NOAA Ecological Forecasting Roadmap
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1 NOAA Ecological Forecasting Roadmap Allison Allen NOAA Ecological Forecasting Roadmap Portfolio Manager September 16, 2014
2 2 What Are Ecological Forecasts? Ecological forecasts predict likely changes in ecosystems in response to environmental drivers and resulting impacts to people, economies and communities. Ecological forecasts provide early warnings of the possible effects of ecosystem changes (e.g., harmful algal blooms, hypoxia, etc.) on coastal systems and human well-being with sufficient lead time to allow for corrective or mitigative actions.
3 Why is Ecological Forecasting Important? Oceans and coasts are constantly changing Aids scientists to determine environmental conditions Allows policy-makers to make informed decisions locally, regionally, or for the coast Helps decision-makers respond to natural and man-made disasters, such as chemical run-off and oil spills 3
4 NOAA s Ecological Forecasting Roadmap: What we will achieve Strong science to enable delivery of forecasts Delivery of more products and services building on existing NOAA and partner capacity Delivery of more consistent, efficient, reliable, and national forecasts (tailored to region-specific needs)
5
6 NOAA Ecological Forecasting Roadmap Structure and Priorities 6 Focus Areas: HABs, Hypoxia, Pathogens, Habitat/Species Distribution EF Executive Steering Committee Selected based on relative maturity and potential readiness to transition to operations Nation-wide applicability to NOAA s core missions well-identified needs with strong, interested constituencies HAB Team Hypoxia Team + EF Portfolio Manager Allison Allen, (NOS) Pathogens Team Infrastructure Team Species Distribution Team
7 Research to Operations (R2O) Importance R2O provides services to users Allows researchers to continue improving operational forecasts Gives broad visibility to the research Operational analysis continually identifies areas of needed research Provides reliable up-to-date information for continual research
8 Forecasts Under Development 8 HAB: West Florida Shelf (operational) Texas (operational) Lake Erie (demo/experimental) Gulf of Maine (demo/experimental) Puget Sound (demo/experimental) Washington Coast (demo/experimental) California (future) Chesapeake Bay (future) Hypoxia: Gulf of Mexico (demo/experimental) Chesapeake Bay (demo/experimental) Puget Sound (demo/experimental) Pathogens: Chesapeake Bay (demo/experimental) Delaware Bay (demo/experimental) Tampa Bay (demo/experimental) Gulf of Mexico (future, location may change)
9 Leveraging Core Infrastructure Environmental Intelligence Network Coastal and meteorological observations Modeling Backbone NWS/NCEP high performance computing Shared coastal modeling development and community modeling testbed Integrated product delivery AWIPS GIS technology NOAA Platforms
10
11 Ecological Forecasting Modeling Gaps Need to plan for entire R2O process upfront Identify operator Establish a Con-Ops Understand modeling requirements Identify resources for transition and operation activities 11 Hypoxia: Build on the initial work of the testbed on Chesapeake Bay Hypoxia and use of hydrodynamic models to improve forecasts. Integrate nutrient-based models with living resource models Pathogens: Improved capacity for modeling additional environmental parameters (e.g. water clarity, chlorophyll). HAB and Species Distribution: Evolving Cross-cutting: Earth system modeling; Advancing coupled physical and biogeochemical models Continue coverage of operational forecast systems; coupling of hydrologic and coastal models
12 Opportunities for Collaboration 12 Observations and Modeling gaps Transitioning mature research Forecast Development and Delivery Outreach Webinar Discussion Discussion of priorities and key activities Identify specific areas of collaboration Integrate partnership opportunities into the revised EFR Action Plan
13 Questions & Discussion Contact: x161
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