TF HTAP/TFIAM Workshop on Global Emissions Scenarios to 2 IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria 11 13 February 21 AIM activities for assessing emissions of Long Lived GHGs and Short Lived Climate Pollutants by AIM/Enduse[Global] model Tatsuya Hanaoka (on behalf of AIM team members) Center for Social and Environmental Systems National Institute for Environmental Studies
Topics 1. Overview of AIM activities for assessing emissions of Short lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) and Long Lived GHGs (LLGHG) 2. Overview of AIM/Enduse[Global] and its scenarios 3. Comparison between GAINS & AIM/Enduse 4. Example results by AIM/Enduse what we can analyze & what we cannot analyze 2
model Output AIM models for mitigation analysis role of the AIM/Enduse model Global scale AIM/Impact[Policy] Top-down approach AIM/Material AIM/Extended Snapshot Hybrid approach AIM/Backcast AIM/CGE[Country] Mitigation potentials and costs curves National scale Macro-economic driving forces Macro-economic driving forces Global emission paths to climate stabilization AIM/CGE[Global] Mitigation potentials and costs curves AIM/Energy Snapshot Bottom-up approach AIM/Enduse[Country] Industrial production, transportation volume, etc AIM/Enduse[Global] Industrial production, transportation volume, etc Element / transition (service demand) Element / transition (service demand) 3
MOEJ S12: Promotion of climate policies by assessing environmental impacts of SLCP and seeking LLGHG emissions pathways (FY214 FY218) Goal: To develop an integrated evaluation system for LLGHG and SLCP mitigation policy, by interconnecting emission inventory, integrated assessment models, and climate models. Theme 1: Air quality change event analysis Analysis on regional AQ change Development of emission inventory Inversion algorithms of emission estimation Regional Emission Inventories and Chemical Transfer Model Chemical transfer model and emission inventory in Asia Improved emission inventory Assessment of activities/policies Theme 2: Integrated model and future scenarios Global socio economic scenarios National & regional emissions scenarios Urban & household emissions AQ assessment Integrated Assessment Model (AIM) AIM/Enduse model Socio economical & emissions scenario Theme 3: SLCP impacts on climate & environment Impact assessment of aerosols & GHG Assessment of health, agriculture, water cycle, sea level rise SLCP emissions scenarios Feedback of impacts Climate and Environment Model Climate model, earth system model Climate change impact & adaptation Model Science improvement Experiment setup Database development Metric definitions Theme 4: Integrated operation system (Toolkits, data archive) Stakeholders Policy makers System utilization CCAC, UNFCC, IPCC, EANET Proposal and assessment of climate and air pollution policies Society Information transmission MDG SDG Future Earth Regional strategy Global strategy 4
Challenges of S 12 Theme 2 led by NIES cooperating with MHIR and Kyoto Univ. 1. To indicate socio economic scenarios considering climate change and environmental impacts and To present emissions scenarios of Long lived GHG(LLGHG) and Short lived Climate Pollutant (SLCP). global/national/local scales 2. To evaluate co benefits of LLGHG mitigation measures and SLCP reduction measures and To analyze regional characteristics in Asia, in a manner consistent with long term global scenarios such as achieving 2 global temperature change limit target and halving global GHG emissions by 2. national/regional scales in Asia
Theme 4 Synthesis system Env. & Climate Impacts Theme3 Env. & Climate Impacts Future scenarios Information for negotiation on GHG reductions Assessment of Env. & climate policies in Asia S 12 Theme2: Improvement of Integrated Assessment Model and Quantification of Future Scenarios Emissions scenarios on LLGHG & SLCP Future socioeconomic scenarios Global emissions scenarios on LLGHG SLCP National emissions Scenarios on LLGHG SLCP Sub theme (2) Socio economic scenario considering climate & Env. Impact Global model AIM/CGE Global model AIM/Enduse Improvement of Enduse (Local activities & Pollution Management Technologies) National model AIM/Enduse Household Model Sub theme (1) Assessment of mitigation costs & climate change impacts Assessment of actions & policies Air pollution management technologies Air pollution management policies and events at national/local scale Theme 1 Emission inventory Improved inventory Env. & climate Policy in Japan Green:Relation to other Them Orange:Relation to Env. policies Local emissions scenarios on LLGHG SLCP Local Air pollution model Sub theme (3) AIM models Future Scenarios Research goals 6
Overview of AIM/Enduse model Bottom-up type model with detailed technology selection framework with optimization Recursive dynamic model Assessing technological transition over time Analyzing effect of policies such as carbon/energy tax, subsidy, regulation and so on. Target Gas : Multiple gases CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O, HFCs, PFCs, SF 6, SO 2, NOx, CFCs, HCFCs, etc Target Sectors : multiple s power generation, industry, residential, commercial, transport, agriculture, municipal solid waste, fugitive emissions, F-gas emissions (each of these can be further disaggregated into sub-s) 7
AIM/Enduse[Global] Regional Classification E.g.) Comparison to GAINS 2 Regions AIM/Enduse GAINS World 32 regions Annex I (exact) JPN (Japan) AUS (Australia) USA (United States) XE1 (Western EU 1) ASIA JPN, CHN, IND, IDN, KOR, THA, MYS, VNM, XSE, XSA, XEA, XCS CAN (Canada) TUR (Turkey) Japan, China+, India, Indonesia+, Korea, SE Asia, Rest SAsia, Asia STAN ASEAN IDN, THA, MYS, VNM, XSE Indonesia, SE Asia Annex I JPN, AUS, NZL, USA, CAN, XE1, XE1, XE2, TUR, XEWI, XEEI, RUS Japan, Oceania, USA, Canada, Western EU, Central EU, Turky, Ukraina+, Russia + KOR (Korea) MEX (Mexico) OECD (approx) NZL (New Zealand) XE1 (Eastern EU 1) XEWI (Other Western EU in Annex I) BRA (Brazil) RUS (Russia) XE2 (Other EU 2) XEEI (Other Eastern EU in Annex I) ARG (Argentine) CHN (China) XSA (Other South Asia) XENI (Other EU) XLM (Other Latin America) IND (India) XEA (Other East Asia) XCS (Central Asia) ZAF (South Africa) IDN (Indonesia) THA (Thailand) XSE (Other South East Asia) MYS (Malaysia) XOC (Other Oceania) VNM (Viet Nam) ASEAN (exact) XAF (Other Africa) XME (Middle East) 8
GHG CO 2 CH 4 N 2 O SO2 NOx BC PM Sector Power generation Industry Transportation Residential and & Commercial AIM/Enduse[Global] Target Gases and Sectors Sub s whose mitigation actions are considered in Enduse model (other subs are treated as scenario) Coal power plant, Oil power plant, Gas power plant, Renewable (Wind, Biomass, PV) Iron and steel,cement Other industries (Boiler, motor etc) Passenger vehicle, Truck,Bus,Ship, Aircraft,Passenger train,freight train (except for pipeline transport and international transport) Cooling, Heating, Hot water, Cooking, Lighting, Refrigerator, TV CH 4 Agriculture Livestock rumination, Manure management, Paddy field, Cropland N 2 O MSW Municipal solid waste CH 4 Fugitive Fugitive emission from fuel ODSs, HFCs, Fgas emissions By product of HCFC 22, Refrigerant,Aerosol, Foams,Solvent, Etching,Aluminum PFCs,SF production, Insulation gas, others. 6 CO2 CH4 N2O HFCs PFCs SF6 CFCs HCFCs SO2 NOx BC OC PM1 PM2. CO NH3 NMV Hg Fuel combustion Industrial process Agriculture Waste Fuel mining Others Emission factors can be set by energy, by and by region over time. Settings on technology options are the same, too : Updated & elaborating :On going updating 9
AIM/Enduse[Global] and element models Coal Energy Resource DB Oil Gas Energy mining Nuclear Hydro Geothermal Solar Wind Biomass Energy Supply Primary energy Socio-economic scenario Steel Production & Trade Model Cement Production Model Crude steel production Cement production Iron and steel Cement Electricity Population & Household number Transportation Demand Model Value added of 2nd industry Transport volume (Passenger) Transport volume (Freight) Other industries Transport (Passenger) Freight (Freight) Solid fuel Liquid fuel Gas fuel Heat Energy balance GHG emissions in Asia (Gt CO2eq) 3 3 2 2 1 1 2 21 21 22 22 23 23 24 24 2 Emissions Macro Economic frame Model GDP & Sector value added Household Lifestyle Model Energy service (Residential) Energy service (Commercial) Building (Residential) Building (Commercial) Hydrogen Municipal Solid Waste Model Municipal solid waste generation Solid waste management Agricultural Prod & Trade model Agricultural production Agriculture Fluorocarbon Emission Model Fluorocarbon emission Fluorocarbon Macro-economic model Service demand models Bottom-up model (i.e. AIM/Enduse) Energy DB Technology DB Variable Model Database Energy price Emission factor Cost Lifetime Efficiency Diffusion rate 1
Future Socio economic settings Socio-economic scenario Population & Household number e.g.) GDP Energy growth Resource DBper capita in each country GDP per capita (1 US$2/person) 7 6 4 3 2 1 China 198 2 22 24 26 28 21 GDP per capita (1 US$2/person) 4 3 2 1 Energy mining India 198 2 22 24 26 28 21 Macro Economic frame Model GDP & Sector value added Macro-economic model GDP per capita (1 US$2/person) ASEAN 4 2 198 2 22 24 26 28 21 Historical trend This study SSP1 scenario SSP2 scenario SSP3 scenario SSP4 scenario SSP scenario Considering various features of different socio economic scenarios 11
Modeling future service demands E.g.) Passenger transport volume estimation mode GDP per capita GDPP i,t Socio-economic scenario Population & Household number Steel Production & Trade Model Cement Production Model Transportation Demand Model Crude steel production Cement production Value added of 2nd industry Transport volume (Passenger) Transport volume (Freight) Population POP i,t Exogenous variable Endogenous variable Total transportation volume per capita PKTOTP i,t Total transportation volume PKTOT i,t Transportation volume of each mode PK m,i,t Definitional equation Estimation equation Modal share SH m,i,t i: region t: year m: mode Macro Economic frame Model GDP & Sector value added Macro-economic model Household Lifestyle Model Municipal Solid Waste Model Agricultural Prod & Trade model Fluorocarbon Emission Model Energy service (Residential) Energy service (Commercial) Municipal solid waste generation Agricultural production Fluorocarbon emission Service demand models Passenger transport (billion pkm) 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Japan China India Korea 2 21 21 22 22 23 23 24 24 2 Considering socie economic features to future service demand estimations Variable Model Database in each and country (i.e. POP, GDP, are consistent across s and countries) 12
Modeling on technology selections Coal Energy Resource DB Oil Gas Energy mining Nuclear Hydro Geothermal Solar Wind Biomass Energy Supply Primary energy By energy, and country, we can set various constraints such as Technology settings in the base year Energy balance in the base year Technology diffusion rate Speed of technology diffusion rate Technology constraints Energy constraints Speed of energy efficiency improvement Technology cost Technology costs improvement etc Iron and steel Cement Other industries Transport (Passenger) Freight (Freight) Building (Residential) Building (Commercial) Solid waste management Agriculture Electricity Solid fuel Liquid fuel Gas fuel Heat Hydrogen Energy balance GHG emissions in Asia (Gt CO2eq) 3 3 2 2 1 1 2 21 21 22 22 23 23 24 24 2 Emissions Selecting technologies to satisfy future service demands and to balance supply and demand, by, by country under various constraints & under minimizing total system costs Fluorocarbon Bottom-up model (i.e. AIM/Enduse) Energy DB Energy price Emission factor Technology DB Cost Lifetime Efficiency Diffusion rate 13
Future Scenario settings Case 1) Reference scenario (GHG mitigations under BaU & no pollution control measures) Case 2) Technological mitigation measures under emissions pathways constraints at 2, 2., and 3 reported by UNEP Emission Gap Report Case 3)Technological mitigation measures under carbon pricing scenarios, considering the current useful references of carbon pricing such as EU ETS carbon prices fluctuated due to global economic change, and varied around 1 3 EURO/tCO 2. The price of CER for CDM projects also fluctuated around 1 2 EURO/tCO 2. Due to the economic recession, the carbon price decreased, around 1 EURO/tCO 2. Upper limits of carbon price of EU ETS penalty price is 1 EURO/tCO 2 IEA (21) reported carbon price is at 17 US$/tCO 2 in the 4 ppmv scenario. Future global economy wide carbon prices scenarios (US$/tCO 2 ) Scenario name 213 22 23 24 2 Reference US$/tCO2 3.7 12. 2 37. 1 US$/tCO2 7. 2 7 1 2 US$/tCO2 1 1 1 2 4 US$/tCO2 3 1 2 3 4 Increase from the range of current carbon price up to US$/tCO2 Increase from the range of current carbon price up to EUETS penalty price Increase from the carbon price before economic recession, up to IEA assumption 14
AIM/Enduse[Global] in global 32 regions Baseline emissions from fuel combustion & industry in Asia GtCO2 3 14 Asia 2 12 China 2 1 1 8 6 1 4 EDGER4.2 2 AIM/Enduse 197 199 21 23 2 197 199 21 23 2 GtCO2 GtCO2 CO2 6 India 4 3 2 1 197 199 21 23 2 GtCO2 6 ASEAN 4 3 2 1 197 199 21 23 2 MtSO2 2 18 Asia 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 197 199 21 23 2 MtSO2 12 1 8 6 4 2 ASEAN SO2 197 199 21 23 2 MtNOx NOx 12 Asia 1 8 6 4 2 197 199 21 23 2 MtNOx 12 1 ASEAN 8 6 4 2 197 199 21 23 2 1
Comparison with GAINS results Reference CH4 emissions GtCO2 eq. 4. 3. 2. 1. Asia GtCO2 eq 1.4 1.2 1..8.6.4.2 ASEAN GtCO2 eq 2. 2. 1. 1.. China GtCO2 eq. 197 199 21 23 2 1.2 India 1..8.6.4.2. 197 199 21 23 2 GtCO2 eq. 197 199 21 23 2 3. Annex I 3. 2. 2. 1. 1... 197 199 21 23 2. 197 199 21 23 2 Major emission sources of CH4 are not from fuel combustion. Thus, we need to carefully see s such as agriculture, waste and fugitive emissions. Another major difference is that AIM/Enduse includes no regret in this reference scenario. EDGER4.2 AIM/Enduse (reference scenario) GAINS(NFC scenario) 16
Example of CH4 emission estimation How to estimate MSW generation in Asia? Outlier(Tibet) y = 184.4ln(x) 1243.3 R² =.832 Following US trend China in provincial level How to estimate future MSW generations in Asia? Asia will follow historical US trend? Japan trend or the average trend of developed countries? Following developed countries average y = 139.7ln(x) 94.6 R² =.7938 Following Japan trend y = 1.94ln(x) 617.2 R² =.744 Note )Data include Japan, China, Thailand, USA, EU27 & Chinese provinces 17
MtSO2 MtSO2 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 3 2 2 1 1 197 199 21 23 2 Asia India 197 199 21 23 2 Comparison with GAINS results Reference SO2 emissions MtSO2 12 1 8 6 4 2 ASEAN 197 199 21 23 2 MtSO2 8 7 6 4 3 2 1 China 197 199 21 23 2 Major differences are how to estimate future energy service demands, how to set emission factors by fuel and by country, and how to consider fuel policies and air pollution control policies in the future scenario. The results in the AIM/Enduse[Global] model does include neither fuel policies nor air pollution control policies in the reference scenario EDGER4.2 AIM/Enduse (reference scenario) GAINS(NFC scenario) 18
Comparison with GAINS results Reference NOx emissions 1 8 Asia 12 1 ASEAN 6 China MtNOx 6 4 MtNOx 8 6 4 MtNOx 4 3 2 2 2 1 MtNOx 197 199 21 23 2 2 India 2 1 1 197 199 21 23 2 197 199 21 23 2 197 199 21 23 2 Major differences are how to estimate future energy service demands, how to set emission factors by fuel and by country, and how to consider fuel policies and air pollution control policies in the future scenario. The results in the AIM/Enduse[Global] model does include neither fuel policies nor air pollution control policies in the reference scenario EDGER4.2 AIM/Enduse (reference scenario) GAINS(NFC scenario) 19
MtPM 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 199 21 23 2 Comparison with GAINS results Reference PM & BC emissions MtPM 2 Asia China India ASEAN AIM/Enduse GAINS(NFC) 2 1 1 199 21 23 2 MtPM 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 199 21 23 2 MtPM 8 7 6 4 3 2 1 199 21 23 2 Large uncertainties & large gaps maybe due to settings of EF and pollution control measures? MtBC 2 2 1 1 MtBC 14 7 2. Asia China India ASEAN 12 1 8 6 4 2 MtBC 6 4 3 2 1 MtBC 2. 1. 1.. 199 21 23 2 199 21 23 2 199 21 23 2. 199 21 23 2 2
6 GHGs emissions pathways in Asia and comparison with 2 target pathways Emissions constraints of achieving 2 3 were calculated based on UNEP Gap Report Future global economy wide carbon prices scenarios (US$/tCO 2 ) Scenario name 213 22 23 24 2 Reference US$/tCO2 3.7 12. 2 37. 1 US$/tCO2 7. 2 7 1 2 US$/tCO2 1 1 1 2 4 US$/tCO2 3 1 2 3 4 GHG emissions in Asia(Gt CO2eq) 3 3 2 2 1 1 2 21 21 22 22 23 23 24 24 2 GHG reductions ratio in Asia (% from reference) 1% 2% 3% 4% % 6% 7% 8% 9% 1% 2 21 21 22 22 23 23 24 24 2 % 4% reductions from the 2 levels Reference US$/tCO2 1US$/tCO2 2US$/tCO2 4US$/tCO2 Reference T T1 T2 T4 2 2. 3 2 scenario 2. scenario 3 scenario Source) modified from Hanaoka et al, Environmental Pollution (214) 21
SLCP & Air pollutants emissions in Asia Cobenefits of implementing CO2 mitigation policies SO2 emissions in Asia(Mt SO2) 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 2 21 21 22 22 23 23 24 242 NOx emissions in Asia(Mt NOx) 12 1 8 6 4 2 2 21 21 22 22 23 23 24 24 2 There are large reduction potentials of air pollutants and SLCPs, due to GHG mitigation actions such as drastic fuel sifts and energy efficiency improvement. (e.g. 6~9% reductions compared to baseline in 2 BC emissions in Asia(Mt BC) 2 Reference T T1 T2 4 T4 2 2. 3 2 1 1 2 21 21 22 22 23 23 24 24 2 PM emissions in Asia(Mt PM) 3 3 2 2 1 1 2 21 21 22 22 23 23 24 24 2 Reference US$/tCO2 1US$/tCO2 2US$/tCO2 4US$/tCO2 3 scenario 2. scenario Reference T T1 T2 T4 2 2. 3 Source) modified from Hanaoka et al, Environmental Pollution (214) 2 scenario 22
SLCP & Air pollutants reduction potentials in Asia Cobenefits of implementing CO2 mitigation policies Emissions pathway & reduction potentials Reduction potentials in 2 Features of reduction potentials are different by energy type, by gas type and by, e.g.) Sox: Power & industry Nox: transport and power BC: power and transport There is a limitation of large reductions only by fuel sifts and energy efficiency improvements Source) modified from Hanaoka et al, Environmental Pollution (214) Reference scenario 2 scenario Industry Transport Residential & Commercial Energy supply Others 23
What AIM/Enduse can & cannot do for Global Emissions Scenarios Comparison AIM/Enduse can discuss Estimating future emissions scenarios both LLGHGs, SLCPs and air pollutants, quantitatively up to 2. Analysing abatement actions by technology, by and by country under carbon tax, energy tax, subsidies, etc Analysing technology selections under various constraints such as emissions pathways constraint, energy supply constraint, technology diffusions, etc Discussing mitigation costs and required initial investments AIM/Enduse cannot discuss Considering spill over effects and rebound effects such as changes in the industrial structure, changes of service demands and changes in technology and energy price. Considering GDP losses due to GHG mitigation actions and pollutants abetment actions Considering land use change and its corresponding open biomass burnings 24
Conclusion Mitigation measures of energy efficiency improvement on the demand side and the shift to less or non carbon energies on the supply side play important roles in reducing CO 2 emissions as well as increasing cobenefits of SO 2 and NOx emissions reductions. Energy shift in energy supply largely contribute to reducing GHGs as well as SO 2 in Asia. However, NOx are derived from transport as well as energy supply, and there are limitations to shifting from fuel vehicles to Hybrid, plug in Hybrid, electric vehicles in developing countries. One caveat in this study is that, to focus on cobenefits of reducing air pollutants by introducing GHG mitigation measures, air pollutant control policies and fuel policies are not considered in this study. It is also possible to include these impacts into the Enduse model analysis in the further study. There is a limitation of reducing SLCPs and air pollutants only by fuel sifts and energy efficiency improvements from the viewpoint of low carbon measures, thus it is also required to consider policies such as air pollutant control measures and low sulfur content fuel policies. 2
Contact: hanaoka@nies.go.jp