Low Carbon Development Pathways and Priorities for Turkey

Transcription

1 THIS REPORT WAS PREPARED WITH THE COLLABORATION OF WWF-TURKEY AND ISTANBUL POLICY CENTER - SABANCI UNIVERSITY - STIFTUNG MERCATOR INITIATIVE. Low Carbon Development Pathways and Prortes for Turkey

2 WWF-TURKEY WWF-Turkey s the natonal offce of the World Wde Fund for Nature (WWF); one of the world s oldest and foremost ndependent nature conservaton organzatons. WWF-Turkey s hstory goes as far back as 1975, when ts parent organzaton, Doğal Hayatı Koruma Derneğ (DHKD) was founded. Wth over f ve mllon supporters worldwde and an actve presence n more than 100 countres, the msson of WWF s to stop the degradaton of the planet s natural envronment and to buld a future n whch humans lve n harmony wth nature. WWF- Turkey focuses ts work on two man areas, nature conservaton and the reducton of ecologcal footprnt. For more nformaton, please vst ISTANBUL POLICY CENTER Istanbul Polcy Center s an ndependent polcy research center wth a global outreach. Its msson s to foster academc research n socal scences and ts applcaton to polcy makng. IPC ams to provde decson makers, opnon leaders, academcs, and the general publc wth nnovatve and objectve analyses on domestc and foregn polcy ssues. IPC has expertse n a wde range of areas, ncludng but not lmted to- Turkey-EU-U.S. relatons, educaton, clmate change, poltcal and socal trends n Turkey and ther mpact on cvl socety and local governance. For more nformaton, please vst pc.sabancunv.edu. Authors Analyss Prof. Dr. Ernç Yeldan (Blkent Unversty) Assoc. Prof. Dr. Ebru Voyvoda (Mddle East Techncal Unversty) Report Mustafa Özgür Berke (WWF-Turkey) Dr. Ümt Şahn (Istanbul Polcy Center-Sabancı Unversty) Funda Gacal (WWF-Turkey) Project Advsor Dr. Felx Chrstan Matthes (Öko-Insttut) Contrbutors Assoc. Prof. Dr. Semra Cert Mazlum (Marmara Unversty) Dr. Ethemcan Turhan (Sabancı Unversty Istanbul Polcy Center) Desgn Applcaton Modern Tmes Producton Edtor Özgür Gürbüz (WWF-Turkey) Prntng Bon Matbaa No part of ths publcaton may be reproduced or reprnted wthout the permsson of WWF-Turkey. Text and graphcs: WWF-Turkey and Istanbul Polcy Center, 2015 WWF-Turkey Büyük Postane Cad. No:19 Kat:5 Bahçekapı Istanbul Sabancı Unversty Istanbul Polcy Center Bankalar Cad. No:2, Mnerva Han Karaköy Istanbul Cover Photo: Getty Images Turkey ISBN:

3 Low Carbon Development Pathways and Prortes for Turkey Clmate-Frendly Development n Turkey: A Macro Level Evaluaton

4 Robert Ingelhart- Getty Images Turkey 2

5 Low Carbon Development Pathways and Prortes for Turkey Contents Foreword CLIMATE CHANGE AND TURKEY Clmate Change Impacts of Clmate Change How Is Turkey Impacted by Clmate Change? 2 C Target/Remanng n the Safe Zone Global Efforts for Mtgatng Clmate Change Turkey and Internatonal Clmate Polces LOW CARBON DEVELOPMENT PATHWAYS FOR TURKEY Methodology Carbon Budget For the 2 C Target: What Could Turkey s Emsson Reducton Target Be? Instruments for Clmate Polcy and Ther Macroeconomc Implcatons 2 C Pathway for Turkey Tmng of Clmate Polcy: The Early Brd Gets the Worm RECOMMENDATIONS FOR TURKEY AHEAD OF COP21 APPENDIX: METHODOLOGY Computable General Equlbrum Model for the Turksh Economy Analytcal Structure of the Model Data Set Reference Scenaros

6 TURKEY ACCOUNTS FOR 0.94% OF GLOBAL EMISSIONS. SINCE 1990, IT HAS INCREASED ITS GHG EMISSIONS BY 110.4%. 4

7 Low Carbon Development Pathways and Prortes for Turkey FOREWORD The average global temperature rose by 0.85 C from 1880 to Clmate scentsts ndcate that ths ncrease has been caused by human actvtes. Should greenhouse gas emssons contnue to ncrease at ts current rate, the temperature rse may reach 4 C n 2060, and 6 C n Partes to the Unted Natons Framework Conventon on Clmate Change (UNFCCC), ncludng Turkey, offcally acknowledged ths scentfc fact and set the lmt for the temperature ncrease at 2 C n an effort to constran the effects of the temperature rse on natural and human systems. Scentsts and decson makers agree that clmate change s one of the most serous problems facng humanknd. 195 contractng states to the UNFCCC wll meet n Pars n December 2015 to fnd a soluton to ths problem and to negotate the new clmate agreement that s ntended to replace the Kyoto Protocol after Pror to the Clmate Summt to be held n Pars at the end of ths year, each country was nvted to determne, n accordance wth ts hstorcal responsblty n the GHG emssons growth and wth ts current capacty, ts natonal contrbutons to meet the 2 C target and to safeguard ecosystems and communtes from the devastatng mpacts of clmate change. Turkey s GHG emssons amount to 4 of the cumulatve hstorcal global emssons and to 0.94% of the global emssons n Turkey s not among the bggest polluters. However, t has ncreased ts emssons by 110.4% snce As t attempts to determne ts natonal contrbuton to clmate change mtgaton, Turkey faces three crtcal questons: 1. What responsblty les wth Turkey wthn the scope of the 2 C target, and what could ts emsson reducton target be? 2. What polces could be pursued n order to acheve the requred emsson reducton? 3. What knd of an mpact could these polces have on macroeconomc ndcators? What are the costs of mplementng and not mplementng these polces? Ths study, prepared wth the collaboraton of Istanbul Polcy Center and the precous contrbutons of Prof. Dr. Ernç Yeldan and Assoc. Prof. Dr. Ebru Voyvoda, seeks answers to the above-mentoned questons. The results of ths analyss suggest that Turkey can keep ts GHG emssons n check and better manage rsks ncludng those pertanng to energy securty and mport dependence n energy by ntatng a transformaton n ts emsson ntensve ndustres wth a focus on renewable energy sources and energy savngs. In ths regards, tmng s of key mportance. The sooner the transformaton s ntated, the more postve mpacts t wll have on the economy. The success of clmate change mtgaton efforts wll depend not only on actors such as the U.S. and Chna, but also on developng countres lke Turkey, whose emssons are rapdly ncreasng. We hope that ths study wll lght the way for the partes and decson makers that have a say n clmate change polces. Uğur Bayar Charman of the Board of Drectors WWF-Turkey 5

8 THE INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY WARNS THAT TWO THIRDS OF FOSSIL FUEL RESERVES SHOULD REMAIN UNDERGROUND IN ORDER TO LIMIT THE global TEMPERATURE RISE TO 2 C. 6

9 Low Carbon Development Pathways and Prortes for Turkey FOREWORD In addton to beng the most mportant ecologcal problem threatenng our planet and the future of humanty, clmate change deeply mpacts the global economy. Accordng to the Internatonal Energy Agency (IEA), the fact that 80% of global energy supply s provded by fossl fuels and the growng energy demand lead to a contnued rse n GHG emssons. The IEA warns that two thrds of the world s fossl fuel reserves should reman underground and a structural transformaton towards low carbon technologes should be ntated n order to lmt the temperature rse to 2 C. Undoubtedly, clmate change s one of the most serous problems of the globalzng world. Then, how are we gong to mtgate clmate change? What can we do? For the success of mtgaton efforts, we need to halt, at the global level, the tendency of economc growth and socal development to follow the same trajectory as the GHG emssons growth. In other words, we need to decarbonse the economy. To that end, we should enhance energy effcency, elmnate fossl fuel subsdes and ncrease the share of renewables ncludng wnd and solar energy n the power producton mx. Turkey s hstorcal responsblty n clmate change nducng GHG emssons s low, but t s a country wth rapdly ncreasng emssons. Due to the acceleratng ncrease n developng country emssons n recent years, emsson reductons merely n ndustralzed Western countres are no longer suffcent for clmate change mtgaton. For ths reason, Turkey should constran, alongsde other developng countres wth rapdly growng economes ncludng Chna and Inda, ts fossl fuel use and GHG emssons, and contrbute to nternatonal clmate polces. Even though Turkey has, to date, made sgnfcant preparatons towards clmate change mtgaton, t has nether been able to keep the growng GHG emssons n check, nor has t played an actve role n nternatonal clmate polces. However, as also stated by Presdent Erdoğan n hs speech at the Unted Natons Clmate Change Leaders Summt n New York n 2014, Turkey has been preparng to take part n and make ts natonal contrbuton to the new clmate regme to be agreed on at the Conference of the Partes, whch wll be held n Pars at the end of ths year. It s of utmost mportance that countres base ther emsson reducton targets for clmate change mtgaton on scentfc research and measure the economc mplcatons of the necessary polcy nstruments. In these efforts, t s also vtal that contrbutons from all relevant partes, ncludng state nsttutons and organzatons, academcs, specalsts, busness crcles and cvl socety, be ensured. Innovatve, realstc, vable and effectve polces can be desgned only through flterng the requred results from a wde range of analyses wth dverse methods. Ths report, prepared wth the collaboraton of Istanbul Polcy Center-Sabancı Unversty Stftung Mercator Intatve and WWF-Turkey, sets off to realze ths goal. The fndngs of the long researches and analyses carred out by two valuable researchers, Prof. Dr. Ernç Yeldan and Assoc. Prof. Dr. Ebru Voyvoda, show us that Turkey s fulflment of ts responsblty to contrbute to clmate change mtgaton s feasble also from an economc pont of vew, and that a clmate-frendly and decarbonsng economy may pave the way for green growth n Turkey as well. I hope ths stmulatng and useful report prepared wth academc rgour wll encourage a collectve, scentfc and soluton-orented debate on the ssue of clmate change. Fuat Keyman Istanbul Polcy Center, Drector 7

10 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Scentsts and decson makers agree that clmate change s the bggest problem ever faced by humanknd. Partes to the Unted Natons Framework Conventon on Clmate Change (UNFCCC), ncludng 195 contractng states and the European Unon, wll meet n Pars n December 2015 and negotate the new clmate agreement that s expected to replace the Kyoto Protocol after Pror to the 21st Conference of the Partes to the UNFCCC (COP21) n Pars, the Unted Natons called on each state to specfy ts future contrbutons to the efforts to keep the global average temperature rse below 2 C and to safeguard ecosystems and communtes from the devastatng mpacts of clmate change. Countres are expected to determne ther contrbutons on the bass of ther hstorcal responsbltes n the GHG emssons growth and ther current capactes. Ths analyss brngs up three crtcal questons that Turkey should seek answers to, as t attempts to determne ts natonal contrbuton to clmate change mtgaton: -What could Turkey s responsblty and ts emsson reducton target be wthn the scope of the 2 C target? -What knd of a polcy package could be mplemented n order to acheve the requred emsson reducton? - What could be the mpact of these polces on macroeconomc ndcators? What are the costs of mplementng and not mplementng these polces? In order to avod the devastatng mpacts of clmate change, global carbon emssons should not exceed 2,900 GtCO2. Ths s referred to as the carbon budget. 65% of ths budget (that s, 1,900 GtCO2) had been used up as of Should the current upward trend n emssons contnue, the remanng 1,000 GtCO2 wll have been emtted before To stay wthn the 2 C target, global carbon neutralty wll need to be acheved sometme between 2055 and 2070, and total global greenhouse gas emssons need to shrnk to net zero some tme between 2080 and Ths study dentfed Turkey s share n the remanng carbon budget based on mnmum hstorcal responsblty and maxmum development needs. In ths respect, n order to fulfl ts responsblty wthn the scope of the 2 C target, Turkey should reduce ts cumulatve carbon emssons by 2,980 MtCO2 untl 2030 relatve to the reference scenaro. Projectons suggest that Turkey s CO2 emssons, whch amounted to 363 MtCO2 n 2013, wll reach 851 MtCO2 by 2030 under hgh growth scenaros, and 659 MtCO2 by the same year under realstc growth scenaros. In ths study, hgh growth scenaros wll be assessed under the Offcal Plans Scenaro, and more realstc growth scenaros under the Busness-as-Usual (BaU) Scenaro. In order for Turkey to fulfl ts responsblty regardng the 2 C target, ts annual CO2 emssons should reach a peak level of 390 MtCO2 by 2020, and gradually decrease thereafter down to 340 MtCO2 (the 2010 level) by What polcy nstruments Turkey wll employ to meet the 2 C target and what knd of macroeconomc mplcatons these polcy nstruments wll have are the key questons that call for answers wth respect to the formulaton of clmate polces. Under a scenaro called the Clmate Polcy Package, ths analyss dentfed three man polcy nstruments : -Carbon tax. -Use of carbon tax revenues for electrcty generaton from renewables by means of a renewable energy nvestment fund. -Autonomous effcency gans (.e., dependng on technologcal advances and market condtons, and not on any delberate energy effcency polces). If these polcy tools are put nto practce, the annual CO2 emssons mght be 506 MtCO2 n Ths s 23% less than the level projected regardng the Busness-as-Usual Scenaro. Ths means that t s possble to ensure a 20% decrease n the carbon emsson ntensty (annual CO2 emssons/gdp) of the economy. 8

11 Low Carbon Development Pathways and Prortes for Turkey Under the Clmate Polcy Package, the level of CO2 emssons n 2030 s estmated to be 40% lower than the projectons regardng the Offcal Plans Scenaro. Ths proves the crtcal mportance of the assumptons made when dentfyng a reference emsson growth pathway. When assessng the contrbutons of countres that adopt a baselne scenaro target, one should consder how realstc and sound the emsson values projected n the reference scenaro are. The Clmate Polcy Package entals a notable transton from natural gas and coal to solar and wnd energy n the energy mx. It foresees that ths transton wll lead to a 25% declne n coal mports and a 35% declne n natural gas mports, relatve to the reference scenaro. The gans cted above come wth a cost. Accordng to the results of the model, the GDP growth n the perod leadng up to 2020 wll be 3.3%, nstead of 4%, as a consequence of the polcy package. It s estmated that the gap between the projected growth rates regardng the Clmate Polcy Package and those regardng the reference scenaro wll narrow after the year 2025, eventually dsappearng n The model results pont to a declne n employment rates parallel wth the declne n the GDP growth rates. It may be possble to regulate the dstrbuton of natonal ncome through socal polcy packages and to mtgate the negatve mpacts by managng the fluctuatons n employment. The analyss ndcates that the margnal cost of abatng 1 kg CO2 hovers around 7 and 23 US$ cents. Ths s rather a margnal cost consderng that an emsson reducton of up to 25% relatve to the reference scenaro can be acheved at the cost of a tax burden correspondng to 1.2% of the total GDP. Gven the benefts of such a structural transformaton that wll reduce dependence on mported coal and gas n the energy mx and expedte the transton from fossl fuels to domestc renewable sources, ths cost may be regarded as farly reasonable. Under the Clmate Polcy Package, t wll be possble to reduce carbon emssons by a total of 1,965 MTCO2 n comparson to the reference scenaro. In other words, the polcy measures ncluded n ths package wll enable Turkey to realze, by 2030, two thrds of ts far share of emsson reductons regardng the 2 C target. The polcy tools ncluded n the Clmate Polcy Package are adequate for keepng the emssons level n lne wth the 2 C target through to the year In order to meet the 2 C target, emssons should reach a peak pont around 2020, and start to declne thereafter. To fully acheve ths goal, t s necessary to adopt addtonal polcy measures and practces. Towards ths end, sector-based analyses and studes should be conducted n such areas as ndustry, transport, waste management, and energy effcency. Turkey s role n and sway on the new clmate regme wll be defned by the adaptaton and mtgaton polces t wll mplement at the natonal and local levels, as well as by the emsson reducton target t wll declare. In ths context, a holstc approach to mtgaton and adaptaton polces s called for. Tools such as earmarkng a porton of the prospectve carbon tax revenues for reducng vulnerablty towards clmate change at the local level may contrbute to achevng such coherence. Clmate fnance s not among the polcy tools ncluded n the Clmate Polcy Package. If, n the new nternatonal clmate regme, Turkey benefts from nternatonal clmate fnance for meetng ts emsson reducton targets, the adverse economc consequences of emsson reducton may be mtgated. Scentsts clam that takng swft measures to reduce GHG emssons s vtal for avodng both the devastatng mpacts and the economc losses to be caused by clmate change. The results of the analyss show that early acton s of crtcal mportance for Turkey, as well. If Turkey defers the mplementaton of emsson reducton measures of the Clmate Polcy Package up untl 2020, t may face negatve growth rates after the year 2024, n order to be able to fulfl ts responsblty regardng the 2 C target. By mmedately puttng nto practce the emsson reducton polces, on the other hand, t wll be possble to mantan the economc growth, though wth some degree of declne n the GDP growth rate. Ths may be nterpreted as suggestng that the green growth approach s adequate and feasble for Turkey as well. 9

12 Istanbul, Turkey Getty Images Turkey 10

13 Low Carbon Development Pathways and Prortes for Turkey PART 1: CLIMATE CHANGE AND TURKEY 11

14 Aladaglar, Ngde, Turkey Getty Images Turkey 12

15 Low Carbon Development Pathways and Prortes for Turkey CLIMATE CHANGE AND TURKEY Clmate Change It s ndsputable that global temperatures are on the rse due to human actvtes. From 1880 to 2012, the average global temperature rose by 0.85 C.1 In ths perod almost all the ocean and land areas warmed up was the warmest year snce nstrumental temperature measurement was frst ntroduced n 18802, and 14 of the 15 warmest years on record have occurred n the 21st century C AVERAGE GLOBAL TEMPERATURE RISE SINCE 1880 Consstent changes are takng place n the clmate system as a whole due to global warmng; snow mantle and glacers are shrnkng, sea levels are rsng and precptaton regmes are changng as land and sea temperatures are ncreasng.4 Human-nduced (anthropogenc) clmate change, whch emerged n the wake of the ndustral revoluton and has gradually accelerated n the last 40 years, s caused by growng greenhouse gas concentratons n the atmosphere. Atmospherc concentratons of carbon doxde, methane and ntrous oxde, whch are the man greenhouse gases, have reached a level that s unprecedented 800 thousand years. Carbon doxde concentratons have ncreased by more than 40% compared to pre-ndustral levels (approxmately 280 ppm [ppm: parts-per-mllon]) exceedng 400 ppm n The prmary reason for ths s the burnng of fossl fuels (coal, ol, natural gas), whle the second reason s the emssons generated by land use change (deforestaton, agrculture, etc.). Emssons Trends Accordng to the Ffth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Clmate Change (IPCC), 40% of the total human-nduced GHG emssons released to the atmosphere snce the ndustral revoluton have occurred n the last 40 years. Despte the need to reduce and eventually elmnate emssons so as to mtgate clmate change, a drastc ncrease s observed n annual global emssons. Global emssons, whch dsplayed an average annual ncrease of 1.3% between 1970 and 2000, rose by 2.2% between 2000 and The man drvng force behnd ths ncrease s the fossl fuel use and ndustral processes. Whle 65% of the total emssons n 2010 were generated by the fossl fuel use and ndustral processes, the IPCC revealed that these two factors were responsble for 78% of the emssons growth between 1970 and Source: IPCC, Ffth Assessment Report, Workng Group III Contrbuton: Mtgaton of Clmate Change. report/summary-for-polcy-makers 1 Intergovernmental Panel on Clmate Change. CLIMATE CHANGE 2013: The Physcal Scence Bass Summary for Polcymakers. pcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/wgiar5_spm_brochure_en.pdf Intergovernmental Panel on Clmate Change (IPCC) Ffth Assessment Report Workng Group I. Clmate Change 2013: The Physcal Scence Bass 13

16 X3 Impacts THE NUMBER OF METEOROLOGICAL, HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATIC DISASTERS ALMOST TRIPLED ALL AROUND THE WORLD BETWEEN 1980 AND 2014 of Clmate Change Among the major observed mpacts of clmate change are extreme weather and clmate events, rsng of sea levels, consderable shrnkng of glacers n the North Pole, Greenland and Antarctca, and rsng temperatures and acdfcaton n oceans. 5 Accordng to the IPCC s Ffth Assessment Report, clmate change has affected n an rreversble way the habtats of many land, sea and freshwater dwellng speces. Due to changes n precptaton regmes and meltng of snow/ce mantles n many regons of the world, hydrologcal systems have also changed, and water resources have deterorated both n quantty and qualty. Adverse effects of clmate change on agrcultural products wll be much greater and more pervasve than ts postve effects. 6 As a matter of fact, the number of meteorologcal, hydrologcal and clmatc dsasters (sudden precptatons, floods, strong hurrcanes, dry spells, heat waves, etc.) trpled between 1980 and If no measure s taken and the current trends n emssons levels persst, the temperature rse s lkely to exceed the 2 C danger threshold n the comng years. The temperature rse may reach 4.8 C by the end of the 21st century. 8 Scentsts suggest that even f the anthropogenc GHG emssons were reduced to zero today, changes n the clmate system and ther potental mpacts would preval. Nevertheless, a rapd and mmedate reducton n global emssons may keep the temperature rse below 2 C. Contnung rse n emssons and temperatures, on the other hand, wll ncrease the rsk of occurrence of abrupt and rremedable clmate events. Antcpated Impacts of Clmate Change accordng to the IPCC s Ffth Assessment Report 9 Deaths and njures n small sland states, on other small slands and n coastal areas due to hurrcanes, floods and sea level rse; damages to settlements. Damages to settlements and serous llness threats to cty-dwellng populatons due to sudden floodng. Systemc rsks due to extreme weather events leadng to serous damages to and/or total destructon of nfrastructure systems and the consequent dsrupton of servces such as electrcty, water supply, and health and emergency servces. Increased mortalty and morbdty rates durng perods of extreme heat among vulnerable sectons of urban populatons (elderly populaton, those wth respratory problems, etc.) and those workng outdoors n urban and rural areas. Breakdown of food supply systems and ncreased rsk of food nsecurty partcularly among poorer populatons due to warmng, droughts, floods, and precptaton varablty and extremes. Loss of lvelhoods partcularly among subsstence farmers and peasants n sem-ard regons due to nsuffcent access to drnkng and rrgaton water and reduced agrcultural producton. Degradaton of land and freshwater ecosystems and of bodversty and ecosystem servces they provde for populatons lvng n these areas Intergovernmental Panel on Clmate Change (IPCC) Ffth Assessment Report Workng Group I. Clmate Change 2013: The Physcal Scence Bass 6 Intergovernmental Panel on Clmate Change (IPCC) Ffth Assessment Report Workng Group II. Clmate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptaton, and Vulnerablty 7 Munch RE, Geo Rsks Research, NatCatSERVICE - As at January Intergovernmental Panel on Clmate Change (IPCC) Ffth Assessment Report Workng Group I. Clmate Change 2013: The Physcal Scence Bass 9 Intergovernmental Panel on Clmate Change (IPCC) Ffth Assessment Report Workng Group II. Clmate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptaton, and Vulnerablty

17 Low Carbon Development Pathways and Prortes for Turkey How s Turkey Impacted by Clmate Change? The Medterranean Basn, ncludng Turkey, s one of the regons most vulnerable to clmate change. Major mpacts of clmate change that have been observed n Turkey up untl today are as follows: Temperatures have rsen all over Turkey n the last 42 years. Hgher rates of ncrease have been observed n summer temperatures compared to other seasons. Warm perods have expanded also n temporal terms. 10 An approxmately ten-meter annual retreat of mountan glacers has been observed n the last years. 11 Peak run-off of snow-fed rvers has shfted to a week earler than ts regular tme n the last 40 years. 12 The sea levels have rsen. 13 Temperatures are expected to rse n all parts of the country and n all seasons, and the rates of ncrease n summer temperatures are expected to be hgher than n wnter temperatures. In addton, t s predcted that Turkey s already lmted water resources wll be under further stress. Other possble mpacts of clmate change on Turkey are as follows: 45 % OF THE POPULATION IN TURKEY MAY CONFRONT WATER SCARCITY BY THE END OF THE CENTURY DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE Lower precptaton rates are expected n the southern regons of Turkey. A slght ncrease may be observed n ts northern and partcularly northeastern regons. Rsng sea levels may lead to the submergence of rver deltas (such as Çarşamba, Bafra, and Çukurova) and of low-lyng areas of coastal ctes; onemeter rse n global sea levels may affect 3 mllon ndvduals n Turkey. 14 Regons sufferng from water stress may expand n Turkey; 45% of the populaton may confront water scarcty by the end of the century. 15 Hgher precptaton rates n the Eastern Black Sea regon may ncrease the rsk of landsldes. Antcpated shrnkng of the snow mantle may decrease the rsk of avalanches. Perods of drought and heat wave may ncrease n duraton and ntensty due to rsng temperatures and fallng precptaton rates Şen, Ömür Lütf., Bozkurt, Denz., Göktürk, Ozan Mert., Dündar, Berna. and Altürk, Bahadır Türkye de İklm Değşklğ ve Olası Etkler 11 Sarıkaya, Mehmet Akf Türkye nn güncel buzulları. n Fzk Coğrafya Araştırmaları: Sstematk ve Bölgesel, Istanbul: Turksh Geographcal Socety Publcatons, 6: İsmal, Yücel., Güventürk, Abdülkadr., and Şen, Ömer Lütf Clmate change mpacts on snowmelt runoff for mountanous regons of eastern Turkey, Journal of Hydrology, n revew 13 Demr, Coşkun., Yıldız, Hasan., Cngöz, Ayhan., and Smav, Mehmet Türkye Kıyılarında Uzun Döneml Denz Sevyes Değşmler, p.13, Ffth Natonal Coastal Engneerng Symposum, 5-7 May, Bodrum. 14 Leo Meyer, IPCC Ffth Assessment Report Synthess Report, Bogazc Unversty, 10 September 2015, IPCC Outreach Event Istanbul, Turkey 15 Met Offce, Clmate observatons, projectons and mpacts: Turkey, Devon, Ömer Lütf Şen, A Holstc Vew of Clmate Change and Its Impacts n Turkey, Istanbul Polcy Center, December,

18 2 C Target/Remanng n the Safe Zone Impacts of clmate change such as rsng sea levels, ocean acdfcaton, meltng of glacers, and ncreased frequency and ntensty of extreme weather and clmate events such as droughts, floods, and strong hurrcanes, pose serous rsks to human communtes as well as to plants, anmals and ecosystems. 2 C THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE RISE SHOULD BE KEPT BELOW THIS THRESHOLD SO AS TO AVOID DEVASTATING EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE Scentsts assert that the average temperature rse should be lmted to 2 C n order to avod the devastatng mpacts of clmate change. Falng to stay wthn ths lmt s expected to cause pervasve and rremedable mpacts on all ecosystems and human communtes. The 2 C target was accepted by all countres under the 2010 Cancun Agreements, and subsequently all emsson reducton negotatons are conducted n lne wth ths target. To meet ths target, atmospherc CO2 levels, whch have rsen by 40% (from 280 ppm to 400 ppm [ppm: parts-per-mllon]) n the last 250 years, should reman below 450 ppm. Average global temperatures have, to date, rsen by 0.85 C. If the current rate of ncrease n GHG emssons perssts, the temperature rse may reach 4 C n , and 6 C n IPCC states that n order to keep global warmng below the 2 C threshold, structural changes should be made n the global energy system, thereby ensurng consderable GHG emsson reductons wthn the shortest tme possble. It s underlned that to stay wthn the 2 C target, global carbon neutralty wll need to be acheved sometme between 2055 and 2070, and total global greenhouse gas emssons need to shrnk to net zero some tme between 2080 and 2100**. 19 Accordngly, the share of low carbon energy sources n electrcty generaton should exceed 90% by The Internatonal Energy Agency (IEA) also emphaszes that n order to stay wthn the 2 C target, two thrds of the world s fossl fuel reserves should reman underground. 20 The IEA warns that our dependence on fossl fuel nfrastructure wll render energy securty and clmate targets harder and more costly to acheve unless a structural transformaton towards clean energy and low carbon technologes s ntated by *Net Carbon Emsson= Amount of carbon released to the atmosphere Amount of carbon absorbed by carbon snks **Net GHG Emsson= Total amount of GHG released to the atmosphere Total amount of GHG absorbed by carbon snks 17 Turn Down The Heat: Why a 4 C World Must be Avoded, World Bank, en/2012/11/ /turn-down-heat-4%c2%b0c-warmer-world-must-avoded 18 Turn Down The Heat: Why a 4 C World Must be Avoded, World Bank, en/2012/11/ /turn-down-heat-4%c2%b0c-warmer-world-must-avoded 19 UNEP Emssons Gap Report, EXECUTIVE_SUMMARY.pdf 20 IEA, World Energy Outlook The Guardan. November

19 Low Carbon Development Pathways and Prortes for Turkey 195 NUMBER OF partıes sıgned THE unfccc (UNITED NATIONS FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE) Global Clmate Change Mtgaton and Actons Towards It The man objectve of the Unted Natons Framework Conventon on Clmate Change (UNFCCC), whch was held n Ro n 1992, was defned as achevng stablzaton of greenhouse gas concentratons n the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenc nterference wth the clmate system. From that day on, mechansms afflated wth the UNFCCC, whch was sgned by 196 partes (195 states and the European Unon), have served as the man processes gudng the efforts of governments towards clmate change mtgaton. The UNFCCC Conference of the Partes to be held n Pars at the end of 2015 (COP21) s of crtcal mportance for reachng a new agreement that wll replace the Kyoto Protocol after Pror to the summt, all state partes to the UNFCCC were called on to determne ther natonal contrbutons (INDC Intended Natonally Determned Contrbutons) and submt these to the UNFCCC Secretarat. When ths report was n progress, 83 partes (111 countres f the EU countres are taken nto account separately) that are responsble for the 73.7% of the world s total emssons had already submtted ther natonal contrbutons to the UNFCCC. For the success of clmate change mtgaton efforts, each country should dentfy ts share regardng the carbon budget under 2 C target and ts level of development, and take acton n ths drecton. Wthn ths framework, targets and commtments that have been or wll be put forward by developng countres (such as Chna, Inda, Mexco, Turkey, and South Korea), whch consttute the man drvng force behnd rsng emssons n the recent perod, bear as much mportance as those adopted by developed countres (ncludng the U.S., Australa, Japan and the EU members) whch have hgher hstorcal responsbltes. Wth the crtcal Pars summt approachng, emsson reducton targets declared by some of these countres are shown n Table 1. 17

20 INDC and Target Types Table 1: Emsson Reducton Targets Submtted by Certan Countres Pror to 2015 Pars Clmate Conference (COP21) On the eve of the 2015 Pars Clmate Conference (COP21), contractng countres have been submttng to the UNFCCC ther post-2020 schemes for clmate change mtgaton under the ttle of INDC (Intended Natonally Determned Contrbutons). INDC s nvolve varous types of targets for reducng GHG emssons: Country Share n Global Emssons 2012 (%)* Share n Global Emssons ( ) (%)** - Base year target: A commtment to reduce, or control the ncrease of, emssons by a specfed quantty relatve to a base year. - Fxed level target: A commtment to reduce, or control the ncrease of, emssons to an absolute emssons level n a target year. U.S. 16.4% 27% Chna 24.5% 11% - Baselne scenaro target: A commtment to reduce emssons by a specfed quantty relatve to a projected emssons baselne scenaro. European Unon 9.82% 25% - Intensty target: A commtment to reduce emssons ntensty (emssons per unt of another varable, typcally GDP) by a specfed quantty relatve to a hstorcal base year. - Trajectory target: A commtment to reduce, or control the ncrease of, emssons to specfed emssons quanttes n multple target years or perods over a long tme perod. years over the long run. Russa 5.18% 8% Japan 3.1% 4% Mexco 1.6% 1% Brazl South Korea 1.55% <1% Australa 1.45% <1% 18

21 Low Carbon Development Pathways and Prortes for Turkey Annual Per Capta GHG Emssons (Tons) Type of Target Emsson Reducton Target**** 19.9 Base year target - An emsson reducton of 26-28% by 2025 relatve to the 2005 level. - Accordng to the U.S., ths target seems consstent wth the pathway leadng to an 80% emsson reducton by Intensty and trajectory targets - To reach a peak pont n GHG emssons n 2030 and ntate a downward trend thereafter. - To reduce, by 2030, the economy s carbon ntensty (GDP/GHG emssons) by 60-65% relatve to the 2005 level. - To ncrease the share of non-fossl energy sources n prmary energy consumpton to 20%. 8.8 Base year target - The EU seems, n the current stuaton, to have started a low carbon transformaton n ts economy. From 1990 to ths day, ts economy has grown by 44% whle ts emssons have decreased by 19%. There has been a decrease n per capta emssons as well. - The EU s target for the year 2030 s to reduce ts emssons by at least 40% relatve to the 1990 level Base year target - Russa submtted a rather vague natonal contrbuton document. It proposes a reducton of 25-30% by 2030 relatve to the 1990 level. Ths proposal, whch also takes nto account the carbon snk capacty of forest lands n Russa, envsages a 6-11% decrease n ndustral emssons compared to The process of economc restructurng undertaken by Russa after the dssoluton of the Sovet Unon n 1990 led to a sgnfcant decrease n emssons. For emssons n 2012 were 50% less than the 1990 level, the target set by Russa mples that ts emssons wll contnue to rse. ***** 10.5 Base year target - An emsson reducton of 26% by 2030 relatve to the 2013 level. 6 Baselne scenaro target, and Intensty and trajectory targets Base year target 13.9 Baselne scenaro target - An emsson reducton of 25% by 2030 relatve to the reference scenaro (BaU). - To reach a peak pont n net emssons and ntate a downward trend startng from To reduce the economy s carbon ntensty (GDP/GHG emssons) by 40% n the perod of An emsson reducton of 37% by 2025 relatve to the 2005 level. -A reducton of 37% by 2030 relatve to the Busness-as-Usual Scenaro (BaU MtCO2e)****** - A secton on clmate change adaptaton s also ncluded n South Korea s natonal contrbuton document Base year target - An emsson reducton of 26-28% by 2030 relatve to the 2005 level. * The fgures n ths column do not take nto account the emssons generated by land use, land use change and forestry and carbon snks. Source: World Resources Insttute CAIT Database ( ** Source: World Resources Insttute: *** The fgures n ths column do not take nto account the emssons generated by land use, land use change and forestry and carbon snks. Source: World Resources Insttute CAIT Database ( **** Source: Pars Contrbutons Data, World Resources Insttute. ***** Source: Clmate Acton Tracker. ****** Carbon doxde equvalent (CO2e) s a standard unt that allows quantfyng greenhouse gases wth dfferng mpact levels n a common unt based on the specfc mpact of each gas on global warmng. CO2e sgnfes the amount of CO2 whch would have the equvalent global warmng mpact. For nstance, the global warmng mpact of ntrous oxde s 310 tmes the mpact of carbon doxde. In other words, one unt of N2 O equals 310 CO2 -equvalent. Source: Regonal Envronmental Center, Internatonal Local Government GHG Emssons Analyss Protocol (IEAP) 19

22 Turkey and Internatonal Clmate Polces Turkey started to take part n nternatonal clmate polcy processes at a rather early date by partcpatng n the Noordwjk Mnsteral Conference, whch was held n the Netherlands n Despte ts low hstorcal responsblty, Turkey was lsted, alongsde developed countres wth the hghest levels of hstorcal responsblty for clmate change, under Annexes I and II of the Unted Natons Framework Conventon on Clmate Change, whch was opened for sgnature n Beng concerned about the ensung oblgatons relatng to emsson reductons and fnancal support to developng countres, Turkey refraned, for a long tme, from sgnng the conventon. For ths reason, t partcpated n the Kyoto Protocol negotatons held n 1997 n an observer capacty. 110% RATE OF INCREASE IN TURKEY S GHG EMISSIONS BETWEEN 1990 AND 2013 Durng the UNFCCC s 7th Conference of the Partes (COP7), whch was held n Marrakesh n 2001, Turkey was removed from Annex II and partes to the conventon were nvted to recognze the specal crcumstances of Turkey whch place Turkey n a stuaton dfferent from that of other partes ncluded n Annex I. Followng ths development, Turkey became a party to the Framework Conventon n 2004, and from ths date on, started to partcpate more actvely n clmate polces. Turkey ssued ts frst Greenhouse Gas Emssons Inventory n 2006 n an effort to fulfl one of the most sgnfcant oblgatons mposed on the partes, whch requres each party to prepare ts natonal GHG emssons nventory on a yearly bass and submt t to the UNFCCC. In 2007, Turkey prepared ts frst Natonal Communcaton on Clmate Change and establshed the Global Warmng Research Commsson at the Turksh Grand Natonal Assembly. Followng the entry nto force of the Kyoto Protocol n 2005 and the openng of Turkey s EU accesson negotatons the same year, publc dscussons on Turkey s expected approval of the Protocol ntensfed, consequently leadng Turkey to ratfy the Protocol n However, snce Turkey partcpated n the preparatons of the Kyoto Protocol as an observer, t dd not undertake any emsson reducton oblgatons at the tme. Turkey s frst Greenhouse Gas Emssons Inventory, publshed n 2006, reported that Turkey s GHG emssons rose by 74.4% between 1990 and Ths rate has further ncreased n every new nventory because of the contnuous ncrease n GHG emssons. Fnally, the rate of emssons growth reached 110.4% n the 2015 nventory, consttutng a slghtly lesser rate compared to the prevous year due to a change n the calculaton method. Owng to these rates, Turkey has ranked frst n GHG emssons growth among the Annex I countres every year snce Turkey pronounced for the frst tme certan fgures for emsson reducton n the context of a prospectve agreement that was supposed to be sgned pror to the UNFCCC s 15th Conference of the Partes (COP15), whch was held n Copenhagen n As the conference faled, however, Turkey dd not agan make any emsson reducton commtments, nor dd t endorse the Copenhagen Accord. At the UNFCCC s 16th Conference of the Partes (COP16), whch was organzed n Cancún n 2010, all partes recognzed Turkey s specal crcumstances under Annex I. Despte ths development, Turkey dd not jon the Kyoto Protocol s second commtment perod that was opened for sgnature n Doha n When ths process was combned wth Turkey s fossl fuel-orented rapd development polces and ts strategy to prortze coal use, Turkey s efforts towards clmate change mtgaton waned. 20

23 Low Carbon Development Pathways and Prortes for Turkey When Turkey announced at the UNFCCC s 19th Conference of the Partes (COP19) n Warsaw n 2013 that t wll agree to become a party to the new agreement wth a flexble target to be determned on ts own terms f the crtcal mass s reached, Turkey s clmate polces entered a new phase. Presdent Erdoğan declared, at the Unted Natons Clmate Change Leaders Summt n New York n 2014, that Turkey was ready to undertake ts responsblty n the new process. In the lead-up to the UNFCCC s 21th Conference of the Partes (COP21) to be held n Pars n December 2015, Turkey has been preparng to contrbute to nternatonal clmate change mtgaton efforts wth a plan (INDC) t has tself drawn up for the frst tme. Even though t has not set an emsson reducton target throughout the nternatonal clmate negotatons, Turkey has prepared strategy documents and acton plans on clmate change mtgaton, desgned sectoral polces, and realzed projects on capacty buldng, clmate change mpact assessment and adaptaton. Establshng voluntary carbon markets, subsdzng renewable energy by laws and regulatons, and organzng campagns amng to reduce, though n a lmted manner, energy-generated emssons through demand management can be cted among Turkey s endeavours towards curbng GHG emssons growth. In ts frst Natonal Communcaton on Clmate Change, Turkey stated that the rse n emssons could be 7% lower by However, all these polces dd not add up to a scheme that would allow an actve nvolvement n and contrbuton to nternatonal clmate change mtgaton processes. When consdered n relaton to Turkey s natonal energy strategy based on ncreasng the share of coal n the energy mx, ths stuaton suggests that Turkey does not yet pursue a concrete polcy for emsson reducton. The Conference of the Partes to be held n Pars n December 2015 s a crucal turnng pont n ths respect.* *For more detaled nformaton on ths ssue, see: Şahn, Ümt Türkye nn İklm Poltkalarında Aktör Hartası, Sabancı Unversty Istanbul Polcy Center. AktorHartasRapor_ _web.pdf 21

24 Canakkale Getty Images Turkey 22

25 Low Carbon Development Pathways and Prortes for Turkey PART 2: LOW CARBON DEVELOPMENT PATHWAYS FOR TURKEY 23

26 Okeyphotos - Getty Images Turkey 24

27 Low Carbon Development Pathways and Prortes for Turkey LOW CARBON DEVELOPMENT PATHWAYS FOR TURKEY In ts Ffth Assessment Report ssued n 2013, the Intergovernmental Panel on Clmate Change stated wth 95 percent confdence that humans are the man cause of the current global warmng. The IPCC underscored that two thrds of the GHG emssons released snce the ndustral revoluton have been generated by burnng of fossl fuels and cement producton. 22 In the perod between 1880 and 2012, average temperatures rose by 0.85 C. If the current rate of ncrease n GHG emssons perssts, the temperature rse s expected to reach 2 C around the year If no measure s taken, the temperature rse may reach 4 C n , and 6 C at the end of the century 25. Scentsts clam that for avodng the devastatng mpacts of clmate change, the rse n average temperatures compared to pre-ndustral levels should be lmted to 2 C. 19 TURKEY S RANKING IN GLOBAL GHG EMISSIONS Accordng to the IPCC, meetng the 2 C target requres a radcal transformaton n the global energy nfrastructure so as to ensure sgnfcant reductons n GHG emssons n the shortest tme possble. Accordngly, the share of low carbon energy n electrcty producton should exceed 90% by Acknowledgng ths scentfc fact, n the G7 summt held n Germany n June 2015, G7 countres emphaszed that the global economy should be decarbonsed by the end of the 21th century, and to ths end, both developed and developng countres should transform, n a comprehensve manner, ther energy sectors up untl Turkey s GHG emssons amount to 4 of the cumulatve hstorcal global emssons 27 and to 0.94% of the global emssons n In 2012, Turkey ranked 19th n total GHG emssons n the world and 81st n per capta emssons among 182 countres. 29 Wth per capta emssons of 6.04 tons 30, Turkey s below the world average. The rse n Turkey s emssons snce 1990 s remarkable, though. In the perod between 1990 and 2013, Turkey s total annual emssons ncreased by 110.4%, and per capta emssons by 53%. 31 Mtgatng clmate change s an ssue that calls for global solutons. As also hghlghted by clmate scentsts, meetng the 2 C target requres decarbonsaton of the global economy. The sooner ths requrement s fulflled, the hgher the chances of preservng lfe, human cvlzaton and the ecologcal system on our planet wll be. 22 Intergovernmental Panel on Clmate Change (IPCC) Ffth Assessment Report Workng Group III. Clmate Change 2014: Mtgaton of Clmate Change 23 Met Offce Hadley Center. Clmate rsk: An update on the scence / Turn Down The Heat: Why a 4 C World Must be Avoded, World Bank, en/2012/11/ /turn-down-heat-4%c2%b0c-warmer-world-must-avoded 25 Intergovernmental Panel on Clmate Change (IPCC) Ffth Assessment Report Workng Group II. Clmate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptaton, and Vulnerablty G7 Summt Leaders Declaraton. blob=publcatonfle&v=3 27 World Resources Insttute, Navgatng the Numbers: Greenhouse Gas Data and Internatonal Clmate Polcy navgatng_numbers_chapter6.pdf 28 World Resources Insttute CAIT Clmate Data Explorer, 29 World Resources Insttute CAIT Clmate Data Explorer, 30 TurkStat, Greenhouse Gas Emssons Inventory, TurkStat, Greenhouse Gas Emssons Inventory,

28 Countres that have a mutual responsblty for takng acton have been carryng on clmate negotatons for more than twenty years wth the am of ensurng the far allocaton of ths. The Conference of the Partes (COP21) to be held n Pars n December 2015 bears partcular mportance. Before the Pars Conference, durng whch a new agreement to replace the Kyoto Protocol wll be negotated, all countres are expected to submt ther INDCs to the UNFCCC Secretarat. Turkey prevously announced that t wll endorse the Pars Agreement, whch s expected to be sgned at the end of In order to determne ts INDC, Turkey should dentfy ts share n global emsson reductons on the bass of ts hstorcal and current responsblty and ts rght to development; specfy what knd of low carbon development polces t wll adopt and how t wll mplement these polces to ensure ts reducton target; scentfcally assess the costs and mpacts of these reducton polces on the country s economy and how negatve mpacts mght be mtgated. In ths research, we seek answers to three major questons n an effort to support Turkey s endeavours towards the above-mentoned goals: 1. What responsblty les wth Turkey wthn the scope of the 2 C target, and what could ts emsson reducton target be? 2. What knd of a low carbon polcy package could be adopted n order to acheve the requred emsson reducton? 3. What knd of an mpact could these polces have on macroeconomc ndcators? What are the costs of mplementng and not mplementng these polces? 26

29 Izmr, Turkey Şeref Yılmaz - Getty Images Turkey Methodology The analyss presented n ths report rests on the Computable General Equlbrum model. The analyss seeks answers to the questons below: 1. What are the characterstcs of economc growth and CO2 emssons for Turkey over the medum/long run? 2. What s the approprate polcy mx for sustanng green growth under ths path, gven the fscal and external constrants and specfc labor market rgdtes? 3. What are the possble mx of nnovaton technologes and tax-cum-ncentve polces to enhance productvty growth and to foster employment? An mportant premse n the analyss s that, n order to capture the general equlbrum effects of green polces, these wll need to accompany ongong growthenhancng economc polces amed at ncreasng the level of nvestment and ts effcency, achevng stronger employment generaton and hgher labor productvty, and other measures to enhance compettveness and mtgate rsks. To ths end, a Computable General Equlbrum (CGE) model of the Turksh economy has been developed, n order to assess the mpact of a selected number of clmate polcy nstruments and publc polcy nterventon mechansms, ncludng marketbased ncentves desgned to accelerate technology adopton and acheve hgher employment and sustanable growth patterns. The study spans the growth trajectory of the Turksh economy, wth a detaled focus on carbon emssons from both frms and households and the relevant market nstruments of abatement. The base year for our model s The noton of a base year s necessary for our analytcal model to calbrate the mcro/sectoral and macroeconomc balances to the exstng data. A major source of data for ths analyss s the Input/Output (I/O) statstcs. The most recent I/O data for Turkey s avalable for Ths data was updated to 2010 balances usng the natonal ncome data on macro aggregates. In the model, 18 sectors have been dstngushed, 17 of whch are offcally recognzed n the I/O. The addtonal Renewable Energy Sources sector was deduced separately and was appended as a new sector to the I/O data. Renewable Energy Sources was accommodated usng avalable data from World Energy Assocaton, the World Input-Output Data, and ndependent studes. For the GHG data, the model drew on the Greenhouse Gas Inventores prepared by the Turksh Statstcal Insttute (TurkStat) wthn the scope of the UN Framework Conventon on Clmate Change. Addtonal nformaton on methodology may be found n the Appendx of ths report.

30 Mustafa Can - Getty Images Turkey Why was the Computable General Equlbrum Model Preferred? Alternatve approaches to energy-economy-envronment modellng are manly categorzed nto four: top-down, bottom-up, hybrd and econometrc approaches. The most commonly used tool of the top-down approach s the computable general equlbrum (CGE) modelng. Ths model enables the representaton of the macroeconomc structure of the country under analyss, thus allowng the observaton of the mpact of any polcy change on the scale of the entre economy. On the other hand, these models lack statstcal background n the standard calbraton process. Besdes, these models generally omt explct captal representaton of the energy sector as they use economc varables n an aggregated manner; hence they are consdered weak n representng the technologcal restrctons n detal. Moreover, top-down approaches are based on past data and assume ratonal agents so that they are also weak n representng nter-fuel substtuton possbltes. As a result, top-down approaches tend to overestmate the cost of mtgaton optons. Ths study ams to understand the macroeconomc mplcatons of GHG emsson reducton targets related clmate change polcy nstruments that could be employed to acheve these targets. Therefore, t was based on the General Equlbrum Model. When assessng ts results, the model s tendency to overestmate the cost of relevant mtgaton polcy nstruments should be taken nto consderaton. 28

31 Low Carbon Development Pathways and Prortes for Turkey Carbon Budget For the 2 C Target: What Could Turkey s Emsson Reducton Target Be? 65% PERCENTAGE OF THE CARBON BUDGET THAT HAS BEEN USED UP SINCE THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION The term carbon budget sgnfes the total amount of global GHG emssons that the atmosphere can tolerate n a gven tme perod, or n other words, that wll allow keepng the average temperature rse below 2 C. Accordng to the Ffth Assessment Report ssued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Clmate Change, n order to keep global warmng below 2 C, the maxmum amount of green house gases that can be emtted snce the ndustral revoluton, namely the global carbon budget, s lkely 32 to be 2900 GtCO2 (Fgure 1) GtCO2 (65%) of ths budget had been used up untl Current emsson trends ndcate that the remanng 1000 GtCO2 wll have been emtted to the atmosphere before In order to meet the 2 C target,, global carbon neutralty wll need to be acheved sometme between 2055 and and total global greenhouse gas emssons need to shrnk to net zero some tme between 2080 and (Fgure 2). Fgure 1: Global Carbon Budget CO2 Emssons Between Gt CO2 Total CO2 Budget 2900 Gt CO2 Remanng CO2 Budget 1000 Gt CO Fgure 2: Global Carbon Emsson Reducton Curve to Reman Below 2 C Threshold PgC* To lmt average global warmng to 2 C, t s essental that annual global emssons peak by the year 2020, and are reduced steeply thereafter *1 PgC (petagrams of carbon) = 1 GtC (ggatons of carbon) = 3.67 GtCO2 (ggatons of carbon doxde) Source: Peak Emssons Peak Emssons 50% of 2020 Emssons Accordng to clmate scence, global carbon neutralty wll need to be acheved sometme between 2055 and 2070, and total global greenhouse gas emssons need to shrnk to net zero some tme between 2080 and On the other hand, however, the upward trend n global emssons contnues. When and at what level emssons growth wll be halted (peak emssons), and how rapdly emssons wll be reduced thereafter are crucal factors that wll spell the success of efforts towards the 2 C target. 32 In the IPCC termnology, the followng terms are used to express the lkelhood of occurrence of an outcome based on expert vews: Vrtually certan > %99, Extremely lkely > %95, Very lkely > %90, Lkely> %66, More lkely than not > %50, Unlkely < %33 Very unlkely < %10, Extremely unlkely < %5. 33 Intergovernmental Panel on Clmate Change (IPCC) Ffth Assessment Report, Clmate Change 2014: Synthess Report pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/ar5_syr_final_spm.pdf 34 Understandng the IPCC Reports, World Resources Insttute Net carbon emsson = Amount of carbon released to the atmosphere Amount of carbon absorbed by carbon snks 36 UNEP Emssons Gap Report, EXECUTIVE_SUMMARY.pdf 29

32 Ths pcture, depcted by clmate scentsts, ndcates that the entre global economy, ncludng both developed and developng countres, should take part n ths transformaton. Accordngly, countres should determne ther share on the bass of a range of ndcators that nclude hstorcal emssons and levels of development. TURKEY S FAIR SHARE IN THE GLOBAL CARBON BUDGET AND EMISSION REDUCTION TARGETS WAS DETERMINED ACCORDING TO ITS MINIMUM HISTORICAL RESPONSIBILITY AND Maxmum development needs In an effort to establsh Turkey s share n the global carbon budget n reference to ts hstorcal and current emsson trends, ts economc structure and level of development, and thus fnd out what knd of an emsson reducton commtment t may face, ths study employed the Clmate Equty Reference Calculator (CERC) desgned by the Stockholm Envronment Insttute and EcoEquty. 37 In order to determne the global carbon budget, the CERC based calculaton rested on the 2 C Pathway, whch s also consstent wth the reference pathway contaned n UNEP s Emssons Gap Report. Turkey s a G20 country that has a low hstorcal responsblty due to ts late economc development and has not undertaken any commtment durng the frst commtment perod of the Kyoto Protocol. On the other hand, however, t has a hgh level of dependence on fossl fuels n energy producton and a hgh economc growth rate as of today. Havng ncreased ts total emssons by 110.4% snce 1990, Turkey wll determne ts contrbuton to the nternatonal efforts for clmate change mtgaton n accordance wth the prncple of common but dfferentated responsbltes and of ts poston to date as a developng country wth specal crcumstances under Annex I. For ths reason, Turkey s far share of the global carbon budget and of emsson reducton targets was assessed on the bass of mnmum hstorcal responsblty and maxmum development needs. Clmate Equty Reference Calculator (CERC) The CERC s an onlne clmate equty reference tool desgned to determne each country s far share of the global carbon budget and the global clmate mtgaton effort. In order to ensure the far sharng of the carbon budget and the mtgaton responsblty, ths tool rests on the UNFCCC s prncples of equty ncludng adequacy, common but dfferentated responsbltes and capabltes, and far access to sustanable development. The calculator enables the user to specfy a gven country s responsblty n emssons growth and ts natonal capacty for emsson reducton. Wth ths tool, the relevant country s far share of the global carbon budget allowed to meet the 2 C can be calculated on the bass of such parameters as current demographc and macroeconomc ndcators, hstorcal responsblty n emssons, and present natonal capacty. Wth the CERC, the user selects from among three separate emsson reducton pathways (1,5 C, 2 C and G8 pathways, from the most ambtous to the least), and among varous assumptons regardng the responsblty of the country under analyss n hstorcal emssons and ts capacty for emsson reducton, or n other words, ts natonal ncome. Based on these selectons, the tool delvers an emsson projecton for the relevant country revealng the country s far share n global emsson reducton efforts, accordng to ts hstorcal responsblty and ts ncome level. For more nformaton: Clmate Equty Reference Calculator,

33 Low Carbon Development Pathways and Prortes for Turkey Scenaros: What Drecton Wll Turkey s GHG Emssons Take? Turkey s GHG emssons rose by 110.4% n the perod between 1990 and Durng the same perod annual per capta emssons dsplayed an ncrease of 53%, rsng from 3.96 tons to 6.04 tons. Wth ncrease rates of over 130%, energy and ndustry were the man sectors that drove emssons growth n ths perod. Emssons generated by electrcty producton grew by 236%, ncreasng the share of electrcty producton n total emssons from 15% to 25%. 38 Projectons for the future vary. Varatons n economc growth predctons lead to dscrepances n emssons growth projectons. One thng s for certan though; for the success of clmate change mtgaton efforts, curbng emssons growth s a must. In ths regard, the analyss sets forth three dfferent emssons growth scenaros: 1 BILLION tons TURKEY S ESTIMATED TOTAL GHG EMISSIONS BY 2030 UNDER OFFICIAL PLANS SCENARIO 1. Offcal Plans Scenaro Gven the economc growth rates targeted by Turkey s offcal economc program (a real annual GDP growth rate of 5% n the medum term), annual GHG emssons, whch amounted to 459 mllon tons CO2e* n 2013, are projected to ncrease to over 1 bllon tons CO2e* n 2030 under a scenaro where no new polcy measure to reduce emssons s mplemented (Fgures 3-6). Ths trend consttutes the backbone of the Offcal Plans Scenaro. Under ths scenaro, annual CO2 emssons are predcted to rse to the level of 851 mllon tons by 2030, wth the cumulatve CO2 emssons n the perod totallng bllon tons. 2. Busness-as-Usual (BaU) Scenaro Ths scenaro rests on growth projectons that are more realstc and more consstent wth the recessonary tendences n the global and natonal economy (an average annual GDP growth rate of 3.45% durng the perod). Under ths scenaro where, agan, no new polcy measure to reduce emssons s taken, total GHG emssons are envsaged to rse from the 2013 level of 459 mllon tons CO2e up to 787 mllon tons by 2030 (Fgures 3, 4, and 6). Ths projecton s referred to as the Busness-as-Usual Scenaro (BaU) n ths analyss. Accordng to ths scenaro, annual CO2 emssons are predcted to ncrease to 659 mllon tons by 2030, wth the cumulatve CO2 emssons n the perod exceedng bllon tons. The analyss presented n ths report employs the Busness-as-Usual Scenaro whch s more lkely to occur n the lght of the current global economc developments, as the reference scenaro. It should be underlned that unrealstcally hgh emssons growth projectons under the Offcal Plans Scenaro ental the rsk of over estmatng emsson reducton targets. Detals of emsson projectons under dfferent scenaros are shown n Table 4 on page 37. * Carbon doxde equvalent (CO2e) s a standard unt that allows quantfyng greenhouse gases wth dfferng mpact levels n a common unt based on the specfc mpact of each gas on global warmng. CO2e sgnfes the amount of CO2 whch would have the equvalent global warmng mpact. For nstance, the global warmng mpact of ntrous oxde s 310 tmes the mpact of carbon doxde. In other words, one unt of N2 O equals 310 CO2 -equvalent. Source: Regonal Envronmental Center, Internatonal Local Government GHG Emssons Analyss Protocol (IEAP) 38 TurkStat, Greenhouse Gas Emssons Inventory,

34 GHG Emssons and CO2 Emssons Turkey s GHG emssons nventory ncludes emssons of drect and ndrect greenhouse gases that are generated by energy, ndustral processes and product use, agrcultural actvtes and waste. Drect greenhouse gases ncluded n the nventory are carbon doxde (CO2), methane (CH4), ntrous oxde (N2O), and F-gases, and the ndrect greenhouse gases are ntrogen oxdes (NOx), nonmethane volatle organc compounds (NMVOC), carbon monoxde (CO), and sulphur doxde (SO2). 39 CO2 s the most potent greenhouse gas, and the share of CO2 emssons n Turkey s annual GHG emssons rose from 71% n 1990 to 80% n CO2 emssons also accounted for 87% of the total emssons growth between 1990 and Varatons n CO2 emssons are the man determnants of the shfts n Turkey s total GHG emssons. Ths s because GHG emssons growth arses substantally from fossl fuel use n the energy sector. For that matter, the analyses presented n the subsequent parts of ths report address varatons n CO2 emssons. Fgure 3: Turkey s Total Annual GHG Emsson Trajectores Under Offcal Plans & BaU Scenaros ( ) MtCO2e Offcal Plans Scenaro BaU Scenaro Fgure 4: Turkey s Annual CO2 Emsson Trajectores Under Offcal Plans & BaU Scenaros ( ) MtCO Offcal Plans Scenaro BaU Scenaro 39 TurkStat, Greenhouse Gas Emssons Inventory 32

35 Low Carbon Development Pathways and Prortes for Turkey 2.98 BILLION TONS TOTAL AMOUNT OF EMISSION REDUCTION TURKEY SHOULD MAKE BY 2030 TO FULFIL ITS RESPONSIBILITY Regardng 2 C TARGET 3. 2 C Pathway Scenaro The prevous two scenaros are based on the assumpton that Turkey would not put nto practce any new polcy nstruments to reduce ts emssons. Aganst these scenaros, we have dentfed the emsson pathway that needs to be pursued n accordance wth the 2 C target and the consequent carbon budget for Turkey. Ths pathway, dubbed as the 2 C Pathway, dsplays the requred reducton commtment usng the Clmate Equty Reference Calculator (CERC), n lne wth the mnmum hstorcal responsblty and maxmum development needs for Turkey. 2 C Pathway Scenaro suggests that, n order to fulfl ts responsblty regardng the 2 C target, Turkey should cut ts total (cumulatve) carbon doxde emssons up untl 2030 by 2.98 bllon tons CO2 relatve to the BaU Scenaro, reducng cumulatve emssons to the level of 7.69 bllon tons CO2. In order to meet ts far share under 2 C target, by 2030, Turkey s annual CO2 emssons need to declne to the 2010 level of 340 mllon tons. Fgure 5: CO2 Emsson Pathway to Be Pursued by Turkey to Fulfl Its Far Share Under 2 C Target MtCO BaU Scenaro 2 C Pathway Fgure 6: Cumulatve CO2 Emsson Trajectores Accordng to Dfferent Scenaros ( ) MtCO Offcal Plans Scenaro BaU Scenaro 2 C Pathway 33

36 Iznk, Turkey Getty Images Turkey The Reason for the Dfferences n GHG Emsson Projectons? In most developed countres, economc growth has not led to correspondng rates of ncrease n energy consumpton over the last two decades, energy effcency playng a key role n meetng the demand. In Turkey, on the other hand, we see that the strong postve correlaton between economc growth and energy demand perssts. Whle the economy s carbon ntensty (annual GHG emssons/gdp) s declnng n both OECD members and other developng economes, carbon ntensty of Turkey s economy has been stuck at the 1990 levels, wth some mnor fluctuatons over the years. The offcal economc program bases ts growth projectons on the recent economc growth rates and projects a real annual GDP growth rate of 5% n the medum term. However, a more realstc assessment of the global economc conjuncture ndcates that ths projecton s rather optmstc. For nstance, the 2015 Economc Outlook report, ssued by the OECD n Aprl, predcts that global producton wll ncrease by a moderate rate of around 2% n the next two decades, whle Turkey s growth rate wll declne from the level of 3.5% down to 2%. In a smlar ven, the IMF projects that the global economy wll grow by 3% over the next decade whle Turkey s growth rates wll hover around 3.5-4%. The two reference scenaros (namely, the Offcal Plans Scenaro and BaU Scenaro), whch are based on the assumpton that no new polces wll be adopted for emsson reducton, dffer n ther emsson projectons. The emssons growth rates projected by the Offcal Plans Scenaro, whch foresees an average annual growth rate of 5%, are much hgher than those projected by the BaU scenaro that rests on more realstc growth predctons (an average annual GDP growth rate of 3.45% durng the perod). Annual GHG emssons, whch reached 459 mllon tons CO2e n 2013, are projected by the Offcal Plans Scenaro to exceed the threshold of 1 bllon tons CO2e by 2030 whle ths number s projected to be 787 mllon tons CO2e under the BaU Scenaro. 34

37 Low Carbon Development Pathways and Prortes for Turkey Instruments for Clmate Change Polcy and Ther Macroeconomc Implcatons What polcy nstruments may be adopted by Turkey to reduce emssons, and thus contrbute to the 2 C target, and what mplcatons these polcy nstruments may have for macroeconomc ndcators are among the prncpal questons ths study seeks to fnd answers to. To answer these questons, ths analyss employs the Computable General Equlbrum Model. The frst step of the analyss s to specfy the polcy package to be used to reduce GHG emssons. Under the 2 C Pathway Scenaro defned n ths study, we assume the mplementaton of a polcy package that comprses of three man nstruments. Ths polcy package s referred to as the Clmate Polcy Package. The three nstruments ths package nvolves are carbon taxaton, renewable energy nvestment fund, and enhancement of energy effcency: 1.2% GDP SHARE OF THE TOTAL CARBON TAX REVENUE TO BE COLLECTED BY 2030 UNDER CLIMATE POLICY PACKAGE 1. Carbon Taxaton: The frst clmate polcy nstrument used n the analyss s a dynamcally actve and flexble taxaton scheme on CO2 polluters. In the model, the sad tax s mposed on ad valorem bass as a rato of the emssons of CO2 as dfferentated by the source of polluters, energy users, (ndustral) process generators, and households. The model foresees that the carbon tax to be collected wll amount to 1.2% of the GDP by Renewable Energy Investment Fund: The second clmate polcy nstrument s a fscal polcy nterventon to earmark the tax proceeds to an nvestment fund for the expanson of renewables. 3. Energy Effcency: The thrd clmate polcy nstrument entals autonomous ncreases n energy effcency (.e., dependng on technologcal advances and market condtons, and not on any delberate supportng effcency polcy). It s assumed that ths polcy nstrument wll gradually facltate a hgher per unt energy output (an annual ncrease of 1.5%) from prmary and secondary energy sources. 35

38 23% BY ADOPTING THE CLIMATE POLICY PACKAGE IT IS POSSIBLE TO REDUCE EMISSIONS BY 23% RELATIVE TO THE BaU SCENARIO, AND BY 40% RELATIVE TO THE OFFICIAL PLANS SCENARIO UNTIL 2030 The mpacts of these polcy nstruments -dubbed as the Clmate Polcy Package- on emssons and macroeconomc ndcators can be summarzed as follows: 1. Should the polcy nstruments ncluded n ths package be mplemented, annual CO2 emssons are projected to be 506 MtCO2 n 2030, whch s 23% lower than the BaU projectons. When compared to the Offcal Plans Scenaro, the rate of declne s projected to be 40% (Fgure 7). Fgure 7: CO2 Emsson Trajectores Under Dfferent Scenaros ( ) MtCO Offcal Plans Scenaro BaU Scenaro Clmate Polcy Package Emsson Reducton Rate and Reference Scenaros Under the Clmate Polcy Package, Turkey s emssons n 2030 are projected to be 23% lower than the BaU Scenaro, and 40% lower than the Offcal Plans Scenaro. Ths s a vvd proof of the crtcal mportance that assumptons made when defnng the reference emssons growth pathway. When assessng the contrbutons of countres that adopt a reducton from ncrease target, one should consder how realstc the emsson values projected n ther reference scenaros are. 2. Emssons n the energy sector, more partcularly those generated by electrcty generaton account for most of the projected declne n GHG emssons. Should the Clmate Polcy Package be mplemented, t could be possble to decrease emssons from electrcty generaton by 30% compared to the BaU scenaro. 3. Implementaton of the Clmate Polcy Package package wll also lead to a 20% decrease n the economy s carbon emsson ntensty (annual CO2 emssons/ GDP) relatve to the reference scenaro. 4. The emsson level to be attaned by 2030 under the Clmate Polcy Package wll be attaned under the BaU scenaro by The ten year perod nbetween s of key mportance for Turkey to be able to curb ts emssons growth. 36

39 Low Carbon Development Pathways and Prortes for Turkey 30% ESTIMATED RATE OF REDUCTION IN CO₂ EMISSIONS FROM ELECTRICITY GENERATION UNDER CLIMATE POLICY PACKAGE RELATIVE TO BaU SCENARIO 5. Carbon taxaton s the man polcy nterventon tool n the Clmate Polcy Package, and earmarkng carbon tax revenues for renewable energy nvestments consttutes the dstngushng feature of the package. As suggested by the model, f carbon tax revenues are drected to renewable energy nvestments n electrcty producton, excludng hydropower plants, the share of wnd and solar energy n energy mx wll expand. The model results show that the share of wnd and solar energy n electrcty producton wll thereby ncrease up to 44%. As a result of ths ncrease, the shares of coal, natural gas and hydropower n the power mx wll shrnk (Fgures 8 and 9). Fgure 8: Electrcty Mx Under Clmate Polcy Package for Selected Years (%, ) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Coal Natural Gas Hydroelectrc Solar, Wnd and Geothermal Fgure 9: Power Mx Under Clmate Polcy Package for Selected Years (Absolute Fgures ) GwH Coal Natural Gas Hydroelectrc Solar, Wnd and Geothermal 37

40 35% ESTIMATED RATE OF REDUCTION IN NATURAL GAS IMPORTS Regardng CLIMATE POLICY PACKAGE RELATIVE TO BaU SCENARIO 6. The Clmate Polcy Package targets a notable transton from natural gas and coal to wnd and solar energy n the energy mx. One major beneft of ths adjustment manfests tself n fossl fuel mports. Such a transton mght lead to a 25% declne n coal mports, and a 35% declne n natural gas mports, relatve to the BaU scenaro where exstng polces preval (Fgure 10). Fgure 10: Coal and Natural Gas Import Trajectores Under Clmate Polcy Package Compared to BaU % Coal Natural Gas Decomposton of Emsson Reducton Gans by Polcy Instruments The analyss suggests that t s possble to curb emssons once the Clmate Polcy Package s n effect. In the perod of , carbon taxaton and energy effcency gans wll account for 70% of the emsson reducton obtaned relatve to the reference scenaro. Followng ths perod, nvestments to be acheved through the Renewable Energy Investment Fund wll start to take effect. By the year 2030, 56% of the emsson reducton relatve to the reference scenaro wll result from the ncreased share of renewables n energy supply (Fgure 11). Fgure 11: Decomposton of Emsson Reducton Gans by Polcy Instrument Under Clmate Polcy Package MtCO Energy Effcenc and Carbon Taxaton Renewable Energy Investment Fund

41 Low Carbon Development Pathways and Prortes for Turkey 3.3% ESTIMATED ECONOMIC GROWTH RATE IN 2020 UNDER CLIMATE POLICY PACKAGE 7. The gans cted above come wth a cost. Accordng to the model results, the Clmate Polcy Package mght lead to slghtly lower growth rates than envsaged by the BaU Scenaro. The GDP growth rate n the perod leadng up to 2020 wll be 3.3%, nstead of 4%, under the Clmate Polcy Package. It s estmated that the gap between the projected growth rates under the Clmate Polcy Package and those under the reference scenaro wll narrow after the year 2025, eventually dsappearng n 2030 (Fgure 12). Fgure 12: Dfference Between GDP Growth Rates under BaU & Clmate Polcy Package Scenaros Percentage Ponts 3 2,5 2 1,5 1 0, , , , ,0 0, ,7 0, , ,4 0, ,2 0,3 0, ,2 0,2 0, Table 2: Comparson of Scenaros Macroeconomc Results BaU Scenaro Clmate Polcy Package** Total GDP 1, , , , , , , ,074.2 (bllon TRY)* Real Rate of GDP Growth (%) Formal Labour Employment (mllon workers) Informal Labour Employment (mllon workers) Total Labour Employment (mllon workers) Prvate Dsposable Income 1, , , , , , , ,660.9 (bllon TRY)* Government Revenues/GDP (%) Aggregate Investment (bllon TRY)* Aggregate Consumpton , , , , , ,393.9 (bllon TRY)* Prvate Foregn Debt/GDP (%) Government Foregn Debt/ GDP (%) Current Defct/GDP (%) *In fxed 2010 prces **Clmate Polcy Package: Carbon taxaton + Earmarkng carbon tax revenues to renewable energy nvestment fund +Increased energy effcency 39

42 Table 3: Comparson of Scenaros Envronmental Results BaU Scenaro Clmate Polcy Package* CO2 Emssons (mllon tons) GHG Emssons (CO2e mllon tons) Total CO2 Emssons from Industral Processes (Mllon tons) Energy Related CO2 Emssons (Mllon tons) CO2 Emssons from Agrcultural Processes (CO2e mllon tons) CO2 Emssons From Households (mllon tons) Carbon Intensty (Total CO2/GDP) CO2 from Energy/GDP Intermedate Taxes on Fossl Fuels (bllon TRY, 2010 prces) Household Taxes on CO (bllon TRY, 2010 prces) Total CO2 Taxes (bllon TRY, 2010 prces) Total CO2 Taxes/GDP (%) Margnal Abatement Cost of CO2 Taxes (USD/Ton) * Clmate Polcy Package: Carbon taxaton + Earmarkng carbon tax revenues to renewable energy nvestment fund +Increased energy effcency $ MARGINAL COST OF ABATEMENT PER KG OF CO₂ EMISSIONS 8. The model foresees that carbon tax revenues wll correspond to 1.2% of the GDP n The analyss ndcates that the margnal cost of abatement of 1 kg CO2 hovers around 7 and 23 cents (USD). Ths s rather a margnal cost consderng that an emsson reducton of up to 25% relatve to the reference scenaro can be acheved at the cost of a tax burden correspondng to 1.2% of the total GDP. Gven the benefts of such a structural transformaton that wll reduce dependence on mported coal and gas n the energy mx and expedte the transton from fossl fuels to domestc renewable sources, ths cost may be regarded as farly reasonable. 9. The model results pont to slghtly lower employment rates compared to the BaU scenaro, a result that parallels the relatve decrease n the GDP growth rate. Accordng to the model, total employment n 2030 under the Clmate Polcy Package mght be 3.5% lower than the projected employment rate under the BaU Scenaro. Ths result may partly be due to the constrants of the top-down modellng approach. A more postve pcture may come out f sector-based, bottom-up models are employed for fgurng out the employment mplcatons of the Clmate Polcy Package whch foresees a consderable growth n the renewable energy sector. 10. Clmate fnance s not among the polcy nstruments ncluded n the Clmate Polcy Package. In case Turkey benefts from nternatonal clmate fnance for meetng ts emsson reducton targets under the new clmate regme, the adverse economc consequences of emsson reducton may be mtgated Under the Clmate Polcy Package, carbon tax revenues, whch wll reach 315 bllon TRY (n 2010 prces) by 2030, wll be earmarked for renewable energy nvestments.

43 Low Carbon Development Pathways and Prortes for Turkey Employment Generaton Potental of Renewable Energy The Computable General Equlbrum Modellng approach rests on past data and assumes the contnuty of the economc structure extendng from past to present. Ths approach, whch allows observng the mpact of any polcy change on the scale of the entre economy, may fall short of reflectng technologcal advances, changng costs and other dynamcs n the energy sector. Research on employment mplcatons of renewable energy reveals that renewable energy technologes, solar energy n partcular, have a hgher employment generaton potental than fossl fuels. Accordng to the Green Jobs report, publshed by the Internatonal Labour Organzaton (ILO) n 2008, employment (jobs per unt of nstalled capacty) generated by renewable energy sources, especally solar energy and landfll gas, s much hgher than employment generated by coal, natural gas, and other fossl fuels.* The World Bank also states that renewable energy technologes preval over energy producton from fossl fuels and nuclear plants n terms of employment per unt of electrcty generated (Fgure 13).** Fgure 13: Drect Employment Generated by Alternatve Energy Technologes n The Unted States (Average Jobs/GW) 1 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 Solar PV Landfll Gas Energy Effcency Small Hydro Geothermal Solar Bomass CCS Wnd Nuclear Coal Natural Gas Thermal The scenaros that assume a consderable expanson of renewables n energy supply foresee a sgnfcant ncrease n net employment n the energy sector.*** Despte the lack of comprehensve research on Turkey n ths area, we may hold that renewable energy sources and solar energy n partcular may dsplay a hgh potental for employment generaton n Turkey as well. Based on ths assumpton, we may argue that an expanded use of renewable sources may mpact postvely on employment rates n the energy sector, and thus offset, to some degree, the potental contracton n employment projected by the model. * UNEP/ILO/IOE/ITUC, Green Jobs: Towards Decent Work n a Sustanable Low Carbon World ** The World Bank, Issues n estmatng the employment generated by energy sector actvtes, energy_sector1.pdf *** The Energy (R)evoluton Report, prepared by the European Renewable Energy Councl (EREC), the Global Wnd Energy Councl (GWEC) and Greenpeace Internatonal n 2012, predcts that under a scenaro where the share of renewables n prmary energy s ncreased to 41% by 2030, net employment n the energy sector wll expand by 16%. 41

44 Bozcaada, Turkey Tolga Tezcan - Getty Images Turkey Table 4: Annual CO2 Emsson Projectons under Clmate Polcy Package & Alternatve Scenaros (MtCO2) Year Offcal Plans Scenaro BaU Scenaro 2 C Pathway Clmate Polcy Package Total CO2 Emssons* 11,587 10,673 7,693 8,708 * Total Emssons fgures may dffer due to roundng. 42

45 Low Carbon Development Pathways and Prortes for Turkey 1,015 MtCO2 LEVEL OF FURTHER EMISSION REDUCTIONS ( ) REQUIRED TO COMPLEMENT CLIMATE POLICY PACKAGE TO MEET 2 C PATHWAY 2 C Pathway for Turkey The analyss ndcates that through the Clmate Polcy Package -whch rests on carbon taxaton, use of carbon tax revenues for electrcty producton from renewables through a renewable energy nvestment fund and autonomous energy effcency gans-, t s possble to cut carbon emssons by 1,965 MtCO2 relatve to the BaU scenaro. In other words, two thrds of Turkey s far share of emsson reductons to meet the 2 C target, whch amounts to 2,980 mllon tons, can be acheved by 2030 by mplementng these polcy measures. In order to acheve the 2 C Pathway target, other polcy tools need to be employed n order to acheve a further reducton of 1,015 MtCO2 (shaded area) by 2030 (Fgure 14). Whle the polcy nstruments ncluded n the Clmate Polcy Package are suffcent for keepng the emsson levels n lne wth the 2 C target through to the year 2020, emssons should peak around 2020, and decrease thereafter f the 2 C target s to be met (Fgure 14). Fgure 14: Emsson Reducton Trajectores Under 2 C Pathway & Clmate Polcy Package MtCO C Pathway Clmate Polcy Package 60% RATE OF REDUCTION IN TURKISH ECONOMY S CO₂ EMISSION INTENSITY BY 2030 REQUIRED TO MEET THE 2 C TARGET An assessment of the Turkey s economy s carbon ntensty shows that n order to acheve the 2 C target, the economy s CO2 emsson ntensty should be decreased by 60% by 2030 (Fgure 15). Fgure 15: Carbon Intensty Reducton Requred for 2 C Target 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% -25% -50% Requred Reducton n Carbon Intensty of Economy for 2 C Target (compare to 2010) 43

46 To fully acheve the 2 C target, addtonal polces and mplementatons are requred to be put nto practce to complement the polces ncluded n the Clmate Polcy Package. To ths end, sector-based analyses and studes that employ a bottomup approach should be conducted n such areas as ndustry, transport, waste management, and energy effcency. Sectors and respectve polcy measures that could be prortzed n ths context are as follows: 18.6% SHARE OF TRANSPORT RELATED CO₂ EMISSIONS IN TURKEY S TOTAL CO₂ EMISSIONS Transport: Accordng to 2013 fgures, CO2 emssons generated by the transport sector consttute 18.6% of Turkey s total CO2 emssons. After electrcty generaton, transport s the largest contrbutor to CO2 emssons. 40 Land vehcles account for 90% of transport-generated emssons n Turkey. 41 A recent study on Turkey s emsson reducton potental proves that an ncreased fuel effcency n transport (through the adopton of the 2025 target of 35.9 km/l and the 2030 target of 47.5 km/l for cars regstered for the frst tme, whch s an ssue under dscusson n the EU now) could lead to a declne n GHG emssons by 15 to 19 MtCO2e by 2020, and 50 to 88 MtCO2e (mllon ton CO2 equvalent) by A further emsson reducton may be acheved by transformng the transport nfrastructure, and by promotng ralroad and martme transportaton rather than land transportaton. Buldngs: 18% of Turkey s total CO2 emssons are generated by energy use n buldngs. As ndcated n the Clmate Change Acton Plan, there exsts a 35% energy savng potental n buldngs. Realzng ths potental may lead to decreased emssons. An analyss conducted by the European Bank for Reconstructon and Development (EBRD) n 2010 suggests that even under scenaros that do not foresee progressve change n relevant polces, mplementaton of energy effcency measures (ntroducton of energy effcency standards for new buldngs, nsulaton of exstng buldngs, and expanson of solar water heatng systems) n buldngs that postve NPV 43 may brng about a declne n emssons relatve to the reference pathways. The analyss also shows that f these measures are complemented by other polcy nstruments, ther effect wll be further enhanced. In the buldngs sector, nvestments wth postve NPV may help acheve an emsson reducton of MtCO2e n the perod of Cement: Accordng to 2012 fgures, CO2 emssons generated by the cement sector amounted to 30 mllon tons. Ths consttutes 54% of CO2 emssons from ndustral processes. 45 The Ecofys analyss, whch s referred to above, reveals that an mproved clnker cement rato could brng about an emsson gan of 5 MtCO2e n the cement sector by 2030, relatve to the reference scenaro. 46 Accordng to the EBRD analyss, nvestments wth postve NPV may reduce emssons n the cement sector by 7-17 MtCO2e n the perod of The analyss ctes the enhancement of energy effcency and the use of natural gas, nstead of coal, n exstng and new plants as the man nstruments for emsson reducton, statng that a 35% replacement of clnker wth other substtutes may brng about a 23% decrease n emssons. 44 It should be underlned that emsson reducton measures n the sectors of transport, energy, buldngs and ndustry wll also contrbute to the securty of energy supply and ar qualty as well as enable the harmonzaton wth the EU norms and standards. 40 TurkStat, Greenhouse Gas Emssons Inventory, Energy Effcency n Vehcles, Busness World and Sustanable Development Assocaton Turkey, tastlardaenerjvermllg.pdf 42 PBL, Netherlands Envronmental Assessment Agency, Enhanced Polcy Scenaros for Major Emttng Countres com/fles/fles/pbl-2015-enhanced-polcy-scenaros-for-major-emttng-countres_1631.pdf 43 Net Present Value > 0 44 The Demand for Greenhouse Gas Emssons Reductons: An Investors Margnal Abatement Cost Curve for Turkey. EBRD, ebrd.com/what-we-do/sectors-and-topcs/sustanable-resources/carbon-market-support.html (for Englsh verson) downloads/research/economcs/publcatons/specals/turkey_macc_report_turk.pdf (for Turksh verson) 45 Natonal Inventory Submssons Turkey, ghg_nventores/natonal_nventores_ submssons/tems/8108.php 46 PBL, Netherlands Envronmental Assessment Agency, Enhanced Polcy Scenaros for Major Emttng Countres com/fles/fles/pbl-2015-enhanced-polcy-scenaros-for-major-emttng-countres_1631.pdf 47 The Demand for Greenhouse Gas Emssons Reductons: An Investors Margnal Abatement Cost Curve for Turkey. EBRD, ebrd.com/what-we-do/sectors-and-topcs/sustanable-resources/carbon-market-support.html (for Englsh verson) downloads/research/economcs/publcatons/specals/turkey_macc_report_turk.pdf (for Turksh verson)

47 Low Carbon Development Pathways and Prortes for Turkey Prorty Sectors for Clmate Change Mtgaton The share of carbon doxde (CO2) n Turkey s total GHG emssons expanded from 70% to 80% over the perod of Among CO2 sources, the hghest growth occurred n the use of fossl fuels for electrcty generaton. CO2 emssons from electrcty generaton have rsen by 236% snce 1990, and the sector s share n total CO2 emssons has ncreased from 22% to 31%. 31% SHARE OF ELECTRICITY SECTOR RELATED CO₂ EMISSIONS IN TOTAL CO₂ EMISSIONS Besdes the electrcty sector, the followng sectors are the other man contrbutors to CO2 emssons: - Transport: The perod of wtnessed a 159% ncrease n transportgenerated CO2 emssons, and thus the share of transport n CO2 emssons rose from 17% to 18.6%. - Energy use n ndustry: CO2 emssons generated by energy use n the ndustry sector rose by 84% over the perod of Emssons from ndustral processes: Process emssons generated by mneral products ndustry ncreased by 179%, and those generated by metal products ndustry by 51%. Table 5: Annual CO2 Emsson Projectons under Clmate Polcy Package & Alternatve Scenaros Sectoral shares n CO2 emssons (%-Percent) Fuel combuston n electrcty generaton (%) Fuel combuston n ndustry (%) Fuel combuston n transport (%) Fuel combuston n buldngs (%) Mneral products manufacturng (%) Metal products manufacturng (%) Other* (%) * Other ncludes CO2 emssons generated by waste, agrculture, non-energy use of fuels and solvents, chemcal ndustry, and leakage CO2 emssons n energy use. Source: TurkStat, Greenhouse Gas Emssons Inventory,

48 Zonguldak, Turkey Ozgur Donmaz - Getty Images Turkey 31 BILLION $ TOTAL VALUE OF FOSSIL FUEL SUBSIDIES IN TURKEY IN 2013 External Costs of Clmate Change and Hgh Carbon Polces Fossl fuel-based power producton generates, besdes clmate change-nducng CO2 emssons, addtonal costs and negatve externaltes on envronment and publc health. Coal-fred electrcty generaton causes emssons of partculate matter, sulphur doxde, ntrogen oxde, heavy metals and persstent organc pollutants whch contamnate the ar, and drectly threaten publc health. It also causes sol and water polluton whch, n turn, leads to ecosystem degradaton. On the other hand, coal mnng gves rse to dozens of work accdents and cases of occupatonal dsease, employment njures and deaths every year. Accordng to a report publshed by the Health and Envronment Allance (HEAL) n 2014, annual health costs generated exclusvely by coal-fred thermal plants n Turkey le between 2.9 and 3.6 bllon USD. Coal-fred thermal plants cause 2,879 cases of premature deaths, 637,643 workdays lost, and 3,823 new cases of chronc bronchts every year. 48 Costs of fossl fuel subsdes are pretty strkng. Accordng to the IMF fgures*, Turkey s fossl fuel subsdes totalled 31 bllon USD n 2013, whch corresponded to 3.8% of the total GDP. Wth a total cost of 21.5 bllon USD, coal s the most costly source among all fossl fuels. The IMF predcts that the total fossl fuel subsdes n Turkey wll reach 38 bllon USD by the end of 2015, consttutng 4.5% of the GDP. 49 Note: The IMF calculatons take nto account ar polluton and hgh CO2 emssons stemmng from fossl fuel combuston, but exclude the costs pertanng to the mpact of the extracton and transport of mercury, heavy metals and other mnerals on water and agrcultural products. 48 HEAL (Health and Envronment Allance), Ödenmeyen Sağlık Faturası: Türkye de Kömürlü Termk Santraller Bz Nasıl Hasta Edyor? 49 IMF, Countng the Costs of Energy Subsdes, 46

49 Low Carbon Development Pathways and Prortes for Turkey Tmng of Clmate Polcy: The Early Brd Gets the Worm Clmate scentsts and economsts agree that takng mmedate acton to reduce GHG emssons s vtal for avodng both the devastatng mpacts and economc damage to be caused by clmate change. How relevant ths perspectve wll be to Turkey s economy s one of the questons tackled by ths analyss. The analyss explores the consequences of late acton n clmate change mtgaton on the bass of a scenaro under whch the Clmate Polcy Package wll be put nto practce n 2020, nstead of 2015 (Fgure 16). Fgure 16: Requred Emsson Pathways Under 2 C Target n Perod (n case of no emsson reducton untl 2020) MtCO BaU Scenaro 2 C Pathway 2 C Pathway After 2020 (-) GROWTH RATES IF TURKEY DEFERS THE IMPLEMENTATION OF EMISSION REDUCTION MEASURES UNTIL 2020, IT MAY HAVE TO ENDURE NEGATIVE GROWTH RATES IN ORDER TO BE ABLE TO FULFIL ITS RESPONSIBILITY Accordng to the results of the analyss, f Turkey defers the mplementaton of emsson reducton measures ncluded n the Clmate Polcy Package untl 2020, t wll have to endure a consderable GDP loss to be able to fulfl ts responsblty under the 2 C target. In case of late acton, Turkey may have to face negatve growth rates after the year 2024 n order to meet ts far share under the 2 C target. By mmedately puttng nto practce the emsson reducton polces, on the other hand, t wll be possble to mantan the economc growth, though wth a relatve decrease n the GDP growth rate. Ths may be nterpreted as suggestng that the green growth approach s adequate and feasble for Turkey. 47

50 Kackar Mountans, Turkey Getty Images Turkey Negatve Emsson Technologes and the 2 C Target Some emsson reducton models ncluded n the Ffth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Clmate Change (IPCC) suggest that net negatve emsson technologes such as bo-energy wth carbon capture and storage could play a sgnfcant role for the 2 C target. That sad, the IPCC underscores the techncal complextes and envronmental rsks assocated wth the large-scale applcaton of these technologes. 50 The IPCC report draws attenton to the hgh costs of these technologes and warns that these solutons wth no mmedate prospect of large-scale applcaton applcaton mght nvte complacency regardng mtgaton efforts. 51 Turkey may avod the hgh costs, rsks and uncertantes of net negatve emsson technologes that loom large n the future f t takes mmedate acton towards fulfllng ts responsblty n clmate change mtgaton. 50 IPCC, Ffth Assessment Report Workng Group III. Clmate Change 2014: Mtgaton of Clmate Change summary-for-polcy-makers 51 IPCC, Ffth Assessment Report Workng Group II. Clmate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptaton, and Vulnerablty 48

51 Low Carbon Development Pathways and Prortes for Turkey Carbon Intensty of Turkey s Economy Turkey s economy has a relatvely small, yet rapdly growng carbon footprnt. Per capta CO2 emssons n Turkey are below OECD and world averages. It should be noted, however, that per capta emssons have seen an ncrease of over 50% snce An analyss of the economy s carbon ntensty* n Turkey reveals that n contrast to the general trend n the world, the connecton between economc growth and CO2 emssons n Turkey dsplays no progress. Between 1990 and 2011, Chna decreased ts economy s carbon ntensty by 54% and the carbon ntensty of OECD economes fell by 31% on average. In the same perod, the global economy s carbon ntensty shrank by 23%. Turkey s economy, on the other hand, wtnessed a mere 3.1% declne. To put t another way, Turkey generated the same amount of CO2 emssons as n 1990 to produce one U.S. Dollar s worth of output despte such factors as the expanson of servce sector s share n the economy, ncreased effcency, and advances n the renewable energy sector. Accordng to the analyss presented n ths report, mplementng clmate polces wll brng about a 20% decrease n the economy s carbon ntensty relatve to the reference scenaro. For Turkey, ths could sgnfy the begnnng of the dssocaton of economc growth from CO2 emssons, a process that has been observed n developed countres partcularly over the last two decades. Fgure 17: CO2 Emsson Intensty Trajectores Under Dfferent Scenaros Kg CO2/$ GDP 0,60 0,55 0,50 0,45 0,40 0,35 0, BaU Scenaro Clmate Polcy Package *Economy s carbon ntensty s calculated by dvdng the quantty of annual CO2 emssons by the total value of all goods and servces produced n an economy n one year (GDP). It denotes CO2 emssons per 49

52 Denzl, Turkey Getty Images Turkey 50

53 Low Carbon Development Pathways and Prortes for Turkey PART 3: RECOMMENDATIONS FOR TURKEY AHEAD OF COP21 51

54 Canada Gbson Pctures - Getty Images Turkey 52

55 Low Carbon Development Pathways and Prortes for Turkey RECOMMENDATIONS FOR TURKEY AHEAD OF COP21 Turkey should set an ambtous emsson reducton target pror to the COP21. - Partes to the Unted Natons Framework Conventon on Clmate Change (UNFCCC), ncludng 195 contractng states and the European Unon, wll meet n Pars n December 2015 to negotate the new clmate agreement that s ntended to replace the Kyoto Protocol after Pror to the COP 21, each state was called on to specfy ts natonal contrbuton (INDC) to the efforts to meet the 2 C target and to safeguard ecosystems and communtes from the devastatng mpacts of clmate change. Countres are expected to determne ther contrbutons on the bass of ther hstorcal responsbltes n the GHG emssons growth and ther current capactes. - Havng become a party to the UNFCCC n 2004 and to the Kyoto Protocol n 2009, Turkey has not, to date, set any emsson reducton targets. Turkey announced at the COP19 n Warsaw n 2013 that t wll agree to become a party to the new agreement wth a flexble target to be determned on ts own terms f the crtcal mass s reached. On the eve of the COP21, Turkey s n the process of devsng, for the frst tme, ts own scheme (INDC) to contrbute to nternatonal clmate change mtgaton efforts IN PARIS, TURKEY COULD COMMIT TO REDUCE ITS EMISSIONS DOWN TO THE 2010 LEVEL BY 2030 Regardng THE 2 C TARGET - Turkey needs to fnd answers to three crtcal questons as t attempts to determne ts natonal contrbuton to clmate change mtgaton: 1. What could Turkey s responsblty and ts emsson reducton target be wthn the scope of the 2 C target? 2. What knd of a polcy package could be mplemented n order to acheve the requred emsson reducton? 3. What could be the mpact of these polces on macroeconomc ndcators? What are the costs of mplementng and not mplementng these polces? - The offcal projectons suggest that by 2030 Turkey s CO2 emssons, whch amounted to 363 MtCO2 n 2013, wll reach 851 mllon tons by 2030 under hgh growth scenaros, and 659 mllon tons under realstc growth scenaros. In ths study hgh growth scenaros are assessed under the Offcal Plans Scenaro, and more realstc growth scenaros under the Busness-as-Usual (BaU) Scenaro. - To meet the 2 C target, Turkey s annual emssons should reach a peak level of 390 MtCO2 by 2020, and gradually decrease thereafter down to the 2010 level by Therefore, the commtment of Turkey n Pars could be to reduce emssons to the 2010 level by It s possble to curb emssons through clmate polcy nstruments. - As suggested by ths analyss, f Turkey puts nto practce the Clmate Polcy Package whch nvolves three polcy nstruments ([] carbon taxaton; [] use of carbon tax revenues for electrcty generaton from renewables by means of a 53

56 Co2 20% ANTICIPATED DECLINE IN THE ECONOMY S CO₂ EMISSION INTENSITY Regardng CLIMATE POLICY PACKAGE renewable energy nvestment fund; [] autonomous gans n energy effcency), ts annual CO2 emssons are estmated to be 506 MtCO2 n 2030, whch s 23% lower than the projectons under the BaU scenaro. By ths means, t s possble to acheve a 20% decrease n the carbon emsson ntensty (annual CO2 emsson/ GDP) of the economy. - Regardng the Clmate Polcy Package, the level of CO2 emssons n 2030 s estmated to be 40% lower than the projectons under the Offcal Plans Scenaro. Ths proves the crtcal mportance of the assumptons made whle dentfyng a reference emsson growth pathway. When assessng the contrbutons of countres that adopt a baselne scenaro target, one should consder how realstc and sound the emsson values projected n the reference scenaro are. Green growth s vable for Turkey. - Accordng to the model, the GDP growth n the perod leadng up to 2020 wll be 3.3%, nstead of 4% as a consequence of the polcy package. It s estmated that the gap between the projected growth rates under the Clmate Polcy Package and those under the reference scenaro wll narrow after the year 2025, eventually dsappearng n The model results pont to a declne n employment rates parallel wth the declne n the GDP growth rates. It may be possble to regulate the dstrbuton of natonal ncome through socal polcy packages and to mtgate the negatve mpacts by managng the fluctuatons n employment. - The analyss ndcates that the margnal cost of abatement of 1 kg CO2 hovers around 7 and 23 cents (USD). Ths s rather a margnal cost consderng that an emsson reducton of up to 25% relatve to the reference scenaro can be acheved at the cost of a tax burden correspondng to 1.2% of the total GDP. Gven the benefts of such a structural transformaton that wll reduce dependence on mported coal and gas n the energy mx and expedte the transton from fossl fuels to domestc renewable sources, ths cost may be regarded as farly reasonable. - Clmate fnance s not among the polcy tools ncluded n the Clmate Polcy Package. If, n the new nternatonal clmate regme, Turkey benefts from nternatonal clmate fnance for meetng ts emsson reducton targets, the adverse economc consequences of emsson reducton may be mtgated. Expanson of renewable energy, ncreased energy effcency and carbon taxaton may help curb the emssons growth. To acheve a declne n emssons, a transformaton should be ntated n sectors wth hgh emsson ntensty. - Under the Clmate Polcy Package, t wll be possble to reduce emssons by a total of 1,965 MTCO2 relatve to the reference scenaro. In other words, the polcy measures ncluded n ths package mght enable Turkey to realze two thrds of ts far share of emsson reductons by 2030 wthn the framework of the 2 C target The polcy tools contaned n the Clmate Polcy Package are adequate for keepng the emsson level n lne wth the 2 C target through to the year In

57 Low Carbon Development Pathways and Prortes for Turkey order to meet the 2 C target, emssons should reach a peak pont around 2020 and start to declne thereafter. To fully acheve ths goal, t s necessary to adopt addtonal polcy measures and practces. Towards ths end sector-based analyses and studes that employ a bottom-up approach should be conducted n such areas as ndustry, transport, waste management, and energy effcency. Tmng s key: The early brd gets the worm; late acton wll come wth a heaver toll. - Early acton s crtcal for Turkey. If Turkey defers the mplementaton of emsson reducton measures ncluded n the Clmate Polcy Package up untl 2020, t may face negatve growth rates after the year 2024 n order to be able to fulfl ts responsblty regardng the 2 C target. By mmedately puttng nto practce the emsson reducton polces, on the other hand, t wll be possble to mantan the economc growth, though wth a relatve decrease n the GDP growth rate. Ths may be nterpreted as suggestng that the green growth approach s adequate and feasble for Turkey. Natonal clmate polces wll pave the way for Turkey to assume a poneerng role n nternatonal clmate negotatons. - Clmate polces are becomng ncreasngly mportant as they are drectly lnked to such sectors as energy, ndustry, and transport. Rsk analyss of clmate change as an agenda tem s not the reserve of envronmental organzatons. The Internatonal Energy Agency asserts that n order to keep the level of atmospherc CO2 below 450 ppm, two thrds of the known fossl fuel reserves should reman underground. At the begnnng of ths year the G20 nvted the Fnancal Stablty Board, based n Basel, to prepare an evaluaton report on the rsks to be potentally mposed on fnancal markets due to clmate change mtgaton polces. Holdng the G20 Presdency ths year, Turkey should recognze ths prorty and ntegrate ts polcy measures regardng clmate change mtgaton and rsk management nto all sectoral strateges. - Turkey s role n and sway on the new clmate regme wll be defned by the polces t wll mplement at the natonal and local level to adapt to and mtgate clmate change as well as by the emsson reducton target t wll declare. In ths context, a holstc approach to reducton and adaptaton polces s called for. Such tools as earmarkng a porton of the prospectve carbon tax revenues for reducng vulnerablty towards clmate change at the local level may contrbute to create such coherence. 55

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59 Low Carbon Development Pathways and Prortes for Turkey mountanous regons of eastern Turkey, Journal of Hydrology, n revew Karakaya, Ethem and Mustafa Özçağ (2001) Sustanable Development And Clmate Change: An Analysıs of Applcaton of Economc Instruments, 1st Conference and Fscal Polcy n Transton Economes, Manas Unversty. Kumbaroğlu, Selçuk G. (2003) Envronmental Taxaton and Economc Effects: A Computable General Equlbrum Analyss for Turkey, Journal of Polcy Modelng, 25: Leo Meyer, IPCC Ffth Assessment Report Synthess Report, Bosphorus Unversty, 10 September 2015, IPCC 5th Assessment Report Meetng, İstanbul, Turkey. Lse, W., 2006, Decomposton of CO2 emssons over n Turkey, Energy Polcy, 34: Met Offce, Clmate observatons, projectons and mpacts: Turkey, Devon, 2011 Met Offce Hadley Center. Clmate rsk: An update on the scence /0479 Munch RE, Geo Rsks Research, NatCatSERVICE - As at January 2015 Ömer Lütf Şen, A Holstc Vew of Clmate Change and Its Impacts n Turkey, Istanbul Polcy Center, December, 2013 UNEP Emssons Gap Report, portals/50268/pdf/egr2014_executive_summary.pdf UNEP/ILO/IOE/ITUC, Green Jobs: Towards Decent Work n a Sustanable Low Carbon World PBL, Netherlands Envronmental Assessment Agency, Enhanced Polcy Scenaros for Major Emttng Countres Roe, Terry L. and Ernc Yeldan (1996) How Doctor s Prescrptons May Fal: Envronmental Polcy Analyss under Alternatve Market Structures, METU Studes n Development, 23(4): Sarıkaya, Mehmet Akf Türkye nn güncel buzulları. Fzk Coğrafya Araştırmaları: Sstematk ve Bölgesel (çnde), İstanbul: Türk Coğrafya Kurumu Yayınları, 6: SKD Türkye, Taşıtlarda Enerj Vermllğ. tastlardaenerjvermllg.pdf Şahn, Sebnem (2004) An Economc Polcy Dscusson of the GHG Emsson Problem n Turkey from a Sustanable Development Perspectve wthn a Regonal General Equlbrum Model: TURCO, Unversté Pars I Panthéon Sorbonne Şahn, Ümt Türkye nn İklm Poltkalarında Aktör Hartası, Sabancı Ünverstes İstanbul Poltkalar Merkez. Şen, Ömür Lütf., Bozkurt, Denz., Göktürk, Ozan Mert., Dündar, Berna. ve Altürk, Bahadır Türkye de İklm Değşklğ ve Olası Etkler vd_2013.pdf Tell, Çagatay & Voyvoda, Ebru & Yeldan, Ernç, Economcs of envronmental polcy n Turkey: A general equlbrum nvestgaton of the economc evaluaton of sectoral emsson reducton polces for clmate change, Journal of Polcy Modelng, Elsever, clt. 30(2),sayfa The Guardan. November TurkStat, Greenhouse Gas Emssons Inventory, TurkStat, Greenhouse Gas Emssons Inventory, ghg_nventores/ natonal_nventores_submssons/tems/8108.php Vural, Bengsu (2006) General Equlbrum Modelng of Turksh Envronmental Polcy and the Kyoto Protocol Blkent Unverstes yayımlanmamış master tez World Resources Insttute CAIT Database. World Resources Insttute. Pars Contrbutons Data. 57

60 Bungendore, Avustralya Eddsonphotos- Getty Images Turkey APPENDIX: METHODOLOGY 58