Policy Development and Implementation to Mitigate Effects of ENSO-Related Climate Variability

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1 Policy Development and Implementation to Mitigate Effects of ENSO-Related Climate Variability James Hansen International Research Institute for Climate Prediction

2 Big Picture PWhat do you know about El Niño and La Niña? PFrom a policy perspective, how would you view El Niño / La Niña? < a hazard? < a basis for prediction? < an opportunity?

3 Big Picture PENSO a contributor to climate variability PENSO a basis for predictability PPredictability associated with ENSO creates an opportunity to tailor decisions to expected conditions to either mitigate adverse conditions or take advantage of favorable conditions.

4 Big Picture What conditions must be in place in order for society to benefit?

5 Big Picture What conditions must be in place in order for society to benefit? Benefit arises when prediction of climate fluctuations leads to decisions that reduce vulnerability to impacts of climate variability

6 Big Picture Prerequisites to Beneficial Use climate predictability human vulnerability benefit potential decision capacity

7 Big Picture Prerequisites to Beneficial Use PVulnerability and motivation Forecast information is useful only when it addresses need that is real and perceived. Decision makers must be aware of climate risk and its impacts, and motivated to use forecasts to manage that risk.

8 Big Picture Prerequisites to Beneficial Use PVulnerability and motivation PDecision capacity Benefits are conditioned on existence and understanding of decision options that are sensitive to incremental information in forecasts, and compatible with goals and constraints.

9 Big Picture Prerequisites to Beneficial Use PVulnerability and motivation PDecision capacity PPredictability of climate Relevant components of climate variability must be predictable in relevant periods, at an appropriate scale, with sufficient skill and lead time for decisions.

10 PVulnerability and motivation PDecision capacity PPredictability of climate PCommunication Big Picture Prerequisites to Beneficial Use Use of climate forecasts requires that the right audience receives, understands, and correctly interprets the right information at the right time, in a form that can be applied to the decision problem(s).

11 Big Picture Prerequisites to Beneficial Use PVulnerability and motivation PDecision capacity PPredictability of climate PCommunication PInstitutions and policy Sustained operational use of forecasts requires institutional commitment institutions to provide forecast information and other support, and policies that support provision and use of climate forecasts.

12 Understanding Impacts: The Attribution Problem PSocietally-important impacts of ENSO? PDoes El Niño imply adverse impacts? PAre impacts of El Niño & La Niña opposite? PWould you expect impacts of the next El Niño to be the same as the last El Niño? PMagnitude, timing, spatial patterns, chaotic atmosphere affect local climatic responses. PWhat factors affect societal impacts?

13 Understanding Impacts: The Attribution Problem PProbabilistic thinking PAppropriate use of time-series data PStatistical hypothesis testing PBe open to surprise

14 Decisions: Managing Climatic Impacts Forecasts have no intrinsic value.

15 Decisions: Managing Climatic Impacts Forecasts have no intrinsic value. Improved outcomes associated with improved decisions do.

16 PAgriculture PFood insecurity early warning and response PWater resource management PEnergy PPublic health PHydrometeorological disaster management PEtc. Decisions: Managing Climatic Impacts Range of Sectors

17 Decisions: Managing Climatic Impacts PExample, agriculture: Range of Scales < Field-scale crop management < Farm-scale resource allocation < Community decisions, e.g., Florida potato farmers < Watershed-scale irrigation distribution < Sub-national scale food stock management < National requests for international food aid PIndividual response vs. public policy

18 Hazard vs. Development PWhat is more valuable, a skillful forecast of adverse or favorable climatic conditions? PTwo perspectives of applications: < Hazard; crisis response < Development; managing variability < Both address risk management

19 Hazard vs. Development The Hazard Perspective PENSO can improve hazard management < Refine probability of particular hazards < Improve lead time. E.g., food insecurity EWS < Advance mobilization of disaster response resources < Inform at-risk populations PDecisions tend to involve discrete thresholds and actions PValue comes from anticipating adverse conditions

20 Hazard vs. Development The Hazard Perspective PPotential for short-sightedness and inaction between infrequent events. < Crises favor inertia and political will to plan and prepare after the crisis. < Time and change of leadership favor neglect or abandonment of preparations. PCareful, committed planning and capacity building needed to counteract this tendency.

21 Hazard vs. Development The Development Perspective PClimate variability opposes development < Direct effects of adverse climatic events < Indirect effect of climatic uncertainty PDecisions sensitive to range of variability PExample, under-investment in soil fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa

22 The Communication Challenge PEffects of distorting forecast uncertainty PRisk aversion and subjective forecast value PDangers of both under-responding and overresponding to El Niño or La Niña PInstitutional dissemination channels PPerceived accountability of issuing agency PEnsuring equitable access to information

23 Where Does Public Policy Enter? PPolicy drives institutions. < Institutional mandate derives from policy. < Institutional effectiveness depends on allocation of public resources to the institutions and, more generally, to research and education. PPolicy constrains or enhances flexibility, therefore resilience, of decision makers. PPolicy influences overall economy. PPolicy influences risk.

24 Where Does Public Policy Enter? PCrisis response Institutional Mechanisms Crises tend to affect diverse populations and sectors, crossing traditional institutional mandates. Crisis response often calls for coordination or consolodation among diverse institutions.

25 Where Does Public Policy Enter? Institutional Mechanisms PCrisis response PDisaster preparedness Advanced preparation improves effectiveness and reduces cost of response, but requires ongoing political will, and solid probabilistic understanding of potential impacts.

26 Where Does Public Policy Enter? Institutional Mechanisms PCrisis response PDisaster preparedness PInstitutional support for prediction Primarily national meteorological services. Due to cost of ocean monitoring and dynamic prediction capacity, international institutions play a role. Met services must support meteorological observation networks.

27 Where Does Public Policy Enter? PCrisis response Institutional Mechanisms PDisaster preparedness PInstitutional support for prediction PInstitutional support for communication Goals should be timeliness, equitible access, relevance, and honest characterization of uncertainty. Options include internet, media, extension networks. Media low cost but few safeguards against abuse.

28 Where Does Public Policy Enter? Institutional Mechanisms PCrisis response PDisaster preparedness PInstitutional support for prediction PInstitutional support for communication PInstitutional support for response Key questions: Is information enough? Based in stakeholder or climate institutions? Existing or new institutions? Key challange: Gap between meteorological and stakeholder institutional networks.