World Retail Congress 2017 Day 1: Terry Lundgren, Sir Ian Cheshire and Jo Malone Offer Thoughts on the Retail Revolution

Transcription

1 World Retail Congress 2017 Day 1: Terry Lundgren, Sir Ian Cheshire and Jo Malone Offer Thoughts on the Retail Revolution The Fung Global Retail & Technology team is attending World Retail Congress 2017 in Dubai this week. Here are our top takeaways from day one of the conference: 1) Macy s Executive Chairman Terry Lundgren believes that exclusive product, exciting store experiences and online investment can save US department stores. 2) Sir Ian Cheshire, Chairman of Debenhams, noted that e-commerce is driving almost all retail growth, that experiences are what count with consumers and that retailers worldwide are seeing a winner-takes-all phenomenon. 3) Jo Malone, Founder of the Jo Malone and Jo Loves fragrance brands, thinks that retail is about theater, entertainment [and] circus, and that brands and retailers must create moments that consumers will never forget. World Retail Congress 2017 kicked off on April 4 in Dubai, and we were there to cover it. The first session of the conference saw two respected names in department-store retailing hold forth on the shifts and challenges retailers are facing: Terry Lundgren, Executive Chairman of Macy s, offered his thoughts on the US market and Sir Ian Cheshire, Chairman of Debenhams, focused on the UK market. Terry Lundgren: Department Stores Are Still Viable The rapid pace of change in retail was a theme running through a number of presentations on day one of the conference. Few sectors have been more impacted by developments such as e-commerce and shifting consumer priorities as the US department-store sector. 1

2 Lundgren noted that commentators have predicted many times that the departmentstore model is dying, but said that we are still going strong. The convenient proposition of the format continues to appeal to shoppers, he said, and if the model did not yet exist, some bright spark in Silicon Valley would likely invent it. The 2015 Downturn Macy s grew its sales by $5 billion between 2010 and 2014, Lundgren said. And that was with fewer stores at the end of the period than at the start. In 2015, however, the market shifted: Consumer demand changed, with millennials in particular migrating away from the kind of retail stores Macy s operates in favor of e-commerce. The strong dollar hit tourist spending in the US. The benefit to consumers of lower fuel prices was principally directed to buying homes and cars and not to smaller-ticket retail categories such as apparel. Lundgren s Three Factors for Success In this still-difficult context, Lundgren outlined three major factors that can sustain demand at brick-and-mortar stores: 1. Exclusive product. Retail is primarily about product and, in an age of price transparency, product uniqueness is a real competitive advantage. This is not just about private label, Lundgren noted: in the US, for example, Tommy Hilfiger is sold only at Macy s. 2. Exciting store experiences. Stores are not different enough from five years ago, Lundgren said. Macy s could still do a better job of bringing events into stores. For instance, it could bring elements from its Thanksgiving Day Parade and Flower Shows into its wider store estate. Retailers must also invest in store associates in order to offer customized experiences at a personal level, he said. 3. Investment in e-commerce. Multichannel retailers must continue to integrate channels, with online technology driving traffic in-store and vice versa. Lundgren said that European stores have done a better job of offering click-and-collect than 2

3 US stores have, and that some European firms offer examples of best practices in providing positive cross-channel experiences. Ending on an optimistic note, Lundgren said that the greatest innovations often follow setbacks so the current challenges retailers face also represent big opportunities. Sir Ian Cheshire: Three Retail Trends Later in the day, Debenhams Chairman Sir Ian Cheshire noted three key trends in retail, based on his experience in the UK sector: 1. E-commerce drives everything. Almost all growth in all major retail markets is being driven by e-commerce. Mobile Internet has been the game changer, gifting shoppers hypertransparency with regard to both product and price. 2. Experience, not stuff, is what will matter. At Debenhams, beauty sales are increasingly being made through makeovers rather than through direct product purchases, Cheshire said. He also noted that, when shoppers are buying beauty products, they are more frequently doing so with a group of friends, as part of a social experience. Cheshire concurred with Lundgren s earlier comment that retailers must invest in customer service. 3. The world is seeing a winner-takes-all phenomenon. Unless retailers can do something better than Amazon can, they will remain under pressure, Cheshire said. Retailers must provide something interesting and special to customers, which means opportunities lie with those offering exclusive product and great experiences. 3

4 Four Macro Factors Cheshire also noted that there are four macro factors impacting retail and the supply chain today: 1. Politics has trumped the economic situation. Brexit uncertainty is feeding back to retailers, particularly with regard to exchange rates and the consequent impact on sourcing. 2. Uncertainty in the US. The Trump administration faces challenges in getting its proposed policies passed, and high expectations in the US could result in disappointment. Not knowing where things will land makes people nervous, Cheshire said. The impact on global trade remains uncertain and frictionless supply chains are under threat. 3. Interest rates are set to stay low. In the UK, inflation is strengthening in consumer prices, but Cheshire expects interest rates to remain low over the next few years. Customers are continuing to borrow and the UK government could pass legislation to restrain credit. 4. Oil prices will remain low. Cheshire believes that there has been a structural shift in oil prices and that the $100 barrel is not coming back. He noted that shale fracking and renewables are depressing oil demand in Western developed economies. Cheshire s key point was that there is new uncertainty in retailing and the supply chain even while low interest rates and low oil prices bode well, in theory, for consumer demand. More Key Thoughts from Day One Jo Malone, who founded the Jo Malone and Jo Loves fragrance brands, said that retail must be about theater, entertainment [and] circus. A product may be just a fragrance or just a notepad, but brands and retailers must create moments that consumers will never forget. Malone noted her four Cs for retail success: Connect. Retailers are lucky if they get five minutes a year with each consumer so they must make those minutes count. Converse. Speak in the consumer s own language. 4

5 Creative. Get consumers to create; engage them. Convert. Get the consumer to purchase something. Tim Steiner, CEO at e-grocer Ocado, busted four myths about online grocery retailing: Myth #1: No one makes money. Fact: Ocado has reported a profit for the last three years, and it has nowhere to hide costs as brick-and-mortar retailers do with their own online operations. Myth #2: Only a small fraction of consumers buy groceries online. Fact: More than 40% of UK consumers buy groceries online. Myth #3: Only millennials buy groceries online. Fact: Elderly consumers buy online, too, and participation is seen across income groups. The bigger factor is household size: smaller households are less likely to buy groceries online. Myth #4: Shoppers do not buy fresh food online. Fact: Fresh foods contribute as great a share at Ocado as at any UK grocery retailer. More than half of Ocado s sales are in fresh categories. Neela Montgomery, Executive Chair of Crate & Barrel, pointed to three key rules that brick-and-mortar retailers must follow in order to resonate with the fast-changing needs of shoppers: Be bold, act fast and experiment, in order to make stores ready for the future. Be aware that social media amplifies everything. For example, a single store event can garner a lot of attention on social channels. Social media traffic counts, as well as store traffic. Many consumers, especially millennials, want personalized experiences and personality when they are shopping. This will force more retailers to deviate from standardized models that were designed to offer consistency of experience. 5

6 Petah Marian, Senior Editor of Retail Intelligence at WGSN, noted several key trends among millennials, Gen Zers and Alphas (those who are younger even than Gen Zers). Millennials, born between 1980 and 2000, are flaunting wealth through wellness classes, selfies and measurement devices. Wellness is the new status symbol. Additionally, this generation is ad exhausted, leading more brands to engage in creative unbranding, such as by hosting cultural events where the experience is more important than the brand name. For Gen Zers, born after 2000, selfies are not narcissism; they are storytelling. And visual images, including emojis, form part of the demographic s language. Gen Zers are also the genderless generation, reflecting their rejection of binary divisions and placing people in fixed categories. Alphas will grow up using technology such as augmented reality and virtual reality at school, and coding will be their second language. Alphas are the next generation, according to Marian, representing those born between 2010 and Their parents are therefore millennials, and these kids will have been subject to new technologies such as wearables even before birth. Keep an eye out for our upcoming reports on days two and three of World Retail Congress

7 Deborah Weinswig, CPA Managing Director Fung Global Retail & Technology New York: Hong Kong: China: John Mercer Senior Analyst Hong Kong: 8th Floor, LiFung Tower 888 Cheung Sha Wan Road, Kowloon Hong Kong Tel: London: Marylebone Road London, NW1 6JQ United Kingdom Tel: 44 (0) New York: 1359 Broadway, 9th Floor New York, NY Tel: FungGlobalRetailTech.com 7