Lauren Hastings, Matt Nobriga and Carl Wilcox

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1 Conceptual Models, Monitoring, Assessment and Performance Measures in Support of Adaptive Management in the California Bay Delta System Lauren Hastings, Matt Nobriga and Carl Wilcox CALFED Science Program and California Department of Fish and Game July 22, 2009 NCER 2009, Los Angeles, CA

2 San Francisco Bay Bay/Sacramento /SacramentoSan Joaquin Delta

3 So What Is Adaptive Management Anyway? Colloquial: Learning by doing Formal: An approach to designing and implementing resource management policy that takes account of uncertainty and maximizes the opportunity to learn from management actions Practical: Using science tools to improve decisions made through the Management Decision Cycle

4 Hard! So What Is Adaptive Management Anyway?

5 Adaptive Management Model Define Problem Establish Ecosystem Goals, Objectives Redefine Problem Set New Goals Refine Models Specify Conceptual Models Simulate Policy Outcomes Evaluate Adapt DECIDE Continue Policy Implement Policy Targeted Research Pilot Projects Full Scale Implementation Assess Report Monitoring

6 Adaptive Management Model Define Problem Establish Ecosystem Goals, Objectives Redefine Problem Set New Goals Refine Models Specify Conceptual Models Simulate Policy Outcomes Evaluate Adapt DECIDE Continue Policy Implement Policy Targeted Research Pilot Projects Full Scale Implementation Assess Report Monitoring

7 Science Knowledge Base

8 Current Delta Conceptual Models Processes Habitats Species Transport Tidal Marsh Delta Smelt Longfin Smelt Aquatic Food Web Sediment Fish Habitat Linkage Riparian Aquatic Vegetation Salmonids Sturgeon Splittail Steelhead Organic Carbon Floodplains Temperature Boundary Conditions Stressors Low DO Invasive Clams Warm Water Centrarcids Toxicity Selenium Mercury Pyrethroids

9 1B) Physical Environment Feedback Sub Model to SAV Local Flow Conditions (velocity, residence time) Salinity Substrate stability Higher velocity, larger bed grain size ph DIC Nutrients SAV Establishment and Growth Dispersal Turbidity Shallow depths, Gentle slopes Light SAV Patch / DO Temp Importance Understanding Predictability High Medium Low

Splittail model indicates high importance pathways from floodplain inundation to production of eggs and juveniles Reduced Food Production in Estuary GROWTH and MATURATION 29 years Artificially

tidal or riverine flows like Sacramento River Toxic Effects Mercury, Selenium, Endocrine Disrupters, Pyrethroids Shallow Edges of Delta JUVENILE Artificially Heightened Predation Rates, Entrainment

10 Splittail model indicates high importance pathways from floodplain inundation to production of eggs and juveniles Reduced Food Production in Estuary GROWTH and MATURATION 29 years Artificially Heightened Predation Rates JUVENILE Invasive Species Harvest GROWTH 1 2 years in brackish sloughs Delta and Suisun Marsh ADULT 29 yrs Brackish tidal slough in Suisun Marsh, Freshwater areas with tidal or riverine flows like Sacramento River Toxic Effects Mercury, Selenium, Endocrine Disrupters, Pyrethroids Shallow Edges of Delta JUVENILE Artificially Heightened Predation Rates, Entrainment Two Life History Options by Water Year Type SPAWNING MIGRATION NOV MAR Dry Year Riverine Edge Habitat Important for MVP Flood Plains i.e. Yolo Bypass Wet Year Flood Plain Inundation DURATION AND QUALITY 2130 days Low toxic levels Phytoplankton / Zooplankton Bloom FEB MAY EGGS LARVAE Floodplain Channel Connectivity Floodplain Channel Connectivity / Stranding DRAFT Sacramento splittail Pogonichthys macrolepidotus

11 Adaptive Management Model Define Problem Redefine Problem Set New Goals Refine Models Establish Ecosystem Goals, Objectives Specify Conceptual Models Scientific Evaluation Simulate Policy Outcomes Evaluate Adapt DECIDE Continue Policy Implement Policy Targeted Research Pilot Projects Full Scale Implementation Assess Report Monitoring

12 Worth (from Positive Outcomes) Certainty (understanding predictability) Low Low Med Med Magnitude 2 Low Med Med High 3 Med Med High High 4 Med High High High

13 Risk (from Negative Outcomes) Certainty (understanding predictability) Med Med Low Low Magnitude 2 High Med Med Low 3 High High Med Med 4 High High High Med

14 Full Evaluation, Step 11: Assign AM Category Worth Low Medium High Risk Risk Risk M M H L H L H M L Reversibility Reversibility Reversibility Opp. to Learn H Targeted Research L N Y Level of Understanding L Opp. to Learn H Pilot Project Opp. to Learn H Targeted Research L N Opp. to Learn L H Y Level of Understanding Full Pilot Project Opp. to Learn H Targeted Research L Y Level of Understanding N Full Pilot Project L H L H L H Alternate Approach? Discard Alternate Approach? Discard Alternate Approach? Discard N N N N N N Y Can Research Uncert? Y Can Research Uncert? Y Can Research Uncert? Y Y Y Rewrite and Reroute Targeted Research Rewrite and Reroute Targeted Research Rewrite and Reroute Targeted Research

15 Striped Bass Life Cycle Model (& new extension to longfin smelt) Frank Loge et al, UCD

16 CALFED Performance Measures Framework Three levels of indicators: 1. Administrative 2. Drivers 3. Outcomes

17 Outcomebased Approach Identify Strategic Goals and Objectives Performance Goals and Targets Select a core set of outcome indicators related to program goals & objectives. Identify conceptual models, drivers and inventory data and scientific information available. Select Outcome indicators Describe Conceptual Models Monitoring data Locate Identify Driver indicators

18 Adaptive Management Model Define Problem Establish Ecosystem Goals, Objectives Redefine Problem Set New Goals Refine Models Specify Conceptual Models Simulate Policy Outcomes Evaluate Adapt DECIDE Continue Policy Implement Policy Targeted Research Pilot Projects Full Scale Implementation Assess Report Monitoring

19 Interagency Ecological Program Longterm BayDelta monitoring program 9 member agencies

20 Pelagic Organism Decline Delta smelt Threadfin shad Longfin smelt 8000 Striped bass

21 Moving Forward Overall BayDelta monitoring framework & pilot score card assessment Regulatory recognition of adaptive management A proposed adaptive management experiment can it be true??? Governance are polymaths the hope for the future??

22 Proposed Delta Landscapes Provide Ample Opportunity For Active Experiments Delta Restoration As a Whole, However, Must Be a Passive Experiment

24 The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again. Adaptive Management Framework 1. Define Problem 2. Define Goals & Objectives 14. Reassess Problem 13. Revise Objectives 11. Refine Knowledge Base, Models 3. Apply Models 4. Define Desired Program Outcomes & Performance Metrics 10. Assimilate 5. Select & Evaluate 10. Assimilate & Recommend & Recommend 12. Refine Actions Conservation Measures: Research, Pilot, Fullscale 9. Analyze, Synthesize, & Evaluate 6. Design & Implement Conservation Measures 7. Design & Implement Monitoring 8. Collect & Manage Data Knowledge Base

CALFED Ecosystem Restoration Program (ERP)

CALFED Ecosystem Restoration Program (ERP) The goal of the Ecosystem Restoration Program is to improve and increase aquatic and terrestrial habitats and improve ecological functions in the Bay-Delta to