Renewable Energy and Marine Spatial Planning: Scientific and Legal Implications

Transcription

1 The Regulation of Continental Shelf Development Rethinking international standards, Halifax, Canada, June 2012 Renewable Energy and Marine Spatial Planning: Scientific and Legal Implications Andreas Kannen & Hartwig Kremer Halifax,

2 The Regulation of Continental Shelf Development Rethinking international standards, Halifax, Canada, June 2012 Renewable Energy and Marine Spatial Planning: Scientific and Legal Implications Coasts and Shelves Earth s major live support system Global imperatives and change Shelves as opportunities for adaptation (contested views and priorities) Offshore wind and Marine Spatial Planning Challenges for transdisciplinary research Conclusions

3 qualitative Target Descriptions Population Consumption Trade Rivercatchment Material fluxes Climate Sea level rise Tectonic Schelf quantitative biogeochemial fluxes, Eco-functions Politics & Institutional Reaction Sozioeconomic Implications changed Geomorphology River-Coast-Shelf Watercontinuum biogeochemical Cycles, Productivity & Biodiversity, 90% Fishery, Ecosyst. services: ~$17.5 trillion, (Global ES ~$33.3 trillion)

4 Response to global imperatives: EU targets and outlook The EU climate and energy package has three main goals for 2020: Reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 20 %; improving energy efficiency by 20%; and generating 20 % of energy consumption from renewable energy Offshore wind energy capacity is projected to increase 17-fold 2010 and 2020, while wave/tidal power will increase over 11-fold

5 Response to global imperatives: EU targets and outlook Technology Installed capacity 2010 (NREAP projections (GW) Aggregated projection for 2020 (GW) % change Onshore wind Offshore wind Tidal, wave and ocean energy Hydroelectric (excl. pumped storage) Solar photovoltaic Geothermal Concentrated solar power Biomass electr

6 Installed capacity of offshore wind farms in Northern Europe to 2030, OffshoreGrid scenarios (2011)

7 In other words our traditional image of the oceans will see new developments to get used to Nature Port Which picture do you see if you talk about the ocean and the coast? Dyke Beach with tourists Fishing Boats Birds

8 Perceptions and potential spatial configurations What do you see? Less CO 2? Nature destruction? Bright Future? Spoilt view? Less Tourists? Colliding ships? Killed Birds? Money? Jobs? Siemens Pressebild

9 And what do you feel? Just awful! A miracle of technology Disaster! The end of the world! Great! A future for my kids Not nice, but necessary Nice! Siemens Pressebild

10 The driver for MSP in Germany Offshore Wind Energy as a renewable energy source is a national and regional strategy Renewed EEG Starting Phase 500 MW Expansion Offshore: 3000MW Continuing Expansion Offshore: MW National German targets as an example

11 National and transnational MSP implications

12 Transformation of shelves - dynamics of change Government Scenario 2030 (Coastal Futures) Situation without offshore wind farms Planned and (Source: BSH) approved offshore wind farms in spring 2010 (Source: BSH) Geplanter Ausbau bis 2030 nach Vorgaben der Bundesregierung Gesamtleistung MW (Quelle: Burkhard 2008)

13 Spatial Plans for sea areas The tradional spatial (land) planning solution: Zoning Spatial Plan for the German North Sea EEZ (Source: BSH, Federal Hydrographic and Maritime Agency)

14 Policies and scales Non-EU context UNCLOS (EEZ, SeeAnl.Verordnung BSH) Environmental Conventions and Agreements (e.g. CBD) IMO Regulations Regional Seas Conventions (OSPAR, HELCOM, Barcelona, etc.) EU context EU Integrated Maritime Policy (Blue Book) Maritime Strategy Framework Directive Common Fisheries & Agricultural Policies Other environmental directives (Birds and Flora-Fauna Habitat = Natura 2000 areas, Water Framework Directive, ) Sectoral strategies and policies (Climate Change, Energy, Environment*, Cohesion, ) *EAP 7 to start in 2014 and to map onto EU 2020

15 Policies and scales National context Licensing procedures for activities in EEZ (national - SeeAnl.VO)) and territorial waters (Federal States/Laender - Federal Immission Control Act) Spatial Planning (terrestrial and in the sea), in EEZ (national BSH), in territorial waters and on land = Federal States/Laender Nature Conservation in EEZ (national), in territorial waters and on land = (Federal States/Laender) Sectoral policies for sand/gravel extraction, ports/shipping, local fisheries, environment, regional development, renewable energies at different administrative levels

16 MSP enables to look at Coasts and Sea as Social-Ecological Systems Environmental policy & laws Marine Resource Use Use Marine Area Area Use Use Energy- /Climate/Resource usage policy & laws Ecological system Integrity Risk Societal system Norms & Values Social welfare Economic welfare functions structures Provision of Ecosystem Goods & Services Source: Kannen & Burkhard 2009

17 MSP challenged to bridge competing knowledge and use claims; passing trad. boundaries Leadership, Politics and Policies How to agree on priorities and decisions? Planning Source: WWF 2010

18 Elements of power within MSP processes (dynamic actors analysis) Information power Distribution of Power in a negotiation situation Financial power Communication and negotiation power Legal security Investor WWF Coastal/Marine Interest-groups Planning-group and Science Administration/ Public Authority Social relations Expertise power Adapted from: Busch 2009

19 This doesn t happen in isolation - Scales Global, European, national, regional and local context global political commitments Planning and Management need to be performed across scales Globalisation global Climate Change regional integration and cohesion Map drafted by: Burkhard 2005

20 Upscaling the MSP Process: National Transnational Processes Graphics: Gee, Kannen 2011

21 Building the European offshore grid; a call for transnational MSP The Queen s Speech (9 May): My government will propose reform of the electricity market to deliver secure, clean and affordable electricity and ensure prices are fair - the UK Energy Bill unlikely to be developed completely outside the EU context Benefits ( et_reform_bill_2356) Predictable energy output / energy security Building a single EU electricity market benefits consumers Connections to more than one country Power trading between countries Viable alternative to onshore grid construction Connection to other marine renewable energy sources More economical utilisation of grid through shared use

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23 A coherent pan-european energy policy Spatial planning implications: A pan-european energy infrastructure (SuperGrid) to be put into place. Land- and sea-based grids well integrated. Cable connections and oil / gas pipelines are bundled in corridors. Enough space has been set aside to achieve the renewable energy aims. Co-uses promoted - but locations outside risk areas & sensitive areas. Source: EWEA 2009

24 Implementing transnational MSP Spatial Subsidiarity + appropriate structures and processes Vision as informing tool for national MSP activities and sectoral policies (e.g. BaltSeaPlan 2030); MSP understood as a cooperative practice; agreed principles and topics support cooperation; Transnational approach to transnational issues; Spatial challenges dealt with at lowest most appropriate spatial level; Involves several spatial & administrative levels; Formal and informal bodies are in place;

25 Implications for research

26 Underlying the new Five Grand Challenges of Future Earth system and Sustainability science Improve forecasts of future environmental conditions and consequences for people Encourage innovation (incl. sound evaluation) in technological, policy, and social responses to achieve global sustainability Develop integrate the observation... to respond to global/regional environmental change Determine institutional, economic and behavioral changes to enable effective steps toward (global) sustainability Determine how to anticipate, avoid and manage disruptive global environmental change

27 Underlying the new Five Grand Challenges of Future Earth system and Sustainability science Forecasting: (energy, markets, sea and shelf state, global, regional, local scenarios, risks/opportunities) Innovating: evaluating and promoting technical, institutional (legal), social opportunities of shelf use concepts incl. trade offs and risks) Values and social choice Observing: cumulative effects of multiple sea uses incl. biodiversity as well as value systems and world views i.e. governance baselines) Process and interactions Responding: a collective vision for the co-use of continental shelves in adaptation to global drivers and pressures; e.g. Balt SeaPlan 2030) Confining: assessment of wind farm and cumulative effects as large scale experiments to determine impact, boundaries, thresholds socio-ecological risks)

28 Explore cumulative effects of multiple competing uses and implications in a SES perspective

29 Provide fundamental research and research for action as appropriate Modelling of wake effects is an important field of basic research. How to bridge energy production and demand- Offshore Grid projection (Hub Based), technical, economic and legal implications Photo: Aeolus OFFShoreGRID zones in the European GRid Model for the hub base case 2030, from OffshoreGrid Final Rep. 2011

30 Conclusions continental shelves mirror the acceleration of human resource use globally they are also often subject to most rapid global environmental change shelf seas provide the majority of global ecosystem goods and services and reflect multiple transition efforts to adapt to global and climate change, e.g.: regional and global energy policy and technology mitigation of carbon emissions (CCS, renewable energy, food ) alternative options of coastal protection (building with nature) Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) can be central in new forms of governance if developed in a participatory way ideally relying on a collective future vision Scientific assessment and process studies need to apply a socio ecological system view to account for cumulative effects, scales and feedbacks research may support the step from simple zoning to dynamic multi and co use concepts on the continental shelves research co-design, transparent knowledge, transfer and dialogue are key