HOW WILL INDIA CONTRIBUTE TO COPPER CONSUMPTION GROWTH

Transcription

1 DR. D. DE SARKAR, INDIAN COPPER DEVELOPMENT CENTRE HOW WILL INDIA CONTRIBUTE TO COPPER CONSUMPTION GROWTH March 2011

2 AGENDA Brief History production & consumption Domestic demand Key Drivers Demographics Economic progress Preparedness of local industry Role of scrap recycling Export-Import status

3 COPPER PRODUCTION 1920 s : Mining & Smelting started at Ghatsila by Cordoba Copper Co. ( later renamed as Indian Copper Complex ) : ICC commenced production of Fire Refined Copper (8000 tpa capacity) FABRICATION CAPACITY Traditional small scale units making utensils, artwares and hardwares Captive units (1920 s) to cater to defence and Railway Workshops CONSUMPTION HISTORICAL BACKGROUND Pre-Independence Era No precise data available Only 25,000 tonnes in 1948

4 TOTAL COPPER CONSUMPTION (EST.*) 800, , , , , , , , YEAR * Primary + Secondary + Imported Semis

5 ESTIMATED SECTORWISE COPPER CONSUMPTION IN INDIA 7% 11% 7% 6% 5% 8% 56% Elec & Tel Transport Process Ind General Engg. Cons. Durable Bldg & Constn Others

6 REFINED COPPER PRODUCTION CAPACITY Year Quantity (tonnes) , , , ,500

7 800, , , , , , , ,000 0 REFINED COPPER PRODUCTION YEAR 1956

8 KEY DRIVERS FOR DEMAND GROWTH Growing domestic market extending to rural areas Copper is indispensable for many end use sectors which are on fast growth track Govt. s priority for Infrastructure development Increased quality consciousness Improved life style Newer opportunities

9 POPULATION OF INDIA : in Billions YEAR

10 URBAN POPULATION GROWTH TRENDS In Billions YEAR

11 AGE DISTRIBUTION Below 25 : 50 % Below 35 : 65 % Average Age = 29 years by 2020

12 ECONOMIC PROGRESS Economic liberalization started in early 1990s Achieved accelerated growth av. 7% since Back to pre-crisis growth path mostly due to strong domestic demand

13 INDIAN GDP GROWTH % TREND Growth Rate % Year

14 DEMAND GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES High to Very High

15 EXISTING MARTKET - WITH HIGH GROWTH POTENTIAL Electrical Transport General Engineering Consumer Durables

16 ELECTRICAL Very low per capita electricity consumption Addition to generation capacity Thrust on improved Power Quality by better Transmission, Distribution & Utilization System

17 TRANSPORT Railways Track electrification Higher capacity loco Underground / overhead services AC coaches Improved signaling system Automobile Auto electricals Increased production

18 AC & R MARKET Very fast growing market 25% CAGR projected for AC ( TR market in 2006 grew to TR in 2010) Copper tube demand projected to double in next 3-4 years

19 RELATIVELY NEW MARKET Water & Gas pipe line Solar water heater

20 FUTURE POSSIBILITIES Fire sprinkler system Desalination Anti-microbial property based applications Reverse substitution

21 PREPAREDNESS OF REFINED COPPER PRODUCERS Adequate capacity and further possibility to increase M/s. Sterlite (Vedanta) & Birla (Hindalco) Copper have acquired mines overseas M/s. Hindustan Copper Ltd. also have new initiatives Developing new mine, increasing existing mine capacity (3.5 MT to 12.5 MT by 2017) Also exploring assets in overseas

22 PREPAREDNESS OF FABRICATING INDUSTRIES Adoption of latest technologies Continuous strip casting line CCR wire rod mills High speed wire drawing machines Cluster rolling mills Continuous pickling lines Continuous annealing lines Conform and Improved quality assurance through Updated testing facilities ISO accreditation Effort to export

23 ROLE OF SCRAP Important raw material 30-40% of total copper consumption is accounted for by scrap There is only one secondary refined copper production unit (50,000 tpy) Efficient scrap recycling is an important issue

24 EXPORT - IMPORT

25 EXPORT Copper Cathode and CCR rod being exported regularly Some semis manufacturers have also established export market & Many are looking for opportunities

26 IMPORT Reduction in refined copper import Reduction in scrap import (net copper content) Favourable cost factor leads to certain semis import viz. copper tubes

27 EXPORT-IMPORT OF REFINED COPPER ( cathode + wirebar + wirerod) 400,000 Quantity (tonnes) 350, , , , , ,000 50, YEAR Import Export

28 IMPORT (Refined Copper & Scrap) 140, , ,000 Quantity (tonnes) 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, Year Refined Copper(cathode+wirebar+CC rod) Copper Content in Imported Scrap

29 India will CONCLUSION contribute significantly to copper consumption with an annual growth rate much higher than world average.

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