Skills anticipation tools as early warnings of skill imbalances: Beacons of light for the future of adult learning

Transcription

1 Skills anticipation tools as early warnings of skill imbalances: Beacons of light for the future of adult learning Konstantinos Pouliakas Expert, Cedefop 25/10/ 2011 ITC-ILO, Turin, 13 September , Cedefop Konstantinos Pouliakas

2 Overview of presentation Overview 1. Skill mismatch & obsolescence. 2. Anticipating skill imbalances: practices & obstacles. 3. Case study: Anticipating skills & LLL in the city of Thessaloniki. 2 Konstantinos Pouliakas

3 Macro imbalances Macro imbalances 3 Konstantinos Pouliakas

4 Education Mismatch Mismatch in Education GR PT IT LT ES IE DK NL LV AT SE EE CY BE LU FR UK PL HU SI BG RO CZ SK FI Overqualification Underqualification Matched qualification Source: EULFS (2009) 4 Konstantinos Pouliakas

5 Skill mismatch in Europe 100% 90% 80% Employers Individuals 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 53% 42% 41% 40% 36% 34% Source: EWCS (2010) Underskilled Matched Overskilled Skill shortages in Europe 29% 29% 27% 23% 22% 20% 17% 17% 15% 11% 5% 4% 0% RO BG EL DE BE Global IT SI AU HU CZ FR NL SE UK ES IE PO Source: Manpower Talent survey (2011) 5 Konstantinos Pouliakas

6 Mismatch & LLL Mismatch & LLL 10% Probability of participation in LLL if over-qualified 5% 0% -5% AT BE BG CY CZ DK EE ES FI FR GR HU IE IT LT LU LV NL PL PT RO SE SI SK UK -10% 3% -15% 0% -3% High Medium Low Source: EULFS (2009) 6 Konstantinos Pouliakas

7 Skill obsolescence survey Cedefop s Skill Obsolescence survey Job design Skills development Skills obsolescence Job requirements Learning 7 Konstantinos Pouliakas

8 SO incidence Skills obsolescence If the amount of skills to perform optimally in our job is 100, how would you rate your own skill level? 13% 12% 75% A. Now. B. When you started doing the kind of work you currently do. C. Don t know. skill now = start skills now < start skills now > start 8 Konstantinos Pouliakas

9 SO determinants Determinants of skills obsolescence (%) *** ** ** Mediumskilled High-skilled Age Education Receipt of work-based training ** *** *** Develop skills over career *** Variety of skills in job ** 5-9 months Career interruption Organisation supports broaden skills *** Source: Cedefop pilot survey (2011) 9 Konstantinos Pouliakas

10 Overview of presentation Overview 1. Skill mismatch & obsolescence. 2. Anticipating skill imbalances: practices & obstacles. 3. Case study: Anticipating skills & LLL in the city of Thessaloniki. 10 Konstantinos Pouliakas

11 Why skills anticipation? Why skills anticipation? «There are things we know we know. We also know that there are the known unknowns, the things we know we do not know. But there are also the unknown unknowns, the things we do not know that we do not know» (D. Rumsfeld, Secretary of Defence, USA) 11 Konstantinos Pouliakas

12 A renewed approach A renewed approach to skills anticipation In the past At present Manpower planning To know: How many people will be required in this profession in 5-10 years? Skill needs anticipation (information & policy function) Which professions and what kind of new qualifications and skills will be needed? Holistic approach combining methods & different actors One of many pieces of information Better access to labour market information available Awareness: MS need common approaches for more comparable and compatible results Challenge: Transfer of findings to policy & practice EU skills panorama 12 Konstantinos Pouliakas

13 EUROPE 2020 EU initiatives Agenda for New Skills and Jobs EU- Sector Councils Skills Panorama CEDEFOP Pan-European skill supply/demand forecasting 1 st Pan-European Pilot Employer Survey Pan-European skill mismatch & obsolescence survey 13 Konstantinos Pouliakas

14 National Initiatives National Initiatives Decentralised System (trade, sector, local level) Co-ordinated non-holistic system (quantitative models) Coordinated holistic system (efficient systems, apply findings) Building a coordinated holistic system (towards a systematic approach) Source: Cedefop (2008) 14 Konstantinos Pouliakas

15 Methods Methods and approaches Quantitative econometric model-based forecasts of labour market needs by occupation and educational attainment; employers surveys, skill audits; vacancy monitors, surveys on recruitment difficulties, analyses of job adds in press/internet; sector studies, including sector scouting and determining skill needs among trendsetting companies; studies into skill needs in specific fields of activities, new technologies, occupations, qualifications and target groups; alumni surveys and monitors; Delphi studies, case studies, focus groups, observatories; foresights, shared diagnosis, scenarios; 15 Konstantinos Pouliakas

16 Macro Imbalances Skill imbalances at the macro level Millions Labour Supply EU Labour Demand EU % 29 % 37 % % 47 % 47 % % 24 % 16 % Low qualification Medium qualification High qualification 16 Konstantinos Pouliakas

17 Macro Imbalances Skill imbalances at the macro level Difficulty to hire indicator Cedefop (2012) 17 Konstantinos Pouliakas

18 Difficulties Difficulties and obstacles Lack of coordination in data collection, analysis, research, policy making and implementation A time lag between producing research findings and their incorporation into qualification standards, curricula and training courses Insufficient funding, although ESF contribution is widely recognized Statistics collection problems (insufficient samples, broken time series, changes in classifications, lack of detailed data collection on skill gaps and competence needs) Limited involvement of social partners into anticipation of skill needs Expertise deficiency in certain fields in some Member States 18 Konstantinos Pouliakas

19 Overview of presentation Overview 1. Skill mismatch & obsolescence. 2. Anticipating skill imbalances: practices & obstacles. 3. Case study: Anticipating skills & LLL in the city of Thessaloniki. 19 Konstantinos Pouliakas

20 Skills forecasting in Thessaloniki 20 Konstantinos Pouliakas

21 Skills forecasting in Thessaloniki Mismatch in Thessaloniki o One of highest regional rates of unemployment (24.7%). o Industry hit by enterprise migration to low-cost neighbouring countries. o EULFS 2009 Central Macedonia: o About 32% over-qualification rate of employees;13% severe. o 45% over-qualification rate for university graduates (29% severe ); 59% aged (30% severe ). o Only 3.5% of employed engage in LLL. 21 Konstantinos Pouliakas

22 Skills forecasting in Thessaloniki A New Initiative o Aim: Closer link between local labour market needs with local skill supply (in particular IVET & CVET). o Impetus: Spurred by new national legislation on LLL (2010) greater decentralisation. o Actions: 1. Committee comprising of local stakeholders (employers, chambers of commerce, VET institutions, universities). 2. Guidance by municipality / know-how by Cedefop. 3. Inter-municipal cooperation (Germany) (study visits & exchanges). 4. Recording of IVET & CVET actors in locality. 5. Procurement: construction of skills forecasting map. 22 Konstantinos Pouliakas

23 Skills forecasting in Thessaloniki Implementation barriers o Past pathogeneses: o Lack of political will. o Short-termism/introvert politics. o Reluctance education needs of the labour market. o Absence of specific post of LLL coordinator. o Current obstacles: o Lack of LLL culture. o Lack of training in SME s. o Underdeveloped local institutional capacity (e.g. personnel). o Distrust (history of failed past initiatives). o Financial constraints. 23 Konstantinos Pouliakas

24 Future actions Future actions 2.Sectoral studies Silver economy 1.Forecasting Skills obsolescence 3.Skill Mismatch 4.Employer s survey Short-term anticipation Support to EU Skills Panorama 24 Konstantinos Pouliakas

25 Contact Information 25 Konstantinos Pouliakas