George Luber, PhD Division of Environmental Hazards and Health Effects National Center for Environmental Health Centers for Disease Control and

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1 George Luber, PhD Division of Environmental Hazards and Health Effects National Center for Environmental Health Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

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7 Using All-Cause Mortality: Temperature-mortality relation for 11 US cities, Curriero et al. 2002

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9 Data courtesy of Golden et. al 2008 unpublished data

10 Future Drivers of Heat-related Morbidity and Mortality Climate Change Frequency of extreme heat events Demographic change Aging population Urbanization Built environments Urban Heat Island Stagnant Air Masses

11 Climate Change Predictions Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): Cities that currently experience heat waves are expected to be further challenged by an increased number, intensity and duration of heat waves during the course of the century. [very high confidence]

12 July Heat Index Change -- 21st Century Map by B. Felzer, UCAR, based on data from Canadian and Hadley modeling centers. A July day in Atlanta that now reaches a heat index of 105 F would reach a heat index of 115 F in the Hadley model, and 130 F in the Canadian model.

13 Warming in the US is projected to vary by region

14 Extremes impact people more than mean Peterson et al., 2007b

15 Some occurrences will be well beyond historical experience European heat wave of 2003 from Schär et al., 2004 CONFIRMED MORTALITY UK 2,091 Italy 3,134 France 14,802 Portugal 1,854 Spain 4,151 Switzerland 975 Netherlands 1,400-2,200 Germany 1,410 TOTAL 29,817-30,61 7 Haines et al. Climate change and human health: Impacts, vulnerability and public health. Public Health 2006;120:

16 Future Drivers of Heat-related Morbidity and Mortality: Demographic change Population Pyramids of the U.S and 2050 (Interim Projections from 2000 Census) 2000 % of Total Population 2050 Data source: Census Population Projections

17 Adapted from: United Nations World Urbanization Prospects, 2008

18 Trend: Population over Age 80, United States Adapted from: United Nations World Urbanization Prospects, 2008

19 Trend: Global Population over Age 60 Source: United Nations World Population Ageing, 2007

20 Trend: Urbanization of Global Populations In 2008, for the first time in history, the proportion of the population living in the world's urban areas reached 50%. Source: United Nations World Urbanization Prospects, 2008

21 Urban built environments Cities amplify the impacts of climate change increasing health risks. Concentration of vulnerable populations: Today, more than half of the world s population lives in cities, up from 30% in By 2100 there will be 100 million more people > 65 years old (relative to 2000) (Ebi et al. 2006). Urban heat islands

22 Urban Heat Island can add 7 12 F ASTER Thermal Satellite Image of Phoenix, AZ Night Surface Temperature

23 Future Drivers of Heat-related Morbidity and Mortality: Urban Heat Island The urban heat island effect: Temperature is magnified by the combined effect of the high thermal mass provided by concrete and blacktop roads, The low ventilation ability of the urban canyons created by tall buildings, High concentration of point-source heat emitted from vehicles and air conditioners, magnifies the temperature Relative to the surrounding rural and suburban areas, the UHI effect can add from 1 C to 6 C (2 to 10 F) to ambient air temperature. The UHI effect serves to absorb heat during the daytime and radiate it out at night, raising the nighttime minimum temperatures

24 Neighborhood Microclimates within the UHI Slide on the Phoenix neighborhood study Mean Heat Wave Summertime Temp (F) Temp (F) 106 F 118 F 104 F 99 F Harlan et al 2006

25 Heat Island Impacts on Air Pollution

26 Heat Island and CO 2 Dome impact on Urban Aeroallergens Ragweed CO 2 and temperature pollen counts, longer growing season Source: Ziska et al., J Allerg Clin Immunol 2003;111:290-95; Graphic: Wall Street Journal, 3 May 2007.

27 Climate Change Direct Effects of Hydrologic Extremes drier climates forest fires and smoke Vulnerable Populations: Young Children Elderly Pregnant Women People with Preexisting Respiratory and Cardiac Diseases Source: Ziska et al., J Allerg Clin Immunol 2003;111:290-95; Graphic:

28 CDC s Priority health actions for climate change Identify locations and population groups at greatest risk for specific health threats, such as heat waves, Examples: Epidemiologic investigations Vulnerability mapping

29 Objective: to develop a new research methodology that provides local and regional governments a new set of skills and tools in prevention and emergency response planning for acute and chronic urban climate impacts.

30 Map courtesy of Golden et. al 2008 unpublished data

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32 NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) has been widely used for measuring and monitoring plant growth, vegetation cover, and biomass production from multispectral satellite data

33 Albedo is the ratio of the amount of electromagnetic radiation reflected by a body to the amount of radiation incipient upon it. The value is between 0 and 1, where 0 indicates no reflectivity. Usually, an object that has higher albedo has lower heat storage capacities and lower surface temperature Courtesy of Golden et. al 2008 unpublished data

34 Areas with high heat calls correspond to areas that have relatively high crime incidents; The number of people as well as the number of residents over 65 years old as opposed to percentage of the population over 65 years old are positively correlated to the heat calls, suggesting that the sheer number of people is an important consideration during heat events % African-American is positively correlated with the heat calls; % Hispanic is negatively correlated,

35 Map courtesy of D. Johnson, 2008 unpublished data

36 Composite Vulnerability Map

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38 Thank You Contact: George Luber, PhD Associate Director for Global Climate Change National Center for Environmental Health Tel: