Impact of Climate Scenarios on Water Resource in River Xiangxi and Huangfuchuan basin

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1 Impact of Climate Scenarios on Water Resource in River Xiangxi and Huangfuchuan basin Hongmei Xu a, Richard Taylor b, Daniel Kingston b Julian Thompson b, Martin Todd b a: National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration b: Department of Geography, University College London QUEST- GSI WATER RESOURCES WORKSHOP

2 Precipitation in China Linear trends of annual mean precipitation for in China (%/10a) (Zhai, 2003) Average Annual Precipitation during in China (mm/a) < ~ 0 0 ~ ~ 1 > 1

3 1. Study Area: River Xiangxi and Huangfuchuan Basin Monthly total(mm PCP_Xiangxi Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Huangfch Xiangxi Mean temprature( ) Annual Precipitation(mm) Monthly total(mm PCP_Xiangxi Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

4 1. Study Area: Yangtze Valley, the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) and River Xiangxi Xiangxi River is the largest tributary in Hubei part of TGR, most close to the Dam. Source: Cai, CIMCGWM, 2007

5 1. Study Area: Location of River Xiangxi Mt. Shennongjia(3105m) Xingshan county Shennongjia county River Xiangxi originated from Mt. Shengnongjia, 94km long, catchment area 3099km 2, located in Northern subtropic, Southeast China Zigui county Source: Cai, CIMCGWM, 2007

6 1. Study Area: River Xiangxi Annual precipitation observed from 1961 to 2004 is 1100mm and ranges from 670mm to 1700mm with considerable spatial and temporal variations. The distribution is characterized by a dry winter and a summer monsoon from May to September. Annual average temperature from 1961 to 2004 is 15.6 C and ranges from 12 C and 20 C. The slopes are covered by forests. The main agricultural crops are rice and wheat in the valleys. Terraced fields are often used for corn and potatoes and a considerable area of tea. The soils are mainly limestone soils in the upper regions and brown and yellow- brown soils in the lowlands.

7 1. Study Area: High Erosion and Nutrient Transport in River Xiangxi Source: Vortrag CIMCGWM, 2007

8 1. Study Area: Location of Huangfuchuan Basin Huangfuchuan is the tributary of middle reach of Yellow River originated from transect of Erdos Plateau and Loess Plateua, 120 km long, catchment area 3240km 2 located in Northern temperate zone, Northern China

9 1. Study Area: Huangfuchuan Basin Annual precipitation observed from 1961 to 2000 is 388mm and ranges from 142mm to 635mm. Annual average temperature from 1961 to 2000 is 7.5 C and ranges from 6.9 C and 9.7 C.

10 1. Study Area: Serious Erosion and controls in Huangfuchuan Basin

11 2. Hydrological Modeling Based SWAT : General Description of SWAT A semi-distributed hydrologic model Water fluxes, Nutrients,Yield, Pesticides, Bacteria Continuous Time Daily Time Step One day to Hundreds of Years Unlimited numbers of Subwatersheds Comprehensive-Processes Interaction Simulation Management Programmed in FORTRAN User interfaces for GRASS, ArcView, ArcGIS

12 2. Hydrological Modeling Based SWAT : Application in China By R. Srinivasan

13 2. Hydrological Modeling Based SWAT: Observed and Simulated Discharge (Monthly) in River Xiangxi flow (m 3 s -1 ) FLOW_SIM(OBS) FLOW_SIM(CRU) FLOW_OBS time(month) flow (m 3 s -1 ) FLOW_SIM(OBS) FLOW_SIM(CRU) FLOW_OBS time(month) Monthly discharge at Xingshan gauging station for calibration and validation period (upper: calibration, bottom: validation, the blue line is observed discharge, and red box is discharge simulated by OBS climatic datasets, and the green box is discharge simulated by CRU climatic datasets)

14 2. Hydrological Modeling Based SWAT: Observed and Simulated Discharge Statistic (Monthly) in River Xiangxi Observed and autocalibration tool parameter adjustment discharge simulation statistics based on OBS and CRU (m 3 s -1 month -1 ) Period Calibration ( a) Validation ( a) Observed Simulated by OBS Simulated by CRU Mean SD Mean SD Nash R 2 Mean SD Nash R

15 2. Hydrological Modeling Based SWAT: Observed and Simulated Discharge (Monthly) in Huangfuchuan Basin Monthly discharge at Huangfuchuan gauging station for calibration and validation period (upper: calibration, bottom: validation)

16 2. Hydrological Modeling Based SWAT: Discharge Statistic (Monthly) in River Xiangxi Period Observed Simulated by CRU Mean SD Mean SD Nash R 2 Calibration( a) Validation( a)

17 3. Climate Change Impact: Climate Scenarios 1.Baseline: CRU detrended climate data (CRU_DTF) 2. Scenarios: A 30-year sequence of climate under the prescribed amount of climate change, years numbered arbitrarily as ΔT degrees warming of global mean temperature from the baseline, based on the climate change pattern produced by the UKMO_HadCM3 GCM. ΔT = 1 (UKMO_HadCM3_1DG) ΔT = 2 (UKMO_HadCM3_2DG) ΔT = 3 (UKMO_HadCM3_3DG) ΔT = 4 (UKMO_HadCM3_4DG) ΔT = 5 (UKMO_HadCM3_5DG) ΔT = 6 (UKMO_HadCM3_6DG) 2 degrees warming of global mean temperature from the baseline, based on the climate change pattern produced by 6 GCMs. UKMO_GEM (UKMO_GEM_2DG) NCAR_CCSM30(NCAR_CCSM30_2DG) MPI_ECHAM5(MPI_ECHAM5_2DG) IPSL_CM4(IPSL_CM4_2DG) CSIRO_MK30(CSIRO_MK30_2DG) CCCMA_CGCM31(CCCMA_CGCM31_2DG) SRES A1B, B1,B2,A2 from UKMO_HADCM3 and SRES A1B produced by 6 GCMs UKMO_GEM (UKMO_GEM_2DG) NCAR_CCSM30(NCAR_CCSM30_2DG) MPI_ECHAM5(MPI_ECHAM5_2DG) IPSL_CM4(IPSL_CM4_2DG) CSIRO_MK30(CSIRO_MK30_2DG) CCCMA_CGCM31(CCCMA_CGCM31_2DG)

18 4. Climate Change Impact: Change in Temperature in River Xiangxi Anomalies of annual temperature under 1-6 DG and 2DG global warming based CRU_DTF( ) ( ) Scenarios anomalies of annual temperature( ) Scenarios anomalies of annual temperature( ) UKMO_HA DCM3_1DG UKMO_HA DCM3_2DG UKMO_HA DCM3_3DG UKMO_HA DCM3_4DG UKMO_HA UKMO_HA DCM3_5DG DCM3_6DG UKMO_GE M_2DG NCAR_CCS M30_2DG MPI_ECHA M5_2DG IPSL_CM4_ 2DG CSIRO_MK 30_2DG CCCMA_C GCM31_2D G AVE_ 2DG

19 3. Climate Change Impact: Change in Temperature in River Xiangxi Anomalies of annual temperature under SRES A1B scenarios based CRU_DTF( ) ( ) Scenarios UKMO_HA UKMO_G NCAR_CC DCM3_A1B EM_A1B SM30_A1B MPI_ECH AM5_A1B IPSL_C M4_A1B CSIRO_M CCCMA_CG K30_A1B CM31_A1B AVE_ A1B a a a Anomalies of annual temperature under SRES A1B, B1, B2 and A2 scenarios based CRU_DTF( ) ( ) Scenarios UKMO_HADC M3_A1B UKMO_HADC M3_B1 UKMO_HADC M3_B2 UKMO_HADC M3_A a a a

20 3. Climate Change Impact: Monthly Precipitation in River Xiangxi Monthly precipitation under 1-6 DG global warming scenarios Change in monthly precipitation under 1-6 DG global warming scenarios based CRU_DTF( )

21 3. Climate Change Impact: Monthly Precipitation in River Xiangxi Monthly precipitation under 2 DG global warming scenarios Change in monthly precipitation under 2 DG global warming scenarios based CRU_DTF( ) for 6 GCMs

22 3. Climate Change Impact: Monthly Precipitation in River Xiangxi Monthly precipitation under SRES A1B scenarios for 6 GCMs Change in monthly precipitation under SRES A1B scenarios based CRU_DTF( ) for 6 GCMs

23 3. Climate Change Impact: Monthly Precipitation in River Xiangxi

24 3. Climate Change Impact: Water Balance in River Xiangxi Water balance change based on UKMO_HADCM3 output for temperature increased 1-6 (%) Water Balance Component UKMO_HA UKMO_HA UKMO_HA UKMO_HA UKMO_HA UKMO_HA DCM3_1DG DCM3_2DG DCM3_3DG DCM3_4DG DCM3_5DG DCM3_6DG Precipitation Surface runoff Lateral soil Flow Percolation ET PET Water balance change based on 6 GCMs models output for temperature increased 2 (%) Water Balance Component UKMO_GE M_2DG NCAR_CCS M30_2DG MPI_ECHA M5_2DG IPSL_CM4 _2DG CSIRO_M K30_2DG CCCMA_CG CM31_2DG Precipitation Surface runoff Lateral soil Flow Percolation ET PET

25 3. Climate Change Impact: Water Balance in River Xiangxi Water balance change based on 7 GCMs models output for SRES A1B (%) Water Balance Component UKMO_HA DCM3_A1B UKMO_G EM_A1B NCAR_CC SM30_A1B MPI_ECH AM5_A1B IPSL_C M4_A1B CSIRO_M K30_A1B CCCMA_CG CM31_A1B Precipitation Surface runoff Lateral soil Flow Percolation ET PET Water balance change based on UKMO_HADCM3 output for SRES B1, B2, A2, A1B(%) Water Balance Component UKMO_HA DCM3_A1B UKMO_HA DCM3_B1 UKMO_HA DCM3_B2 UKMO_HA DCM3_A2 Precipitation Surface runoff Lateral soil Flow Percolation ET PET

26 3. Climate Change Impact: Monthly Mean Discharge in River Xiangxi Monthly mean discharge simulated for1-6dg global warming scenarios Changes in monthly mean discharge simulated for 1-6DG global warming scenarios

27 3. Climate Change Impact: Monthly Mean Discharge in River Xiangxi Monthly mean discharge simulated for2dg global warming scenarios by 6 GCMs Changes in monthly mean discharge simulated for 2DG global warming scenarios by 6 GCMs

28 3. Climate Change Impact: Monthly Mean Discharge in River Xiangxi Monthly mean discharge simulated for SRES-A1B by 7 GCMs for Changes in monthly mean discharge simulated forsres-a1b by 6 GCMs for

29 3. Climate Change Impact: Monthly Mean Discharge in River Xiangxi

30 3. Climate Change Impact: Changes in Annual Mean Discharge in River Xiangxi

31 3. Climate Change Impact: Change in Temperature in Huangfuchuan Basin Anomalies of annual temperature under 1-6 DG and 2DG global warming based CRU_DTF( ) ( ) Scenarios anomalies of annual temperature( ) Scenarios anomalies of annual temperature( ) UKMO_HA DCM3_1DG UKMO_HA DCM3_2DG UKMO_HA DCM3_3DG UKMO_HA DCM3_4DG UKMO_HA UKMO_HA DCM3_5DG DCM3_6DG UKMO_GE M_2DG NCAR_CCS M30_2DG MPI_ECHA M5_2DG IPSL_CM4_ 2DG CSIRO_MK 30_2DG CCCMA_C GCM31_2D G AVE_ 2DG Anomalies of annual temperature under SRES A1B scenarios based CRU_DTF( ) ( ) Scenarios UKMO_HA UKMO_G NCAR_CC DCM3_A1B EM_A1B SM30_A1B MPI_ECH AM5_A1B IPSL_C M4_A1B CSIRO_M CCCMA_CG K30_A1B CM31_A1B AVE_ A1B a a a

32 3. Climate Change Impact: Monthly Precipitation in Huangfuchuan Basin Monthly precipitation under 1-6DG global warming for UKMO_HADCM3 in Huangfuchuan catchment Change in monthly precipitation under 1-6DG global warming for UKMO_HADCM3 based CRU_DTF( ) in Huangfuchuan catchment

33 3. Climate Change Impact: Monthly Precipitation in Huangfuchuan Basin Monthly precipitation under 2DG global warming for UKMO_HADCM3 in Huangfuchuan catchment Change in monthly precipitation under 2DG global warming for UKMO_HADCM3 based CRU_DTF( ) in Huangfuchuan catchment

34 3. Climate Change Impact: Monthly Precipitation in Huangfuchuan Basin Monthly precipitation under SRES A1B scenarios for 6 GCMs in Huangfuchuan catchment Change in monthly precipitation under SRES A1B scenarios based CRU_DTF( ) for 6 GCMs in Huangfuchuan catchment

35 3. Climate Change Impact: Water Balance in Huangfuchuan Basin Water balance change based on UKMO_HADCM3 output for temperature increased 1-6 (%) Water Balance UKMO_HA UKMO_HA UKMO_HA UKMO_HA UKMO_HA UKMO_HA Component DCM3_1DG DCM3_2DG DCM3_3DG DCM3_4DG DCM3_5DG DCM3_6DG Precipitation Surface runoff Lateral Flow Percolation ET PET Water balance change based on 7 GCMs models output for SRES A1B (%) Water Balance UKMO_HAD UKMO_G NCAR_CCS MPI_ECH IPSL_CM CSIRO_M CCCMA_CG Component CM3_A1B EM_A1B M30_A1B AM5_A1B 4_A1B K30_A1B CM31_A1B Precipitation Surface runoff Lateral Flow Percolation ET PET

36 3. Climate Change Impact: Monthly Mean Discharge in Huangfuchuan Basin Monthly mean discharge simulated for1-6dg global warming scenarios Changes in monthly mean discharge simulated for 1-6DG global warming scenarios

37 3. Climate Change Impact: Monthly Mean Discharge in Huangfuchuan Basin Monthly mean discharge simulated for SRES-A1B by 6 GCMs Changes in monthly mean discharge simulated forsres-a1b by 6 GCMs

38 3. Climate Change Impact: Changes in Mean Monthly Discharge in Huangfuchuan Basin

39 5. Summary and Outlook Climate change have direct impact on water cycle: surface runoff, lateral runoff, percolation, and ET. For most scenarios, surface runoff and percolation are most sensitive to climate change. Climate change impacts on water resources strongly depend on the applied climate scenario. Hydrologic impact of climate change using multi-model ensembles of future climate and hydrological model ensembles Quantify the impact of land management on water balance

40 Thanks for your attention!