MISSOURI RIVER BASIN WATER MANAGEMENT SPRING 2018 PUBLIC MEETINGS

Transcription

1 MISSOURI RIVER BASIN WATER MANAGEMENT SPRING 2018 PUBLIC MEETINGS April 17 th 10:00 a.m. Smithville, MO April 17 th 4:00 p.m. Omaha, NE April 18 th 10:00 a.m. Pierre, SD April 18 th 6:00 p.m. Bismarck, ND April 19 th 10:00 a.m. Fort Peck, MT

2 MISSOURI RIVER MAINSTEM RESERVOIR SYSTEM 2 FORT PECK GARRISON OAHE BIG BEND FORT RANDALL GAVINS POINT

3 OUR MISSION 3 Regulate Missouri River Mainstem Reservoirs to Support Congressionally Authorized Purposes FLOOD CONTROL NAVIGATION HYDROPOWER WATER SUPPLY FISH & WILDLIFE (T&E) IRRIGATION WATER QUALITY CONTROL RECREATION Flood Control Navigation Hydropower Water Supply Fish & Wildlife including Threatened & Endangered Species Irrigation Water Quality Control Recreation

4 4

5 USACE RESERVOIR STORAGE CAPACITY 5 Height Indicates Relative Volume (acre-feet) > 10 Mil < 10 Mil to > 1 Mil < 1Mil to > 500 K < 500 K to > 250 K < 250 K to > 100 K < 100 K

6 MISSOURI RIVER MAINSTEM SYSTEM STORAGE ZONES AND ALLOCATIONS 6 Historic max EXCLUSIVE FLOOD CONTROL 7% 72.4 ANNUAL FLOOD CONTROL & MULTIPLE USE 16% CARRYOVER MULTIPLE USE 53% WE ARE HERE April 16, Historic min STORAGE IN MILLION ACRE FEET (MAF) PERMANENT POOL 24%

7 CURRENT RESERVOIR LEVELS APRIL 16, FORT PECK 3.6 feet above base of Annual Flood Control Zone. GARRISON 3.0 feet above base of Annual Flood Control Zone OAHE 2.3 feet above base of Annual Flood Control Zone. FORT RANDALL 5.8 feet above base of Annual Flood Control Zone.

8 RUNOFF COMPONENTS 8 PLAINS SNOWPACK MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK RAINFALL MARCH and APRIL MAY, JUNE, and JULY THROUGHOUT THE YEAR 2018 FORECAST* = 33.0 MILLION ACRE FEET (MAF) *APRIL 15 FORECAST 130% OF AVERAGE

9 PLAINS SNOWPACK 9 April 16, 2018 Source: NOAA National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center (NOHRSC)

10 MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK - APRIL 15, The Missouri River basin mountain snowpack normally peaks near April % 148 % 93% 136% Source: USDA, Natural Resources Conservation Service

11 OBSERVED PRECIPITATION 11 Previous 90 Days Previous 30 Days Source: High Plains Regional Climate Center

12 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS 12 Apr May - Jun Jul Aug - Sep Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center

13 DROUGHT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND OUTLOOK 13 Source: National Drought Mitigation Center Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center

14 ANNUAL RUNOFF ABOVE SIOUX CITY, IA Actual Drought Periods Current Forecast MED Historic Drought Periods 2018 MILLION ACRE FEET (MAF) Median YEARS

15 MONTHLY RUNOFF ABOVE SIOUX CITY, IA CALENDAR YEAR FORECAST 33.0 MAF 8 Forecast Average Observed 7 MILLION ACRE FEET (MAF) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec MONTHS

16 Service Level Increase 16 Purpose Evacuation of System flood storage Long evacuation period at lowest rate to reduce flood risk Provides flexibility to temporarily reduce project releases to lessen downstream flood impacts Master Manual Criteria Based on Plate VI-1 Water Supply Observed System storage Remaining forecasted runoff above Gavins Point Available storage in Reclamation reservoirs Service Level Adjustment of 15,000 cfs (mid-april check) Additional adjustments, if needed, as the runoff year progresses

17 EXPECTED RESULTS FOR AUTHORIZED PURPOSES IN

18 SYSTEM STORAGE - APRIL 1 FORECAST System Storage Check Median Top of Exclusive Flood Control 72.4 MAF SYSTEM STORAGE (MAF) Upper Basic and Lower Basic Base of Annual Flood Control 56.1 MAF 2011 Base of Exclusive Flood Control 67.7 MAF J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F YEARS

19 FORT PECK - APRIL 1 FORECAST Median Upper Basic and Lower Basic Top of Exclusive Flood Control 2250 feet Base of Exclusive Flood Control 2246 feet ELEVATION IN FEET Base of Annual Flood Control 2234 feet J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F 2017 YEARS

20 GARRISON - APRIL 1 FORECAST Median Upper Basic and Lower Basic Top of Exclusive Flood Control 1854 feet Base of Exclusive Flood Control 1850 feet ELEVATION IN FEET Base of Annual Flood Control feet J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F 2017 YEARS

21 OAHE - APRIL 1 FORECAST Median Upper Basic and Lower Basic Top of Exclusive Flood Control 1620 feet Base of Exclusive Flood Control 1617 feet ELEVATION IN FEET Base of Annual Flood Control feet J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F 2017 YEARS

22 FLOOD CONTROL 22 All 2017 flood water evacuated from reservoir system by mid-january Service level increases (mid-mar, early April and mid-april) Additional adjustments, if needed Storage space available to capture runoff and reduce releases for downstream events Flooding can still occur due to rainfall Ability to reduce downstream stages diminishes as you move downstream due to increased travel times and uncontrolled drainage area

23 HYDROPOWER Gavins Point Fort Randall Big Bend Oahe Garrison Fort Peck Forecast BILLION kwh YEARS

24 NAVIGATION 24 Flow support for 1 st half of navigation season 15,000 cfs above full service flows Additional adjustments if needed for flood water evacuation Revised target flows Sioux City = 46,000 cfs Omaha = 46,000 cfs Nebraska City = 52,000 cfs Kansas City = 56,000 cfs Flow support for 2 nd half of navigation season July 1 storage check Above full service flow support likely 10-day season length extension likely

25 WATER SUPPLY WATER QUALITY IRRIGATION RECREATION 25 Above average elevations and releases No impacts expected to irrigation and recreation Water supply (April 1 Forecast) Gavins Point winter releases 20,000 cfs under basic and upper basic Winter releases 13,500 cfs under lower basic runoff No access issues expected

26 2018 FISH AND WILDLIFE 26 Steady to rising pool levels at upper three reservoirs during forage fish spawn Favor Garrison if runoff not sufficient Minimize periods of zero releases at Fort Randall to the extent possible

27 ENDANGERED SPECIES ACT OF Each Federal Agency shall... ensure that any action authorized, funded, or carried out by such agency is not likely to jeopardize the continued existence of any endangered or threatened species or result in the destruction or adverse modification of habitat Interior Least Tern Listed Endangered 1986 Pallid Sturgeon Listed Endangered 1990 Piping Plover Listed Threatened 1986

28 THREATENED AND ENDANGERED SPECIES PIPING PLOVER AND LEAST TERN 28 Gavins Point releases Steady release flow to target Daily release cycle Intra-day peaking patterns Garrison & Fort Randall Measures to minimize take

29 THREATENED AND ENDANGERED SPECIES BI-MODAL SPRING PULSE PALLID STURGEON Amended Biological Opinion Reasonable and Prudent Alternative March and May spring pulses not implemented in 2018 Pursuing independent science advisory panel (ISAP) recommendations Forego spring pulse while developing Management Plan Management Plan Final EIS expected in fall 2018

30 SUMMARY 30 Above average runoff forecast Reservoir levels higher than average Reservoir releases higher than average

31 31 THANK YOU! John Remus, P.E Kevin Grode, P.E Mike Swenson, P.E Website: nwd.usace.army.mil/mrwm Search: Corps Missouri River on Google Social Media: Facebook: nwdusace Twitter: nwdusace #MORiver