and the Government of Japan

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1 and the Government of Japan Outreach Event, Tokyo, 6th November, 2012 Resource Efficiency and Decoupling Are at the Core of the International Resource Panel s Work

2 A few words about our International Resource Panel, as it may relate to other UN Panels

3 International policy needs science base Climate Change IPCC Biodiversity Loss Hazardous Substances Millennium Ecosystem Assessment IPBES Assessments under the Basel Convention Ozone Depletion Montreal Protocol s scientific assessments Resource Efficiency/Green Economy International Resource Panel

4 IRP Messages Core messages Resources are fundamental for people and our planet Scarcity is an increasing concern Resource use is highly inequitable Resource efficiency is a necessity and a great opportunity Messages of the first Panel Reports Decoupling serves to make prosperity green consumption and production have environmental impacts Huge amounts of metals accumulated in human society Recycling rates are poor, notably for specialty metals Biofuels are a mixed blessing

5 Working Groups DECOUPLING and resource productivity Environmental IMPACTS of products and materials Assessing LAND and SOILS Global METALS flows WATER Efficiency

6 Steering Committee a broad partnership Government and IGOs: Canada, China, Chile, Denmark, EC, Egypt, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Indonesia, India, Italy, Japan, Kazakhstan, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Russia, South Africa, Switzerland, Tanzania and USA, OECD Civil Society Organisations: ICSU, IUCN, and WBCSD Observers: UK

June 2010: Priority Products and Materials May 2011:

7 Achievements so far Six Reports launched Oct 2009: Assessing Biofuels May 2010: Metals Stocks in Society June 2010: Priority Products and Materials May 2011: Decoupling May 2011: Recycling Rates of Metals May 2012: Measuring Water

8 Is the message used by decision makers? Some early indications show that the IRP reports have supported multiple policies and academic initiatives already. A study is in the making to assess the impacts more systematically. First indications so far: EC Roadmap to a Resource Efficient Europe City of Johannesburg Government of the Republic of South Africa Government of Germany McKinsey and Co (Resource Revolution) Many NGOs UNEP Formation of African academic networks on resources

9 10 upcoming reports... Decoupling Decoupling, Cities and urban infrastructure Decoupling policy and technology options Environmental Impacts Risks, benefits and trade-offs of clean tech Environmental impacts embodied in trade Land and Soils Assessment of efficient and sustainable use of land and soil resources Water Water Accounting methods Water Efficiency and water decoupling Metals Environmental impacts of metals Recycling opportunities and technologies Demand scenarios for metals

10 Some key findings on resource prices Resource prices now considered volatile

11 Some key findings on priorities Studies on environmental impacts converge on the dominance of: Agriculture and food consumption Activities using fossil fuels Housing Transport

12 The majority of specialty metals have recycling rates lower than 1%!

13 Let me expand on decoupling a bit.

14 The classical origin of the decoupling idea: The Kuznets-curve of local pollution. Local pollution rich and dirty Decoupling prosperity from dirt Poor and clean rich and clean! Time and prosperity

15 The South wants relative decoupling (at most), and the North should aim at absolute decoupling. Size (Indexed) GDP Relative Decoupling Environmental Pressure 100 Absolute Decoupling Environmental Pressure Figure 2.2 time

16 Relative decoupling: GDP grows faster than resource use. But resource use still grows.

17 GDP goes with Domestic Material Consumption (DMC)

18 Three approaches to decoupling 1. Decoupling by maturation (overcoming initial clumsiness, saturating infrastructures) 2. Decoupling by trade (problem shifting) 3. Decoupling by intentional increase of resource productivity Relative decoupling Absolute decoupling (To be published and expanded on in Decoupling 2, 2013)

19 Creating the Kuznets Curve for resource use means intentional increase of resource productivity

20 and induce developing countries to leapfrog the dirty hill and tunnel through.

21 Similarly, GDP goes withco2 intensity. Source: Energy Information Administration, USA, 2006

22 So we have to create a Kuznets Curve of decarbonization. rich and carbon free

23 And induce developing countries tunneling through. rich and carbon free

24 Why should the North go for absolute decoupling? Because of the footprints dilemma.

25 If 7 b people had US size footprints, we would need 5 planets Earth

26 If we manage to have fivefold increase of resource productivity, one planet would do!

27 December, 2009 March, 2010 October, 2010 Bold decoupling thinking is at the heart of Factor Five. (Tonight, I am talking with a Japanese team about a translation into Japanese!)

28 Factor Five means a Green Kondratiev Cycle, after five brown Cycles. TV, aviation, computers, Biotech IT Energy productivity, renew. Energy. Cyclical economy Electricity, chemicals,cars Steel & railroads Mechanization

29 The potential for improvements is gigantic. To visualize this, let us ask a question from physics.

30 Imagine a bucket of water of 10 kg weight How many kilowatthours do you need to lift it from sea level to the top of Mount Everest?

31 1 kwh The answer is stunning: One quarter of a kilowatthour! (knowing that one wattsecond is one Joule or one Newton-meter; ¼ kwh is watt-seconds)

32 A few Factor Five examples

33 Passive houses : a factor of ten more heat efficient

34 Superefficient cars Amory Lovins Hyper-car, or Revolution : 1,5 l/100km Today s fleet 6-12 l/100km

35 From 12 lane highways to bicycle centered cities Atlanta Copenhagen

36 Atlanta is 25 times larger than Barcelona, but has a smaller population Ich danke Geoffrey Heal für die Überlassung des Bildes

37 LED replacing incandescent bulbs: a factor of 10 Philips 7W Master LED

38 From Portland cement to geopolymer cement (e.g. fly ashes from coal power plants). Energy efficiency

39 From excessive mining to the Cyclical Economy

40 From using water once to purifying (recycling) it

41 From flood irrigation to advanced drip irrigation

The Another Blue bold approach: Economy Das

- The motto is mostly cascades of resource

42 The Another Blue bold approach: Economy Das Building Buch the Blue Economy 10 years, 100 innovations, 100 million jobs The Blue Economy - by Gunter Pauli. - The motto is mostly cascades of resource use; and job creation! Most of his examples are from developing countries

43 To stimulate efficiency, we could make resource prices increase. And learn from the history of the Industrial Revolution. Labour productivity increased twentyfold since 1850.

44 Labour productivity and wages rose in parallel. This is a fifty years time-window from the United States

45 What I am proposing, therefore, is a political decision to artificially raise energy and other resource prices in parallel with documented efficiency increases, so that average expenses for energy services would remain stable. (Some life-line low prices should be accepted for the poor.)

46 In a world of basically scarce resources (cf. McKinsey s 2011 study), countries and companies pioneering efficiency (and sufficiency) will be the game winners.

47 To conclude: Decoupling prosperity from resource and carbon intensity is an ecological necessity. A five-fold increase of resource productivity is doable both in the North and the South. Appropriate prices can accelerate the transition.

Session 1 Global opportunities for eco-innovation. Identifying prospects and opportunities. Prof. Ernst Ulrich von Weizsäcker Co-Chair

Session 1 Global opportunities for eco-innovation Identifying prospects and opportunities Prof. Ernst Ulrich von Weizsäcker Co-Chair Green Economy means: Green Technology Green Business, and Green Politics