Climate change impacts on recent crop yield trends and rural migration patterns
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1 Climate change impacts on recent crop yield trends and rural migration patterns Rachel Licker August 19 th, 2013 NCAR IAM Meeting
2 What drives the striking yield gap between E. & W. Europe? Wheat yield gap fraction over Eastern and Western Europe Licker et al. (2010) Glob. Ecol. Biogeography
3 (Monfreda et al., 2008) How has climate driven yield trends in global breadbaskets? Picardy Region of France and Rostov Oblast of Russia Globally important producers of wheat Examples of high and low yielding agriculture
4 Climate Crop Yield Relationships Picardy Region of France Located in northern France km 2 (slightly smaller than New Jersey) Second largest wheat producing region in France France = 5 th largest wheat producer, 2 nd largest exporter Yields are among highest in the world (8.4 T/ha) As with much of Europe, yields are stagnating
5 Climate Crop Yield Relationships Rostov Oblast of Russia Located in southern Russia 100,800 km 2 (slightly smaller than Kentucky) Part of Southern Federal District main wheat producer Russia = 4 th largest wheat producer, 4 th largest exporter Yields are on the lower side (2.8 T/ha) Yields fell after USSR collapse & began recovery in late 90s
6 Licker et al., 2013, Agr. Forest Meteorol. Climate Crop Yield Relationships Average climate: a closer look Analyzed historical, daily weather station data from the regions Compared many aspects of climate: Annual, seasonal & monthly T max, T min, T ave, Precip Frequency of extreme temp.s Onset of spring and fall Length of growing season
7 Climate Crop Yield Relationships Average climate Picardy: Maritime climate Longer growing season More precipitation Rostov: Continental climate Greater seasonal variation (colder winters, warmer summers) More extreme temperatures
8 Climate Crop Yield Relationships Recent climate change Both regions: significant changes in climate ( ) Rostov: changes in most variables Strongest in summer Ex: T max 4 C warmer Picardy: many changes Strongest in fall and spring Ex: Spring T ave 2.4 C warmer
9 Climate Crop Yield Relationships Climate sensitivities Compared year-to-year changes in climate & yields Rostov and Picardy s winter wheat yields Sensitive to many aspects of climate Main climate drivers differ Rostov: Late spring & early summer conditions Picardy: Summer & fall conditions
10 Climate Crop Yield Relationships Climate change impacts Picardy Overlap in aspects of climate that yields are sensitive to & aspects that have changed Estimated climate change impact: Counteracted 11% of yield trend
11 Climate Crop Yield Relationships Climate change impacts Rostov Not much overlap in aspects of climate that yields are sensitive to & aspects that have changed Likely no net impact Social factors: more important drivers
12 Secondary impacts of climate change - Many implications of such changes in crop yield trends due to climate change: More direct: Changes in commodity prices, food access, etc. Indirect: e.g., link between climate change, crop yield trends & human migration patterns, e.g.: - Feng et al. (2012): US Corn Belt: crop yields due to extreme events, out-migration of adult population - Gray and Mueller (2012): Crop failures in Bangladesh migration of rural households not engaged in ag.
13 Climate, Crops, and Migration South Africa Importance of South African agriculture Large projected changes in climate Projected shifts in regions suitable for agriculture Recently experienced large decreases in number of farmers chance to measure relationships
14 Climate, Crops, and Migration South Africa Africa s most highly productive agricultural system Extensive maize, sugarcane, and wheat production Maize harvested area Wheat harvested area (Monfreda et al., 2008)
15 Future Climate, Crops, and Migration South Africa Significant changes in SA s climate are likely by 2100 over baseline, A1B scenario: Average inland temp.s: increase by 4 C Precipitation: 20% decrease Current extent of land suitable for maize cultivation is at risk of: a) b) Shrinking Shifting into PA buffer zones Bradley et al. (2012) Diversity Dist.
16 Past Crops, Climate, and Migration South Africa In SA, structural reforms in early 1990s led to: Removal of heavy subsidies & protection from global market Planted area of important cereal crops Production concentrated in high yielding areas Maize harvested area & yield (FAOSTAT, 2013)
17 Crops, Climate, and Migration South Africa Total commercial farms: 1996: 60, : 39,966 Whether changes in climate across space & time influenced crop production & off-farm migration future dynamics?
18 Changing climate and agricultural production Q1.1. What climate stressors have farmers faced in recent history and how have they influenced crop production in different regions? Historical analysis of weather & crop yield data Q1.2. Did climate influence the decline in SA s planted area & the decision of farmers to migrate off farms? Using patterns in climate, production & migration across space and time National household migration survey data + population census statistics Empirical, statistical migration model (OLS, IV?)
19 Changing climate, human migration Q2. What were the outcomes of those farmers who: 1) Remained in operation 2) Stopped operating but did not move 3) Stopped operating and moved Mixed methods: - Quantitative analysis, census statistics & survey data - Qualitative, interview-based methods (early 2014)
20 Thank you!
21 Crops, Climate, and Migration South Africa Using historical relationships between climate, crop production and migration as a partial indicator: How likely are people to move off cropland with reduced productive potential/yields in SA? c. Carlos Gomes
22 Climate Change, Agriculture, Human Migration There is concern that the climate change will increase human migration flows. For example, a small but growing body of work: Link between climate change, agricultural production, human migration.
23 Which regions could support higher crop yields? Actual wheat yields, circa 2000, tons / hectare (Monfreda et al., 2008) What is the maximum yield that these regions can achieve given their climate? How do the maximum potential yields compare with current yields?
24 Comparing yields across agro-climatic zones Growing Degree-Days Soil Moisture Index 100 agroclimatic zones
25 How do climate and social factors drive crop yield gap patterns? Wheat yield gap fraction Licker et al., 2010, Global Ecology and Biogeography
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