The Smart City in 2030 Prof. Dr. Otthein Herzog CIUC - Tongji University, Shanghai, PRC Universitaet Bremen, Germany acatech German National Academy of Science and Engineering First Workshop on Network 2030 New York City October 2, 2018
Outline 1. Global City Development 2. Planning Smart City Agglomerations for 2030 3. Smart City Agglomerations and ICT 4. Conclusions
The Smart City 2018 2030??? https://action.scholastic.com/issues/2017-18/120117/city-of-the-future.html (3000ad/Shutterstock.com)
Worldwide City Growth 2000-2016 Source: UN Data with Datawrapper
Sphere of Influence more than 50% of the Earth Population http://www.visualcapitalist.com/majority-worlds-population-lives-circle/
7 Urbanization Development 1961-2002 Developed vs. Developing Countries 75% high urbanization ate 高城镇化率 50% world average urbanization rage 世界平均城镇化率 1960-2012 comparison of urbanization rate in developed and developing countries(%) 数据来源 : 联合国 世界城镇化展望 :2007 Source: United Nations, 2008, p. 74-75
China s Urbanization in Numbers From 1978 to 2018, the urbanization ratio of China has risen from 18% to 58%, At an urbanization growth of 40%, 640 million people, 46% of the population have moved from rural areas to cities. The yearly average is a demographic growth of 16 million/year, but after 1995, the average demographic growth was more than 20 million people/year, with a peak of 25 million in 2010. In 2018, the urban population of China has exceeded 800 million: China has transformed itself from a country with 800 million peasants to a country with 800 million urbanians. In 1978, 790 million peasants lived in rural areas in China and 170 million people lived in cities. In 2018, 570 million peasants stay in countries and 810 million urbanians live in cities. By 2025, the urban population in China will exceed 1 billion and by 2035, 1.15 billion with an urbanization ratio of 75% of 1.5 billion people
1978 2018 Urbanization Ratio 城镇化率 China 中国
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Demographic Urbanization Ration vs. Economic Urbanization Ratio 90.00% 80.00% 70.00% 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 经济城镇化率 Economic Urbanization 城镇化率 Urbanization 20.00% 10.00% 0.00%
Smart Cities Hypotheses For the foreseeable future, the main growth of city agglomerations will take place in Asia and Africa The growth rates of European and American cities do not exert enough political pressure to accelerate Smart City developments The enormous growth rates of Asian and African cities can only be managed by planning for Smart City Agglomerations The main goals for planning African and Asian Smart City Agglomerations for 2030 ff are Preserving the environment in spite of industrialization Improve the live of the citizens
1. Outline 1. Global City Development 2. Smart City Agglomerations 3. Smart City Agglomerations and ICT 4. Conclusions
Population 2014 (million) Germany Yangtze River Delta (YRD) 80.89 219.77 Shanghai: 24.26 Zhejiang: 55.08 Jiangsu: 79.60 Anhui: 60.83 Area (m 2 ) 357,170 355,340 GDP 2014 (billion USD) GDP per capita 2014 (USD) 3868 2439 47,774 11,098 Shanghai: 6,340 Zhejiang:101,800 Jiangsu: 107,200 Anhui: 140,000 Shanghai: 385 Zhejiang: 654 Jiangsu: 1060 Anhui: 340 Shanghai: 15,870 Zhejiang: 11,874 Jiangsu: 13,317 Anhui: 5,590 1. Data Source: World Bank (for Germany), National Bureau of Statistics of China (for YRD) 2. USD CNY average exchange rate 2014 (6.14) is used for currency conversion of GDP of YRD.
The Cost of the Rapid Urbanization of the Jangtze River Delta The Yangtze River Delta covers three provinces and one major city. The concurrent phenomena of the high-density concentration of socio-economic 1 elements and the divided governance become the bottleneck in the sustainable development of this region. The traditional urbanization is coming to its end as it had brought with it serious environment pollution, social conflicts, huge energy consumption and the exhaustion of the demographic dividend: Pressure of non-sustainable land, water and energy use caused by high-intensity and high-density development; Serious regional environment pollution; Urban sprawl, deteriorated traffic through congestion and the over-concentration in megacities; Problematic issues relating to integrated urban-rural development and quality of life and social risks
3 Intelligent Cooperation Breakthrough Tasks+1 Data Platform Intelligent Diagnosis for Urban Agglomerations Intelligent Planning for Urban Agglomerations Intelligent Governance for Urban Agglomerations Intelligent Data Platforms for Urban Agglomerations The intelligent upgrade of the sustainable development of urban agglomerations depends on the establishment of innovation dynamics that involve multiple disciplines, multiple departments, and multiple institutions. Join qualitative with quantitative approaches for sustainable Smart Agglomeration planning and operation Sensors Edge Computing - Data transport - Data platforms Analytics
Outline 1. Global City Development 2. Planning Smart City Agglomerations for 2030 1. Smart City Agglomerations and ICT 4. Conclusions
1 规划理念 Planning concept 1 理念 1: 共家园 IDEAL 1: SHARED HOME 规划理念 2 理念 2: 智生产 IDEAL 2: INTELLIGENT PRODUCTION 3 理念 3: 智生活 IDEAL 3: INTELLIGENT LIFE 4 理念 4: 智生态 IDEAL 4: INTELLIGENT ECOLOGY
理念 1: 共家园 Ideal 1: Shared Home 马桥元素 ELEMENTS OF MAQIAO Inheriting intangible cultural resources and extending the historical context of the town's development. 都市家园 URBAN HOME Creating a 15 minutes' walking circle of life in accordance with working,living,relaxing, teaching and medical care. 幸福邻里 HAPPY NEIGHBOUR Building a happy and harmonious living environment is the ultimate goal of a beautiful home.
理念 2: 智生产 国际标准 INTERNATIONAL STANDARD 动态智配 DYNAMIC INTELLIGENT CONFIGURATION 云端应用 APPLICATION OF CLOUD Building Maqiao's international AI standard and creating the town's new image in the future. Intelligent spatial configuration guiding urban development and evolution in all fields by intelligent monitoring and analysis. Construction of a digital city model with icloud technology and a City Information Model.
理念 3: 智生活 生态社区 ECOLOGICAL community Realize the full coverage of an ecological community - community harmony, economic efficiency, and an ecological virtuous circle 集聚场景 GATHERING SCENES Include arts and heritage and display an innovative e- culture. 多元织网 MULTISYSTEM Activate and utilize the characteristic industries to enhance the vitality of the town culture.
理念 4: 智生态 生态感知 ECOLOGICAL PERCEPTION Combine different ecological paths such as rain, sewage, reclaimed water, cold and heat sources, electricity, gas and garbage. 低碳集成 LOW-CARBON INTEGRATION Develop low-carbon smart energy and manage the town's energy in a demandoriented way. 智能安全 INTELLIGENT SECURITY An emergency plan system and disaster relief space system should be formed to cope with all kinds of natural and man-made disasters in the future.
PART 2 Design Concept 概念设计
Planners 2 推演未来 Conceptual design AI Planning Building a Simulation Model Government 世界上第一个 地块尺度的人工智能小镇建设推演规划 Extrapolation planning at a parcel scale 2018 simulation start Citizens 休 医 学 Finance 2030 simulation res
规划 2 推演未来 Conceptual design 人工智能规划推演 构建博弈模型 世界上第一个 元空间尺度的人工智能小镇建设推演规划 Extrapolation planning at a unit space scale 2018 Simulation start 政府 镇民 休 医 学 资本 2030 simulation result
规划 2 推演未来 Conceptual design 人工智能规划推演 构建博弈模型政府 元空间功能 镇民 休 医 学 资本
2 概念设计 Conceptual design Intelligent 3D Planning 世界上第一个 三维空间尺度 的人工智能小镇建设推演规划 Extrapolation planning at a three-dimensional scale Ground Floor Businesses Upper Floors Living High-rise Buildings Offices
Outline 1. Global City Development 2. Planning Smart City Agglomerations for 2030 1. Smart City Agglomerations and ICT 4. Conclusions
Challenges for Smart City Agglomerations: Activity Spheres Safety Communication/IT Nutrition Mobility and traffic Urban Production Politics and administration Buildings and living Human and lifestyle Transport and Logistics Education Convergence of city systems City structure Energy and resource infrastructure Service and attendance Health Environment and climate
Speed of innovationcycles City structure Innovation Cycles of Urban Technologies Urban technologies must be flexible, innovative, provident, and consistent through long lifecycles ICT automobile heating system (building) glazing (building) composite insulation heat system (building) construction (building) thoroughfares wastewater infrastructure City structure 0 10 20 30 40 50 100 Temporal horizon in years Source: acatech (after Drees & Sommer AG)
Intelligent Technical Objects incorporate AI funtions for Smart City Agglomerations enabling real-time efficient, flexible, and autonomous processes that interact with the environment adapting to it autonomously (adaptive) manage even unexpected situations not taken into account by the developer in a dynamic environment (robust) anticipate the future on the basis of experience knowledge mitigate effects of influences and possible states (anticipatory) take into account individual user behavior (user-friendly) it s OWL Clustermanagement GmbH 15.06.2015 30
Sensor-based Interfaces
Head-Mounted Displays und Augmented Reality image source: IJMI, O. Wenker
Urban Production Smart Factories, CyberPhysical Systems, and the IoT Smart factories as the basis for the Fourth Industrial Revolution Distributed, connected, self-configured, and intelligent systems Reduction of the complexity by modular production plants and processes Fusion of the virtual and real world Paradigm shift: From centralized control to decentralized, autonomous systems A higher degree of communication enables coordination!
Smart Production: Wittenstein SE in Fellbach/Germany Holistic process optimization for the production of gear wheels: Low-noise, low gas emissions, minimal resource consumption in respect to noise, emissions, waste, CO2 emissions, water and waste water, Fully air-conditioned, but 35% energy savings per m2 compared with old building Integration into the neighborhood with passive energy homes
Truck Transport Figures (Germany)in Transport of Goods Room for Improvement in Truck Transport: in 2002: 23% of covered distances were deadhead in 2012: 20.7% of 30 Billion km In 2002: only 67% truck utilisation by loading weight (only 58% in long-distance traffic). Source: Bundesamt für Güterverkehr, 2002 Traffic volume continuous traffic increase, limited infrastructure. 200 0 Infrastructure growth 201 0 202 0
ICT-based Fuel and Emission Reduction of Trucks Source: National Academies of Science (2017). Guide to Deploying Clean Truck Freight Strategies..DOI 10.17226/24957, p. 14
Bandwidth Drivers: IoT and Interactive User Interfaces The growth of the Internet of Things and the upcoming trend toward more immersive and interactive user interfaces will flip the center of data production and computing away from central data centers to the digital edge. 1 Build strategies for future applications that factor in latency, location, federation and autonomy, as well as determining placement at the edge, cloud and in between. 1 Interconnection Bandwidth is expected to grow globally at a 48% CAGR* to 8,200+ Tbps of installed bandwidth. 2 The worldwide IP Traffic CAGR will be 26% by 2021 2 The Global Interconnection Index is a valid measurement for the growing importance of digital services 3 Sources: (1) Gartner Report The Edge will eat the Cloud (2018) (2) Cisco (2017). Visual Networking Index. (3) IDC (2018). FutureScape Worldwide IT Industry 2018.
World Interconnection Bandwidth Growth 2021: CAGR in % of Total Installed Bandwidth and Tbps https://www.equinix.com/global-interconnection-index-gxi-report/
Global Growth of Interconnection Bandwidth: 8,200Tbps in 2021 https://www.equinix.com/global-interconnection-index-gxi-report/
https://www.equinix.com/global-interconnection-index-gxi-report/
Energy and Utility Growth of Interconnection Bandwidth https://www.equinix.com/global-interconnection-index-gxi-report/
Outline 1. Global City Development 2. Planning Smart City Agglomerations for 2030 1. Smart City Agglomerations and ICT 4. Conclusions
Conclusions AI methods, CPS, and the IoT drive the digitalization of Smart City Agglomerations enabling environmentally friendly manufacturing in global supply networks with global service platforms future-proof Smart City Agglomerations planning processes real-time control of traffic demand-based and energy-efficient transportation working and living again in close quarters Smart City Agglomerations as parts of sustainable ecosystems. The process towards digitalization of Smart City Agglomerations, Smart Manufacturing, Smart Logistics, and Smart Transportation will be enabled by drastically increasing communication bandwidths.
Networking Challenges Bandwidth for private/enterprise/manufacturing network access: FTTX (> 1Gb/user) and corresponding pipes to guarantee the bandwidth/user and the QoS Low latency communication VR/AR/Holograms/gaming Real-time traffic control Smart Grid control Industrial applications Connectivity management for trillions of devices in the network/at the network edges
The Smart City 2030? Much more live-in than drive-through cities http://cityobservatory.org/visions-of-a-future-city-part-i/
Thank you very much for your attention! Otthein Herzog herzog@tzi.de WeChat: otthein