Impact of widespread deployment of micro-chp in European electricity systems

Transcription

1 European-wide field trials for residential fuel cell micro-chp Impact of widespread deployment of micro-chp in European electricity systems Predrag Djapic, Danny Pudjianto, Goran Strbac The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union s 7 th Framework Programme (FP7/27-213) for the Fuel Cells and Hydrogen Joint Undertaking Technology Initiative under Grant Agreement Number 33462

2 Objective The macroeconomics and macroenvironmental impact of widespread deployment of fuel cell micro-chp in Europe System benefit of micro-chp Impact on the capacity of primary sources and electricity production Benefits in reducing carbon emissions Synergies between HP and micro-chp operation 2

3 Electricity Electricity Heat Heat Approach Reference scenario Other heat sources: gas boiler, resistive heating, etc. micro-chp scenario Other heat sources: gas boiler, resistive heating, etc. HP HP VS System benefits of micro-chp 3

4 Heat output (kwht) Installed capacity (GW) Optimisation model for generation, and network investment problems No incentives RHI High ,5 Range of mciro-chp uptakes Source: Element Energy FC micro-chp trial data Generation, storage, network, demand data Whole electricity system investment model (WeSIM) 1,5 Apr 215 Jun 215 Aug 215 Oct 215 Source: ene.field WP2 Dec 215 Feb 216 Investment decisions: CAPEX (generation, transmission and distribution network, HP) Operating decisions: OPEX, CO 2 emissions, generation dispatch including RES and storage, demand response, and power flows 4

5 Cost reduction ( /kw) Benefits of μchp OPEX Heat pump CAPEX Distribution CAPEX Transmission CAPEX Generation CAPEX Total Significant increase in OPEX savings as micro-chp becomes alternative to peaking units Deferred infrastructure investment and reduced operating cost are more than 6, per kw of installed micro-chp It is relatively stable within market projection range but it is system specific Higher when micro- CHP displaces output from peaking plant (e.g. 24) Lower in systems with higher RES (e.g. 25) 5

6 Changes in generation capacity (GW) Impact on the capacity of primary sources OCGT Micro-CHP CCGT Low High Low High Low High Low High In the short-term, micro-chp displaces mid-merit CCGT but in the long-term, with large amount of renewables, it displaces peaking capacity (OCGT) Capacity value of micro- CHP (combined electricity and heat led operation mode) is comparable (firm) with conventional plant assuming it provides: ancillary services and capacity for security 6

7 Electricity production diff. (TWh) Impact on the electricity production Low High Low High Low High Low High Coal CCGT Gas CCS Storage MicroCHP OCGT Total Capacity factor of micro-chp Operational drivers 55% 9% 35% Heat led Heat and electricity led The output of micro- CHP displaces the output of marginal generation Micro-CHP produces both electricity and heat (higher energy efficiency) Micro-CHP is a costeffective solution of utilising gas to generate both heat and electricity at domestic level and it improves energy efficiency and reduces system consumption 7

8 Carbon emissions reduction (kg CO2/kW p.a.) Benefit of mchp in reducing carbon emissions Higher saving if micro CHP reduces the output of high carbon gen such as peaking plant (OCGT) Saving due to the reduction in the coal and CCGT s output Lower saving when micro- CHP displaces the output of low-carbon gen Decarbonisation of electricity system Depending on what primary sources have been displaced by μchp, the benefit of μchp in reducing carbon emissions varies It is likely that the benefit is larger in the short term when the grid carbon intensity is high (i.e. supply of electricity is still dominated by coal/gas-fired plant) 8

9 Reduction in emissions (million tonnes of CO2/year) Carbon emissions reduction in Across Europe, the total CO2 reduction is more than 32 million tonne per year in 23 Equivalent to 25% of Belgium s carbon emissions in 215) 2 1 AT BE DE DK ES FR GB IT NL PL RO 9

10 Synergies between μchp and HP /1 Source: Delta-ee and COGEN Europe, the benefits of μchp Micro-CHP operates when the output of renewables is low HP operates when the output of renewables is high 1

11 Synergies between micro-chp and HP /2 Case: 25 High Country: DE When RES output is low, use micro-chp to generate heat and electricity When RES output is high, use HP to generate heat and to improve utilisation of renewable energy In electricity systems with high RES penetration, a mix of HP and micro- CHP will optimise cost-efficiency and environmental outcomes. 11

12 Conclusions The main system benefits of micro-chp are: displacing conventional generation capacity especially peaking/backup capacity substituting other heat sources such as HP in the near/mid-term reducing network capacity need improving efficiency of system operation and reducing OPEX reducing carbon footprint Benefits are between 6, and 7,3 /kwe of micro-chp Benefits are higher for the 24 case but this is an exception as the generation mix in this case is not balanced. Heat-led operation is optimal in the short-term In systems with higher share of renewables or when there is a scarcity in the generation system, a combination of heat and electricity led operation is needed To read the full report on the impact of widespread deployment of micro-chp in European electricity systems, please follow this link: Benefits of Widespread Deployment of Fuel Cell micro-chp in Securing and Decarbonising the Future European Electricity System 12