State of play for a European operational monitoring system for fossil fuel CO 2 emissions

Transcription

1 State of play for a European operational monitoring system for fossil fuel CO 2 emissions Y.J. Meijer, M.R. Drinkwater ESA, Noordwijk, The Netherlands B. Pinty, H. Zunker EC, DG-GROW, Brussels, Belgium Contributions from many experts Major international institutions ESA UNCLASSIFIED - For Official Use

2 User Requirements in Copernicus Established through: Policy needs Service evolution strategic needs GMV User Requirements collection study EC Thematic Workshops Interaction with Member States Initial High Level Requirements à (via Expert Group) à consolidation of mission objectives & observation requirements à Mission Requirements Document (MRD) ESA UNCLASSIFIED - For Official Use Y.J. Meijer 08/06/2017 Slide 2

3 User workshops: Interim conclusion Environmental observation needs to be further investigated within Copernicus as possible evolution: Priority 1: Greenhouse gas monitoring, specifically anthropogenic CO 2 emissions, Priority 2: Monitoring the Polar regions, specifically the arctic for sea ice and icebergs Monitoring Agriculture, specifically through thermal infrared observations Priority 3: Mining, biodiversity, soil moisture and other parameters, requiring observations in spectral bands currently not available ESA UNCLASSIFIED - For Official Use Y.J. Meijer 08/06/2017 Slide 3

4 CO 2 Monitoring Mission Objectives The high-level monitoring system objectives are 1) to provide policy-relevant information (trends, impacts of measures), 2) to support national emission inventories, 3) to observe strong point & area sources (e.g., power plants and cities). As part of an integrated system comprising: satellite - in-situ modelling - emission inventory components, for provision of timely input to policymakers In view of the above system objectives, the following mission objective of the space component has been tentatively formulated: The CO 2 mission shall monitor anthropogenic CO 2 emissions using high spatial resolution imaging of total column CO 2 ESA UNCLASSIFIED - For Official Use Y.J. Meijer 08/06/2017 Slide 4

5 CO 2 Monitoring Task Force (CO 2 -MTF) Dedicated Task Force with: Sub-task A (lead by EC-GROW & ESA): Group of experts focusing on the space component Output: mission requirements document Sub-task B (lead by EC-GROW & EC-JRC): Group of experts focusing on the end-to-end monitoring system Output: user requirements and initial high-level system architecture Requirements (RQs) sequence: User RQs à product RQs à satellite product RQs à observation RQs à instrument Policy à level-4 à level-2 à level-1 à level-0 ESA UNCLASSIFIED - For Official Use Y.J. Meijer 08/06/2017 Slide 5

6 Consolidating Requirements open points Main open points: Complementary NO2 and/or CO observations for attribution of anthropogenic emission sources à Y/N? Complementary aerosol/cloud observations for light path correction à Y/N? Temporal/spatial coverage à how many satellites? Required precision à SNR and spectral sizing? ESA UNCLASSIFIED - For Official Use Y.J. Meijer 08/06/2017 Slide 6

7 Consolidating Requirements ESA studies Several support studies by ESA to consolidate the Mission Requirements Document (MRD) Study Sys. Prod. Obs. Ins. Start End Prime Study on CCFFDAS XX X Q Q Inversion lab Study on PMIF X XX Q Q LSCE Study on NO 2 -CO X XX XX Q Q EMPA Study on aerosol XX XX Q Q SRON Study on spectral sizing XX X Q Q SRON Study on E2ES X XX Q Q IUP Bremen Sys. & ins. pre-dev X XX Q Q Various ACADIA airborne sys. X X XX Q TBD OHB ESA UNCLASSIFIED - For Official Use Y.J. Meijer 08/06/2017 Slide 7

8 ESA study (1/5): CCFFDAS Carbon Cycle and Fossil-Fuel Data Assimilation System (CCFFDAS) Key output: XCO 2 precision, spatial and temporal coverage (L2) requirements for MRD, design options of CO 2 monitoring system including all system components Method: assess uncertainty reductions in fossil fuel and biogenic fluxes considering several system design options ESA UNCLASSIFIED - For Official Use Y.J. Meijer 08/06/2017 Slide 8

9 ESA study (2/5): PMIF Poor Man s Inversion Framework (PMIF) Key output: XCO 2 precision & temporal (L2) requirements for MRD Method: assess detection thresholds and fraction within each country of fossil fuel CO 2 emissions, from power plants and cities, that would be detected by the space borne system Credits: IUP Credits: LSCE ESA UNCLASSIFIED - For Official Use Y.J. Meijer 08/06/2017 Slide 9

10 ESA study (3/5): SMARTCARB SMARTCARB: Satellite Measurements of Auxiliary Reactive Trace gases for fossil fuel CARBon dioxide emission estimation Key output: possibly NO 2 and/or CO (L2) requirements for MRD Method: exploit COSMO model with GPU implementation for GHG simulations to assess the added value of NO2 and CO observations to estimate and attribute anthropogenic CO 2 emissions. CO 2 CO NO x Credits: EMPA Credits: LSCE ESA UNCLASSIFIED - For Official Use Y.J. Meijer 08/06/2017 Slide 10

11 ESA study (4/5): AEROCARB Study on use of aerosol information for estimating fossil fuel CO 2 emissions Key output: possibly aerosol observational requirements for MRD Method: WRF-CHEM model for aerosol and CO 2 simulations, and sub-sequent CO 2 flux inversion Credits: SRON ESA UNCLASSIFIED - For Official Use Y.J. Meijer 08/06/2017 Slide 11

12 ESA study (5/5): Spectral Sizing Study Study on assessing relative product accuracies for different spectral sizing Key output: observational requirements (spectral sizing) for MRD Method: use ensemble approach to assess the expected relative CO 2 product accuracies for different instrument spectral sizing points (spectral bandwidth, spectral resolution and SNR) assuming realistic retrieval and instrumental errors Credits: SRON Credits: B. Sierk Credits: DLR ESA UNCLASSIFIED - For Official Use Y.J. Meijer 08/06/2017 Slide 12

13 ACADIA Airborne CArbon Dioxide Imager for Atmosphere Objectives: Demonstration and test the concept of the planned CO 2 monitoring satellite mission Contribution to the validation of this and other space-based GHG missions Campaigns to support scientific exploitation of space-based system (CO 2 mission, GOSAT-2, OCO-2, MicroCarb, ) Credits: M.Buchwitz/IUP Bremen Spectral Characteristics: Geometric Characteristics: Spectral Band ID Spectral Range [nm] Spectral Resolution [nm] Spectral Sampling Ratio NIR SWIR SWIR Height [km] Instrument FoV [km] Spatial Sampling [m] (2) (8) 200 Credits: C.Bottea/EEA ESA UNCLASSIFIED - For Official Use Y.J. Meijer 08/06/2017 Slide 13

14 CO 2 Monitoring Observation Requirements Primary Requirements (preliminary): XCO 2 precision: ppm Systematic bias < 0.5ppm Spatial resolution ~4 km 2 Continuously sampled swath with minimum swath width of 200km Revisit of ~3 days (poleward of 40 deg), over land & ocean (by a constellation of N satellites) Orbit equator crossing time 11:00 12:00hrs à to detect city emission peak, and to maximise coverage at high latitudes in all seasons Band Spectral range [nm] Spectral resolution [nm] SNR at reference radiance * Radiometric accuracy better than 3% * Relative radiometric accuracy < 0.5% NIR SWIR SWIR Separation of anthropogenic from biogenic fluxes mandatory (possibly additional NO 2 and/or CO observations needed) Scattering induced errors may require specific aerosol/cloud observation capability (multi-angle polarimeter) ESA UNCLASSIFIED - For Official Use Y.J. Meijer 08/06/2017 Slide 14

15 Next steps toward first satellite mission High level roadmap à Draft MRD in Q Feedback from studies Consolidated MRD Q Start system studies Q Start implementation Q First mission in orbit by 2025 Task B Report 1 Task B Final Reports C-MIN 2019 Start Mar Jul Sep Dec Initial iterations Space mission objectives MRD ESA UNCLASSIFIED - For Official Use Y.J. Meijer 08/06/2017 Slide 15