IMPACTS OF PRESENT AND FUTURE CLIMATE VARIABILITY ON AGRICULTURE AND FORESTRY IN THE TEMPERATE REGIONS: EUROPE G. Maracchi(*), O.D. Sirotenko(**) (*) IBIMET-CNR, Florence, Italy (**) ARRIAM - Obninsk, Russian Federation International Workshop on Reducing Vulnerability of Agriculture and Forestry to Climate Variability and Climate Change Ljubljana, Slovenia, 7-9 October 2002.
IMPACTS OF PRESENT AND FUTURE CLIMATE VARIABILITY ON AGRICULTURE AND FORESTRY IN THE TEMPERATE REGIONS: EUROPE Main topics! Role in European countries! Sensitivity to present climate! Impact of climate change! Vulnerable regions! Adaptive strategies available! Main future research strategies
AGRICULTURE FORESTRY: Role in European countries Belarus+Baltic Bulgaria+Romania Land-use relevance "In the European countries agricultural and forest areas cover: # Agriculture: 52% of land (ranging from 10% to 69%) # Forest: 30% of land (ranging from 9% to 48%) Balkan countries Central Europe Poland Italy+Greece Portugal+Spain France Alpine countries Germany+Benelux Forest Agriculture British Isles Nordic countries 0 20 40 60 80 Source: FAOSTAT database for the period 1990-1998.
Agricultural Regions Five major agricultural regions can be distinguished on the basis of environmental and socio-economic factors: Regions I and II. characterised by a market-oriented agriculture with crop production and livestock breeding AGRICULTURE - Role in European countries Regions IV and V characterised by three types of agriculture: traditional, market-oriented and socialised with extensive crop production Region III characterised by two types of agriculture: traditional and market-oriented with typical Mediterranean crops Source: Kostrowicki, 1991.
Forest Regions Three major forest regions can be distinguished on the basis of environmental factors: Temperate Region in central Europe, divided into Atlantic and Continental forests on the basis of the differences in the availability of soil water FOREST - Role in European countries Source: Kellomaki, 2000 Boreal Region in the European part of the boreal zone Mediterranean Region in the dry temperate zone in the Mediterranean Basin.
Climate of Europe Climate Climate classification for Europe The climate of Europe shows large differences from west (maritime) to east (continental) and from north (Arctic) to south (Mediterranean). The climatic conditions are then modified by the spatial distribution of land, ocean, mountains which act on atmospheric circulation. Source: Koeppe and de Long, 1958
AGRICULTURE - Role in European countries Yields variability across Europe The different type of organisation and environment determine large variability in yield of crops across the European regions Mean yield of different crop types (t/ha) Regions Cereals Oil-crops Roottuber crops Vegetables Fruit crops I 5.06 0.86 24.5 26.2 9.36 II 6.44 0.83 27.6 22.5 18.28 III 3.44 0.41 14.1 21.0 8.58 IV 3.29 0.53 17.7 18.1 6.07 V 2.27 0.34 20.3 15.9 3.69 Source: FAOSTAT database for the period 1980-2000.
FORESTRY - Role in European countries Forest parameters across Europe The different type of tree species and environment determine large variability in forest resources across the European regions Mean parameters for European Forest Region Parameters Boreal Atlantic Region Continental Mediterranean Area, Mha 5.06 0.86 24.5 26.2 Volume Mm -3 6.44 0.83 27.6 22.5 Growth Mm -3 3.44 0.41 14.1 21.0 Cut Mm -3 3.29 0.53 17.7 18.1 Balance Mm -3 2.27 0.34 20.3 15.9 Source: UN-ECE-FAO Forest Resource Assessment, 1992
Climate Observed trends in Europe Mean Temperature Northeastern areas Southwestern areas Central areas Source: IPCC Data Distribution Centre
Climate Observed trends for Europe Mean Precipitation Northeastern areas Southwestern areas Central areas Source: IPCC Data Distribution Centre
Climate Observed trends for Europe 70 64 (1940) Mean (1889-1998) 22,39 60 Mean (1951-1998) 19,02 50 40 30 20 Numers of days 1889 1892 1895 1898 1901 1904 1907 1910 1913 1916 1919 1922 1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 Frost days (T Min. < 0 C) 10 0 Mean ( 1971-1998) 14,71 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 1889 1892 1895 1898 1901 1904 1907 1910 1913 1916 1919 1922 1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 Numero di giorni 10 8 Decadal mean summer longest spell with Tmax > 34 C 5 0 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 Temperature extremes (case study in Tuscany Italy) Maracchi et al., 2001 N Days with T Max > 34 C Media (1889-1998) 8,55 Media (1951-1998) 11,39 42 (1994) Media( 1971-1998) 16,75 Days
20 15 10 Climate Observed for Europe Winter rainy days Precipitation extremes (case study in Tuscany Italy) Maracchi et al., 2001 % Anomalies 5 0-5 -10-15 -20-25 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 12 Rainfall in Autumn (with daily amount > 60 mm) 14 Number of rainfall in Spring (with daily amount > 40 mm) 10 Firenze Pisa 12 Florence (1890-1990) Number of days 8 6 4 10 8 6 4 Massa (1950-1990) Viareggio (1950-1990) 2 2 0 1900-1920 1920-1940 1940-1960 1960-1980 1980-2000 0 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
Climate Effect of climate now Agricultural crop development and yield Growing length Bindi et al., 2001 Bindi et al., 2001 4500 Sunflower yields (climate change) Crop Yield 8000 Wheat yields (climate change) 4000 7500 7000 3500 6500 kg ha -1 3000 2500 kg ha -1 6000 5500 5000 2000 4500 1500 4000 3500 1000 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Bindi et al., 2001 Years 3000 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Bindi et al., 2001 Years
Climate Effect of climate now Natural and Forest vegetation Early starting of growing phases (flowering) Source: EPN European Phenology Network Bruns E. Source: EPN- European Phenology Network Van Vliet A. E.
Temperature extremes Climate Future scenarios Climate change is expected to determine a general reduction of cold winter and a strong increase in hot summary especially over southern Europe. Source: Carter and Hulme, 2000
Climate Future scenarios Precipitation extremes Climate change is expected to determine an increase in the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events in Europe also in those areas (southern Europe) where the total amount of precipitation is reduced Source: May and Vos, 2001
Wet Dry spells Climate Future scenarios Climate change is expected to determine a prolongation of extreme dry spells on the entire continent except for northern Scandinavia and northern Russia, in particular in western and southern Europe. Source: May and Vos, 2001
AGRICULTURE - Production Response Combined effect of climate change and enhanced CO 2 on crop production yields of C3 crops (vegetable, wheat and grapevine) generally increase yields of C4 crops and summer crops generally decrease Inter-annual variability of crop yields increase Yield quality may be affected maize sunflower grape Yield impact (%) * (V+) wheat vegetable (V+; Q-) -20-10 0 10 20 Q= quality; V= yield variability * UKTR model, decade 66-75, CO 2 617; (Source: Harrison and Butterfield, 1995)
AGRICULTURE - Most sensitive/vulnerable regions Vulnerable Regions Northern and southern current marginal areas for production of traditional crops will be particularly sensitive to climate changes: Northern areas Benefits $ introduction of new crops $ higher crop production $ expansion of suitable areas for crop cultivation Disadvantages $ increase in plant protection $ increase in risk of nutrient leaching $ acceleration of breakdown of soil organic matter Southern areas Benefits $ introduction of new crops Disadvantages $ lower yield $ higher yield variability $ reduction of suitable areas for traditional crops Onion Sunflower Wheat Southern E.U. Northern E.U. E.U. -40-30 -20-10 0 10 20 Yield impact (%) (Source: Harrison and Butterfield, 1995)
FOREST - Production Response Combined effect of climate change and enhanced CO 2 on forest production # Expansion of forest border # Increase in timber producing capacity # Higher risk of wind and fire damage # Lower summer soil water availability # Enhancement of insects and fungi attack Tree volume of European forest areas Tree growth and cutting of European forest areas 25000 20000 1990 2040 600 500 1990 2040 400 Mm -3 15000 10000 Mm -3 300 200 5000 100 0 Softwood Hardwood 0 Growth Cut Growth Cut (Source: Pajuola, 1995) Softwood Hardwood
AGRICULTURE - Main adaptive strategies Adaptive strategies The agronomic strategies intend to offset either partially or completely the loss of productivity caused by climate change : Short-term term adjustments Long-term adaptation Short-term term adjustments Management of cropping systems: $ Changes in crop varieties (varieties with different thermal requirements, varieties given less variable yields) $ Changes in agronomic practices (sowing/planting dates) $ Changes in fertiliser and pesticide use $ Adoption of new tools for crop selection (climate seasonal forecast) Conservation of soil moisture: $ The introduction of moisture conserving tillage methods (minimum tillage, conservation tillage, stubble mulching, etc.) $ The management of irrigation (amount and efficiency)
AGRICULTURE - Main adaptive strategies Long-term adaptation adaptation may overcome adversity caused by climate change through major structural system changes: $ Changes in land allocation to optimise or stabilise production. $ Development of designer-cultivars to adapt to climate change stresses (heat, water, pest and disease, etc.) much more rapidly than it possibly today $ Crop substitution to conserve soil moisture. (e.g. sorghum is more tolerant of hot and dry conditions than maize) $ Microclimate modification to improve water use efficiency in agriculture (e.g windbreaks, inter-cropping, multi-cropping techniques) $ Changes in nutrient management to reflect the modified growth and yield of crops
AGRICULTURE: FORESTRY: Main future research strategies % Produce climate scenarios including a wider range of climatic variables (e.g. isolated and extreme events such as hail and severe wind) % Develop methods for downscaling climate change scenarios and up-scaling impact and adaptation assessments % Perform studies on cropping systems more than on single crops % Develop seasonal weather forecasts and methods for adapting such forecasts in farm management % Explore in greater detail a range of technological adjustments (short and long term strategies) available in agriculture % Develop integrated assessment using climatic and non-climatic conditions (economic, technological, environmental, etc) % Physiology and genetics studies to resolve the problem of regeneration, growth, development and adaptation of key species in the short and long-term % Process-based models of forest stand development in the long-term with particular reference to the effects of increased ambient CO 2 % Elucidation of biology and potential pest and disease organisms in relation to host physiology. % Development of monitoring techniques to detect the effects of environmental change with emphasis on changes in productivity in existing forests.
Conclusions % Current differences in producing capacity between northern and southern countries will increase under climate change % Inter-annual variability of plant production and abiotic and biotic damages (i.e. wind, fire, pest-disease damages) will increase, especially in regions, such southern Europe, where agro-forest ecosystems are affected by water shortages and extreme weather events (e.g. Heat waves, wind speed, etc.) % Negative impacts could be addressed supporting the development and introduction of specific agricultural and forestry adaptive management measures (e.g. Agronomic and water conservation practices, modification of microclimate, regular forest management, shorter rotations, etc.) % Future climate change strategies Future climate change strategies will have to be focussed on the definition of climate change target that should be meet for avoiding or at least limiting negative effects for producing capacity