MAKING IRELAND WEATHER AND CLIMATE PREPARED Helping Irish society to be ready for and responsive to weather and climate risks Eoin Moran Director
AN ERA OF CHANGE and weather is changing Societal vulnerability is increasing The nature of weather information is changing 2
1985 1995 2005 2015 1985 1995 2005 2015 1985 1995 2005 2015 GLOBAL CLIMATE IS CHANGING Ocean Heat Content 10 22 Joules 10 Average Temperature C 1.0 0.5 Atmospheric CO 2 C 400 350 0 0 300 Greater than 90 % of the warming that has happened over the past 50 years has occurred in the ocean. -0.5 Temperature during 2016 was 1.1 C above the preindustrial period. Carbon dioxide reached >400.0 ±0.1 parts per million in the atmosphere. From: NOAA climate.gov & WMO (2017) 3
EXTREME WEATHER 2017 4
THE GREAT ADVANCE TECHNOLOGY, SCIENCE AND EXPERTISE 3 day forecast Forecast Quality: RMS error of 500 hpa height field, Northern Hemisphere 5 day forecast 7 day forecast 10 day forecast Adapted from: ECMWF 5
CHANGING NATURE OF WEATHER INFORMATION Increased interaction / social media Increased uncertainty information Increased detail Misinformation Weather Information Localisation Multi- Platform Contextualised / Personalised / Tailored Multi-provider 6
INCREASED URBANISATION Urban and rural population of the world, 1950 2050 By 2050, 66 per cent of the world s population is projected to be urban. From: UN World Urbanization Prospects, 2014 Revision 7
CHANGING NATURE OF WEATHER INFORMATION From: EUMETSAT 2014 excludes protection of life Adapted from: NOAA 8
NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES STRATAGIES 2016-2025 Strategy of European Met 9
PREPARATION OF STRATEGY Our Vision Our Goals Enhance support for impact-based decision making for weather events Continue to provide an effective authoritative voice on meteorology in Ireland Provide climate information services which promote the safety of citizens and supports economic and environmental resilience Deliver a high quality national flood forecasting service Maintain and support an expert, professional workforce Lead a modern, integrated meteorological infrastructure and support an enterprise environment for weather and climate services 10
SUPPORTING IMPACT BASED DECISION MAKING Impact Based Information International Experience & Collaboration Partnerships & Stakeholders Expertise & Training Flood Forecasting Authoritative Voice NWP Nowcasting Probabalistic Impact based services Social & Behavioural Expert Workforce Infrastructure Research Warnings & Emergency Management Contextualised/ Personalised Tailored 11
Impact Based Information Flood Forecasting Authoritative Voice Expert Workforce Infrastructure Recent weather & Past M o n t h l y S e a s o n a l simulations & Future Weather 12
Impact Based Information Flood Forecasting Authoritative Voice Expert Workforce Infrastructure Recent weather & Past M o n t h l y S e a s o n a l simulations & Future Weather services continuum 13
Impact Based Information Flood Forecasting Authoritative Voice Expert Workforce Infrastructure Information Research Reports Analysis/Reanalysis Interpretative layer Data Access Recent weather & Past O b s e r v a t i o n s ECMWF M o n t h l y S e a s o n a l EC-EARTH Regional Case studies simulations & Future Weather services continuum 14
ESTABLISH FLOOD FORECAST CENTRE Impact Based Information Flood Forecasting Scientific Collaboration Partnerships & Stakeholders Expertise & Training Authoritative Voice Communications Flood Forecast Observations & Infrastructure Expert Workforce Infrastructure Research Emergency Management Operational Models 15
PROVIDE AUTHORITATIVE VOICE FOR METEOROLOGY Impact Based Information Knowledge Transfer Research Capacity Media Presence Flood Forecasting Authoritative Voice Customer Service Authoritative Voice Communication & Reach Expert Workforce Infrastructure Partnerships Outreach & Education User response 16
EXPERT WORKFORCE Impact Based Information High performing Scientific & Technical Capacity CPD Training Flood Forecasting Authoritative Voice Flexible & Adaptive environment Skilled & Expert Workforce Partnerships Academia & research Expert Workforce Infrastructure Health & Wellbeing Management Culture Knowledge Management 17
MODERN INTEGRATED METEOROLOGICAL INFRASTRUCTURE Impact Based Information Energy efficiency Observations Radar Satellite HPC Flood Forecasting Authoritative Voice Enterprise Infrastructure ICT Capacity Expert Workforce Infrastructure Open data Resilient Operational services National Archive 18
MAKING IRELAND WEATHER AND CLIMATE PREPARED Impact Based Information Flood Forecasting Authoritative Voice Expert Workforce Infrastructure Mansion House Tuesday 12 th December 2017 Eoin Moran Director, Met Éireann 19
MAKING IRELAND WEATHER AND CLIMATE PREPARED Impact Based Information Flood Forecasting Authoritative Voice Expert Workforce Infrastructure Mansion House Tuesday 12 th December 2017 Eoin Moran Director, Met Éireann 20