Fuel Cell Bus Market Study: Transit agency needs, wants, and concerns

Transcription

1 Fuel Cell Bus Market Study: Transit agency needs, wants, and concerns Andrew Papson, CALSTART Presented at APTA Expo Oct

2 Our Mission is to Make Mission Clean Statement Transportation Happen CALSTART is a unique national, non-profit, membersupported organization dedicated to the growth of an advanced transportation technologies industry that will:»create high-quality jobs;»clean the air;»reduce dependence on foreign oil; and»prevent global warming 2

3 Our 2018 Goal: 775 ZEBs by 2018! FTA EDSP Goal ,000 ZEBs CALSTART 2018 Goal 775 ZEBs (in service or on order) Extrapolated to ZEBs 3

4 CALSTART Members (Partial Listing) Making Clean Transportation Happen. Join Today. 4

5 Overview of our FCB Market Study * Ongoing initiative to capture the needs of the transit industry. Three phases: Interviews of leading properties Nationwide survey of transit executives Focused general manager charrette Goal: provide information to the FCB industry on the wants, needs and anticipated demand for FCBs. (Dec 2014) Today s work: desired attributes, concerns, trade offs. Next steps: purchase price sensitivity, demand projections. 5

6 Survey Methodology and Timing Data Collection Method Written survey distributed by Feb 2013 Request for 2 participants per agency (if possible) who influence bus procurement Fleet Manager (Fleet Supervisor/City Transit Executive/Procurement Manager) Maintenance Manager Participants Selected Based on: Various levels of AFV bus experience Various sizes of transit bus fleet Locations throughout the U.S. in pollution non-attainment and maintenance area Outreach: 69 agencies contacted 41 agencies responded 53 transit executives responded (26 with ZEB exp.) Fleet Managers: 30 total (10 with FCB exp.; 7 with battery electric bus exp.) Maint. Managers: 23 total (6 with FCB exp.; 3 with battery electric bus exp.) 6

7 Survey Participant by AFV Experience Level AFV Experience Level of Transit Agencies Responding to Survey Number of Transit Agencies Represented Have CNG Bus & Refueling Infrastructure Experience 24 Have Battery Hybrid Electric Bus Experience 16 Have Fuel Cell Bus Experience 12 Have Battery Electric Bus Experience 8 Have No AFV Bus Experience 2 7

8 We identified potential early adopters Zeroing-In On Potential Early FCB Adopters Willing to Install Hydrogen Refueling Infrastructure Interested in FCBs Potential Early Adopter Have Exp. With CNG as a Fuel 8

9 Desired attributes: Which are most important? Attribute Early Adopters All Participants Better fuel economy ($$/mile) Eliminates GHGs Improved reliability over diesel buses Eliminates tailpipe (PM, NOx, CO) Most Important Reliability, Emissions, Fuel Economy Green Bus Passenger Appeal Fewer Mechanical Components Meets ZEB Mandates Public Presentation / Politics of it Silent Operation Improved bus driver appeal Less Important Public Perception, ZEB Mandates Least Important Operating Benefits, Driver Appeal 9

10 Pain Points What are your greatest concerns? Attribute Early Adopters All Participants Vehicle Availability Long-term supplier support Purchase Price Most Important Availability, Long-term support, Purchase Price Concerns about system life Concerns about safety / new hazards Warranty Inadequacy Maintainability/Fit with Current Fleet Lifecycle cost estimates will not be achieved Liability Availability of maintenance training Don t want to be an early adopter Vehicle residual value Drivers will not like Less Important Maintenance Safety, Training Least Important Residual Value, Driver Input 10

11 Trade Off Analysis Which one would you prefer? Attribute Pairs: Trade-off questions reveal transit agency priorities. Respondents chose strong preference, weak preference, or no preference Focus on bus cost trade-offs 11

12 Trade Off Analysis Which one would you prefer? Attribute Pairs: Key findings: Strong weighting towards long range over high top speed. Weak preference for zero tailpipe vs. zero GHG. While up front cost is a concern, respondents weighted it less important than nearly all other metrics. 12

13 Expected Payback Query: when investing in a new technology bus, what is the minimum acceptable payback period? Findings: Early adopters willing to tolerate later payback periods 35% willing to tolerate 9+ years essentially a break even bus 2 0 less than 3 yr 3 to 6 yr 6 to 9 yr 9 yr or more Early Adopter Follower Expected Payback Period 13

14 Insights for Zero Emission Buses Survey results confirm that agency managers overwhelmingly focus on concrete issue s costs, reliability, maintenance. Softer issues like public perception do not resonate. FCB industry and proponents need to tailor their messaging accordingly. Reliability and maintenance is the greatest concern. Good news, FCBs are starting to meet these targets. This is a major win for FCBs. H2 costs ($/kg) remain high, and fuel cost/mi is the #1 agency concern. The infrastructure piece may become a major bottleneck. What can OEMs and component suppliers do to overcome this? While agencies are concerned about upfront costs, they are more concerned about reliability and operating cost. Take home: OEMs should focus on building a high quality bus, let prices fall in the long term. 14

15 Questions? Comments? Please reach out. Andrew Papson CALSTART

16 Agencies Participating in Survey 16

17 Desired Attributes Which are most important? 17

18 Pain Points What are your greatest concerns? 18

19 Infrastructure less than 3 yr 3 to 6 yr 6 to 9 yr 9 yr or more Available space for Infrastructure (Early Adopters) 19

20 Trade Offs 20