BRITISH COLUMBIA LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK: 2017 EDITION

Transcription

1 BRITISH COLUMBIA LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK: 2017 EDITION

2 The B.C. Labour Market Outlook forecasts there will be 917,000 job openings between 2017 and 2027 ii BRITISH COLUMBIA LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK: 2017 EDITION

3 Table of Contents MINISTER S MESSAGE 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2 Future job opportunities A growing demand for new workers Where will new workers come from? A skilled workforce An aging population High demand occupations Regional variations An evolving workplace ABOUT THIS REPORT 4 What is the Labour Market Outlook? Who is the Outlook for? Where do the numbers come from? LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK 6 Overview Falling unemployment and new workers Forecasted job openings Where are new workers coming from? Education and training needs Industry Outlook Occupational Outlook Regional Outlook HIGH DEMAND OCCUPATIONS 17 List of High Demand Occupations in British Columbia EMERGING THEMES 21 a. Automation b. Skills, competencies and characteristics c. Preparing for careers not jobs APPENDIX 1 Definitions 25 APPENDIX 2 Regional Outlook Detail 26 Vancouver Island/Coast Mainland/Southwest Thompson-Okanagan Kootenay Cariboo Northeast North Coast/Nechako APPENDIX 3 Detailed Industry Forecast 40 APPENDIX 4 High Demand Occupations List Methodology 42 How is the list developed? Changes to this year s list Moving to balance successful supply response High demand health professions APPENDIX 5 Labour Supply and Hiring Requirements 46 Additions to the labour supply integration of the B.C. post-secondary model forecast Hiring requirements APPENDIX 6 Methodology and Assumptions 50 Model structure and methodology Key assumptions Gross domestic product, employment and productivity growth Labour force participation Demographic growth Replacement demand APPENDIX 7 Job Openings for All 500 Occupations 55 APPENDIX 8 Sources of New Supply for All 500 Occupations 70 BRITISH COLUMBIA LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK: 2017 EDITION iii

4 I encourage students, parents, educators and employers to use this Outlook as a tool to guide decisions. Choosing a career can be a daunting and a challenging task, but I hope that being informed makes that choice easier. iv BRITISH COLUMBIA LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK: 2017 EDITION

5 Minister s Message AS MINISTER OF ADVANCED EDUCATION, SKILLS AND TRAINING, I want all of our citizens to have access to affordable post-secondary education and skills training so they can get good-paying jobs in every corner of the province. When people have access to information, they are empowered to make good decisions, and propelled to thrive and succeed. Our government is focused on building a better B.C. by lifting up our citizens, so that everyone can share the prosperity of a strong and sustainable economy. B.C. s demographic is changing in this post baby boom era. The B.C. Labour Market Outlook gives us a snapshot of what the future holds. It shares evidence of the current state of our economy, and provides valuable insight into job availability for the next 10 years. Indigenous communities and workers will play an important role in meeting the needs of our growing workforce and strong economy. Indigenous youth are the fastest growing demographic in Canada and will play a vital role in filling the jobs of tomorrow. Ensuring all British Columbians have the right education and training to fill these job openings will be essential to the success of our province. I encourage students, parents, educators and employers to use this Outlook as a tool to guide decisions. Choosing a career can be a daunting and a challenging task, but I hope that being informed makes that choice easier. Growing a business requires enough information to support your vision and plan. Post-secondary institutions have a valuable role to play in providing relevant programs and education to support students to get higher paying jobs. This Outlook provides some of the information employers, students and educators need to form their vision and thrive in our strong, sustainable and innovative economy. MELANIE MARK Hli Haykwhl Ẃii Xsgaak Minister of Advanced Education, Skills and Training Our government is committed to providing British Columbians with the education and training they need to adapt to a changing labour market. The key to our province s success is British Columbians. BRITISH COLUMBIA LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK: 2017 EDITION 1

6 Executive Summary BRITISH COLUMBIA S WORKFORCE IS UNDERGOING SIGNIFICANT CHANGE, AND IT IS THE MAKE-UP OF OUR POPULATION THAT IS DRIVING THIS CHANGE. Baby boomers once made up the majority of B.C. s workforce. These aging workers are now moving into life-afterwork. Many have already retired, are on the verge of retirement or are cutting back their work hours. Today about eight percent of British Columbians are retirement age compared with five percent in This is expected to grow by just over one percent in the next ten years. The impact of retiring baby boomers on the workforce has already been felt. Today s workforce is now largely made up of workers who came of age after the baby boomers. The next generation of workers is now in their early 20s, and they represent the bulk of people who will enter the workforce over the next decade. If B.C. s economy is to continue to evolve and grow, we will need to give B.C. workers the necessary skills and training for 21st Century jobs. Having enough trained workers to meet our future needs will be a challenge. The rate of natural population increase (births minus deaths) will continue to gradually decline over the next ten years. Population growth overall will also decline. It s expected that 640,000 workers will leave the workforce in that time, and only 438,000 young people will join the workforce to replace them. FUTURE JOB OPPORTUNITIES The B.C. Labour Market Outlook: 2017 Edition provides forecasts for skills that will be in demand and predictions about expected job opportunities in B.C. It identifies major trends that are shaping our workplace. An important part of preparing workers for the future is making sure they have the right information. In our changing world, knowledge is power. The Outlook is just one of the tools British Columbians can use to help make informed decisions about work and career opportunities. The Outlook also helps employers in identifying emerging hiring and training challenges. A GROWING DEMAND FOR NEW WORKERS It is forecast that there will be 917,000 job openings between now and The majority of these new job openings (70 percent) will be due to workers leaving the work force, mostly through retirement. While some older workers may choose to work a little past retirement age, there will not be enough of them to solve the expected shortage of workers. WHERE WILL NEW WORKERS COME FROM? Nearly half (48 percent), of expected job openings will be filled by people entering the workforce for the first time. Immigrants and workers from other provinces will fill 36 percent of the rest of the job opportunities. Some segments of B.C. society have traditionally struggled with high levels of unemployment. With the right supports and encouragements these people can be empowered to fill future job openings. Unemployment is expected to fall over the next decade and they can fill an estimated two percent (19,000) of job openings. It is expected that the balance of job openings (15 percent) will be filled by the growing number of British Columbians being drawn into the labour force through more focussed education and training programs. Others will enter as the economy changes to make work options more attractive or more possible. A SKILLED WORKFORCE There will be a need for increasingly skilled workers. It is estimated that 78 percent of jobs will require at least some form of post-secondary education or training. Keeping up will be a challenge. It will call for educators to focus on making sure that training gives students skills that are adaptable and can last their entire careers. The Outlook helps develop a picture of the skills, competencies and worker characteristics that people will need to succeed into the 21st Century. A strong foundation of skills and workforce competencies will help people adapt to changes and opportunities that come along with increased automation. 2 BRITISH COLUMBIA LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK: 2017 EDITION

7 AN AGING POPULATION Our population is aging so there will be a growing number of careers in Health Care and Social Assistance. These jobs represent the top industry grouping for growth, with more than 15 percent of openings. Nearly sixty percent of openings in this grouping will result from retirements. The rest will come from overall growth of the healthcare system needed to meet the medical needs of an older population. Most future job openings will come from vacancies created by retiring workers, and every major industry will see at least half of job openings because of retirements over the next ten years. It is predicted that employment in B.C. will reach nearly 2.7 million by 2027 HIGH DEMAND OCCUPATIONS This edition of the Outlook has an updated list of High Demand Occupations (including High Demand Health Professions), and identifies occupations that are being replaced, trending up, and others that are moving into balance in terms of future opportunity. Details of these changes are provided in Appendix 4. REGIONAL VARIATIONS Looking at job openings on a regional basis, two-thirds will be in the Mainland/Southwest, where employment is expected to grow annually by 1.3 percent. In all regions most jobs will result from replacement, rather than expansion. The Mainland/Southwest will lead in job openings resulting from expansion at 34 percent, while the North Coast/Nechako will see the least, at three percent. AN EVOLVING WORKPLACE Looking forward, it is clear that the key to a successful workforce will be preparing British Columbians with adaptable skills and up-todate information to help guide their training, education and career choices. The one certainty is that the workforce will continue to evolve to meet the changing needs of our society and economy. A supportive education and skills training system is vital to navigating the changes. BRITISH COLUMBIA LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK: 2017 EDITION 3

8 1 About this Report THE LABOUR MARKET IS THE SUPPLY OF AVAILABLE WORKERS IN RELATION TO AVAILABLE WORK. THIS CAN VARY BY GEOGRAPHY, BY INDUSTRY AND BY OCCUPATION. B.C. has a flexible labour market. As the demand for work or workers shifts, so will supply. As the supply of workers shifts, so will the demand for workers. WHAT IS THE LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK? The Outlook is a ten-year forecast of what the province s flow of supply and demand for labour is expected to be. The Outlook is updated every year with the most up-to-date information. The purpose is to provide British Columbians with information to help make informed decisions on careers, hiring, training and education. This year s Outlook previews the period from 2017 through It estimates future supply and demand by industry, occupation, education and skill level and geographic region. It offers the best available information about the kinds of jobs and skills that will be most in demand, province-wide and regionally, over the next ten years. WHO IS THE OUTLOOK FOR? The Outlook helps young people plan their careers, and it assists educators develop training that is current and relevant and will lead to jobs. This information also supports employers and helps them develop training plans and plan investments. Students, families, school counsellors and people looking for work use the projections to make informed decisions about education, training and career planning. Employers and investors use the information for long-term planning and industry leaders identify skill needs and employment projections that are valuable to government. Planners, consultants and entrepreneurs can use the raw data posted on the B.C. Data Catalogue to develop applications and other tools for analysis and planning. WHERE DO THE NUMBERS COME FROM? The Outlook uses the best, most reliable and up-to-date data from sources including BC Stats, B.C. Ministry of Finance, Statistics Canada and other federal departments. A sophisticated economic modelling system is used to analyze data that is collected as well as other factors that affect labour market supply and demand. Data is also looked at based on geographic region, industry and occupation. The model looks at projections for economic growth, the need to replace retiring workers and productivity trends. The model also considers factors related to population growth, the number of people seeking work and the impact of training and job matching on unemployment (see Figure 1-1 p.5). 4 BRITISH COLUMBIA LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK: 2017 EDITION

9 DEMAND How many job openings will there be? NEW JOBS: How much will the economy grow?»» GDP growth»» Consumer spending»» Growth in 58 industries»» Residential investment»» Non-residential investment»» Exports/Imports»» Government spending REPLACEMENT JOBS: How many people will retire and when?»» Age of labour force»» Age of retirement»» Health trends»» Lifestyle/generational trends»» Financial need pension security and investment returns INNOVATION: How will productivity and skill requirements change?»» Technology FIGURE 1-1: Capturing Complex Labour Market Dynamics 917,000 Job Openings 2017 to 2027 SUPPLY How will job openings be filled? POPULATION: How many people will there be?»» Births»» Deaths»» Interprovincial net migration»» International net migration WORKERS: How many people will choose to work or look for work?»» Age & gender of labour force»» Wages/wealth»» Age of retirement»» Social/lifestyle trends»» Education, training, continuing education & skills development MATCH PEOPLE TO JOBS: How far can we reduce unemployment rates?»» Training/matching unemployed people to fill job openings HIGH DEMAND OCCUPATIONS are those that rank high on job openings and employment, and low on unemployment rate and excess supply. The projections that are generated are tested with employers, unions, industry groups and post-secondary institutions. This means the Outlook s forecast has a high degree of confidence for individuals, businesses and governments making decisions related to the labour force. Technological innovations can create new opportunities and have unforeseen effects. That is why the Outlook s data and assumptions are reviewed and updated every year. This year s Outlook includes an expanded section on skills and competencies, taking a closer look at the list of desirable characteristics future employers will be seeking. The Outlook also examines emerging topics, such as automation and the impact it may have on future employment. For more on the methodology and assumptions behind this report, see Appendix 6. For access to the full set of forecast data for all 500 occupations and regions, go to: dataset/labour-market-outlook Supplementary reports providing more industry and occupational group detail are available at ca/industry For a broader look at employment, hiring and training opportunities, visit: To share your input on the Outlook and how we can continue building a reliable labour market information system for B.C., workbcinformation@gov.bc.ca BRITISH COLUMBIA LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK: 2017 EDITION 5

10 2 Labour Market Outlook OVER THE PAST 50 YEARS, BABY BOOMERS, (PEOPLE BORN IN THE TWENTY YEARS AFTER WORLD WAR II) HAVE MADE UP THE LARGEST PART OF OUR WORKFORCE. The oldest baby boomers are now 71 and the youngest will be 62 in 2027 (the end of this Outlook s forecast period). This generation is now beginning to focus on life after work. At the same time, people in the large millennial generation are starting to move into their thirties, with a smaller generation following them. The result is an actual decline in the number of people in their twenties over the next ten years. For British Columbia s labour force this presents a new set of dynamics as well as challenges as B.C. works to grow its economy. Those looking to join the workforce will need a new set of skills to navigate and be successful in an evolving labour market. OVERVIEW The B.C. Labour Market Outlook forecasts there will be 917,000 total job openings between 2017 and About 70 percent of these openings will be to replace workers leaving the labour force because of retirement, illness, or death. The remaining 30 percent will be new jobs created through economic growth. It is predicted that employment in B.C. will reach nearly 2.7 million by the end of This is based on real annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 2.0 percent, and annual average employment growth of 1.1 percent. Productivity growth is forecast to be 0.9 percent over the same ten-year period. The previous Labour Market Outlook assumed that real GDP would grow by 2.2 percent between 2015 and 2025 and that employment would grow by 1.2 percent. This year s rates of growth have been predicted to be lower to reflect expected slower population growth between 2022 and FALLING UNEMPLOYMENT AND NEW WORKERS The combination of B.C. s aging workforce, fewer available workers than will be in demand and more employment support programs means unemployment will be expected to fall to 4.9 percent by This is compared to the unemployment rate of 6.0 percent in. This reduction in unemployment is expected to fill 19,000 (2 percent) of the job openings through The remaining 98 percent of job openings will be filled by additions to the supply of labour: New entrants (B.C. residents aged 29 or less entering the labour force) are expected to fill 48 percent of the forecast job openings. 15 percent of the job openings will be filled as more B.C. residents are drawn into the labour force; and Immigrants will fill 27 percent of job openings and workers coming from other parts of Canada will fill nine percent of the jobs. 6 BRITISH COLUMBIA LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK: 2017 EDITION

11 FORECASTED JOB OPENINGS TABLE 2-1: Labour Market Outlook Highlights, British Columbia, Share of Total Job Openings Total Job Openings 917, % Replacement 640,000 70% Economic growth 277,000 30% Supply Additions 898,000 98% New entrants 438,000 48% Net international in-migration 244,000 27% Net interprovincial in-migration 80,000 9% Change in labour force participation 136,000 15% Reduced Unemployment 19,000 2% Note: Values rounded, percentages are shares of the total, job openings are filled through labour supply additions and reduced unemployment. Supply addition percentages do not sum to 98% due to rounding. This Outlook integrates results from the British Columbia Post-Secondary Supply Model (PSSM). Of the 438,000 new entrants, it is expected that 321,000 (73 percent) will be graduates from public post-secondary institutions and private trades training organizations. More details are provided in Appendix 5. BRITISH COLUMBIA LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK: 2017 EDITION 7

12 Figure 2-1 clearly shows the year-by-year exit of older workers from the labour market. The number of job openings that will come about from replacement (led by retirements), is expected to grow gradually in the next 10 years. The number of replacements ranges from 62,000 in both 2018 and 2019 up to 66,000 every year from Job openings that are created by economic expansion will fluctuate over the ten-year period. The total number of job openings each year between 2017 and 2027 will reach a high in 2023 at 98,000. They will fall as low as 88,000 in ,000 FIGURE 2-1: Job Openings Forecast, B.C., ,000 60,000 62,000 62,000 63,000 63,000 63,000 64,000 65,000 66,000 66,000 66,000 40,000 20, ,000 25,000 26,000 26,000 29,000 33,000 32,000 29,000 24,000 24, Expansion Replacement Note: (Figure 2-1) This forecast includes construction outlined in the B.C. Major Projects Inventory ( considered a high probability of proceeding and aligns to B.C. Ministry of Finance macroeconomic forecasts, which does not include the impact of potential LNG investments. WHERE ARE NEW WORKERS COMING FROM? It is expected that on average 64,000 workers will permanently leave the labour force each year. There will be an ongoing need to add workers from a number of sources. Figure 2-2 demonstrates where these workers are expected to come from. The main source of new workers will be people entering the workforce for the first time (people younger than 30 years old). As shown in figure 2-3, this group will fill up to 44,000 job openings in each year. Nearly 14,000 new workers will be added each year by increasing the number of British Columbians actively participating in the labour force. One source of these additional workers is in communities or groups of people that have historically high underemployment or unemployment. By providing the right social supports many underemployed individuals will be able to join or re-join the labour force. This includes Indigenous people, women, people living with disabilities, and both older and younger people. If labour demand continues to grow as expected and education and skills training programs continue to be made available to reduce barriers to employment, more people will be drawn into the labour force. 8 BRITISH COLUMBIA LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK: 2017 EDITION

13 FIGURE 2-2: Sources of Additions to Labour Supply, B.C., Number of Workers 120, ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, ,000-40,000-60,000-80, Labour Force Exits Net Interprovincial In-Migration New Entrants Change in Labour Force Participation Net International In-Migration Labour Force Change Greater participation of all British Columbians along with the growing number of people joining the workforce for the first time will still not be enough to meet the expected demand for workers. B.C. will also have to depend on workers moving here from other provinces and from other countries: Immigrants will account for 24,000 new workers each year (of the 38,000 immigrants to B.C. each year); and Individuals moving from other provinces will supply 8,000 new workers a year (from the total 13,000 people arriving each year from other parts of Canada). FIGURE 2-3: New Entrants Supply and Total Job Openings, B.C., ,000 80,000 60,000 91,000 88,000 89,000 89,000 92,000 98,000 97,000 94,000 90,000 90,000 40,000 20,000 44,000 44,000 44,000 44,000 44,000 44,000 44,000 44,000 43,000 43, Job Openings New Entrants B.C. s labour market is expected to be in balance over the next ten years. The ongoing challenge the labour market faces in B.C. each year is filling the large gap between new entrants and the job openings needed to keep the economy growing. BRITISH COLUMBIA LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK: 2017 EDITION 9

14 EDUCATION AND TRAINING NEEDS Education and training will play an increasingly important role in the labour market outlook over the next 10 years. The focus in training is moving away from training for a specific job. Instead it has shifted to recognize the value and importance of learning skills for a career. Having a broader base of knowledge and being adaptable opens up more job opportunities for students and workers. People looking for work will find they ll need at least a minimum level of post-secondary education or training for 78 percent (718,000) of the job openings expected in the next 10 years. As seen in Figure 2-4, the largest component of these job openings (42 percent), will be in occupations requiring a diploma, certificate or apprenticeship training. The second largest component (36 percent), will be in occupations requiring a bachelor s, graduate or first professional degree and/or significant work experience. FIGURE 2-4: Job Openings by Education Requirements, B.C., ,800 4% LESS THAN HIGH SCHOOL 161,200 18% HIGH SCHOOL AND/OR OCCUPATION SPECIFIC TRAINING 917,000 JOB OPENINGS EXPECTED IN B.C. TO ,300 42% DIPLOMA, CERTIFICATE OR APPRENTICESHIP TRAINING 330,700 36% BACHELOR'S, GRADUATE OR FIRST PROFESSIONAL DEGREE AND/OR SIGNIFICANT WORK EXPERIENCE INDUSTRY OUTLOOK Five industries alone will account for about half of the total projected job openings in British Columbia between 2017 and 2027: HEALTH CARE AND SOCIAL ASSISTANCE: 142,500 JOB OPENINGS; 15.5% OF THE TOTAL JOB OPENINGS PROFESSIONAL, SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL SERVICES: 102,400 JOB OPENINGS; 11.2% RETAIL TRADE: 86,900 JOB OPENINGS; 9.5% ACCOMMODATION AND FOOD SERVICES: 62,700 JOB OPENINGS; 6.8% TRANSPORTATION AND WAREHOUSING: 62,400 JOB OPENINGS; 6.8% 10 BRITISH COLUMBIA LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK: 2017 EDITION

15 Because of B.C. s aging population Health Care and Social Assistance will be the top industry group for job openings in the next decade. It is anticipated the industry will see 57% of job openings result from the need to replace retiring workers, while 43% of openings will come from expansion of the health system in response to the medical needs of B.C. s aging population. FIGURE 2-5: Job Openings by Major Industry Group, B.C., HEALTH CARE AND SOCIAL ASSISTANCE 81,400 61,100 PROFESSIONAL, SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL SERVICES 56,700 45,800 RETAIL TRADE 64,700 22,200 ACCOMMODATION AND FOOD SERVICES TRANSPORTATION AND WAREHOUSING EDUCATIONAL SERVICES CONSTRUCTION INFORMATION, CULTURE AND RECREATION FINANCE, INSURANCE AND REAL ESTATE MANUFACTURING OTHER PRIVATE SERVICES PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION BUSINESS, BUILDING AND OTHER SUPPORT SERVICES WHOLESALE TRADE 33,000 40,900 48,000 57,100 31,400 40,200 51,800 29,000 30,800 24,800 24,800 29,700 21,500 11,400 2,000 25,300 14,900 3,200 14,300 11,500 8,800 6,500 MINING AND OIL AND GAS EXTRACTION AGRICULTURE AND FISHING UTILITIES FORESTRY AND LOGGING WITH SUPPORT ACTIVITIES 4,400 / 2,500 6,100 / 100 4,200 / 300-4,100 / 7,200-20, ,000 40,000 60,000 80, , , , ,000 Replacement Expansion New job openings come from either the need to replace retiring workers or because of economic growth. The need to replace retiring workers will create more than half of the projected job openings for every major B.C. industry over the next ten years. Some industries will see more job openings because of economic growth and industry expansion. These include: Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (45% of the openings will be due to industry expansion); and Information, Culture and Recreation (45%). Some other industries will see only limited employment growth because of different circumstances. For example, almost all job openings in the Forestry and Logging with Support Activities industry will be to replace retiring workers. Replacement job openings make up more than 90 percent of the job openings in: Agriculture and Fishing (98%), Construction (97%), Manufacturing (94%), and Utilities (93%). BRITISH COLUMBIA LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK: 2017 EDITION 11

16 A more detailed forecast of employment and job openings for each of B.C. s 18 major industry categories and the 58 more specific industry subsets can be found in Appendix 3. Profiles of each industry and industry category are available at OCCUPATIONAL OUTLOOK Three occupational groups (based on the National Occupational Classification) account for more than half (51%) the projected job openings in B.C. over the next ten years. As Figure 2-6 shows, nearly three quarters of the total job openings are expected to be in the top five occupational groups: SALES AND SERVICE: 183,000 JOB OPENINGS; 20.0% OF THE TOTAL JOB OPENINGS BUSINESS, FINANCE AND ADMINISTRATION: 152,700 JOB OPENINGS; 16.7% MANAGEMENT: 133,900 JOB OPENINGS; 14.6% TRADES, TRANSPORT AND EQUIPMENT OPERATORS AND RELATED: 116,100 JOB OPENINGS; 12.7% EDUCATION, LAW AND SOCIAL, COMMUNITY AND GOVERNMENT SERVICES: 104,300 JOB OPENINGS; 11.4% Sales and Service is often thought of as an entry point into the workforce, giving new workers opportunities to develop and hone skills and competencies. There are though, many sales and service occupations that require significant education and lots of experience. The second and third groupings (Business, Finance and Administration; and Management) offer workers wide-ranging employment opportunities to take part in roles important to nearly every organization in B.C. 12 BRITISH COLUMBIA LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK: 2017 EDITION

17 FIGURE 2-6: Job Openings by Major Occupational Group, B.C., SALES AND SERVICE 113,900 69,100 BUSINESS, FINANCE AND ADMINISTRATION MANAGEMENT TRADES, TRANSPORT AND EQUIPMENT OPERATORS AND RELATED EDUCATION, LAW AND SOCIAL, COMMUNITY AND GOVERNMENT SERVICES HEALTH NATURAL AND APPLIED SCIENCES AND RELATED ART, CULTURE, RECREATION AND SPORT MANUFACTURING AND UTILITIES NATURAL RESOURCES, AGRICULTURE AND RELATED PRODUCTION 108,100 44, ,100 28,800 94,800 21,300 73,900 30,400 44,800 34,700 43,200 32,300 17,700 15,000 26, ,400 / , , , ,000 Replacement Expansion For some of the major occupational groups, job openings are a result of not only the make-up of the workforce but also changes in productivity. For example, about 98 percent of the job openings in the Manufacturing and Utilities occupations will be to replace existing workers. Manufacturing will continue to grow, creating the need for new workers, but increased automation in this sector means that there will be very few net new jobs created. This same situation is occurring with the Natural Resources, Agriculture and Related Production occupations. The need to replace workers will account for just over half of the total job openings in three occupational groups: Art, Culture, Recreation and Sport Occupations (54%); Health Occupations (56%); and Natural and Applied Sciences and Related Occupations (57%). Detailed labour market outlooks for selected occupational groups are available on WorkBC.ca/industry. BRITISH COLUMBIA LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK: 2017 EDITION 13

18 REGIONAL OUTLOOK British Columbia s regions are as diverse as its landscape. Each region has a distinct economy and different conditions that affect its labour market. The Outlook provides a closer look at the thousands of job opportunities that are expected in seven economic regions. North Coast/ Nechako Northeast Cariboo Vancouver Island/ Coast Mainland/ and/ Southwest Thompson- Okanagan Kootenay TABLE 2-2: Employment and Job Openings by Development Region Region Employment Employment Growth (Average Annual Growth Rate) Expansion Replacement Total Job Openings Vancouver Island/Coast 371, % 30, , ,800 Mainland/Southwest 1,549, % 209, , ,500 Thompson-Okanagan 255, % 24,900 71,200 96,100 Kootenay 69, % 5,100 19,500 24,600 Cariboo 82, % 2,600 23,300 25,900 Northeast 41, % 4,400 12,000 16,400 North Coast/Nechako 42, % ,300 11,700 British Columbia 2,408, % 277,000* 640,000* 917,000 * sum over regions may not add up to B.C. total due to rounding 14 BRITISH COLUMBIA LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK: 2017 EDITION

19 Table 2-2 is a summary of employment and job openings expected in each of the seven regions of B.C. In recent years, the Mainland/Southwest, Vancouver Island/Coast and to some extent Thompson-Okanagan regions have had strong economic and employment growth. Over the next ten years this strong growth trend is expected to continue. These regions have a broad mix of fast growing industries and a growing population. Employment is connected to activities across the whole province. The Northeast, North Coast/Nechako, Kootenay and Cariboo regions are only starting to show recovery this year from a downturn in commodity prices. When looking within these regions it is important to note how diverse the economy is among the different regional districts and communities. One good example is the Vancouver Island/Coast region. Here employment growth and low unemployment rates are mostly occurring in the Capital, Cowichan Valley and Nanaimo regional districts. Other regional districts in the region haven t seen the same degree of prosperity. Individual regional outlooks can be found in Appendix 2. BRITISH COLUMBIA LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK: 2017 EDITION 15

20 Key high demand health occupations include general practitioners, psychiatrists, nurses, sonographers and physiotherapists. 16 BRITISH COLUMBIA LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK: 2017 EDITION

21 3 High Demand Occupations There are 500 occupations listed in the economy and labour market. Some occupations will have better prospects for job seekers than others. To help British Columbians make career choices and better prepare our workforce for the jobs of the 21st Century, with the right education and training, all occupations have been ranked to show their relative position in terms of future job opportunities. The top occupations are provided in the High Demand Occupations list. 1 Information on how the list is developed and the methodology involved is included in Appendix 4. LIST OF HIGH DEMAND OCCUPATIONS IN BRITISH COLUMBIA TABLE 3-1: List of High Demand Occupations, B.C., OCCUPATION JOB OPENINGS LOW MEDIAN HIGH HIGH DEMAND OCCUPATIONS IN MANAGEMENT USUALLY REQUIRING A BACHELOR'S, GRADUATE OR FIRST PROFESSIONAL DEGREE AND/OR SIGNIFICANT WORK EXPERIENCE (19 OCCUPATIONS) Retail and wholesale trade managers 26,200 $14.25 $26.00 $ Restaurant and food service managers 8,500 $12.02 $19.00 $ Insurance, real estate and financial brokerage managers 7,100 $14.42 $34.97 $ Corporate sales managers 5,200 $20.00 $39.23 $ Banking, credit and other investment managers 4,700 $24.00 $38.46 $ Financial managers 4,600 $18.97 $39.90 $ Senior managers financial, communications and other business services 4,500 $18.00 $48.60 $ Computer and information systems managers 4,500 $24.04 $43.75 $ Facility operation and maintenance managers 4,000 $17.79 $34.97 $ Advertising, marketing and public relations managers 3,700 $18.41 $33.65 $ Senior managers construction, transportation, production and utilities 3,500 $22.50 $40.38 $ Senior managers trade, broadcasting and other services, n.e.c. 3,200 $10.85 $35.26 $ Human resources managers 3,100 $22.00 $37.50 $ Home building and renovation managers 3,100 $14.00 $20.00 $ Managers in social, community and correctional services 2,900 $21.00 $37.00 $ Managers in transportation 2,800 $19.91 $35.00 $ Accommodation service managers 2,700 $14.42 $21.15 $ Administrators post-secondary education and vocational training 1,800 $17.86 $36.89 $ Recreation, sports and fitness program and service directors 1,200 $10.85 $26.03 $ NOC CODE 1 In the B.C Labour Market Outlook, two lists of Top 60 High Opportunity Occupations that require training were developed. In both the B.C Labour Market Outlook and the B.C Labour Market Outlook, a list of Top 100 High Opportunity Occupations list that require education and training or significant experience was developed. This year s list uses the same methodology but with the integration of the health professions is now called the High Demand Occupations list. BRITISH COLUMBIA LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK: 2017 EDITION 17

22 OCCUPATION JOB OPENINGS LOW MEDIAN HIGH HIGH DEMAND OCCUPATIONS USUALLY REQUIRING BACHELOR'S, GRADUATE OR FIRST PROFESSIONAL DEGREE (24 OCCUPATIONS) Financial auditors and accountants 11,500 $16.64 $27.69 $ Information systems analysts and consultants 9,600 $21.46 $36.92 $ Computer programmers and interactive media developers 8,800 $20.01 $37.02 $ College and other vocational instructors 6,300 $16.00 $32.00 $ Software engineers and designers 5,000 $19.23 $37.13 $ Other financial officers 4,700 $21.15 $29.74 $ University professors and lecturers 4,600 $16.50 $38.46 $ Professional occupations in business management consulting 4,300 $15.38 $36.00 $ Professional occupations in advertising, marketing and public relations 3,600 $16.00 $30.77 $ Lawyers and Quebec notaries 3,600 $39,811* $106,361* $269,702* 4112 Civil engineers 3,400 $21.46 $36.78 $ Producers, directors, choreographers and related occupations 3,100 $16.54 $29.50 $ Web designers and developers 2,900 $15.38 $22.00 $ Social workers 2,700 $19.00 $30.50 $ Business development officers and marketing researchers and consultants 2, Human resources professionals 2,400 $18.75 $31.28 $ Family, marriage and other related counsellors 2,300 $18.10 $27.50 $ Authors and writers 2, Health policy researchers, consultants and program officers 1,600 $20.98 $33.88 $ Natural and applied science policy researchers, consultants and program officers 1,600 $24.62 $33.65 $ Post-Secondary Teaching and Research Assistants 1,600 $10.85 $21.15 $ Architects 1,500 $22.66 $31.73 $ Computer engineers (except software engineers and designers) 1,400 $25.48 $40.50 $ Psychologists 1, HIGH DEMAND OCCUPATIONS USUALLY REQUIRING DIPLOMA, CERTIFICATE OR APPRENTICESHIP TRAINING (22 OCCUPATIONS) Administrative officers 19,800 $15.00 $23.00 $ Administrative assistants 15,000 $12.00 $22.00 $ Social and community service workers 11,400 $15.38 $19.11 $ Accounting technicians and bookkeepers 10,100 $12.02 $20.00 $ Early childhood educators and assistants 9,100 $11.00 $16.00 $ Automotive service technicians, truck and bus mechanics and mechanical repairers 6,700 $16.82 $27.28 $ Real estate agents and salespersons 6,600 $22,002* $44,753* $103,667* 6232 Hairstylists and barbers 5,000 $10.85 $13.85 $ Program leaders and instructors in recreation, sport and fitness 4,700 $11.50 $20.00 $ Property administrators 4,500 $11.54 $23.00 $ Computer network technicians 3,800 $20.19 $32.69 $ Police officers (except commissioned) 3,700 $14.42 $37.50 $ NOC CODE 18 BRITISH COLUMBIA LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK: 2017 EDITION

23 OCCUPATION JOB OPENINGS LOW MEDIAN HIGH Electronic service technicians (household and business equipment) 3,300 $15.00 $24.24 $ User support technicians 3,000 $16.00 $25.96 $ Retail sales supervisors 2,900 $12.00 $18.45 $ Insurance agents and brokers 2,700 $12.69 $21.54 $ Executive assistants 2,600 $18.00 $24.86 $ Contractors and supervisors, heavy equipment operator crews 2,400 $25.00 $32.09 $ Legal administrative assistants 2,200 $15.00 $24.00 $ Air pilots, flight engineers and flying instructors 2,100 $22.94 $48.08 $ Insurance adjusters and claims examiners 1,500 $19.23 $34.63 $ Firefighters 1,500 $17.63 $36.00 $ HIGH DEMAND OCCUPATIONS USUALLY REQUIRING HIGH SCHOOL AND/OR OCCUPATION SPECIFIC TRAINING (8 OCCUPATIONS) Retail salespersons 27,000 $10.85 $12.00 $ General office support workers 12,200 $12.50 $21.00 $ Receptionists 11,100 $11.00 $16.00 $ Food and beverage servers 9,400 $10.85 $10.85 $ Home support workers, housekeepers and related occupations 7,200 $10.85 $17.00 $ Accounting and related clerks 6,400 $13.00 $20.50 $ Home child care providers 4,300 $10.85 $10.85 $ Taxi and limousine drivers and chauffeurs 2,500 $10.85 $16.50 $ HIGH DEMAND HEALTH OCCUPATIONS (PRIORITY HEALTH OCCUPATIONS IDENTIFIED BY THE B.C. MINISTRY OF HEALTH) OCCUPATION EMPLOYMENT LOW MEDIAN HIGH 2017 General practitioners and family physicians 6,758 $41,593* $207,881* $409,901* 3112 Psychiatrists 839** $60,510* $232,402* $461,541* - Registered nurses and registered psychiatric nurses 52,540 $32.33 $42.45 $ Medical sonographers 702 $31.18 $37.02 $ Physiotherapists 3,415 $32.97 $39.17 $ Occupational therapists 1,982 $32.97 $39.17 $ Nurse aides, orderlies and patient service associates 32,353 $19.92 $23.05 $ Perfusionists 58** $47.72 $49.45 $ NOC CODE NOC CODE Notes: Occupations highlighted refer to moving to balance occupations. The wage rate refers to the Job Bank hourly wage rate which was updated in, unless otherwise noted. For occupations with a *, the annual wage rate is provided as the hourly wage rate is not available. The data source is Employment and Social Development Canada except for health professions. Wage data for General practitioners and family physicians and Psychiatrists are from the B.C. Ministry of Health, representing gross earnings before the payment of office and other overhead expenses; wage data for other health occupations are from the Health Employers Association of B.C. Employment for health professions Psychiatrists and Perfusionists (marked with a ** ) refer to the employment estimates in. Data are from the B.C. Ministry of Health BRITISH COLUMBIA LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK: 2017 EDITION 19

24 More and more, a person s success in the labour market will rely on their adaptability and ability to develop transferable skills and competencies. 20 BRITISH COLUMBIA LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK: 2017 EDITION

25 4 EMERGING THEMES a AUTOMATION Emerging new technologies are changing the way we work and the way we live from smart phones and web-based applications to self-serve kiosks and automated teller machines. Compare today s workplace, in just about any industry, to what it was a generation ago. Not only has the physical workplace changed, with newer and faster machines or computers, so has the way the work is done. It s now done more efficiently with more people focussed on more highly skilled tasks. Automation can help increase productivity of workers enabling them to accomplish certain tasks faster, safer and with fewer errors. It can also enhance the satisfaction of workers by substituting routine tasks with more rewarding tasks. Technology can also reduce physical demands and, make it possible for older workers and those with physical challenges to be part of the workforce. Automation can create new tasks and new occupations, increasing the demand for existing or new jobs. As one example, B.C. has an opportunity to develop as a leader in the research, development and commercialization of artificial intelligence. There are more than 100 start-ups and enterprises active in Vancouver. These new enterprises take advantage of connections to other key Canadian centres. 21 There are similar opportunities for a range of other new tech sector jobs related to manufacturing automation and 3D printing. Automation can also replace tasks previously performed by people. Some say that with automation replacing tasks done by people and rapid advances in artificial intelligence, many people may be pushed into unemployment. Automation may mean jobs are being eliminated faster than new jobs or new tasks can be created. Only 48 percent of B.C. s expected job openings will be filled by individuals entering the workforce for the first time. There will still be a huge need for new workers. Automation and technological innovation may be a tremendous help in dealing with labour shortages. Automation may be a benefit to our workforce rather than lead to increased unemployment in B.C. Some workplaces have experienced a greater impact from adopting new technologies than others. Workplaces will continue to evolve along with new technologies. More and more, a person s success in the labour market will rely on their adaptability and ability to develop transferable skills and competencies. As future Outlook reports are developed, a greater focus will be on the impact of technological innovation and automation on B.C. s future labour market. The current Outlook expects productivity to grow at the historical rate (0.9 percent per year). The same historical rate of innovation and automation has been factored into projections. A Ryerson University study looking at the impact of automation on Canada, found nearly 42% of the Canadian labour force is at a high risk of being affected by automation over the next decade or two. The study also looked at how new technologies will result in major job restructuring. The study found occupations with the lowest risk of being affected by automation are those occupations with higher earnings and education. It is estimated that only 27% of net new jobs created between 2014 and 2024 are associated with high automation risk occupations. Source: Creig Lamb. The Talented Mr. Robot: The impact of automation on Canada s workforce. Brookfield Institute. June 2 J.F. Gagne, CEO Element AI via BRITISH COLUMBIA LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK: 2017 EDITION 21

26 b SKILLS, COMPETENCIES AND CHARACTERISTICS British Columbians will need a strong foundation of skills and workforce competencies as they plan their career paths and adapt to changes in the labour market. Some changes can be anticipated but others will be less predictable, and will have an enormous impact on the workplace and the workforce. That s why helping young people acquire adaptable skills is more important now than ever. A number of international and national organizations have been looking at different approaches to helping workers get the skills they ll need for the future. According to a study by the World Economic Forum 3,2 by 2020 more than one-third of the desired core skill sets for most occupations will be comprised of skills not currently considered crucial to the job. FIGURE 4-1: Top Ten Competencies 2015 and 2020 TOP 10 COMPETENCIES IN 2015 AND PROJECTED FOR 2020 THE TOP 10 COMPETENCIES IN 2020 WILL BE: THE TOP COMPETENCIES IN 2015: 1. COMPLEX PROBLEM SOLVING 1. COMPLEX PROBLEM SOLVING 2. CRITICAL THINKING 2. COORDINATING WITH OTHERS 3. CREATIVITY 3. PEOPLE MANAGEMENT 4. PEOPLE MANAGEMENT 4. CRITICAL THINKING 5. COORDINATING WITH OTHERS 5. NEGOTIATION 6. EMOTIONAL INTELLIGENCE 6. QUALITY CONTROL 7. JUDGMENT AND DECISION-MAKING 7. SERVICE ORIENTATION 8. SERVICE ORIENTATION 8. JUDGMENT AND DECISION-MAKING 9. NEGOTIATION 9. ACTIVE LISTENING 10. COGNITIVE FLEXIBILITY 10. CREATIVITY Source: Jobs of the Future. World Economic Forum. January In British Columbia, government ministries have developed a Success in the Future Workforce: Skills, Competencies and Characteristics 4 3 framework (Figure 4-2) based on the O*Net Content Model to identify skills, competencies and characteristics for a more successful workforce. This framework can be used to help guide education program and policy development, governmentsponsored employment training, and labour market analysis and forecasting. It is one tool to help match future job needs with the right skills and competencies. 3 World Economic Forum (). The Future of Jobs: Employment, Skills and Workforce Strategy for the Fourth Industrial Revolution, 4 The Success in the Future Workforce: Skills, Competencies and Characteristics are aligned with the attributes classified in the O*NET Content Model. All attributes are measurable at the occupational level. The O*NET database is regularly updated. 22 BRITISH COLUMBIA LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK: 2017 EDITION

27 FIGURE 4-2: Success in the Future Workforce: Skills, Competencies and Characteristics 54 Complex problem solving skills Resource management skills e.g., Time, Financial, Material resources and People Management System skills e.g., Judgement and Decision making, System evaluation Competencies2 Social skills e.g., Cultural sensitivity, Coordination, Negotiation and Service orientation Ability to apply knowledge, skills and abilities to successfully perform tasks Abilities4 e.g., Logical reasoning5, Mathematical resoning, Visualization and Cognitive flexibility6 Future Workforce Occupational Interests7 e.g., Realistic, Investigative, Artistic and Enterprising occupations Personal characteristics that may influence both performance and capacity to acquire knowledge and skills required for effective work performance Characteristics3 Work Values8 e.g., Creativity, Advancement, Autonomy and Recognition Work Styles9 e.g., Analytical thinking, Cooperation, Innovation, Leadership and Persistence Technical skills e.g., Programming, Quality control and Troubleshooting Skills1 Ability to perform tasks Process skills e.g., Critical thinking, Active learning and Monitoring Education10 e.g., Skill level 0 to D, Credentials and High School Transcript Knowledge11 e.g., Classification of Instructional Programs (CIP) Content skills e.g., Reading, Listening, Writing, Speaking and Mathematics The B.C. Ministry of Education 65 has put in place a new curriculum model for kindergarten to grade nine. This model covers literacy and numeracy (including financial, visual, and digital literacies) as well as core competencies (thinking, communication, personal and social). All areas of learning are based on a Know-Do-Understand model, as show in figure Source: U.S. Department of Labor/Employment and Training Administration, The O*NET Content Model. The bold highlighted attributes are top skills required to thrive in the Fourth Industrial Revolution by 2020 identified by the World Economic Forum Note: 1 Skills refers to Basic Skills in the O*NET Content Model 2 Competencies refers to Cross-Functional Skills in the O*NET Content Model 3 Characteristics refers to Worker Characteristics in the O*NET Content Model 4 Abilities Enduring attributes of the individual that influence performance 5 Logical reasoning includes deductive and inductive reasoning 6 Cognitive flexibility includes Category flexibility and Flexibility of closure 7 Occupational interests Preferences for work environments 8 Work Values Global aspects of work composed of specific needs that are important to a person's satisfaction 9 Work Styles Personal characteristics that can affect how well someone performs a job 10 Education Prior educational experience required to perform in a job 11 Knowledge Organized sets of principles and facts 6 Ministry of Education (). B.C. s New Curriculum, BRITISH COLUMBIA LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK: 2017 EDITION 23

28 FIGURE 4-3: B.C. Ministry of Education s Curriculum Model and Core Competencies Curricular Competency Learning Standards Skills, strategies & process What students will be able to do UNDERSTAND Big Ideas Generalizations & principles What students will understand Concepts Content Learning Standards Topics What students will know KNOW T C PS THINKING Creative Thinking Critical Thinking COMMUNICATION PERSONAL AND SOCIAL Positive Personal/Cultural Identity Personal Awareness and Responsibility Social Awareness and Responsibility Industry is also developing new approaches to incorporating skills, competencies and characteristics in developing its workforce. c PREPARING FOR CAREERS NOT JOBS Instead of going to school to prepare for a specific job, students are coming to understand the benefits of preparing for a career path a path that uses core skills and competencies but also takes into account their personal characteristics and preferences. This approach to skills development opens the door to more opportunities across a spectrum of similar occupations and creates opportunities for more diversified employment over a person s lifetime. In other parts of the world, educators are beginning to look at occupational clusters, which group occupations with a common foundation of skills, competencies and worker characteristics. Another way of looking at work opportunities is the concept of career ladders and lattices. These are diagrams that illustrate the related job options that are available throughout a career. Career ladders look at the more traditional upward progression of roles and responsibilities within a career. A career lattice looks at both upward and lateral changes in jobs that offer more career development choices. FIGURE 4-4: Sample Career Ladders/Lattices: Information Technology and Retail 76 IT MANAGER MANAGER COMPUTER SYSTEMS ANALYST / IT CONSULTANT ASSISTANT STORE MANAGER STORE MANAGER MARKETING MANAGER MERCHANDISE MANAGER NETWORK AND COMPUTER SYSTEMS ADMINISTRATOR COMPUTER SECURITY SPECIALIST DEPARTMENT SALES MANAGER ASSISTANT BUYER DATABASE ADMINISTRATOR NETWORK SYSTEMS AND DATA COMMUNICATIONS ANALYST COMPUTER PROGRAMMER SALES ASSOCIATE COMPUTER SUPPORT SPECIALIST STOCK CLERK CASHIER Career ladders/lattices can be a useful career-planning tool. They help people better understand the training, education and experiences they need to develop their career. They can also be used to attract workers to an industry or a company by showing the range of career progression opportunities available. 7 Source: Competency Model Clearinghouse accessed via 24 BRITISH COLUMBIA LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK: 2017 EDITION

29 APPENDIX 1 Definitions JOB OPENINGS: A job opening is the addition of a new job position through economic growth or a position that needs to be filled due only to someone exiting the labour force permanently. It is the sum of expansion and replacement job openings. The concept of job openings is different from the concept of job postings because job openings do not include any form of turnover. If someone leaves a position to take another position in the same or a different occupation, this is not a job opening. EXPANSION JOB OPENINGS: New job openings that arise due to economic growth between 2017 and REPLACEMENT JOB OPENINGS: Job openings to fill positions that are generated by a permanent exit from the labour force from 2017 to This includes exits due to retirements, illness, disabilities, deaths and other reasons. NEW ENTRANTS: Persons aged entering the labour force for the first time after leaving the education system. NET IN-MIGRATION: Net of in-migration from outside of B.C. and out-migration from B.C. This can be migration from other jurisdictions in Canada or from international sources. NET INTERNATIONAL IN-MIGRATION: Net in-migration from international sources. NET INTERPROVINCIAL IN-MIGRATION: Net in-migration from other jurisdictions in Canada. CHANGE IN LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION: This concept captures other types of mobility in the labour market, such as people coming back to the labour force after a period of absence, for the province as a whole. This concept is also called Net other in-mobility at the occupational level. LABOUR DEMAND: The number of employed plus vacant positions. LABOUR SUPPLY: The labour force, including those who are employed and those who are actively looking for a job. BRITISH COLUMBIA LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK: 2017 EDITION 25

30 APPENDIX 2 Regional Outlook Detail VANCOUVER ISLAND/COAST The region encompasses all of Vancouver Island and the coastal region spanning from Powell River to Bella Coola and Bella Bella in the north. Despite being British Columbia s second-most populated region, much of this pristine area remains rural and sparsely settled. The vast majority of residents live in the capital region around Victoria and in the mid-island region stretching from Nanaimo north to Campbell River. Given, in part, the temperate coastal climate, the region is known to be popular among retirees. The labour market reflects this with a population older than the province overall and labour force participation the second lowest among regions (58.8% in ). About 15% of B.C. s workers are employed in the Vancouver Island/Coast region, with the unemployment rate in (5.8 percent) just slightly below the B.C. average. The main sources of employment are in the Health Care and Social Assistance, Wholesale and Retail Trade, and the Construction sectors. Over the ten year forecast horizon, the Vancouver Island/ Coast economic region is expected to have 133,800 job openings, of which 77 percent will replace retiring workers. Employment is projected to increase by an annual average of 0.8 percent, slower than the provincial average. Vancouver Island/ Coast Employment in the region remains heavily weighted toward services-based employment and this is reflected in the top ten industries with forecast job openings through The ten industries forecast to have the largest number of job openings in the region: INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT GROWTH (AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATE) EXPANSION REPLACEMENT JOB OPENINGS Construction 35, % -0.8% -0.1% ,790 9,130 Ambulatory health care services 18, % 1.6% 1.8% 3,580 5,240 8,820 Other Retail Trade 34, % 0.0% 0.3% 850 7,710 8,560 Other Private Services 16, % 1.6% 1.7% 3,050 4,660 7,710 Nursing and residential care facilities 9, % 3.1% 3.1% 3,630 3,010 6,640 Hospitals 19, % 0.5% 0.6% 1,180 5,450 6,630 Food services and drinking places 21, % 1.0% 1.4% 3,060 3,150 6,210 Elementary and secondary schools 14, % 0.3% 0.7% 990 4,650 5,650 Computer Systems Design and Related Services 8, % 2.6% 2.8% 2,730 2,700 5,430 Provincial and territorial public administration 13, % 0.8% 0.7% 900 4,480 5, BRITISH COLUMBIA LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK: 2017 EDITION

31 THE OCCUPATIONS WITH THE LARGEST NUMBER OF JOB OPENINGS IN THE REGION ARE: SKILL LEVEL NOC OCCUPATION EMPLOYMENT 2017 EXPANSION REPLACEMENT JOB OPENINGS Retail and wholesale trade managers 9, ,440 3,960 LEVEL 0: Usually requiring 0631 Restaurant and food service managers 2, ,230 combination of Insurance, real estate and financial 0121 education and brokerage managers 1, ,070 experience 0711 Construction managers 2, Accommodation service managers 1, Registered nurses and registered LEVEL A: ,890 1,290 3,250 4,540 psychiatric nurses Usually requiring 4032 Elementary school and kindergarten teachers 5, ,580 1,920 a Bachelor's, Graduate or First 2171 Information systems analysts and consultants 3, ,650 Professional Degree 4011 University professors and lecturers 2, , Computer programmers and interactive media developers 2, ,280 LEVEL B: Usually requiring diploma, certificate or apprenticeship training LEVEL C: Usually requiring secondary school and/or occupationspecific training LEVEL D: Usually requiring on-the-job training The top industries in terms of job openings reflects the size of an industry within a region; looking at the fastest growing industries highlights areas where jobs are emerging. The region s fastest growth is expected to be in: Nursing and Residential Care Facilities, Computer Systems Design and Related Services as well as Other Transportation industries. This reflects the region s older population but also an anticipated overspill of younger workers coming from the lower mainland area....fastest growth is expected to be in: Nursing and Residential Care Facilities, Computer Systems Design and Related Services as well as Other Transportation industries Administrative officers 5, ,800 3, Administrative assistants 6, ,890 2, Social and community service workers 4, ,450 2, Cooks 5, , Carpenters 6, ,700 1, Retail salespersons 15, ,050 3, Nurse aides, orderlies and patient service associates 6, ,020 3, General office support workers 5, ,450 1, Receptionists 4, ,160 1, Home support workers, housekeepers and related occupations 3, ,120 1, Food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related support occupations 8, , Janitors, caretakers and building superintendents 4, ,420 1, Light duty cleaners 5, ,240 1, Cashiers 6, , Landscaping and grounds maintenance labourers 3, BRITISH COLUMBIA LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK: 2017 EDITION 27

32 MAINLAND/SOUTHWEST B.C. s smallest region geographically is also its most populous and most economically significant. The Mainland/Southwest comprises Metro Vancouver on the southwest tip, through the Fraser Valley to Hope, and north to Lillooet. The Mainland/Southwest is among B.C. s youngest regions demographically, with a participation rate (66.2% in ) above the provincial average. Home to 58 percent of B.C. s entire population, the region is where one-in-three British Columbians find themselves working. In, the unemployment rate hit 5.5%, the lowest of all regions and its lowest point since The largest industries, by employment size, are: Wholesale and Retail Trade, Health Care and Social Assistance, and Professional, Scientific and Technical Services. Over the next ten years, a total of 608,500 job openings are anticipated. About two-thirds of these job openings will replace exiting workers, with the remaining due to economic growth. Employment is forecast to increase 1.3 percent on average every year through 2027, the fastest growth rate of all economic regions and above the provincial average of 1.1 percent. Mainland/ Southwest Two-in-three job openings in all of B.C. over the next ten years will be based in Mainland/Southwest. The ten industries forecast to have the largest number of job openings in the region: INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT GROWTH (AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATE) EXPANSION REPLACEMENT JOB OPENINGS Other Retail Trade 136, % 0.7% 0.7% 9,210 29,850 39,070 Construction 131, % 0.5% 0.2% 2,040 33,900 35,940 Food services and drinking places 94, % 1.2% 1.5% 15,640 16,880 32,520 Computer Systems Design and Related Services 42, % 4.3% 3.9% 20,320 12,080 32,400 Ambulatory health care services 52, % 2.5% 2.4% 14,630 13,830 28,450 Other Private Services 69, % 1.2% 1.2% 8,640 17,590 26,230 Hospitals 62, % 1.6% 1.5% 10,420 15,760 26,180 Wholesale Trade 66, % 0.8% 0.9% 6,320 18,520 24,840 Other Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 62, % 1.7% 1.2% 8,220 15,280 23,500 Management of Companies and Enterprises & Administrative and Support 69, % 1.2% 0.8% 6,040 17,280 23, BRITISH COLUMBIA LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK: 2017 EDITION

33 The top industries in terms of job openings reflects the size of an industry within a region; looking at the fastest growing industries highlights areas where jobs are emerging. While the fastest growing industry is forecast to be Primary Metal Manufacturing, B.C. s high-tech influence is expected to continue gaining ground. Computer Systems Design and Related Services will be among the industries with accelerated growth through 2027, reflecting rising employment in technology-based businesses and attraction of tech companies to the province. Primary Metal Manufacturing... Computer Systems Design and Related Services will be among the industries with accelerated growth... THE OCCUPATIONS WITH THE LARGEST NUMBER OF JOB OPENINGS IN THE REGION ARE: SKILL LEVEL NOC OCCUPATION EMPLOYMENT 2017 EXPANSION REPLACEMENT JOB OPENINGS LEVEL 0: 0621 Retail and wholesale trade managers 35,490 3,210 12,230 15,440 Usually requiring 0631 Restaurant and food service managers 11,960 1,950 3,410 5,350 combination of Insurance, real estate and financial education and 0121 brokerage managers 8,660 1,110 3,860 4,970 experience 0711 Construction managers 10, ,840 4, Corporate sales managers 8, ,180 4,120 Registered nurses and registered LEVEL A: ,680 6,820 8,320 15,140 psychiatric nurses Usually requiring 1111 Financial auditors and accountants 22,950 3,200 5,940 9,140 a Bachelor's, Graduate or First 2171 Information systems analysts and consultants 13,240 4,110 3,530 7,640 Professional Degree Computer programmers and ,620 4,440 2,690 7,140 interactive media developers 4032 Elementary school and kindergarten teachers 18, ,350 6, Administrative officers 21,560 2,990 9,170 12,160 LEVEL B: Usually requiring 1241 Administrative assistants 22,180 2,880 6,470 9,350 diploma, certificate 6322 Cooks 20,910 3,810 4,080 7,890 or apprenticeship 4212 Social and community service workers 13,350 2,920 3,650 6,560 training 4214 Early childhood educators and assistants 15,060 2,190 3,860 6,050 LEVEL C: Usually requiring secondary school and/or occupationspecific training LEVEL D: Usually requiring on-the-job training 6421 Retail salespersons 65,470 5,550 11,460 17, Nurse aides, orderlies and patient service associates 17,640 6,020 4,810 10, Transport truck drivers 25,690 2,790 6,210 9, General office support workers 21,930 2,900 5,400 8, Receptionists 18,620 3,520 3,950 7, Food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related support occupations 31,120 5,500 4,080 9, Light duty cleaners 16,960 2,800 4,320 7, Janitors, caretakers and building superintendents 16,360 1,830 4,500 6, Cashiers 25,840 2,670 3,440 6, Store shelf stockers, clerks and order fillers 12, ,930 2,850 BRITISH COLUMBIA LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK: 2017 EDITION 29

34 THOMPSON-OKANAGAN Located in B.C. s southern interior, the Thompson-Okanagan region s population is concentrated around the major urban centres of Kelowna and Kamloops. However the region spans as far east as Golden and Revelstoke in the Columbia region, as far west as Lytton, and south through the Okanagan Valley to Osoyoos and the Canada/U.S. border. The region is home to 12 percent of B.C. residents who, on average, are older compared to the rest of the province. As a result, labour force participation was 61.7 percent in, below the provincial average (64.4 percent). One in ten B.C. workers calls Thompson- Okanagan home, although there is some evidence that many find employment in other regions and in the Alberta oil patch. As a result, the unemployment rate in was 7.7 percent, sitting above B.C. s 6.0 percent average. In terms of employment size, the Thompson-Okanagan s top industries are Wholesale and Retail Trades, Health Care and Social Assistance and Construction. Over the ten year forecast period, employment is anticipated to increase 1.0 percent on average each year. Through 2027, 96,100 job openings are expected, of which 74 percent will Thompson- Okanagan replace retirees and 26 percent will be generated by economic growth. The ten industries forecast to have the largest number of job openings in the region: INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT GROWTH (AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATE) EXPANSION REPLACEMENT JOB OPENINGS Other Retail Trade 25, % 0.7% 1.1% 2,960 6,550 9,510 Construction 25, % 0.2% 0.2% 260 6,910 7,170 Food services and drinking places 16, % 0.9% 1.6% 2,830 2,860 5,690 Nursing and residential care facilities 8, % 2.7% 2.9% 2,980 2,520 5,500 Other Private Services 12, % 1.1% 1.0% 1,350 3,370 4,720 Management of Companies and Enterprises & Administrative and Support 9, % 1.5% 1.7% 1,720 2,490 4,200 Elementary and secondary schools 8, % 0.8% 1.0% 930 2,900 3,830 Other Manufacturing 4, % 2.6% 3.4% 1,910 1,680 3,590 Other Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 8, % 1.5% 1.4% 1,220 2,370 3,590 Ambulatory health care services 9, % 0.5% 0.8% 760 2,600 3, BRITISH COLUMBIA LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK: 2017 EDITION

35 The top industries in terms of job openings reflects the size of an industry within a region; looking at the fastest growing industries highlights areas where jobs are emerging. The fastest growing industries through 2027 are anticipated to be in: Other Manufacturing; Nursing and Residential Care Facilities; and Real Estate Rental and Leasing. The fastest growing industries through Other Manufacturing; Nursing and Residential Care Facilities; and Real Estate Rental and Leasing. THE OCCUPATIONS WITH THE LARGEST NUMBER OF JOB OPENINGS IN THE REGION ARE: SKILL LEVEL NOC OCCUPATION EMPLOYMENT 2017 EXPANSION REPLACEMENT JOB OPENINGS LEVEL 0: 0621 Retail and wholesale trade managers 6, ,710 3,500 Usually requiring 0631 Restaurant and food service managers 2, ,220 combination of 0821 Managers in agriculture 2, ,070 1,140 education and 0711 Construction managers 1, experience Insurance, real estate and financial brokerage managers LEVEL A: Usually requiring a Bachelor's, Graduate or First Professional Degree LEVEL B: Usually requiring diploma, certificate or apprenticeship training LEVEL C: Usually requiring secondary school and/or occupationspecific training LEVEL D: Usually requiring on-the-job training 3012 Registered nurses and registered psychiatric nurses 5, ,550 2, Elementary school and kindergarten teachers 3, , Financial auditors and accountants 2, Secondary school teachers 2, Other financial officers 1, Administrative officers 4, ,990 2, Administrative assistants 4, ,330 1, Accounting technicians and bookkeepers 3, ,130 1, Cooks 4, , Social and community service workers 2, , Retail salespersons 11,570 1,240 2,410 3, Nurse aides, orderlies and patient service associates 4,380 1,130 1,230 2, Transport truck drivers 5, ,560 1, General office support workers 3, , Receptionists 3, , Food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related support occupations 6,690 1, , Light duty cleaners 4, ,140 1, Janitors, caretakers and building superintendents 3, ,000 1, Cashiers 4, , Landscaping and grounds maintenance labourers 2, BRITISH COLUMBIA LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK: 2017 EDITION 31

36 KOOTENAY The Kootenay economic region, in B.C. s southeast corner is the second smallest region in land size, covering an area from Grand Forks in the west to the Rockies in the east, and encompassing the communities of Castlegar, Nelson and Cranbrook. With three percent of the province s workforce, the region is also comparatively older than the rest of B.C. and less likely to participate in the labour market. In, the Kootenay region had the second lowest participation rate in the B.C. at 59.9 percent (4.5 points lower than the provincial average). The unemployment rate was also the second highest in the province in at eight percent. The region s major employers reflect both demographics and a resource rich landscape. The major industries in terms of employment size are: Health Care and Social Assistance, Wholesale and Retail Trades and Forestry, Fishing, Mining, Quarrying, Oil and Gas. Over the Outlook s forecast period to 2027, the Kootenay region is expected to have 24,600 job openings, with 21 percent generated through economic growth, and the rest due to retirements. Employment is forecast to increase at an average of 0.8 percent each year to 2027, below the provincial rate of 1.1 percent. Kootenay The ten industries forecast to have the largest number of job openings in the region: INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT GROWTH (AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATE) EXPANSION REPLACEMENT JOB OPENINGS Other Retail Trade 7, % 0.6% 1.1% 820 1,890 2,710 Construction 7, % -1.0% 0.4% 250 2,070 2,320 Nursing and residential care facilities 2, % 3.4% 3.0% ,440 Other Private Services 3, % 0.9% 1.4% ,390 Other Manufacturing 1, % 4.2% 3.9% ,330 Mining 4, % 0.3% -0.1% ,420 1,320 Food services and drinking places 3, % 0.8% 1.7% ,110 Elementary and secondary schools 3, % -0.1% 0.1% 30 1,010 1,030 Ambulatory health care services 2, % 1.3% 1.0% Hospitals 2, % 0.8% 0.5% BRITISH COLUMBIA LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK: 2017 EDITION

37 The top industries in terms of job openings reflects the size of an industry within a region; looking at the fastest growing industries highlights areas where jobs are emerging. The industries with the fastest employment growth rate over the next ten years are: Other Manufacturing, Nursing and Residential Care Facilities and Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers....the fastest employment growth rate over the next ten years...other Manufacturing, Nursing and Residential Care Facilities and Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers. THE OCCUPATIONS WITH THE LARGEST NUMBER OF JOB OPENINGS IN THE REGION ARE: SKILL LEVEL NOC OCCUPATION EMPLOYMENT 2017 LEVEL 0: Usually requiring combination of education and experience LEVEL A: Usually requiring a Bachelor's, Graduate or First Professional Degree LEVEL B: Usually requiring diploma, certificate or apprenticeship training LEVEL C: Usually requiring secondary school and/or occupationspecific training LEVEL D: Usually requiring on-the-job training EXPANSION REPLACEMENT JOB OPENINGS Retail and wholesale trade managers 2, , Restaurant and food service managers Construction managers Manufacturing managers Insurance, real estate and financial brokerage managers Registered nurses and registered psychiatric nurses 1, Elementary school and kindergarten teachers College and other vocational instructors Secondary school teachers Financial auditors and accountants Administrative officers Administrative assistants 1, Carpenters 1, Social and community service workers Accounting technicians and bookkeepers Retail salespersons 2, Nurse aides, orderlies and patient service associates 1, Transport truck drivers 2, Heavy equipment operators (except crane) 1, Elementary and secondary school teacher assistants Cashiers 1, Light duty cleaners 1, Janitors, caretakers and building superintendents 1, Food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related support occupations 1, Store shelf stockers, clerks and order fillers BRITISH COLUMBIA LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK: 2017 EDITION 33

38 CARIBOO Situated in the geographic centre of the province, the Cariboo is the third largest of B.C. s economic regions, encompassing Prince George and communities along highway 97 from 100 Mile House, Williams Lake and Quesnel, north to Mackenzie at the region s northernmost point. The Cariboo s population (3.3 percent of B.C. residents) is younger than the provincial average and it has the third highest participation rate (66.5 percent in ). The unemployment rate in was 7.4 percent, the third highest in B.C., well above the 6.0 percent provincial average. The region s largest employment industries are: Wholesale and Retail Trade, Manufacturing and Health Care and Social Assistance. Over the Outlook forecast period to 2027, the Cariboo is expected to see 25,900 job openings. Only 10 percent of these are forecast to be generated through economic growth, with the vast majority due to retirements. Employment is expected to grow at an average of 0.4 percent annually, below the provincial rate of 1.1 percent. The ten industries forecast to have the largest number of job openings in the region: Cariboo INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT GROWTH (AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATE) EXPANSION REPLACEMENT JOB OPENINGS Other Retail Trade 7, % 0.3% 0.7% 590 1,720 2,310 Other Manufacturing % 7.5% 8.8% 1, ,700 Other Private Services 4, % 0.6% 0.8% 320 1,040 1,360 Elementary and secondary schools 4, % -0.5% -0.3% ,470 1,310 Management of Companies and Enterprises and Administrative and Support 2, % 1.6% 2.1% ,250 Hospitals 3, % 0.4% 0.1% 50 1,120 1,170 Wood product manufacturing 5, % -1.4% -1.3% ,930 1,160 Nursing and residential care facilities 1, % 2.9% 2.7% ,020 Food services and drinking places 4, % 0.8% 0.7% Ambulatory health care services 1, % 1.9% 1.8% BRITISH COLUMBIA LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK: 2017 EDITION

39 The top industries in terms of job openings reflects the size of an industry within a region; looking at the fastest growing industries highlights areas where jobs are emerging. To understand employment expansion in the region, it is best to focus on the fastest growing industries in terms of employment. During the next ten years, these are expected to be in: Other Manufacturing, Nursing and Residential Care Facilities and Management of Companies and Enterprises and Administration and Support....the fastest growing industries are... Other Manufacturing, Nursing and Residential Care Facilities and Management of Companies and Enterprises and Administration and Support. THE OCCUPATIONS WITH THE LARGEST NUMBER OF JOB OPENINGS IN THE REGION ARE: SKILL LEVEL NOC OCCUPATION EMPLOYMENT 2017 LEVEL 0: Usually requiring combination of education and experience LEVEL A: Usually requiring a Bachelor's, Graduate or First Professional Degree LEVEL B: Usually requiring diploma, certificate or apprenticeship training LEVEL C: Usually requiring secondary school and/or occupationspecific training LEVEL D: Usually requiring on-the-job training EXPANSION REPLACEMENT JOB OPENINGS Retail and wholesale trade managers 1, Managers in agriculture Restaurant and food service managers Insurance, real estate and financial brokerage managers Manufacturing managers Registered nurses and registered psychiatric nurses 1, Elementary school and kindergarten teachers 1, Secondary school teachers Financial auditors and accountants College and other vocational instructors Administrative officers 1, Social and community service workers 1, Accounting technicians and bookkeepers 1, Administrative assistants 1, Cooks 1, Transport truck drivers 2, Retail salespersons 3, Nurse aides, orderlies and patient service associates 1, General office support workers Receptionists Janitors, caretakers and building superintendents 1, Light duty cleaners 1, Cashiers 1, Food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related support occupations 1, Store shelf stockers, clerks and order fillers BRITISH COLUMBIA LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK: 2017 EDITION 35

40 NORTHEAST Nestled along the Alberta, Northwest and Yukon Territory boundaries, B.C. s Northeast economic region encompasses the communities of Dawson Creek, Fort St. John and Fort Nelson. Northeast As one of the largest of B.C. s seven regions, it also has one of the lowest population densities in the province, with only 3 percent of B.C. residents living here and 1.6 percent of B.C. s employed workers. However, in contrast to the B.C. average, the population in the Northeast is younger. Partially as a result, it is no surprise the region has the province s highest participation rate, at 76 percent. As the epicentre of B.C. s oil and gas operations, the Northeast remains very much a resource-based economy, with the main sources of employment in the region within Forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas industry, Wholesale and retail trade and Construction. In part due to continued lower commodity prices, the unemployment rate in (9.7 percent), was well above the B.C. average (6.0 percent). A modest recovery in prices over the next few years is factored into the forecast. Over the ten year forecast horizon, Northeast employment is forecast to increase at an average of 1.0 percent annually. In all, 16,400 job openings are expected in the region to Only 27 percent are expected to come from economic growth and the rest are to replace retired workers. The ten industries forecast to have the largest number of job openings in the region: INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT GROWTH (AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATE) EXPANSION REPLACEMENT JOB OPENINGS Construction 4, % -0.5% 1.9% 1,010 1,570 2,580 Other Retail Trade 4, % 1.1% 0.6% ,130 Other Private Services 3, % 0.7% 0.9% ,130 Support activities for mining and oil and gas extraction 2, % -0.4% 1.5% ,090 Truck transportation 2, % 1.1% 0.9% Oil and gas extraction 1, % 0.4% 1.6% Food services and drinking places 2, % 1.3% 1.3% Elementary and secondary schools 1, % 0.2% 0.4% Wholesale Trade 1, % 1.1% 1.5% Management of Companies and Enterprises & Administrative and Support 1, % 1.4% 1.7% BRITISH COLUMBIA LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK: 2017 EDITION

41 The top industries in terms of job openings reflects the size of an industry within a region; looking at the fastest growing industries highlights areas where jobs are emerging. In terms of employment growth, the following three industries are anticipated experience the fastest growth: Nursing and Residential Care Facilities, Other Education and Ambulatory Health Care Services....three industries are anticipated to experience the fastest growth: Nursing and Residential Care Facilities, Other Education and Ambulatory Health Care Services. THE OCCUPATIONS WITH THE LARGEST NUMBER OF JOB OPENINGS IN THE REGION ARE: SKILL LEVEL NOC OCCUPATION EMPLOYMENT 2017 LEVEL 0: Usually requiring combination of education and experience LEVEL A: Usually requiring a Bachelor's, Graduate or First Professional Degree LEVEL B: Usually requiring diploma, certificate or apprenticeship training LEVEL C: Usually requiring secondary school and/or occupationspecific training LEVEL D: Usually requiring on-the-job training EXPANSION REPLACEMENT JOB OPENINGS Retail and wholesale trade managers 1, Managers in agriculture Construction managers Restaurant and food service managers Managers in natural resources production and fishing Registered nurses and registered psychiatric nurses Elementary school and kindergarten teachers College and other vocational instructors Secondary school teachers Land surveyors Petroleum, gas and chemical process operators 1, Administrative officers Accounting technicians and bookkeepers 1, Construction millwrights and industrial mechanics Contractors and supervisors, oil and gas drilling and services Transport truck drivers 2, , Heavy equipment operators (except crane) Retail salespersons 1, Nurse aides, orderlies and patient service associates Receptionists Janitors, caretakers and building superintendents Construction trades helpers and labourers Cashiers 1, Food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related support occupations Light duty cleaners BRITISH COLUMBIA LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK: 2017 EDITION 37

42 NORTH COAST/NECHAKO Located at the northwestern corner of British Columbia, the two regions North Coast and Nechako are combined together into one region, North Coast/Nechako. Bordering the Yukon, Alaska and the Pacific coast, the region encompasses Haida Gwaii, the cities of Prince Rupert inland to Terrace, Nisga'a Nation, Smithers, Houston and as far east as Vanderhoof. The economic region is large in terms of land size, yet the population is one of the smallest among regions in B.C., with about three percent of B.C. s population living here, leading to the lowest population density of any region. Yet, the region has the youngest population in the province. About 1.8 percent of B.C. workers live in the region. The unemployment rate was the third highest in B.C. in (at 7.7 percent). Given the young population, the economic region had the second highest participation rate among region in at 68.0 percent, higher than the provincial average. The North Coast/Nechako s largest industries in terms of employment size are: Wholesale and retail trade, North Coast/ Nechako Health care and social assistance and Manufacturing. Employment in the region is forecast to increase each year by 0.4 percent on average until 2027, lower than the provincial average. Over the next 10 years to 2027, a total of 11,700 job openings are anticipated, of which virtually all (97 percent) are needed to replace retiring workers. The ten industries forecast to have the largest number of job openings in the region: INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT GROWTH (AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATE) EXPANSION REPLACEMENT JOB OPENINGS Construction 3, % 0.7% 0.8% ,190 Other Retail Trade 6, % -0.6% -0.2% ,260 1,080 Other Private Services 2, % 0.8% 0.8% Ambulatory health care services 1, % 2.4% 2.6% Food services and drinking places 2, % 1.1% 1.3% Hospitals 1, % 0.3% 0.4% Elementary and secondary schools 2, % -0.8% -0.9% Other Manufacturing % 2.0% 5.4% Mining % 7.3% 7.9% Social assistance 1, % 0.3% 0.5% BRITISH COLUMBIA LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK: 2017 EDITION

43 The top industries in terms of job openings reflects the size of an industry within a region; looking at the fastest growing industries highlights areas where jobs are emerging. However, these industries are not necessarily expanding the fastest. Over the next ten years, the following three industries are forecasted to grow the fastest: Mining, Support Activities for Mining and Oil and Gas Extraction, and Other Manufacturing.... three industries are forecasted to grow the fastest: Mining, Support Activities for Mining and Oil and Gas Extraction, and Other Manufacturing. THE OCCUPATIONS WITH THE LARGEST NUMBER OF JOB OPENINGS IN THE REGION ARE: SKILL LEVEL NOC OCCUPATION EMPLOYMENT 2017 LEVEL 0: Usually requiring combination of education and experience LEVEL A: Usually requiring a Bachelor's, Graduate or First Professional Degree LEVEL B: Usually requiring diploma, certificate or apprenticeship training LEVEL C: Usually requiring secondary school and/or occupationspecific training LEVEL D: Usually requiring on-the-job training EXPANSION REPLACEMENT JOB OPENINGS Retail and wholesale trade managers 1, Restaurant and food service managers Construction managers Manufacturing managers Managers in agriculture Registered nurses and registered psychiatric nurses College and other vocational instructors Elementary school and kindergarten teachers Secondary school teachers Forestry professionals Administrative officers Social and community service workers Cooks Accounting technicians and bookkeepers Carpenters Transport truck drivers 1, Retail salespersons 2, Heavy equipment operators (except crane) Nurse aides, orderlies and patient service associates Elementary and secondary school teacher assistants Janitors, caretakers and building superintendents Construction trades helpers and labourers Food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related support occupations 1, Light duty cleaners Cashiers 1, BRITISH COLUMBIA LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK: 2017 EDITION 39

44 APPENDIX 3 Detailed Industry Forecast EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT GROWTH (AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATE) EXPANSION REPLACEMENT TOTAL JOB OPENINGS INDUSTRY All Industries 2,408, % 1.1% 1.1% 277, , ,000 Agriculture and Fishing 22, % 0.2% 0.1% 100 6,100 6,200 Farms 21, % 0.3% 0.3% 400 5,800 6,200 Fishing, hunting and trapping 1, % -0.6% -2.0% Forestry and Logging with Support Activities 22, % -2.2% -1.7% -4,100 7,200 3,100 Forestry and logging 12, % -2.9% -2.5% -3,200 4,300 1,000 Support activities for agriculture and forestry 10, % -1.4% -0.8% ,900 2,000 Mining and Oil and Gas Extraction 25, % 0.9% 0.9% 2,500 8,100 10,500 Oil and gas extraction 3, % 0.4% 1.7% 700 1,400 2,100 Support activities for mining and oil and gas extraction 7, % 0.8% 0.5% 300 2,300 2,600 Mining 14, % 1.0% 1.0% 1,400 4,400 5,800 Utilities 14, % 0.5% 0.3% 300 4,200 4,500 Construction 214, % 0.1% 0.2% 2,000 57,100 59,100 Manufacturing 170, % 0.2% 0.2% 3,200 51,800 54,900 Food beverage and tobacco manufacturing 34, % 0.3% 0.3% 1,000 9,000 10,000 Wood product manufacturing 31, % -1.3% -1.6% -5,200 10,900 5,700 Paper manufacturing 8, % -2.1% -1.3% -1,200 3,300 2,100 Primary metal manufacturing 3, % -0.7% 1.8% 700 1,300 2,000 Fabricated metal product manufacturing 13, % 0.3% 0.2% 100 3,800 3,900 Machinery manufacturing 9, % 0.3% 0.2% 100 2,500 2,700 Transportation equipment manufacturing 10, % 0.3% 0.6% 600 2,800 3,400 Other Manufacturing 59, % 1.1% 1.1% 6,900 18,200 25,100 Wholesale Trade 88, % 0.7% 0.7% 6,500 24,800 31,300 Retail Trade 284, % 0.7% 0.8% 22,200 64,700 86,900 Motor vehicle and parts dealers 36, % 1.4% 1.4% 5,700 9,300 15,100 Health and personal care stores 25, % 0.7% 0.8% 2,000 5,500 7,500 Other Retail Trade 222, % 0.5% 0.7% 14,500 49,900 64,400 Transportation and Warehousing 141, % 1.4% 1.4% 21,500 40,900 62,400 Air transportation 15, % 2.0% 2.2% 3,800 4,400 8,200 Rail transportation 4, % 0.8% 1.1% 500 1,500 2,000 Water transportation 7, % 1.0% 1.0% 700 1,900 2,600 Truck transportation 39, % 1.1% 0.9% 3,700 10,800 14,400 Support activities for transportation 26, % 1.3% 1.5% 4,200 7,500 11,700 Postal service plus Couriers and messengers 16, % 0.8% 1.7% 3,000 5,600 8,600 Warehousing and storage 8, % 1.5% 1.8% 1,700 2,200 3,900 Other Transportation 23, % 2.0% 1.5% 3,900 7,000 10, BRITISH COLUMBIA LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK: 2017 EDITION

45 EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT GROWTH (AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATE) EXPANSION REPLACEMENT TOTAL JOB OPENINGS INDUSTRY Finance, Insurance and Real Estate 137, % 1.0% 1.0% 14,900 40,200 55,100 Insurance carriers and related activities 28, % 1.1% 1.0% 3,000 7,600 10,500 Finance 62, % 1.0% 0.7% 4,800 17,000 21,800 Real Estate Rental and Leasing 46, % 1.1% 1.4% 7,100 15,700 22,800 Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 205, % 2.2% 2.0% 45,800 56, ,400 Architectural, Engineering and Related Services 43, % 1.9% 1.7% 8,200 11,900 20,000 Computer Systems Design and Related Services 52, % 3.9% 3.6% 23,300 15,400 38,700 Management, Scientific and Technical Consulting Services 21, % 1.8% 2.2% 5,200 6,900 12,200 Other Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 87, % 1.3% 1.0% 9,000 22,500 31,600 Business, Building and Other Support Services 98, % 1.1% 0.9% 8,800 24,800 33,600 Educational Services 166, % 0.5% 0.7% 11,400 48,000 59,400 Elementary and secondary schools 89, % 0.2% 0.5% 4,100 27,200 31,300 Community colleges 13, % 0.8% 0.8% 1,100 4,200 5,300 Universities 36, % 0.7% 0.9% 3,500 9,300 12,900 Other Education 27, % 0.9% 0.9% 2,700 7,200 9,900 Health Care and Social Assistance 297, % 1.9% 1.8% 61,100 81, ,500 Ambulatory health care services 86, % 2.0% 2.1% 20,200 23,600 43,700 Hospitals 100, % 1.2% 1.1% 12,200 26,500 38,700 Nursing and residential care facilities 50, % 3.5% 3.5% 21,300 14,900 36,200 Social assistance 60, % 1.1% 1.2% 7,400 16,500 23,800 Information, Culture and Recreation 127, % 1.7% 1.8% 25,300 31,400 56,700 Publishing industries 14, % 1.5% 1.6% 2,600 4,200 6,700 Motion Picture and Video Industries 21, % 3.2% 3.1% 8,200 5,000 13,100 Telecommunications 14, % 0.5% 1.2% 1,900 4,200 6,000 Other Information & Culture 9, % 1.5% 1.3% 1,400 2,600 4,000 Performing arts, spectator sports and related industries 20, % 1.5% 1.4% 3,000 5,000 8,000 Amusement gambling and recreation industries 42, % 1.5% 1.6% 7,500 9,400 16,900 Other Amusement and recreation 4, % 1.4% 1.8% 800 1,100 1,900 Accommodation and Food Services 177, % 1.1% 1.5% 29,700 33,000 62,700 Accommodation services 31, % 1.1% 1.9% 6,600 8,200 14,700 Food services and drinking places 145, % 1.1% 1.5% 23,200 24,800 48,000 Other Private Services 111, % 1.2% 1.2% 14,300 29,000 43,400 Public Administration 101, % 1.0% 1.1% 11,500 30,800 42,300 Federal government public administration 36, % 1.0% 1.1% 4,200 11,200 15,400 Provincial and territorial public administration 28, % 0.9% 0.9% 2,600 8,900 11,500 Local, municipal and regional public administration 36, % 1.0% 1.2% 4,700 10,700 15,300 Note: components may not add to totals due to rounding BRITISH COLUMBIA LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK: 2017 EDITION 41

46 APPENDIX 4 High Demand Occupations List Methodology HOW IS THE LIST DEVELOPED? All 500 occupations are assessed and examined with a set of eight labour market indicators which are grouped into five categories employment, employment growth, job openings, unemployment, and excess supply. These indicators provide information on the current and expected future labour market conditions for each occupation. Each indicator is assigned a weight (10 percent or 20 percent) to reflect its relative impact on future labour market conditions. An opportunity indicator score is calculated for each occupation based on these indicators and weights. Opportunity Indicator Ranking Score Components INDICATORS AND WEIGHTS EMPLOYMENT Level of employment (20%) EMPLOYMENT GROWTH Forecasted percentage employment growth (20%) JOB OPENINGS Forecasted number of job openings (10%) Ratio of job openings to employment (10%) UNEMPLOYMENT Recent unemployment rate (10%) Forecasted unemployment rate (10%) Ratio of EI beneficiaries to employment (10%) EXCESS SUPPLY Ratio of the gap between supply and demand to employment (10%) DESCRIPTION Occupations with larger employment offer more opportunities to job seekers and have a bigger impact on the overall economy. Occupations with faster forecasted employment growth offer more new job opportunities to job seekers. Occupations with a larger number of job openings, both in terms of the level and the ratio to employment, offer more opportunities to job seekers and have a bigger impact on the overall economy. Occupations with a lower unemployment rate and a low ratio of Employment Insurance (EI) beneficiaries to employment offer more opportunities to job seekers. Occupations with lower excess supply (as a share of employment) offer more opportunities to job seekers. In the list selection process, a ranking of all 500 occupations is first produced based on the opportunity indicator score. Then, skill level D occupations are excluded as these occupations usually do not need post-secondary education and training. Health professions, because of their highly specialized nature, are presented separately, based on expert analysis from the B.C. Ministry of Health. The methodology used to develop the High Demand Occupations list this year is similar to what was used in the last two Outlook reports, with improved source data for recent unemployment rates and the ratio of EI beneficiaries to employment. 42 BRITISH COLUMBIA LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK: 2017 EDITION

47 CHANGES TO THIS YEAR S LIST In total, seven occupations from last year s list are removed from the High Demand Occupations list in this year s Labour Market Outlook. These are occupations that had been identified in previous forecast editions as trending down occupations based on the criteria of the opportunity score, other occupations are considered to offer greater opportunities Interior designers and interior decorators 6222 Retail and wholesale buyers 6321 Chefs 6322 Cooks 6332 Bakers 6541 Security guards and related security service occupations 7251 Plumbers To replace those occupations being removed, seven occupations that ranked sufficiently high according to the opportunity indicator are added to this year s High Demand Occupations list: 2271 Air pilots, flight engineers and flying instructors 4412 Home support workers, housekeepers and related occupations 0513 Recreation, sports and fitness program and service directors 6341 Hairstylists and barbers 5131 Producers, directors, choreographers and related occupations 4161 Natural and applied science policy researchers, consultants and program officers 7321 Automotive service technicians, truck and bus mechanics and mechanical repairers Another eight occupations that were on last year s High Demand Occupations list have been identified as moving to balance occupations. These are occupations with slower growth projections and or greater supply availability, as measured by unemployment rates and employment insurance utilization, than other occupations. These occupations will not be removed from the list, but they will be monitored and could be subject to removal from the list if these trends continue in subsequent updates. These eight occupations are: 1242 Legal administrative assistants 1411 General office support workers 1431 Accounting and related clerks 4012 Post-secondary teaching and research assistants 6211 Retail sales supervisors 6231 Insurance agents and brokers 6421 Retail salespersons 7302 Contractors and supervisors, heavy equipment operator crews BRITISH COLUMBIA LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK: 2017 EDITION 43

48 MOVING TO BALANCE SUCCESSFUL SUPPLY RESPONSE Opportunity lists from previous reports included a set of occupations that are particularly important to major non-residential construction projects across the province. These are a mix of trades, technical and management occupations and were added to previous lists to encourage the expansion of supply. As a result, labour market indicators show that supply has moved into balance with demand projections and there is less concern about potential absolute labour shortages for these occupations. For example, the combination of the current flow of ITA funded trades apprentices and migration from outside of B.C. is expected to meet projected labour demand over the next ten years and there is no longer a need to encourage expansion of training capacity. There is of course still a need to focus on enhancing specific skills within these occupations. Also, jobs that are more dependent on residential construction present greater opportunities, especially in the Lower Mainland, Southern Vancouver Island and the Okanagan. As a result, the following 27 occupations have been removed from the High Demand Occupation list: 0211 Engineering managers 0711 Construction managers 1225 Purchasing agents and officers 2132 Mechanical engineers 2133 Electrical and electronics engineers 2241 Electrical and electronics engineering technologists and technicians 2253 Drafting technologists and technicians 2263 Inspectors in public and environmental health and occupational health and safety 2264 Construction inspectors 7204 Contractors and supervisors, carpentry trades 7205 Contractors and supervisors, other construction trades, installers, repairers and servicers 7231 Machinists and machining and tooling inspectors 7233 Sheet metal workers 7237 Welders and related machine operators 7241 Electricians (except industrial and power system) 7242 Industrial electricians 7252 Steamfitters, pipefitters and sprinkler system installers 7253 Gas fitters 7271 Carpenters 7282 Concrete finishers 7311 Construction millwrights and industrial mechanics 7312 Heavy-duty equipment mechanics 7371 Crane operators 7452 Material handlers 7511 Transport truck drivers 7521 Heavy equipment operators (except crane) 9241 Power engineers and power systems operators 44 BRITISH COLUMBIA LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK: 2017 EDITION

49 HIGH DEMAND HEALTH PROFESSIONS This year, the B.C. Ministry of Health s top priority health professions are integrated into the High Demand Occupations list instead of being listed separately. These professions are listed below along with their assignment of the National Occupational Classification occupations. FAMILY PHYSICIANS (NOC 3112 General practitioners and family physicians) PSYCHIATRISTS (part of NOC 3111 Specialist physicians) GENERAL AND SPECIALTY REGISTERED NURSES (NOC 3012 Registered nurses and registered psychiatric nurses) DIAGNOSTIC MEDICAL SONOGRAPHERS (NOC 3216 Medical sonographers) PHYSIOTHERAPISTS (NOC 3142 Physiotherapists) OCCUPATIONAL THERAPISTS (NOC 3143 Occupational therapists) CARE AIDES/HEALTH CARE ASSISTANTS (NOC 3413 Nurse aides, orderlies and patient service associates) PERFUSIONISTS (part of NOC 3214 Respiratory therapists, clinical perfusionists and cardiopulmonary technologists) In collaboration with the B.C. Ministry of Health, these professions are included in the list, along with employment and wage information. Job openings forecasts are not available for these occupations. BRITISH COLUMBIA LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK: 2017 EDITION 45

50 APPENDIX 5 Labour Supply and Hiring Requirements ADDITIONS TO THE LABOUR SUPPLY INTEGRATION OF THE B.C. POST-SECONDARY MODEL FORECAST Every year, additional workers enter the B.C. labour market, although they are not always new to the labour market. In the Labour Market Outlook s supply composition model, the focus is on determining the trends of these additions to the labour supply. In particular, research done over the last eighteen months has allowed us to provide detailed supply composition projections for each of the 500 occupations. These projections also include, for the first time, the contribution that is projected to come from B.C. s postsecondary education system. About 50 percent of workers entering the labour market over the coming decade will do so after obtaining a postsecondary education or directly out of high school. This group is considered to be a New Entrant Supply (17 to 29 years old) in the supply composition model, with graduates in this category emerging from both public and private institutions. B.C. s 17 to 29 year old population is expected to decline on average 0.8 percent annually over the next ten years. In the first half of the forecast, the effect of the shrinking younger population on the post-secondary system s supply is counteracted by a higher penetration of students in postsecondary education institutions. However, ultimately the lower youth population accounts for a drop in New Entrant Supply in the second half of the forecast. As referenced earlier, forecasts call for more job openings than local applicants, with a continuing need for future employees from elsewhere in Canada and from other countries. The labour supply model captures both streams, as Net Interprovincial In-Migration and Net International In-Migration, with greater growth anticipated from this grouping during the second half of the forecast period. The labour supply model also recognizes workers re-entering the workforce because of a change in occupation or changed economics, making work options more attractive. These workers increase the labour force participation rate overall and is noted in the model as a Change in Labour Force Participation. Workers moving among occupations are referred to as Inter- Occupational Mobility. This category covers those that move occupations later in life (30 years old or more). In many cases this mobility is facilitated by additional post-secondary education and is called Inter-Occupational Mobility Public Post-Secondary Institutions (30+ years old), while others are changing occupations due to experience, promotions or short-term training that is not particularly dependent on post-secondary education. The figure below shows these major sources of supply additions. New Entrant supply from public post-secondary and all trades training institutions will continue to be the single largest source of labour supply. However, with the decline in youth population only partially offset by increasing enrollment rates, this supply will be trending slightly downward over the next ten years. It is important to appreciate that this applies across the whole post-secondary system. For example, the research universities might not be as affected by this downward trend than other parts of the sector. 46 BRITISH COLUMBIA LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK: 2017 EDITION

51 SOURCES OF LABOUR SUPPLY ADDITIONS, B.C., ANNUAL 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, New Entrant Supply (17 to 29 years old) Public Post-Secondary and All Trades Net International In-Migration (all ages) New Entrant Supply (17 to 29 years old) Other Interoccupational Mobility (30+ years old) Public Post-Secondary and All Trades Net Interprovincial In-Migration (all ages) The second largest flow of new supply will be net international in-migration across all ages and it will come close to the public post-secondary system new entrant supply by the end of the forecast period. Another component of new entrant supply is not tied directly to the public post-secondary system and these new entrants are grouped into the category New Entrant Supply (17 to 29 Years Old) Other. This includes a wide range of workers such as those who do not complete their public post-secondary studies, graduate from the private education system or who are able to join the labour force without any post-secondary training. The public post-secondary system has a strong role to play in fostering career growth and interoccupational mobility for workers 30 years old or greater. Using estimates from the B.C. Post- Secondary Supply Model, over 10,000 workers 30 years or older will obtain a public post-secondary credential that facilitates their move from one occupation to another. The table below displays the spread of the six main components of labour supply additions across the ten major occupational groups. Over the ten year forecast horizon, about 61 percent of the total additional labour supply is anticipated to have a post-secondary education from a B.C. public institution. This matches with the high numbers of job openings in higher skilled occupations over the decade. However, for Management occupations, a majority of the additional labour supply is anticipated to come from people moving from another occupation. Among major occupational groups, the inter-occupational mobility of workers into management occupations is the highest; the second and third largest group is expected to move to Business, Finance and Administration occupations and Occupations in Art, Culture, Recreation and Sport, respectively. BRITISH COLUMBIA LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK: 2017 EDITION 47

52 SOURCES OF LABOUR SUPPLY ADDITIONS BY MAJOR OCCUPATIONAL GROUP, B.C., NEW ENTRANT SUPPLY (17 TO 29 YEARS OLD) NOC DESCRIPTION PUBLIC POST- SECONDARY & ALL TRADES (1) OTHER (2) NET IN-MIGRATION (ALL AGES) INTERNATIONAL INTERPROVINCIAL INTER-OCCUPATIONAL MOBILITY/ CHANGE IN LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION (30+ YEARS OLD) PUBLIC POST-SECONDARY & ALL TRADES (3) OTHER (4) TOTAL SUPPLY ADDITIONS 0 Management occupations 13, ,600 2,200 9,000 89, ,900 1 Business, finance and administration occupations 50,400 21,500 31,300 17,600 14,600 14, ,800 2 Natural and applied sciences and related occupations 29,100 12,300 25,200 7,000 8,300-7,100 74,800 3 Health occupations 27,400 12,800 11,600 12,400 15,500-1,600 78,100 4 Occupations in education, law and social, community 46,400 15,200 19,900 14,200 30,600-24, ,100 and government services 5 Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport 13,000 5,700 7,100 2,200 3,000 1,300 32,300 6 Sales and service occupations 52,600 49,000 76,600 12,600 7,400-20, ,200 7 Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations 50,200 25,000 26,900 8,800 20,200-17, ,300 8 Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations 2,700 3,600 9, ,300 11,800 9 Occupations in manufacturing and utilities 2,300 5,100 18,900 3, ,800 26,000 ALL OCCUPATIONS 288, , ,300 79, ,000 26, ,300 Adjustment for Unknown/ suppressed occupations 33,000-33,000 13,800 public post-secondary PSSM Total 321, , ,800 Note: 1. PSSM is B.C. Post-Secondary Supply Model 2. Mainly public post-secondary, but some new entrants from private institutions included. 3. This includes private institutions, post-secondary graduates for whom data is unavailable, post-secondary education non-completers, and new entrants that find employment without post-secondary education. 4. This is mainly public post-secondary, but there are some new entrants from private institutions 5. Other includes inter-occupational mobility facilitated by experience, short-term training, on-the-job training and/or private institution training. The sources of supply addition for each of the 500 occupations is provided in Appendix BRITISH COLUMBIA LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK: 2017 EDITION

53 HIRING REQUIREMENTS Between 2017 and 2027, the average rate of job openings as a share of employment is estimated at 3.6% annually. However, this does not reflect all hiring activities from a human resources perspective since job turnover is not considered in the definition of job opening. Job tenure measures the number of consecutive months or years a person has worked for the current (or most recent) employer 1. Information on job tenure can be used to estimate hiring requirements. The hiring requirement rate is defined as the number of hirings in a year (job tenure of 12 months or less) divided by average employment during the year. Based on job tenure data over the past five years (between 2012 and in British Columbia), the hiring requirement rate in the province is estimated at around 20 percent which is over five times of the rate of job openings. Among major occupational groups, Management Occupations have the lowest hiring requirement rate at 9.6%, while Sales and Service Occupations have the highest hiring requirement rate at 29.0%, as show in the table below. HIRING RATE BY MAJOR OCCUPATIONAL GROUP, B.C., YEAR AVERAGE OCCUPATION GROUP HIRING REQUIREMENT RATE AVERAGE Management occupations 9.6% Business, finance and administration occupations 15.9% Natural and applied sciences and related occupations 17.8% Health occupations 12.2% Occupations in education, law and social, community and government services 15.2% Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport 21.9% Sales and service occupations 29.0% Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations 22.5% Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations 27.8% Occupations in manufacturing and utilities 18.9% All occupations 20.1% Source: Labour Force Survey, Statistics Canada and B.C. Labour Market Information Office calculations. 1 According to the Labour Force Survey, the employee may have worked in one or more occupations or in one or more locations or businesses and still be considered to have continuous tenure if the employer has not changed. But if a person has worked for the same employer over different periods of time, job tenure measures the most recent period of uninterrupted work. A temporary layoff does not constitute an interruption. BRITISH COLUMBIA LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK: 2017 EDITION 49

54 APPENDIX 6 Methodology and Assumptions MODEL STRUCTURE AND METHODOLOGY The B.C. labour market forecasting model is a labour market forecasting system to generate 10-year projections of labour demand and supply for 500 occupations for B.C. and its economic development regions. The forecasting system is composed of three sets of regional models: macroeconomic models, industry employment models and occupational models. The results of the regional models are rolled up to generate the provincial forecast. Macroeconomic Models: There are seven regional macroeconomic models. Two main sections in each regional macroeconomic model are economic and demographic components. The economic component generates industry employment estimates and forecast and ultimately links to the labour demand projections in the occupational model. The demographic component links to the labour supply projections in the occupational model. In each regional macroeconomic model, the entire regional economy is split into 15 high-level industries based on the 2007 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) structure. Industry Employment Models: There are seven regional industry employment models. For each region, the industry employment model converts employment for high-level industries from the macroeconomic model into employment estimates and forecast for 58 industries. Occupational Models: Produce labour demand projections for 500 occupations at the 4-digit NOC level for the seven development regions. Produce labour supply forecast for 500 occupations at the 4-digit NOC level for the four aggregated regions Mainland/Southwest, Vancouver Island/ Coast, Southeast (Thompson-Okanagan and Kootenay combined) and North (Cariboo, North Coast and Nechako, and Northeast combined). Three simplified steps illustrate how the B.C. labour market forecasting model works: Economic and industry growth as well as major projects drive labour demand in each region. Labour demand is determined by expected economic and industry performance, as well as labour productivity. Labour supply and its components of change are primarily driven by demographic shifts, economic performance and labour force participation. Labour market conditions for each occupation are determined by both supply of and demand for labour in that particular occupation. 50 BRITISH COLUMBIA LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK: 2017 EDITION

55 KEY ASSUMPTIONS The forecast is based on a comprehensive macroeconomic, industry and occupation modelling framework with a wide range of inter-relationships among the factors that affect the labour market. Most critical of these assumptions: Real Gross Domestic Product growth Productivity growth Employment growth Labour force participation Demographic growth: births, deaths, and in-migration Retirements GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, EMPLOYMENT AND PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH The B.C. economy recovered from the 2008/09 recession with relatively strong real GDP growth, which further accelerated in The figure shows how employment recovered at a much slower pace than real GDP until mid-2015, when employment started a period of strong growth that continued into REAL GDP AND EMPLOYMENT GROWTH, B.C., % growth 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% Real GDP Growth Employment Growth OUTLOOK FLASHBACK: How do new forecasts compare to the first B.C. Labour Market Outlook? While we are not quite yet at the end of the forecast period, we can evaluate performance so far. Real GDP average annual growth was forecast at 2.7% with 1.7% employment growth and 1.0% productivity growth. GDP growth ended up being higher at 2.9%, but with lower annual employment growth of 0.8% indicating much higher productivity growth of 2.1%. The 2017 edition of the Outlook is assuming this was a temporary expansion of productivity and that growth will average 0.9% close to historical trends. BRITISH COLUMBIA LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK: 2017 EDITION 51

56 The large gap between real GDP and employment growth from indicates B.C. employers were able to increase sales without a matching increase in employment. In other words, the productivity of B.C. workers, measured as real GDP per worker, increased significantly. During the 2009 to 2015 period, labour productivity grew at an annual pace of 2.0% nearly double the 1.1% growth experienced over the previous 14 years (1995 to 2009). However, in, real GDP growth hit 3.7% 2 and employment increased by 3.2% indicating significantly lower productivity growth (0.5%). The Outlook s forecast factors in differences in all industry groups and assumes an overall return to longer-term productivity trends of 0.9% per year, with average GDP growth of 2.0% and employment growth of 1.1%. LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION The labour force participation rate, the share of the population 15 years and older in the labour force, is an important component of the labour supply forecast. It represents a wide range of factors in an individual s choice or ability to be part of the labour force. For example, younger people are more likely to attend school full-time and therefore likely to have lower participation rates. Similarly, people approaching retirement will tend to have lower participation rates. The bold line in the figure below represents what the participation rate would be if consistent with historically average levels. The downward slope to this trend rate is primarily driven by the baby boom generation steadily reaching an age at which labour force participation rates drop. Notably, labour force participation is also affected by economic growth, wages, costs of child care, education and training, among other factors. The labour force participation rate used in the Outlook s forecast takes these other factors into account and is shown in the lighter line in the figure. B.C. LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE FORECAST Used in forecast Trend (Fixed rate by age segment) As measured by GDP by Industry. 52 BRITISH COLUMBIA LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK: 2017 EDITION

57 In 2007 and 2008, the participation rate rose in response to strong economic growth that pulled people into the workforce. Similarly, the financial crisis and slow recovery resulted in more people leaving the labour force and the participation rate fell below the trend rate. Since 2015, the participation rate has been increasing in line with stronger economic growth. Part of the increase also appears to be older workers delaying retirement. Over the next ten years, it is assumed that continued economic growth, tighter labour supply-demand balance and continued skills training and employment support programs will keep the participation rate above the trend rate. DEMOGRAPHIC GROWTH A fundamental constraint in the forecast is the slowing down of population growth. Furthermore, in the context of B.C. resident new entrant supply filling only 48 percent of job openings over the next ten years, the demographic assumptions are important to understand. KEY SOURCES OF DEMOGRAPHIC GROWTH IN BRITISH COLUMBIA Births minus Deaths Net international migration Net interprovincial migration The figure above shows the three main components of demographic growth. While the number of births per year is forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 1.0% over the next ten years, the number of deaths is forecast to grow at a faster rate of 1.5%. Therefore, the natural rate of increase (births minus deaths) will decline over the forecast period. Net international migration, defined as immigration minus emigration plus net change in nonpermanent residents, is forecast to increase gradually over the period to reach about 40,000 per year by This implies 2027 gross immigration levels of 47,000, emigration of nearly 14,600 and net change in non-permanent residents of about 8,200. In recent years, net interprovincial migration has been historically high because of the better economic performance of B.C. compared to other provinces, in particular Alberta and Ontario. With improved prospects in those provinces, the forecast assumes net interprovincial migration will return to 12,000 per year by These three main components of demographic growth result in B.C. s population growing at an annual rate of 1.2 percent over the forecast period. BRITISH COLUMBIA LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK: 2017 EDITION 53

58 REPLACEMENT DEMAND In this forecast, replacement demand represents 70 percent of job openings over the next ten years. These replacements are people permanently exiting the labour force due to retirements, layoff/redundancy, illness, disability or death. Of these components, the biggest and most uncertain factor is the rate of retirement. The Labour Market Outlook forecast uses average age and average age of retirement data by occupation to estimate the rate of replacements for each occupation. However, with evidence of rising participation rates among older workers and anecdotal evidence of more people delaying retirements than in the past, these forecasts are uncertain. A key factor is the retirement of the baby boom generation. When the first B.C. Labour Market Outlook forecast was released in 2009 the ten years to 2019 were forecast to be dominated by these retirements as the first wave of the baby boom generation, born in 1948, turned 65 in As the figure below shows, 65 to 69 year olds share of the under 70 population surged from about 5% in 2000 to about 8% today. This share is only forecast to increase by a little more than one percentage point over the next ten years. From this perspective, it could be argued that a large portion of the impact of the aging of the baby boom generation has already been absorbed. By 2027 the share will have peaked and will start to decline YEAR OLD AS A SHARE OF THE YEAR OLD POPULATION IN BRITISH COLUMBIA Per cent of year old population 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% BRITISH COLUMBIA LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK: 2017 EDITION