Climate Change and Social Conflict in Latin America and the Caribbean. Washington, August 29 th, 2008

Transcription

1 Climate Change and Social Conflict in Latin America and the Caribbean Washington, August 29 th, 2008

2 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Technical Summary of the Working group II contribution, page 10

3 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change in LAC, expected impacts: Changes in precipitation trends (High confidence) Andean inter-tropical glaciers likely to disappear over the next decades (high confidence). Continuous decline in natural land cover at very high rates (high confidence) Risk of significant species extinctions in many areas of tropical Latin America (high confidence). 50% of agricultural lands likely to be subjected to desertification and salinisation in some areas, by the 2050s (high confidence) Increase in the number of people experiencing water stress likely to be between 7 and 77 million by the 2020s (medium confidence). The expected increases in sea-level rise (SLR), weather and climatic variability and extremes are very likely to affect coastal areas (high confidence). IPCC Fourth Assessment Report chapter 13: Rainfall and deforestation trends in LAC

4 Vulnerability in LAC Climatic Factors El Niño/La Niña - Southern Oscillation Non-Climatic Factors External Factors Tourism (infrastructure, ecotourism) Human Health (tropical, viral, skin, bacterial diseases) Agriculture (food security, bio-fuels) Water Resources (irrigation, energy, human consumption,) Coastal (ports, cities, natural disasters) Natural Ecosystems (Biodiversity Hotspots, ecological services, CO 2 ) Vulnerability: A Function of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity (McCarthy et al, 2001) Demographic Pressure (poverty, malnutrition, water, sanitation, sewerage, health and education) Over-exploitation of Natural Resources (aquifers, fisheries, mining, agriculture, forests, tourism, ports expansion) Pollution (Heavy metals, industrial chemicals, detergents, organic matter, agrochemicals)

5 LAC - identification of vulnerable areas Coral Reefs Climate Change Tropical Glaciers Coastal Wetlands IPCC 2007a Rainforest High Mountain Areas of work: priority sectors technology transfer strategic alliances adaptation measures policy strengthening

6 Climate Change - Water The current vulnerabilities observed in many regions of Latin American countries will be increased by the joint negative effect of growing demands due to an increasing population rate for water supply and irrigation, and the expected drier conditions in many basins IPCC 2008 The following are expected to be effected as outcomes of climate change: Precipitations (including extremes) and water vapour Snow and land ice Sea level Evapotranspiration Soil moisture Runoff and river discharge Patterns of large-scale variability Through the dynamic nature of the hydrological systems, climate change impacts on water are expected to translate into negative outcomes in the following systems and sectors: Ecosystems and biodiversity Agriculture and food security, land use and forestry Human health Water supply and sanitation Settlements and infrastructure Economy: insurance, tourism, industry, transportation IPCC 2008

7 Climate Change - Food Agriculture-based livelihood systems that are already vulnerable to food insecurity face immediate risk of increased crop failure, new patterns of pests and diseases, lack of appropriate seeds and planting material, and loss of livestock Wulf Killmann - FAO 2007 A food system is vulnerable when one or more of the four components of food security food availability, food accessibility, food utilization and food system stability - is uncertain and insecure. Concerns for food systems and food security*: CO2 fertilization effects; Increase in global mean temperatures; Gradual changes in precipitation (increase in the frequency, duration and intensity of dry spells and droughts); Gradual changes in precipitation (changes in timing, location and amounts of rain and snowfall); Impacts of increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events; Impacts of greater weather variability Ericksen, Conceptualizing food systems for global environmental change research Climate Change And Food Security: A Framework Document FAO 2007

8 Climate Change - Energy Energy insecurity stems from the welfare impact of either the physical unavailability of energy, or prices that are not competitive or overly volatile. IEA 2007 Hydrological changes will directly affect the potential output of hydro-electric facilities both those currently existing and possible future projects. Other energy infrastructure, such as power transmission lines, offshore drilling rigs and pipelines, may be vulnerable to damage from flooding and more intense storm events. (IPCC 2008) Hydropower is the main electrical energy source for most countries in Latin America, and is vulnerable to large-scale and persistent rainfall anomalies due to El Niño and La Niña Expected further glacier retreat is projected to impact the generation of hydro-electricity in countries such as Colombia and Peru Key World Energy Statistics IEA 2007 Energy Economic information system OLADE 2007

9 Climate Change - Health Climate change currently contributes to the global burden of disease and premature deaths (Very High Confidence) IPCC Human health, incorporating physical, social and psychological well-being, depends on an adequate supply of potable water and a safe environment. Human beings are exposed to climate change directly through weather patterns (more intense and frequent extreme events), and indirectly through changes in water, air, food quality and quantity, ecosystems, agriculture, livelihoods and infrastructure. It has been estimated that the total excess costs for the management of three climaterelated diseases (diarrheal disease, malnutrition and malaria) in 2030 would be between US$ $3,000 and $17,000 million in different climate change scenarios. (Ebi, 2007*) The total investment needs for combating diarrheal disease would be $67 billion, malnutrition $2 billion, and malaria $36 to $50 billion in (s750 scenario). (Ebi, 2007*) * Health impacts of climate change report to the UNFCCC Secretariat financial and technical support IPCC 2007a

10 Climate Change - Tourism Climate defines the length and quality of multi-billion dollar tourism seasons and plays a major role in destination choice and tourist spending UNWTO Impact Warmer temperatures Decreasing snow cover and shrinking glaciers Increasing frequency and intensity of extreme storms Reduced precipitation and increased evaporation in some regions Increased frequency of heavy precipitation in some regions Sea level rise Sea surface temperatures rise Changes in terrestrial and marine biodiversity More frequent and larger forest fires Soil changes (e.g., moisture levels, erosion and acidity) Implications for tourism Altered seasonality, heat stress for tourists, cooling costs, changes in plant-wildlife-insect populations and distribution, infectious disease ranges Lack of snow in winter sport destinations, increased snowmaking costs, shorter winter sports seasons, aesthetics of landscape reduced Risk for tourism facilities, increased insurance costs/loss of insurability, business interruption costs Water shortages, competition over water between tourism and other sectors, desertification, increased wildfire s threatening infrastructure and affecting demand Flooding damage to historic architectural and cultural assets, damage to tourism infrastructure, altered seasonality Coastal erosion, loss of beach area, higher costs to protect and maintain waterfronts Increased coral bleaching and marine resource and aesthetics degradation in dive and snorkel destinations Loss of natural attractions and species from destinations, higher risk of diseases in tropical-subtropical countries Loss of natural attractions; increase of flooding risk; damage to tourism infrastructure Loss of archaeological assets and other natural resources, with impacts on destination attractions IPCC 2007a

11 SECCI Pillar 4: Adaptation Strategy Climate Change IDB SECCI (+) Vulnerability (-) National/Subnational/regional strategy Climate resilient and low carbon economy Adaptation pilots Institutional capacity Public Outreach Climate Change sensing, monitoring, early warning Preventive risk management Vulnerability Assessments SECTORS Food supply Water Supply Energy Supply Health Tourism MAINSTREAMING Country Sectors Projects EXTERNAL FACTORS Demographic Pressure (poverty, malnutrition, water, sanitation, sewerage, health and education) Over-exploitation of Natural Resources (aquifers, fisheries, mining, agriculture, forests, tourism, ports expansion) Pollution (Heavy metals, industrial chemicals, detergents, organic matter, agrochemicals) Social Conflict

12 SECCI Mexico Federal and State level climate change measures IDB s technical and financial tools Federal Level PECC Support Team Mainstreaming adaptation and mitigation in sectors Institutional strengthening of SEMARNAT, INE, Secretaria Hacienda Federal State Level MITIGATION Information analysis and processing Scenario selection GHG inventory C/B analysis Adaptation pilots Support to the design and implementation of FEFP, and the institutional strengthening of NAFIN in EE Assistance to CDM project promoters, CDM methodology development and creation of validation entities Economic quantification of the impacts of climate change to the Mexican economy Climate Change National Strategy, PECC State Climate Change National Strategy, PEACCs (phase I, 5 states) Tabasco, Yucatán, Tamaulipas, Oaxaca, Chiapas ADAPTATION Sector Policies Pilot Measures Adaptation Strategy Vulnerability Studies Identification C/B Selection Pre-design Foster commercial bank participation in EE projects ME-T1089, Support for Sustainable Projects Feasibility Studies, NAFIN ME-T1110, Support to Energy Efficiency Projects Fund, BANCOMEXT ME-T1088, Support to Mexican Carbon Fund, FOMECAR ME-T1082, Support the Development of the National Stern Report ME-T1064, Support to Climatic Change National Strategy PECC ME-T1116, T1119 Support to the preparation of the Climate Change Action Plan PEACCs (5 states) NFP climate models. MOU with NCAR and other research centers for the development of climate scenarios to help in the development of vulnerability and adaptive capacity studies Implementation of the selected mitigation projects Design of final pilots Implementation Other sources. International funding for adaptation and mitigation pilots

13 SECCI Colombia National and Sub-national level integrated climate change program DNP MAVDT CONPES Adaptation and Mitigation Programs Restructuring Climate Change Agenda IDB Climate Change Integrated Program CONPES - BioFuels Climate Change National and Sub-national plans Political Agencies Hacienda DNP Implemeting Agencies Ideam UPME Cerrejón SECCI (4 pillars) MAVDT Min. Transporte FINDETER Bancolombia Min. Agricultura Min. Minas y Energía Proexport Colciencia Federación Nacional de Biocombustibles Ecopetrol Private Sector MAVDT: Ministerio de ambiente, vivienda y desarrollo territorial

14 SECCI NCAR SECCI is in the process of signing a technical cooperation agreement with the National Center for Atmospheric Research, NCAR. Projects in the pipeline include: I. MEXICO: Assessment of vulnerabilities to and anticipated impacts of climate change over the Mexican Grijalva-Usumacinta watershed using a coupled hydro-meteorological modeling tool. Modeling of local climate over the Gulf of Mexico (particularly southern Gulf states) Development of a coupled hydrometeorological model for the Grijalva- Usumacinta watershed Assessment of vulnerabilities to and anticipated impacts of climate change for the Grijalva-Usumacinta watershed and its implications to dependent communities and ecosystems NCAR Washington DC May 2008

15 SECCI NCAR II. PERU: The IDB is supporting the local government of Lambayeque through the development of a technical cooperation that will help in the preparation of feasibility studies for an irrigation-hydro energy project. Generation of data from downscaled regional models that could be fed into the development of an Integrated Watersheds Management Plan for Olmos including four main watersheds (e.g. Cascajal, Olmos, Motupe, La Leche). Assessment of expected impacts of climate change to the regional climate and the hydrological cycle with emphasis on the frequency and intensity of natural disasters and other climate events such as El Niño. Development of future vulnerability to climate change of local communities and the planned investment. NCAR Washington DC May 2008 PIURA Riego 37,000 ha en Olmos LAMBAYEQUE CAJAMARCA Embalse Limon Túnel Túnel de Embals de aducció Tunel e olmos Conmutador aducció n CH1 transan CH2 n dino TC, IDB Document, T-PE1026

16 THANK YOU CP20965T