W.T Consult plc. African Development Bank AFDB AFDB, Transport Forum 2015 Abidjan-cote d Ivoire November.2015

Transcription

1 African Development Bank AFDB AFDB, Transport Forum 2015 Abidjan-cote d Ivoire November ETHIOPIA: PERFORMANCE MONITORING AND IMPACT EVALUATION FOR SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT Teferra Mengesha W.T Consult plc

2 The Panel This panel will address issues regarding the need to ensure inclusive and resilient transport in the thematic area of sustainable transport development, impacting on all aspects of life social, economic and financial facilitating efficient and secure functioning of the socio-economic activity system, as well as regional integration and international connectivity,while minimizing burden on humans and the enviroment,and vulnerablity to climate change. 2

3 In this presentation, the following will be highlighted; The essence of monitoring performance and evaluating, impact, providing feedback of information for development of inclusive and resilient transport; Objectives and processes of monitoring performance and evaluating impact; Lessons from Ethiopian experience on: - The Road Sector Development Program (RSDP) performance and Millennium Development Goals(MDGs)/Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs) Transport indicator system; Ethiopia; -Impact assessment of the Universal Rural Road Access Program(URRAP) -The dynamic nature of performance monitoring and impact evaluation adaptability;.methods.information needs;.existing management Information system(mis);.data Availability 3.Usefulness for decision making and improved planning.

4 Focus of presentation To answer the following questions i. How do we monitor progress towards achieving pre-determined objectives of sustainable transport development? ii. How do we know success realized with rural roads in sustainable improvement of livelihoods? iii. How do we document findings,analyses, implications and establish significance? 4

5 Outline 1. Background and introduction. 2. The process of monitoring of the RSDP performance and MDG/SDG transport indicators. 3. URRAP, from activity via outputs to out comes/impacts. 4. URRAP activity flow chart and outputs (baseline) and follow up surveys. 5. Selected trends in RSDP performance and MDG transport indicators. 6. Findings and strategic agenda to address key challenges. 5

6 1. Background and Introduction The essence of performance monitoring -calls for government public expenditure through grater accountability &transparency out comes & impacts Significance of impact evaluation. -since 1970s concern with rural poverty & multi-dimensional nature and complexity of rural society Ethiopia has made good progress in transport sector performance monitoring and impact evaluation -Government of Ethiopia (GOE)promoted performance monitoring as integral part of RSDP lunched in in 1996/97 the road sector development program(rsdp)monitoring system was developed -Initially 15 indicators (6 benefit and 9 sustainability indicators) were selected and baseline established expand to 3 more indicators(table 1) 6

7 RSDP performance Indicators (table 1) 7 Benefit indicators Accessibility Mobility traffic flow Sustainability Indicators Maintenance budget & exp. Kilometers of road maintained Roughness and road condition Maintenance/cost of maintenance network User costs Payment processing (contractors and consultants) Freight &passenger rates Road safety Travel time Employment & income Time for contract administration(contractor & consultant) Private sector in total constraction Labor based /total construction Actual axle load /legal limit

8 2.The process of monitoring of the RSDP performance and MDG/SDG Transport indicators 8

9 3.URRAP Ethiopia Impact model 9

10 4.Impact Assessment of the Universal Rural Roads Access Program(URRAP)Ethiopia Figure of process of impact assessment activity flow diagram. 10

11 5.Selected trend in RSDP performance and MDG transport Indicators A.Road density per 1000 Km 2 -in selected years ,40 Road density per 1000km sq ,20 1,00 0,80 0,60 0,40 0,20 0,00 Road density per 1000 population Road Density per 1000 Popul Year Road Density per 1000km sq

12 B.Vehicle operating cost(overall average) 12 Vehicle Operating Cost Index Year

13 C.Roughness Index Paved Roads - Gravel Roads

14 D.Maintenance budget /Road budget 14 4,50 4,00 3,50 3,00 2,50 2,00 1,50 1,00 0,50 0,00 Maintenance Budget/Maintenance Need Maintenance Expenditure/Maintenance Need

15 a) Accessibility 6.Findings and strategic Agenda -performance has shown substantial improvement -with greater road access,as well as expanse of facilities, bsustained(at slow pace)changes in access to basic services b) Mobility on federal roads and level of affordability of transport cost -increase in vehicle kilometers travelled growing at about the same pace with GDP. -low and almost stagnant level proportion of household income spent on transport c)road system preservation sustainability -Overall,condition of network improving -Develop and implement long term road asset management practice. 15