Nicholas A. Reckinger. June 11, 2007

Transcription

1 Comparison of Phosphorus Forms at Different Spatial Scales and Assessment of an Area-Weighted P-Index to Multi-Field Watersheds Nicholas A. Reckinger June 11, 2007

2 Watershed Activities Affect Water Quality

3 Lower Fox River Basin: Watersheds & subwatersheds

4 Tributary Loads of P to L. Michigan Fox R ~ 25% of total annual load to L. Mich. (US EPA Mass Balance Study; Pauer, et al., 2005) 15% of L. Mich. Area 70% of P load to Green Bay

5 Impacts to Streams & Lakes Increased algal and/or plant growth Loss of fishing and recreation benefits Toxicity with some species of algae Fish kills due to low dissolved oxygen Change in species diversity Reduced light

6 System Stressors

7 Sources (nonpoint) Image courtesy of the Washington State Water Quality Consortium

8 Point Source Phosphorus Loads Figure 4-1. Fox-Wolf Basin Point Source Phosphorus Loads ( ). Average annual load from Fox River is 450,000 to 600,000 kg/year. phosphorus annual load in metric tons ,700 15% 30,850 15% 30,850 32% 68,900 39% 82, ,100 11% 17,700 14% 22,700 36% 56,900 38% 60, ,300 8% 16,300 8% 15,300 62% 125,200 22% 45, ,400 7% 12,200 8% 14,400 56% 101,500 29% 52, ,700 9% 13,400 14% 20,900 50% 75,400 10% 11,700 18% 20,500 44% 49,000 27% 40,000 28% 31,300 Wolf 112, ,700 Upper Fox L. Fox Industrial L. Fox Municipal 13% 14,000 18% 20,300 44% 48,600 26% 28, ,400 7% 8,400 18% 20,500 43% 50,100 32% 37, ,700 7% 8,200 16% 19,400 39% 48,000 38% 46, ** 1982 combined load from from Wolf and Upper Fox basins divided equally as precise fractions not found Annual loads obtained from the Wisc. Dept. of Natural Resources.

9 Fox-Wolf Basin: Why here? #1 trib. to Lake Michigan and #3 to Great Lakes (6,400 mi 2 ) Largest source of pollutants P Loads: ~540,000 kg/yr ~80% from runoff Lower Fox Basin ¼P ½ Suspended Solids New London Oshkosh Berlin Mouth DePere Wrightstown Appleton Neenah/Menasha

10 Lower Fox Basin: Soil Permeability 1580 km 2 (10% of FWB) Clay soils High % runoff mm precip avg ~ mm flow ~ 16-27% baseflow

11 Total phosphorus loads for the Fox- Wolf basin including Duck Creek Fox-Wolf Basin Including Duck Creek TP loads Total=523,895 kg/yr 153,844 29% 265,109 52% 27,900 5% 28,691 5% 48,357 9% Lake Winnebago Industry Municipal Duck Creek Non-point Source Data and graph from TMDL draft report, 2005

12 Impacts: Lower Green Bay Secchi Depth (Water Clarity) Average Summer Secchi Depth for Zone 1 Year Secchi Depth (m) Average 1970's 0.5 meters Average pre z.m meters RAP Target meters Average post z.m 0.54 meters UW-Sea Grant Institute, State of the Bay, 2007 Data from Paul Sager and GBMSD

13 Lower Fox River Year 2000 Landuse and Land cover

14 Lower Fox River Year 2000 Landuse Trends 1954 to 2000, urbanization = 2.6%/year Projected urban area doubles by 2025 to 2030

15 Lower Fox River Watershed Monitoring Program Established in 2003 Multi-year water monitoring program

16 Why Monitor? How much? Where? Driving Factors? Impacts? Long-term Trends? What if?

17 July 19, 2003 Cooperative, Multi-scale project Field, watershed, basin Relate Watershed Characteristics to WQ and Biotic Integrity Improve ability to predict future impacts More informed decision making.

18 Cooperative Project UWGB UW Milwaukee Arjo Wiggins Appleton Inc. USGS GBMSD Oneida Tribe 7 High Schools

19 Major Program Elements Continuous monitoring Sediment & P loading Real-time sensors Watershed modeling Stream biotic integrity monitoring School-based monitoring program hands-on learning, citizen scientists, meaningful data

20 3 water years Monitoring Stations Oct 2003-Sept 2006 Watersheds Duck Creek* (< clay) Baird Creek* Apple Creek Ashwaubenon Creek East River (GBMSD)* ~ 53% of LFB area

21 Year 2000 Landuse Upstream of Monitoring Sites 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Apple 11% 11% 28% 62% 11% 78% Ashwaubenon Baird 27% 25% 22% 7% 8% 65% 67% Wetland/Forest/Other Urban Ag Duck East River 20% 58%

22 How do we monitor? Daily stage / flow Low-flow / baseflow samples Automated Event Samplers Test for Total P, Dissolved P, Sediment ISCO Sampler at Apple Creek

23 How do we Monitor? Daily stage / flow Low-flow / baseflow samples Automated Event Samplers TP, Dissolved P (TDP), TSS Precipitation measured at 22 locations ISCO Sampler at Apple Creek

24 P forms in Load

25 Results

26 Apple Creek trib: May site #3 downstream

27 What s a Box Plot? Illustrates variability in concentration

28 Concentration of Solids ( ) 10,000 AP AS BA DU Total Suspended Solids (mg/l) 1, a a a b a ab ab b ab a b b Event-Flow/Non-Winter Event-Flow/Winter Low-Flow/Combined Runoff Events higher; Duck Creek lower

29 Total Phosphorus Concentration ( ) AP AS BA DU 10 Total Phosphorus (mg/l) c a b d a a a b b a bc c Event-Flow/Non-Winter Event-Flow/Winter Low-Flow/Combined Ashwaubenon Creek higher; Duck Creek lower

30 Dissolved P ( ) AP AS BA DU Total Dissolved Phosphorus (mg/l) b a b c bc a ab c b a b b Event-Flow/Non-Winter Event-Flow/Winter Low-Flow/Combined Ashwaubenon Creek higher; Duck Creek lower

31 Dissolved Phosphorus Fraction Event Flow Low Flow Dissolved Phosphorus Fraction 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 75% - Average Low Flow Ratio 47% - Average Event Ratio 0% Event Low Flow Event Low Flow Event Low Flow Event Low Flow APPLE ASHWAUBENON BAIRD DUCK EAST

32 Flow Conc. X = Mass/time Load

33 Sediment exported per ha of watershed 1.0 TSS Yield (tons/ha) AP AS BA DU EA AP AS BA DU EA AP AS BA DU EA WY <30% of ton/ha = reference yield for Great Lakes streams (Robertson et al., 2006)

34 Phosphorus Yield (kg/ha) Total P Dissolved P TP Yield (kg/ha) AP AS BA DU EA AP AS BA DU EA AP AS BA DU EA AP AS BA DU AP AS BA DU AP AS BA DU & to 40% less than WY04 42% to 55% in the form of DP

35 TDP Load Fraction Water Year Total Dissolved Phosphorus Load Fraction (%) AP AS BA DU % to 61% in the form of DP

36 LFRS-B Precipitation (WY ) 250 Total Annual Precipiation (mm) yr 790 mm 728 mm 675 mm 741 mm 50 0 Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept.

37 Monthly Flow, TSS & Phosphorus Loads at Ashwaubenon: WY ,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Monthly Flow (mm) & Precip. (mm/2) 10/03 11/03 12/03 1/04 2/04 3/04 4/04 5/04 6/04 7/04 8/04 9/04 10/04 11/04 12/04 1/05 2/05 3/05 4/05 5/05 6/05 7/05 8/05 9/05 10/05 11/05 12/05 1/06 2/06 3/06 4/06 5/06 6/06 7/06 8/06 9/06 Monthly Load When are the big loads? Flow (mm) Precipitation (mm/2) TSS (tons) Phosphorus (kg) March Snowmelt

38 Daily Stream Flow (mm) Daily Flow and Loads of TSS and Phosphorus at Apple Creek - WY Flow (mm) Phosphorus (kg) Phosphorus cumulative load (kg) TSS (tons) TSS cumulative load (ton) 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 Daily Load 1,000 Daily Precipitation (mm) /01/04 10/31/04 11/30/04 12/30/04 01/29/05 02/28/05 03/30/05 04/29/05 05/29/05 Daily Precipitation at Apple Creek - WY /28/05 07/28/05 08/27/05 09/26/ /01/04 10/31/04 11/30/04 12/30/04 01/29/05 02/28/05 03/30/05 04/29/05 05/29/05 06/28/05 07/28/05 08/27/05 09/26/05

39 WY04-06: 50% of sediment load in 1% of time Cumulative % of Suspended Solids Load Lower Fox Watersheds - TSS TSS%-Apple TSS%-Ash TSS%-Baird TSS%-Duck TSS%-East ~4 days/yr 40-60% of annual load 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1% 10% 100% Cumulative time percentage 0%

40 WY04-06: 90% of P load in 10% of time (110 days out of 1095 days; 36 d/yr) Cumulative % of Phosphorus Load Lower Fox Watersheds- P P%-Apple P%-Ash P%-Baird P%-Duck P%-East 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1% 10% 100% Cumulative time percentage 42% to 55% in the form of DP 0%

41 Grab samples at or near peak flow 11 source areas ( km 2 ) 4 integrator sites (12-85 km 2 ) 5 events 04 Site 8a Photo Up Stream

42 Sampling Sites & Soil P, Apple Creek Watershed Source Main Integrator Stem Areas

43 Soil P runoff DP Dissolved Phosphorus (mg/l) a 1b 2a 2b 3 4 5a 5b 8a 8b 8c INT-3 INT-4 INT-6 INT-7 Main Monitoring Sites

44 Soil-test P levels in Apple Creek subwatersheds (ppm Bray-P1)

45 Phosphorus in stream and watershed soil. Dissolved P in stream (mg/l) Diss. P in STREAM 5 events in 2004 p ( g ) g Soil test phosphorus (Bray-P1, mg/kg) a 5b n=11 8a 8b 8c SOIL P (samples fall 2003) n=8 Apple Creek Monitoring Sites n=6 n=15 5a 5b 8a 8b 8c Agricultural Sub-watersheds n=3

46 Soil Test P vs. TDP is Surface Runoff 0.6 Total Dissolved Phosphorus (mg/l) y = 0.005x R 2 = a 4 1a 2b 8c 5b 5a 8b 8a Weighted Ave. Soil Test P (Bray P1 - mg/kg)

47 Comparison to Andraski and Bundy (2003) Apple Creek y = 0.005x R 2 =

48 Year Comparison Total Phosphorus ( ) Max Jun-05 Jan-06 May-06 Total Phosphorus (mg/l) a 1b 2a 2b 3 4 5a 5b 8a 8b 8c INT-3 INT-4 INT-6 INT-7 Main Monitoring Sites

49 Event Date Event Precipitation Precipitation Day of Event (mm) 7-day (mm) Intensity (5 min max.-mm) Main-stem peak flow (cfs) 1 3/28/ /14/ /21/ /23/ /11/ /13/ /29/ * 8 5/14/ * Average daily flow (ice-affected)

50 Year Comparison Total Dissolved P ( ) 1.40 Max Jun-05 Jan-06 May-06 Dissolved Phosphorus (mg/l) a 1b 2a 2b 3 4 5a 5b 8a 8b 8c INT-3 INT-4 INT-6 INT-7 Main Monitoring Sites

51 Year Comparison TDP/TP Fraction ( ) 1.00 Jun-05 Jan-06 May-06 Dissolved Phosphours Fraction a 1b 2a 2b 3 4 5a 5b 8a 8b 8c INT-3 INT-4 INT-6 INT-7 Main Monitoring Sites

52 Satellite image May 19, 2000

53 RAP Recommendation: Reduce total phosphorus load from Fox River to Green Bay by 50% Fox River Apple Creek

54 Baird Creek: South vs. North Branches 60-70% of Sediment Load <20% of area

55 Simulated Phosphorus Loading to Lower Green Bay from the LFR Basin loading originating from Lake Winnebago is about 287,980 kg/yr. Monitoring data used to build models of watershed sources of P and sediment. Allocate needed load reductions. TMDL

56 Cooperators UWGB UW Milwaukee Arjo Wiggins Appleton Inc. USGS GBMSD Oneida Tribe 7 High Schools EPA