2017 Central Valley Flood Protection Plan Update: Overview
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1 2017 Central Valley Flood Protection Plan Update: Overview 2015 FMA Conference CVFPP Overview- Mike Mierzwa, DWR Basin-wide Feasibility Study Planning Context- Eric Tsai, DWR Technical Tools/Methodologies- Rummy Sandhu & David Arrate, DWR Climate Change Considerations- Amy Bindra, DWR Ecosystem Benefits Analysis- Mary Jimenez, DWR Assessing Value of Other Economic Benefits- Steve Hatchett, CH2M Hill Next Steps and Key Messages- Mary Jimenez, DWR 1
2 2012 Central Valley Flood Protection Plan 2
3 Outcome Based Planning CVFPP Goals Primary Goal: Improve flood risk management Reduce the chance of flooding Reduce damages once flooding occurs Improve public safety, preparedness, and emergency response Supporting Goals Improve Operations and Maintenance Promote Ecosystem Functions Promote Multi-benefit Projects Improve Institutional Support Intended Outcomes 3
4 One Process, Many Activities GOAL: Supporting comprehensive investments to better manage flood waters 4
5 Basin-Wide Feasibility Studies Planning Context 1
6 2012 CVFPP State Systemwide Investment Approach 3
7 Basin-wide Feasibility Study Purpose & Scope Refine scale/location of flood system elements; integrate environmental conservation Evaluate systemwide hydraulic effects, and ecosystem restoration opportunities Inform 2017 CVFPP update 2
8 Basin-wide Feasibility Study Goals Primary Goal Improve Flood Risk Management Supporting Goals Promote Ecosystem Functions Improve Operations and Maintenance Promote Multi- Benefit Projects Balanced Reasonable Cost-efficient 9
9 Yolo Bypass Options 4
10 Basin-Wide Technical Analysis Tools & Methodology
11 Technical Analysis: Tools & Methodology Reservoir Flow (HEC-ResSim) Local Flow (HEC- HMS) Riverine Hydraulics (HEC-RAS) Geotechnical Evaluation (ULE/NULE) Flood Hydrology Analysis (CVHS) Delta Hydraulics (RMA2) Economic & Life Risk Analysis (HEC-FDA) Historical Data (CDEC/ USGS) Climate Change (VIC) Floodplain Hydraulics (FLO2D) Cost Estimates Ecosystem Water Quality Commercial Fisheries Water Supply Regional Economics Recreation Open/Space Navigation Loss of Services
12 Flood Risk Analysis of Key Locations Regulated Flow Impact Area Index Point Channel Stage Regulated Stage
13 System-wide Tools Applications CVHS HEC-ResSim CVFED HEC-RAS CVFED HEC-RAS RMA2 HEC-HMS/ Bulletin 17B (CVHS) ULE/NULE Updated Structure Inventory, Multiple flooding sources 7 6 CVFED FLO-2D HEC-RAS HEC-FDA 13
14 Sacramento BWFS: What We ve Learned Our flood system needs to be modernized to meet today s needs and be resilient to future changes. Sacramento and Fremont Weir expansions can provide significant cross-regional stage reduction. Yolo Bypass setbacks provide varying levels of flood and ecosystem benefits. Sacramento Weir and Bypass Expansions Fremont Weir Expansions
15 San Joaquin BWFS: Stage Frequency in the Delta Tidal Influenced Elements Affected Paradise Cut RD17 Stockton/Delta Front RMA2 Bay-Delta Model Dynamic Tide Stage Boundaries Total Latitude Flow Frequency
16 San Joaquin BWFS: Example Multi-Objective Element Firebaugh Small Community Improvements Flood Risk Improvement Ecosystem Benefits Hydraulic Impacts
17 Climate Change Considerations 17
18 Hydrologic Variability Considerations 18
19 How Temperature Increases Influence Storm Runoff Volumes Existing Rain / Snow Trends Future Rain / Snow Trends 19
20 How Sea Level Rise Influences System Outflow Estimates of Future Sea Level Rise in California Low Mean High cm 14.4 cm 29.7 cm cm 28.0 cm 60.8 cm 2062* 18.5 cm (0.61 ft.) 38.8 cm (1.27 ft.) 83.1 cm (2.73 ft.) cm 91.9 cm cm (Source: NRC, 2012) 20
21 Climate Change Impacts Contributes to rise in extreme weather events Expected to generate more extreme floods, more seasonal rain, less snow and rising sea levels Increases stress on the system 21
22 Climate Change Approach for 2017 CVFPP Multi-phased approach Phase 1 included in 2012 plan Phase 2a 2007 global climate models, 112 independent climate projections Phase 2b More robust analysis and integration; 2013 global climate models, 200 independent climate projections Uses latest science and data Integrates existing hydrologic and flood risk approaches Consistent with State s climate change policies 22
23 Increasing Temperature and Precipitation Extremes 23
24 How Temperature Increases Influence Storm Runoff Volumes Existing Rain / Snow Trends Future Rain / Snow Trends 24
25 CVFPP Climate Change Approach Linking atmospheric processes, precipitation and temperature fields, and watershed conditions to inform changes in flood risk Atmospheric River 45ºN Atmospheric River Stream flow 35ºN 25ºN 140ºE 170ºE 160ºW 130ºW 100ºW Precipitation Watershed Historical Projected Temperature Adjusted Unregulated Flow Frequency Curves Projected General Circulation Model Risk Analysis and Flood Management Planning Historical
26 Ecosystem Benefits Analysis for Multi-Objective Flood Planning 26
27 Today s Discussion Ecosystem Integration into the Central Valley Flood Protection Plan - Overview of the CVFPP Draft Conservation Strategy - Development of Multi-Benefit Opportunities BWFS Ecosystem Benefits Analyses - Overview of Purpose and Approach 27
28 Ecosystem Integration into the CVFPP CVFPP Draft Conservation Strategy 28
29 Multi-Benefit Project Development The Draft Conservation Strategy guided development of ecosystem restoration concepts for flood system elements currently under consideration 29
30 Fremont Weir Upper Yolo Bypass Ecosystem Integration Concept Elkhorn Basin
31 Conservation Strategy guided development of restoration concepts Multiple restoration concepts developed to show range of options Ongoing collaboration with stakeholders
32 Opportunities to expand riparian and shaded riverine aquatic (SRA) habitat Would provide benefits to target fish and bird species
33 Opportunities to work with local interests to expand floodplain inundation Would be in coordination with agricultural practices Would provide local and downstream benefits to target fish species
34 Opportunities to reduce existing fish passage barriers and expand fish passage in and out of the bypass Would provide benefits to adult and juvenile fish species
35 Ecosystem Benefits Analyses 35
36 Purpose of Ecosystem Benefits Analyses Informs decision making and understanding of tradeoffs Informs subsequent project implementation Quantifies ecosystem values in a way that helps track progress in meeting Conservation Strategy goals Informs discussions with resource agencies on permitting for projects and long-term O&M Develops tools that allow consistent evaluation of projects in regional context and meet USACE requirements 36
37 Ecosystem Benefits Approach Based on a modified USACE Habitat Equivalency Analysis (HEA) methodology Uses the ecosystem features identified in the restoration concepts as the basis for the benefits analyses - as compared to existing conditions Coordinated models were developed: An Ecosystem Model that addresses habitat structure and function Species Models that address target species and habitat connectivity 37
38 Ecosystem Benefits Example Results Net Benefits for Habitats Benefits for Species (Ex: Swainson s Hawk) Existing Configuration 1 Configuration 2 Configuration 3 Configuration 3 2 Value Weighted Acres Configuration 4 1 Channel Bank Riparian Marsh-Other Wetland ,000 1,500 2,000 Fully Functional Acre Equivalents 0 Concept 1 Concept 2 Concept 3 Concept 4 Concept 5 Concept 6 System Element 38
39 Assessing Value of Other Economic Benefits of the CVFPP 39
40 CVFPP Seeks to Provide a Range of Benefits Water supply and water quality Flood risk management Hydropower Ecosystem restoration Recreation and open space Navigation Commercial fisheries Social and regional economic effects 40
41 Open space Enhances Property Value Hedonic demand approach Existing study of protected wildlife areas near cities Evaluated the effect of open space proximity to property value Adjusted for other property features California property value 3-6% higher if near protected wildlife area (all else equal) 41
42 Loss of Transportation Service Linked California Statewide Travel Demand Model (CSTDM) network to road centerline geolocations. Overlaid flood inundation areas and depths on road network Assessed road operations and closures Used CSTDM to estimate traffic volumes, routes, travel times Estimated costs of travel delays, rerouting 42
43 CSTDM Road Network- Central Valley Portion 43
44 Linked Analysis Will Provide New Way of Assessing Transportation Service Benefits 44
45 Where We re Going Next Steps and Key Messages 45
46 Basin-wide Feasibility Study Next Steps Evaluation and comparison of BWFS options Continued stakeholder engagement Formulation of State-Preferred Plan Draft BWFS by End of 2015 Further coordination/refinement through 2017 CVFPP 14
47 CVFPP Next Steps Outcome-Based Planning for 2017 CVFPP Update Continued collaboration with stakeholders and parallel planning efforts (e.g., RFMP Phase 2) Evaluation of flood O&M requirements for existing and future flood system and ecosystem features Documentation of monitoring/tracking value of investments 47
48 Key Messages DWR is using the latest tools, models and methodologies to evaluate and compare various planning options Multiple planning efforts at different scales are being conducted to support the 2017 CVFPP DWR is conducting systemwide, multiobjective planning studies in two river basins to achieve resiliency and a wide range of public values 48
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