Solar Energy Case Study Webinar

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "Solar Energy Case Study Webinar"

Violet Patterson
6 years ago
Views:

1 Solar Energy Case Study 2010 Webinar JOE FICALORA FICALORA & ASSOCIATES & ASSOCIATES 1

2 What is this?

3 The 7 Keys to DFSS Success 1. Active NPD Phase Gate Process 2. Linkage to Growth Strategy 3. Mind-Meld or being in step with Marketing 4. Obtaining True VOC and acting on it 5. Engineering Culture Shift, all engineers 6. The Right Tools, Roadmap & Instruction 7. Project by Project Selection & Reviews, every one, every time 3

4 Situation Solar Energy Installer Prior work Industrial Installations RFQ business Build to specification No VOC No Financial Justifications New Market Segment Residential Solar Installations 4

5 Phase I - DMAIC CONSERVATION reduce usage Phase II - DFSS Design & Install Solar Energy Generation 5

6 Define: Business Problem Cost Focus, 2 year trend 25% year over year 700 Baseline Cost 600 y = x Baseline Cost Linear (Baseline Cost)

7 Measure: Monthly Costs 31 month aggregate of utility bills 50% reduction targeted 7

8 Analyze: Consumption Item Amps breaker duty cycle amps / day Daily kwh HVAC Refrig Refrig Pond pump SPA Oven, misc Well+Water Filter Microwave Lights, ceiling fans

9 HVAC Improve & Control: Conservation Actions Room darkening shades on South windows Thermostat setback times, amounts for HVAC Second Refrigerator Eliminate, 15 years old Well Water Lighting Hot water pipes insulated Flow reducers in showerheads Timers CFLs 9

10 Control: Capability Results 10

11 Control: Consumption decrease 2 year Baseline 7 months Conservation 11

12 Phase II: Renewable Energy JOE FICALORA FICALORA & ASSOCIATES & ASSOCIATES 12

13 Phase II: Generation with Solar Power Capability Attractive Rebate $5.10/w Roof Directions SRECs Is it Real? 13

14 Feasibility: Roof Directions Which roofs? How much space? How large a solar energy system? Is it worth it? 14

15 VOB, VOC Initial Samples FINANCIAL CONCERNS What will it cost? What about rebates, State and Federal? What s the payback period? SREC market pricing? How many installers will quote? Does it add value or decrease the home value? SYSTEM CONCERNS How much maintenance is involved? How long will everything last? Roof or Ground Mount? How does it look on the roof? Will it hurt the roof? What will it look like when finished? WHY WE USE CUSTOMER LANGUAGE! 15

16 Image Samples 16

17 I want to maximize the system's value Voice Affinitization I want to maximize the operating time of the system I want the highest return on my investment that I can get I want to maximize the energy produced I want the system to look pleasing to the home owner I want the system to last as long as possible through any weather I want the system to be operational as soon as possible What s the payback period? Is there enough sunlight with the trees behind us? Where will the array mount on the roof? How much maintenance is involved? Who has to get the permits? What will it cost? Is there enough sunlight in the winter? What it will look like? The appearance is a concern. How long will the whole system last? How long will the installation take? How many installers will quote? How much power can be generated? Do any of our roofs face the right direction? How long will the solar panels last? How long do we wait for State Approval? How do we sell the extra energy generated? How do we sell the extra energy generated? Where do I mount it on the ground? Does the roof require extra maintenance? When can you begin? What about rebates, State and Federal? How many panels do we need? Will you be able to see it from the front of the house? Do we need to reinforce the roof? How does it change the home value? Do any of our roofs face the right direction? How does it change the home value? Will ice/snow damage the system? How long will the whole system last? How efficient is the DC/AC conversion? Where will the inverters be mounted? How can it be damaged by lightning? How does it change the home value? How much of the wiring will show? Will hurricanes damage the system? Where will the wires be routed in the house/garage? Will the roof leak? How will you mount everything? 17

18 Kano Ordering of Needs Satisfied Feeling Surprise & Delighters (Need is not met) C D B A Competitive A Highest ROI, the more the better B Maximize energy production, Physically Fulfilled Condition (Need is met) C Pleasing system look, Dissatisfied Feeling 18 E Taken for granted D Long lasting, E System operational ASAP

19 Deploying the VOC, QFD 19

20 Tradeoffs The HOQ roof Price vs. Power & Payback Time vs. # of roofs & crew size 20

21 Functional Parameter QFD Scores

22 Deploying the VOC, QFD The HOQ top 6 Design Parameters: Functional Parameter Customer Focus # of Solar Panels Maximize # of Roofs Utilized Minimize System Simulation Optimize Solar Panel Power Rating Maximize System Power Total Maximize Layout of Solar Panels Optimize These are the most important parameters tied to Customer Satisfaction 22

23 Concept Development Proposals First Concept: 3 KW Array South Facing 18 panels, 175 watts each, Single Inverter Advantages: Simplicity, low cost Disadvantages: Can We win? Lowest Power, long payback, partially visible from street Not sure this is right. Assuming this is upper roof, above other triangle (below), it looks like the shape extends down on both sides, allowing for 1-2 additional panels. Aesthetics not great. Overall, your best choice. Eighteen panels is a good fit with inverter. We may want to bump this down to 14, to allow for a nice 36 panel array on back. 23 I think this is roofs togethe SSW face (vs leave u

24 Concept Development Proposals Second Concept: 4.5 KW Array South Facing 26 panels, 175 watts each, Single Inverter Advantages: More power, Faster payback Somewhat low cost Disadvantages: Two Roofs, More complexity, Not sure this is right. Assuming this is upper roof, above other triangle (below), it looks like the shape extends down on both sides, allowing for 1-2 additional panels. Aesthetics not great. Overall, your best choice. Eighteen panels is a good fit with inverter. We may want to bump this down to 14, to allow for a nice 36 panel array on More visible to street than concept #1 back. I think this is the right c roofs together, but des SSW face (vs ESE fac leave upper roo 24

25 leave upper roof empty, period. Concept Development Proposals Third Concept: 8 KW Array ESE Facing, Back Roof Overall, your best choice. Eighteen panels is a good fit with inverter. We may want to bump this 40 panels, 200 watts down to 14, to allow for each, a nice 36 panel array on back. Two Inverters Advantages: More power, We can fit up to 40 panels, but likely would recommend 32 or 36, to fit best w/ inverters Faster payback Single Roof Not visible from street Disadvantages: Partially more complex Two Inverters required Although you can fit a few more panel I m not sure that the stair step looks t It s also a tougher install. 25

26 Pugh Concept Selection First concept screening Higher power is better! Use back roof Hybrid concepts Develop next Then repeat 26

27 Design: 9.86 kw Concept Analysis Layout on 3 roofs, NPV= - $4649 Is it worth it? 27

28 Tolerance Analysis Tolerance to model assumptions No SRECs, Fixed Electric Rate NPV: -$4649, IRR 6%, 8.5 yr Payback $1.1K SRECs, Fixed Electric Rate NPV: +$1883, IRR 13%, 6.5 yr Payback $1.1K SRECs, 7% Annual rate increase NPV: +$9096, IRR 19%, 5.5 yr Payback BUT No inverter replacements in this model 28

29 Design: Financial Benefits With inverter 5,10 years: $1.4K in SRECs, 7% Annual rate increase NPV: -$7704, IRR 3%, 11 yr Payback Optimization needed, Shorter payback desired Positive NPV would be nice SREC prices have market fluctuations 29

30 Optimize Develop Power Gen. model: 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, KwH consumed solar prod Accum Cost $3,500 $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec $- Is it worth it? 30

31 Optimize Plan Power Generation, Looks Is it worth it? 31

32 Optimize Maintenance Model $8500 Replace DC to AC Inverters Every 5-6 years Based on External Weather Exposure Optimize: Inverters inside garage Extends life by 40% - 70% Replacement in 7-9 years 32

33 Optimized Payback Model 33

34 Optimize: Financial Benefit With inverter 7 years: $1.4K in SRECs, 7% Annual rate increase NPV: $6354, IRR 17%, 6 yr Payback Margin for SREC pricing changes! Is it worth it? 34

35 Final Capability - Customer View VOC / Need Primary Metric Target Actual Measure Is there enough sunlight with the trees behind us? Is there enough sunlight in the winter? July 22 nd system start time December kwh total 6 AM 5:51 AM 20 kwh 19.8 kwh How much power can be generated? Annual SRECs How do we sell the extra energy generated? SREC market training 2x per year October, May How many panels do we need? System Power 10 kw 9.86 kw Do any of our roofs face the right direction? How efficient is the DC to AC power conversion? Compass Roof Angle from North Inverter efficiency % 96% 35

36 Capability: Monthly Power Generation Solar Power Generation PVWatts Model & Actuals kwh/day expected Actuals recorded 0.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 36

37 Initial Monthly Cost Initially set a 50% reduction target 37

38 Capability: Final Cost Almost on target! 38

39 Consumption Results 60% reduction in net use 39

40 Final Capability 60% reduction in usage 31,451 Kwh 12,721 Kwh 41% reduction in yearly cost $3,944 $2,328 70% increase of net electricity rates Return on Investment $5,129 positive cash flow in 2.5 years Payback in 4.5 years Is it worth it? 40

41 What is this?

42 The National Ignition Facility Los Alamos Labs, California Fusion power offers inexhaustible source of energy for future generations, insurmountable scientific and engineering challenges. Commercialization likely in the decade The Green Future

43 National Ignition Facility June 2003 record for UV Laser output 10.4 kj in 1 beam 2009 completion of construction 2010 scientific breakeven: Energy out > energy in! 100 million degrees Celsius in a controlled manner! All this of current Nuclear Power Costs

44 More Info 44

45 Summary VOC + VOB + QFD + DFSS = SUCCESS! 7 Keys for DFSS Deployment Active NPD Phase Gate Process Linkage to Growth Strategy Mind-Meld or being in step with Marketing Obtaining True VOC and acting on it Engineering Culture Shift, all engineers The Right Tools, Roadmap & Instruction Project by Project Selection & Reviews, every one, every time Info@JoeFicalora.com 45

SOLARPVSYSTEM INFORMATIONPACK FIT PROGRAM

SOLARPVSYSTEM INFORMATIONPACK FIT PROGRAM (Thailand, July 2013) The Thai government has recently introduced a generous subsidy scheme involving Feed in Tariffs. This means that you get paid a premium rate