wholesale, retal trade and hotel, restaurants,and f) % other servce sectors. Ths factor represents the potental change of carbon ntensty due to structure change. Energy structure Share of ndvdual energy type n the total energy consumpton of a % ( ( Ce s Cesr ) producton or resdental sector, represents the contrbuton towards CO2 emssons from the change n both the ndustral and muncpal energy mx. Energy effcency( C e ) Energy consumpton of producton sectors dvded by GD, whch Tce per 10,000 Yuan (at 2000 ndcates the change of energy-related CO2 emssons due to the energy constant prces) ntensty of economc actvtes and resdental consumpton. er capta resdental energy consumpton C ) er capta resdental energy consumpton used drectly for lghtng, heatng, and coong, etc. ( er opulaton sze( Cp ) The resdental populatons (nstead of the regstered populaton) at the end of a year, whch represents the contrbuton of populaton growth to CO2 emssons change Urbanzaton( Cur ) The rato of urban vs. rural populaton, whch means the change n drect resdental energy consumpton and therefore the related CO2 emssons due to the varyng urban vs. rural populaton rato. Tce per capta number % 19

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