effets du réchauffement climatique en France métropolitaine et dans les départements et territoires d outre outre-mer

Transcription

1 Impacts of climate change on ecosystems Marc Gillet ONERC Observatoire national sur les effets du réchauffement climatique en France métropolitaine et dans les départements et territoires d outre outre-mer 1

2 ONERC Created by law in 2001 in order to collect information from research and inform decision makers, local communities and public on climate change impacts Reports to Prime minister and Parliament Guidance to local communities (guides, conferences...) Education (policymakers, risk management,...) Expertise (regions, communities...) Technical publications 2

3 Dates of grape harvest in Southern Côtes du Rhône region Source: INRA 3

4 Progression of the processionary moth of pine trees (Thaumetopoea pityocampa) -INRA 4

5 Number of daily deaths in Paris and minimum and maximum temperatures from 25 June to 19 August 2003 Nombre de décès Température ( C) /6 27/6 29/6 1/7 3/7 5/7 7/7 9/7 11/7 13/7 15/7 17/7 19/7 21/7 23/7 25/7 27/7 29/7 31/7 2/8 4/8 6/8 8/8 10/8 12/8 14/8 16/8 18/8 20/8 22/8 24/8 26/8 28/8 30/8 1/9 3/9 5/9 7/9 9/9 11/9 13/9 15/9 Décès 2003 Temp. max Temp. min

6 A high probability of fires - 13 August 2003 JRC Forest fires meteorological index 6

7 Changes in physical and biological systems and surface temperature From data series out of 75 studies: more than 89% of changes are consistent with expectations from climate warming Source: IPCC

8 8

9 9

10 Number of days with snow at 1500m in the Alps Optimistic scenario (550 ppm) Present

11 Climate change impacts on ecosystems The resilience of many ecosystems (their ability to adapt naturally) is likely to be exceeded by 2100 by an unprecedented combination of change in climate, associated disturbances (e.g., flooding, drought, wildfire, insects, ocean acidification), and other global change drivers (e.g., land-use change, pollution, over-exploitation of resources) (high confidence). The terrestrial biosphere is likely to become a net carbon source by 2100, thus amplifying climate change, given continued greenhouse gas emissions at or above current rates and other unmitigated global changes, such as land use changes (high confidence). Roughly 20 to 30%(varying among regional biotas from1% to 80%) of species assessed so far (in an unbiased sample) are likely to be at increasingly high risk of extinction as global mean temperatures exceed 2 to 3 C above preindustrial levels (medium confidence). Substantial changes in structure and functioning of terrestrial and marine ecosystems are very likely to occur with a global warming of 2 to 3 C above pre-industrial levels and associated increased atmospheric CO2 (high confidence)

12 Compendium of critical impacts of climate change on ecosystems (IPCC 2007)

13 Ocean acidification

14 Ocean acidification Representatives of major benthic calcifiers: (a) coralline algae; (b) Halimeda; (c) benthic foraminifera; (d) reef building coral; (e) deep water coral; (f) bryozoan; (g) mollusc (oyster) ; (h) echinoderm; (i) crustacean (lobster). Representatives of major planktonic calcifiers: (a) coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi ; (b) planktonic foraminifer ; (c) the euthecosomatous pteropod Cavolinia tridentata.

15 15

16 Biodiversity in France overseas territories Cagou de Nouvelle Calédonie Albatros hurleur Gorfous sauteurs Chou de Kerguelen Elephant de mer austral Corail en Guadeloupe Krill antarctique French Polynesia has 20% of the World atolls. New Caledonia has se second largest coral barrier of the planet, with km² of reef.

17 Least developed countries and small islands: A SHARED VULNERABILITY REGIONAL CLIMATIC RISK, INSULARITY, POVERTY, WATER NEEDS/AVAILABILITY REEFS DEGRADATION, WATER RESOURCES, HEALTH RISKS IMPORTANCE OF INVESTMENTS IN COASTAL AREAS VULNERABILITY IMPORTANCE OF PRIMARY SECTOR, FISHERIES AGRICULTURE, FORESTS IN INSULAR ECONOMIES 17

18 Impacts on human health Special report by ONERC in 2007 Main types of impacts: Direct temperature effects (heat waves); Consequences of extreme events; Vector transmitted diseases relation of the propagation of infectious diseases with changes in environment are still very poorly understood; Diseases related to water and to food; Effects of air pollution, including «green» pollution. Main recommendations : Foster research and observation Develop a culture of prevention within the population Improve resilience to extreme events

19 CLIMATIC CHANGE: WHICH PREVENTION? HUMAN INTERFERENCE MITIGATION ERABILI ITY VULN ADAPTATION IMPACTS POLICIES 19

20 Emission scenarios and the EU 2 C objective

21 A possible share of greenhouse gas emissions between developing and industrialised i d countries, in order to respect the 2 C EU objective

22 National adaptation strategy: Cross-cutting approaches Sector Agriculture Energy, industry Transportation Buildings, habitat Tourism Bank, insurance Type of environment Cities Seashore and oceans Mountain Forest Transversal Water Risks Health Biodiversity 22

23 Adaptation strategy 1. Develop knowledge 2. Strengthen the observation system, and ensure its operation on the long term 3. Inform and motivate all stakeholders 4. Promote an approach adapted to local communities 5. Finance adaptation 6. Use legal instruments 7. Encourage voluntary approaches and dialogue with private stakeholders 8. Take into account the specific aspects of overseas territories 9. Contribute to international exchanges 23

24 Provide information for integration of adaptation in planning systems mainstreaming. 1. Develop and share tools for evaluation of impacts (e.g. downscaled scenarios, economic evaluations with specific users) 2. Provide input to planning tools to central and local l communities and organisations in particular ministries (sector approach), local communities, and participate in their application 3. Contribute to integrated local or national studies 4. Public and policymakers information 24

25 Thank you for your attention