CP Solutions Overview Strategic Trade & Marketing Planning Overview

Transcription

1 Demand Better Agenda CP Solutions Overview Strategic Trade & Marketing Planning Overview STP Annual Plan creation and Reporting Results List Price/Base Price and Distribution change initiatives, importing initiatives Review reporting options; simulation results CTP Overview Promotion and Category Plan Basics Multi tiered (stacked EDLP + TPR) promotions best practice Prediction Settings Basic Reporting Post Event Analysis Accrual rates & edit funding in plans Corporate View Report (add on feature) 1

2 CP Solution Suite Overview

3 Profile: DemandTec, an IBM Company Company Founded in 1999; Acquired by IBM in February 2012 Global HQ in San Francisco Area Work in CP arena with leading retailers & manufacturers Value Proposition Revolutionizing sales and marketing decision making in a continuous, comprehensive, and collaborative way that optimizes marketing and sales planning from CMO to Field Sales Leading CP Trade Analytics Customers Key Retail Customers Solutions Ø Total Trade Optimization Ø Marketing Plan Optimization Ø Shopper Marketing Optimization 3

4 Enhance Collaboration and Coordination Manufacturer Collaboration Retailer HQ Strategic Marketing Planning Strategic Trade Planning Shopper Insights & Planning Marketing Mix Optimization & Execution Corporate Customer Trade Planning Everyday Price & Promotions Customer Teams Deal Management Shopper Insights Deal Management Shopper Insights Merchandising Assortment Planning Assortment Planning 4

5 Supports Mfr End-to-End Business Planning Process Brand Marketing Consumer Insights Field Sales Simulate Price & Promotion Strategies Price, promotion, segment Guidelines Strategic Trade/Marketing Planning HQ Campaigns New Product Launch Publish down National Planning Templates Optimized Plan Template Shipment Conversion Volume Revenue and Spend Targets Plan Reconciliation Target Setting & Allocation Trade Finance Integrate to TPM Final Approved Plan Create Promotion Scenarios Manage Customer Trade Plans Customer and Category Aggregation Integrate to ADM Customer Trade Planning

6 Scalable Analytics on Cloud Platform... ˆ ˆ ˆ ˆ ˆ ˆ ln 1 1 1) (, 1 1) (,,,,,,,,,, = Κ = = = τ δ κ ν γ n n m t mn t r r i n m t mn t r r i n i t i t i t i i t i i t i t i i i t i t i S S P P X M P P S S B Demand Modeling Forecasting and Simulation Data Management Accept syndicated data + customer data feeds Scalable platform and harmonized models Holistic analytical rigor to Trade and Pricing Decision-making

7 Science in a Nutshell Statisticians understand each client s basic data structure, quality and trends and apply proprietary econometric modeling techniques to estimate coefficients by regressing historical volume against various merchandising activities and tactics. Data profiling and Coefficient estimation - includes scoping the data the data to be modeled, generating models, assessing models for fit and statistical significance and approving the accuracy of the models for each project category. Following the initial generation of demand models, they are updated on a periodic basis. Harmonized at the PPG level if using both SP & CTP 7

8 Strategic Trade and Marketing Planning Flexible Modeling of arbitrary Drivers Flexible Planning at arbitrary dimensions (time, category, location) Configurable Line-Items that support customer specific metrics and KPIs Financial Allocation Model useful for measuring high level ROI Rich Reporting Syntax for Decomposition and Due-To 8

9 Customer Trade Planning Account Planning with Excel like interactions and Calendar reference Embedded Visualization of historical Performance Scenario Comparison of volumetric and financial results from both Mfg. and Retail Perspectives Post Event Analysis supporting category review and continuous improvement 9

10 Strategic Trade Planning & Strategic Marketing Planning

11 STP & SMP Enables You to Quantify impact of Price, Trade, and Promotion initiatives Simulate response to market conditions or competitive actions Optimize pricing across portfolio and accounts to maximize trade spend Provide guidance to field account teams Establish base plans at the account and brand level including EDLP and Rollback strategies Identify targeted promotional strategies to maximize effectiveness Incorporate cannibalization and competitive effects to support decision-making Integrate financial metrics in order to determine ROI for alternative scenarios Refresh activity and plans quarterly to track performance Quantify impact on total category/ brands/private label Drop results into excel and PPT presentations or use rich reporting Publish guidelines to field account teams 11

12 DemandTec SP Supports Your Planning Business Process for the Upcoming year Feasibility Improvement & Reconciliation Forecast Budget/Target Gap Analysis Preliminary HQ Plan Improvement Analysis Base Price Spend Allocation Merch Tactics Plan Upside/ Downside Recommendations Final HQ Plan Trade Guidelines Plan Reconciliation Consensus Plan Latest Estimates Improvement Analysis Performance Assessment 12

13 Typical HQ Sales Planning Annual Cycle Annual Recap Evaluate past fiscal year performance - Did we hit our targets; why / why not? - What activities worked / didn t work? - What was the return on the marketing / trade investments? Annual Planning Top down target setting - What should next year s volume and profit goals be? - How much should be invested by brand? Detailed plan development - Should we change base price? - What changes to the current promotion strategy should be made (frequency, timing, prices) - How much will the new plans deliver? Reconcile Top Down vs. Bottom Up estimates Execution and Tracking Sell in plans to customers - How do I support my recommendations? Monitor Execution - Are we meeting plan? - Did the events execute as planned? - What can we do to make plan (shift investments, backpocket funds) - What can we learn / share with the rest of the team? Finalize targets and commitments 13

14 DemandTec Strategic Trade Planning Functionality Planning Simulation & Optimization Reporting Analysis & Diagnostics Dashboards KPIs Real-Time Simulation Response to Trade Volume Profit Business P&L Comparison Performance Report Drivers Comprehensive Planning Response to Price Base Price On-Promo Planned vs. Actual vs. Forecast P&L Volume Comparison by Week Report Optimizer Volume Decomposition 14 Planned vs. Actual vs. Forecast P&L, Volume

15 Enables Scenario Analysis of Business Issues Adjust current Financial plans or build new ones Takes an established base plan and allows you to build what if scenarios (initiatives) on top of it You can use the tool to answer such questions as: What would be the volume and P&L impact of increasing Marketing or Trade spend by $2MM in Q4? If base prices were raised by 10%, how would it impact the bottom line? What if the competition does or does not follow? 15

16 Planning Create and Evaluate Complete Plans Build scenarios based on comprehensive view of your future activity and competitive environment. Note: Scenarios typically represent the future, but can be configured to do a historical what if analysis. Enter plan assumptions in at any level (higher or lower level of detail). Simulate to identify best plan and quantify impact. The simulated P&L is based on the demand and financial models Instantly simulate multiple options. Diagnostic reports help identify the best option. 16

17 Scenarios Incorporate several layers of past, present and future / forecasted trade and merchandising activities 3 layers: Ø Default Base Plan Ø Base Plan Overrides Ø Initiatives Future Initiatives -Increments to Base plan values Base Overrides - Replaces Base Plan values Present Actuals -As time passes actual data is collected and entered Resulting Scenario Combination of 3 building blocks 1/1/12 3/31/12 Time Past Admin-defined Base Plan -Details all Base Plan values 17 1/1/11 1/1/12 3/31/12

18 Initiatives Initiatives can be isolated and simulated to create a P&L. The simulated P&L displays the volume and line item impact of the scenario. 18

19 All Plan Drivers Executed together Yield a Plan Simulation Driver Types Trade Promotion Distribution Financial Rates Shelf Pricing Plan 19

20 Use Reporting Library to Evaluate Scenario Impact Evaluate simulation results using various reports in the Reporting library. Detailed P&L impact in the P&L Comparison by Attribute Report Analyze the drivers contributing to incremental volume growth between marketing plans with the Volume Variance Report Look at individual driver s impact on a weekly basis for a particular scenario in the Driver Details Report. 20

21 P&L Report Answers Key Bottom-Line Questions If I implement this plan, will I achieve my annual Volume and Revenue targets? Will I be over /under spent to my trade budget? Simulating calculates the volume and financial impact (if available) of initiatives within a scenario. You can choose to select to simulate one or all initiatives. 21

22 Reports Quantify Impact & Provide Answers 1. Due To Report 2. Due To by Attribute Report How much impact did a specific driver (distribution, EDLP) have? Which accounts drove my growth? 3. Volume Decomp Report 4. ROI Report What was the breakdown of volume within each account? What s my ROI by brand? missing 22

23 Diagnostic Reports Provide Clarity and Directional Guidance 5. Base Price Elasticity Report 6. Promoted Price Elasticity Report Which PPG is most responsive to base price change? 7. Cross Price Elasticity Report Diagnostic Reports can help identify best option to pursue 23

24 Options to View Results Scenario to Scenario Scenario to History Scenario to Prior Year History History to Prior Year History Flexible Comparison - option to compare history and scenarios with different scope (product, location, time) 24

25 Tips & Tricks: Importing Initiatives from another Plan Can be a nice timesaver. If there is an existing initiative you want to include in a new scenario, simply use the import function. 1. While in the new scenario, right click and select Import. 2. In the pop up window, choose the scenario that contains the initiative you want to import and hit Ok. 3. The next pop up window will show the initiatives that can be imported into the new scenario. Select the initiatives and hit Ok. 25

26 STP & SMP 26

27 Customer Trade Planning

28 Customer Trade Planning Basic Structure Category Plans Cat Plan 1 Timeframe Category Retailer Category Plan timeframes must align with your fiscal calendar. Results are easily compared Results Summary Details Repriced Products Mfr impact Retailer totals Results Summary Details EDLP Products Mfr impact Retailer totals Results Summary Details Promoted Products Mfr impact Retailer totals Scenarios (Promotions) PPG 1-List Cost/Shelf Price Change Products Markets List Cost or Price to Consumer Change PPG 2-EDLP Products Markets Allowances Tactics EDLP (>8 weeks) PPG 3-TPR Products Markets Allowances Tactics TPR (<8 weeks) Ad Display, etc. 28

29 Building Scenarios

30 Add Products/Add Markets Lists all Products and Markets in a category Can view products by PPG, Brand, Line Group or Static Product Group Placing a check in space provided includes all items/markets 30

31 Tactic: Price Many available types of pricing terms including TPR, EDLP, List Price, Shelf Price and UEV 31

32 Tactics: Ad/Feature and Display The ACV% default is set at the company level. You can adjust to low or high historical mean, or override the mean. The best practice is to keep it at the historical mean. 32

33 Allowances Trade spend for your promotion Multiple allowance types can by utilized in the promotion. For each allowance type, there is flexibility to assign the value of measurement 33

34 Promotion Creation The best practice with a stacked promotion is to first build each promotion scenario separately. Why? Short-term promotions won t see EDLP activity allowing for each promotion (including the EDLP promotion) to be evaluated individually. WK 32 TPR Wk Ad WK 35 TPR Wk Ad WK 40 TPR Wk Ad $.12 Scan $.12 Scan $.12 Scan 13 Week EDLP = / Scan = $

35 Prediction Settings Prediction Settings are used to adjust forecast assumptions for nonpromoted MFG products and Competitor products. A promotion is predicted with the company s default context settings (typically average context), but you can choose to change the settings for a promotion prior to predicting. 35

36 Prediction Settings Average Context the prediction mechanism assumes that products are promoted at an average level across all time periods, evening out differences over the course of the promotional period No Context the prediction mechanism assumes that products not included in the promotion scenario are not promoted at all. Last Year Context the prediction mechanism assumes that products are promoted at the promotional history levels from the previous 52 weeks (same time last year) for non-promoted products Use for key activity weeks that you expect will very closely mirror last year s activity (including competitive activity) 36

37 Reporting

38 Reporting Volume Manufacturer Revenue Retailer Revenue Trade 38

39 Detailed Results: Effects on Manufacturer Big Picture A. D. C. B. A. Brand with Highest Cannibalization? B. PPG units with Highest Cannibalization? C. Brand with Best Unit Lift %? D. Mfg. with Worst Unit Lift %? 39

40 Analytics - Promotion History Report The Analytics Panel shows historical data for product and location combinations in your promotions. The table shows you a linear view of historical revenue, volume ACV and price data 40

41 Analytics - Promotion History Report Choose which metric and tactics to view on the graph You can adjust the timeframe displayed. The tactics will display in a stackable format and metrics in a line. 41

42 Post Event Analysis Provides insight into the effectiveness of a promotion after it has been executed by showing forecasted results against actuals. 42

43 Category Plans

44 Category Plan Creation Create a new plan in-line, similar to the Promotions page! 44

45 Build Into Category Plan Add individual promotions into one category plan All promotions will interact with each other creating a comprehensive prediction for the total plan Ease in making adjustments WK 32 TPR Wk Ad WK 35 TPR Wk Ad WK 40 TPR Wk Ad $.12 Scan $.12 Scan $.12 Scan 13 Week EDLP = / Scan = $

46 Enter Plan Accrual Rate Enter accrual rates (by %of revenue or fixed funding) in the category plan before predicting to measure against budget Use the Edit Funding option to further manipulate rates/ funding details at the PPG level. 46

47 Comparison The Category Plan Comparison displays side-by-side comparison of plans. Choose between Absolute or Relative comparisons and whether or not to also show the baseline forecast 47

48 Workflow Status for Plans You can label your plans as Draft, Complete, or Approved Helps with workflow 48

49 Add-on Feature to CTP Reporting

50 Corporate View Report (Add-on Feature) Allows Field users to view forecasts of approved plans aggregated across Categories and Time. Allows HQ users to view forecasts of approved plans aggregated across Retailers, Categories and Time. Results available by Retailer, PPG and UPC level 50

51 DemandTec Customer Trade Planning 51

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