How user feedback and requirements drive service evolution?

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1 How user feedback and requirements drive service evolution? T. Popp, F. Schnell, J. Meyer-Arnek / DLR L. Tarrason / NILU E. Wey, M. Marchand, C. Thomas / TSV A. Stidworthy / CERC on behalf of CAMS-94, ECMWF and CAMS contractors

2 User involvement in defining CAMS > 10 years experience (GEMS, PROMOTE, MACC/-II/-III) Forum 2008 Forum 2011 Strategy S-E impact Experts Users

Full, free & open data policy Reliability, timeliness: operational

3 What users of precursor services had said Products and services need to be sustainable Quality of products is Copernicus distinctive advantage Full, free & open data policy Reliability, timeliness: operational aspects Easy data discovery, access, visualisation User support and training

4 10 Y ears of User Requirements Evolution Implementation group report, before start of MACC Overall, general functionalities MACC & MACC-II Documentation, quality information, format, quicklooks/graphics Timeliness, resolution, coverage, forecast range License conditions, access manual, ftp access MACC-II & MACC-III Operational (interface capacity, status information, consistency, web services) Uncertainties, quality flags, validation reports CAMS Systematic analysis to drive service evolution priorities

5 CAMS user i nteraction activity Personal contact Helpdesk User Workshops User Requirements Database User Requirements Analysis Service Evolution

Schnell, Julian Meyer- Arnek, Thomas Popp

6 CAMS- 94 User Interaction specific team CAMS user interaction team: Leonor Tarrason, Etienne Wey, Mathilde Marchand, Claire Thomas, Amy Stidworthy, Franziska Schnell, Julian Meyer- Arnek, Thomas Popp in close interaction with ECWMF and CAMS contractors

7 Systematic analysis of user requirements Store requirements in a database Assess feasibility with CAMS service provider Effort classes minor (few days), small (1 month), medium (few months), large (full study ~1 year), very large (full research project ~several years) Impact classes high + wide (large number of users), high + specific (high power user), medium (several users), little (single occasional user) Potential implementation CAMS evolution, H2020 project, Sentinel requirement Trace analysis and implementation status -> influence service evolution strategy

8 CAMS user requirements in the database 160 requirements from MACC, MACC-II, MACC-III Defining service Initial user interaction loops during service demonstration 68 URs Collected since June 2016 from: CAMS assembly 2016 User Workshops (Offenbach Nov 2016, Riga Oct 2016) Policy User Workshop (Brussels Nov 2016) Interaction with CAMS contractors Copernicus User Support JIRA Service Desk

9 Requirements analysis / a selection Description Deviation Sentinel Requirement Classification Global products Aerosol products shall include single scattering albedo. add new aerosol parameter The data about atmospheric extend vertical coverage compositions shall be expanded more into the stratosphere and mesosphere. Global re-analysis consistent reanalysis extended back into time (model only without satellite assimilation) 20+ years high resolution reanalysis met data including rain and daylighting and broadband solar irradiation could be used for building modelling length of record needs general met data from ECMWF available reanalysis in addition to solar data A longer history of MACC data shall be time series too short provided (e.g. 20 years) for solar industry users. AOD data shall be reanalysed for time series starts too late comment to classification Action Potential Impact if implemented currently under investigation is currently in considereation; needs decisions on timing can not include data assimiaotion of satellite chemical observationbs, which are not available for earlier periods Already in URDB similar requirement for length of aerosol re-analysis > 20 years Consider for medium impact service evolution (several users strategy making a similar request) Consider for medium impact service evolution (several users strategy making a similar request) Consider for little impact service evolution (requested only strategy by single occasional user) Consider for medium impact service evolution (several users strategy making a similar request) Consider for medium impact service evolution (several users strategy making a similar request) Consider for medium impact service evolution (several users strategy making a similar request) Estimated Class of Effort needed medium (few months of implementation / testing work) large (full study ~1 year of work needed to test solutions) large (full study ~1 year of work needed to test solutions) medium (few months of implementation / testing work) medium (few months of implementation / testing work) medium (few months of implementation / testing work) comment Status MACC III: Aerosol species are being served as well as PM and AOD Status MACC III: Means extension of, which needs discussion of priorities for resource allocation evaluation of quality would need dedicated study This is typically a combination of historical solar and met data needed for creating TMY for diverse needs (building, solar power plants, biology, etc...) Status MACC III: Needs allocation of resources Status MACC III: Needs allocation of resources

10 Requirements analysis Description Deviation Sentinel Requirement Classification European re-analysis Need the hourly re-analysis data product for more years. Currently 2014 and 2015 are available; also need 2013 and 2012 if possible. all-europe multi-annual air quality reanalysis for epidemiology European ensemble several years of forecast data to calculate model output statistics provide European ensemble for urban background / at higher resolution Data for 2014 and 2015 are already available; 2013 and 2012 are also required. extend llength of time series (current back to 2013) to 2000 historic archive higher spatial resoltuion to include urban background Scenarios, assessments European assessments for one year next decade emission scenarios are with emission scenarios for implemented in gren scenario product, but this simulates only the next 3 days; use emission scenarios for next decade for annual assessments comment to classification Action Potential Impact if implemented request by Imperial college / EU ELAPSE project for epidemiology community can be combined with data used for European assessment reports would require substantial extension of and sufficient funding for operations - needs European agreement to be implemented, otherwise out of would require extension of Needs further discussion Medium impact (requested repeatedly Consider for high + specific service evolution impact (high strategy power organisation as originator) Consider for high + specific service evolution impact (high strategy power organisation as originator) Needs further discussion high + wide impact (large number of users making a similar request)> Consider for high + specific service evolution impact (high strategy power organisation as originator) Estimated Class of Effort needed medium (few months of implementation / testing work) large (full study ~1 year of work needed to test solutions) small (small adjustment below 1 month of work) medium (few months of implementation / testing work) large (full study ~1 year of work needed to test solutions) comment requires additional resource for processing 13 annual datasets alternative: CAMS could provide tools for statistical downscaling or handbook for those EEA and national environment agencies are interested

11 Requirements analysis Description Deviation Sentinel Requirement Classification radiation Research users have frequently asked for solar radiation maps Radiation products shall be available in NRT in addition to archive access N/A as new product CAMS McClear radiation product is limited to current day D-2 as it is using old forecasts for the aerosols and water vapor and O3 D-2 data; the needed data already exists but needs to be made available by ECMWF Users are asking for solar forecasts This would need to have access to the C-IFS solar radiation components forecasts Dry and wet deposition of dust aerosols are needed to monitor soiling of solar plants In addition to the historical data for dust requested elsewhere, this demands access to the dust forecasts from the C-IFS product comment to classification Action Potential Impact if implemented Needs to be further assessed; maybe fulfilled with the future CDS implementatio n in service, interface or website medium impact (several users making a similar request) Temporary: high + wide Iteration with impact (large Service number of Provider / users making a ECMWF started similar request)> Needs further discussion Temporary: Iteration with Service Provider / ECMWF started high + wide impact (large number of users making a similar request)> medium impact (several users Estimated Class of Effort needed medium (few months of implementation / testing work) small (small adjustment below 1 month of work) large (full study ~1 year of work needed to test solutions) medium (few months of making a similar implementation request) / testing work) comment A first map of McClear and CAMS radiation GHI (16,000 points) at 0.2 resolution and for every 15 min MSG The current CAMS McClear clrear sky radiation is available only at current day D- 2, This topic is very important for the economy of the solar plants in the arid and dusty areas

12 Requirements analysis Description Deviation Sentinel Requirement Classification communication provide systematic information on new products and services a roadmap of planned changes / evolution of data access interfaces would help user planning their efforts to learn current interfaces Data access Metadata shall be provided in the netcdf-files. extend / add to operational info / system changes on the website (currently only history) also future planned schedule (currently some vague information is there)there) Some information is given in the metadata in each data file, but the request is for more information to be given requirement in requirement in Already in URDB comment to classification Action Potential Impact if implemented To be assessed in CAMS Consider for service evolution strategy implementati on in service, interface or website Needs further discussion little impact (requested only by single occasional user) medium impact (several users making a similar request) medium impact (several users making a similar request) Estimated Class comment of Effort needed small (small adjustment below 1 month of work) small (small adjustment below 1 month of work) None maintenance needs some continuous effort needs regular updating of documentation on planned / scheduled system changes on the website these are different products

13 I nnovation potential Description Deviation Sentinel Requirement Classification Lightning effects on ozone need to be estimated. A proper analysis of uncertainty contributions shall be provided. studies shall be conducted to understand the reasons for differences between forecasting models / uncertainties of the ensemble forecasts global (and regional) AQ forecasts shall be improved to predict extremely high pollution levels conduct sensitivity studies to identify contributions to uncertainties better understand reasons for differences between models improved modeling capability for high pollution Out of for CAMS Out of for CAMS Out of for CAMS Out of for CAMS comment to classification Action Potential Impact if implemented needs specific reasearch tasks to develop a product requires large research studies for different products needs dedicated research project Consider for external research (H2020 et al.) Consider for external research (H2020 et al.) Consider for external research (H2020 et al.) Consider for external research (H2020 et al.) medium impact (several users making a similar request) medium impact (several users making a similar request) medium impact (several users making a similar request) Estimated Class of Effort needed very large (full research project needed ~several years of work) very large (full research project needed ~several years of work) very large (full research project needed ~several years of work) comment Status MACC III: Needs further investigation Status MACC III: Under investigation; Very challenging

14 User feedback impact on service evolution Continuous service improvements for downstream services Increased resolution of global, fire datasets Increased area and forecast length of the regional ensemble Increased ensemble output: species, vertical layers Dedicated regional + policy support website Continuous improvements of documentation and data access Online, extended, operational information inter-operable web services Service desk / knwoledgebase products in CAMS Seamless transition between MACC-III and operational phase (CAMS) Interim assessment reports to meet reporting obligation schedules Explore deposition product capabilities for soiling

15 Requirementswith high potential impact Description Keywords Origin Workshop/Presentation Several years of forecast data to calculate model output statistics air quality forecasts, model output statistics Person jira CUS-1322 Provide European ensemble for urban background / at higher resolution European ensemble urban scale several user workshops Offenbach, Brussels European assessments for one year with emission scenarios for European assessments scenarios for Person solar forecasts irradiation, forecast other CAMS user workshop Offenbach 22/11/2016 Several requests from users to Transvalor and DLR in the of the day to day business (meetings, phone, e- mail) All-Europe multi-annual air quality reanalysis for epidemiology multi-annual, air quality, reanalysis Person EU ELAPSE project

16 Targeted services MACC all air quality emissions and surface fluxes global atmospheric composition solar radiation ozone layer / UV

17 Targeted services CAMS all air quality emissions and surface fluxes global atmospheric composition solar radiation

18 Requirement Classification MACC Already fulfilled Already in URDB Out of for CAMS

19 Requirement Classification CAMS Already fulfilled Already in URDB Out of for CAMS

20 Potential impact if implemented MACC high + specific impact (high power organisation as originator) high + wide impact (large number of users making a similar request)> medium impact (several users making a similar request) little impact (requested only by single occasional user) None

21 Potential impact if implemented CAMS high + specific impact (high power organisation as originator) high + wide impact (large number of users making a similar request)> medium impact (several users making a similar request) little impact (requested only by single occasional user) None

22 User workshops Co-organized with national user community Focus on their specific needs Stimulate exchange between users 2 dedicated per annum, 1 at annual assembly 2016 user workshops:ffenba Riga (18 October), Och (22 November) Athens (assembly user day 15 June), Brussels (DG-ENV, 28 November, policy focus) 2017 user workshops Warsaw (17 May, Polish community) Utrecht (13 June, Dutch and Belgian communities) Madrid (TBD in autumn, industries focus) XXX (TBD in autumn, with EEA + EIONET, policy focus)

23 Conclusion You are most welcome to contact us with your needs and feedback ECMWF staff CAMS helpdesk CAMS-94 and partners) your CAMS contractor at user workshops / user days Utrecht, 13 June 2017 Madrid, autumn 2017 Kopenhagen (policy), autumn 2017 TODAY

CAMS Regional Air Quality. User Guide. Data Server : Fundamentals on production & services

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