Japan Roadmaps toward a Low- Carbon Society by backcasting

Transcription

1 Joint TERI ETSAP Workshop.: Energy Modeling Tools & Techniques to address Sustainable Development & Climate Change Japan Roadmaps toward a Low- Carbon Society by backcasting Shuichi Ashina a), Junichi Fujino a), Toshihiko Masui a), Kazuya Fujiwara b), Go Hibino b), Mikiko Kainuma a) and Yuzuru Matsuoka c) a) National Institute for Environmental Studies b) Mizuho Information and Research Institute c) Kyoto University This research was made possible by a Global Environmental Research Fund (GERF/S--1). The authors would like to thank all who made this research project possible. What are the Asian Low Carbon Societies in the study? By the middle of this century (2050), the target societies will satisfy the followings; 1. Harmonized with drastically changing future Asian society and economy, 2. Complying with each country's national reduction target that consists with the global low carbon target, under the global, national and regional constraints on fossil and renewal energy resources, and land resource, 3. Developing/devising/promoting LCS policies based on each region s characteristics, 4. Also utilizing effectively co-benefits of LCS policies and neighboring policies. 2 1

2 GHG emission //2010 Item to be considered Industry Domestic and Commercial Transportation Energy supply Social system Cross-sectional 1. Changes in industrial structure and technological development on energy consumption as i) Industrial structure well as productivity 2. Changes in building distribution by climatic zone 3. ii) Dwellings Changes of the share of detached and multi-dwelling houses 4. Diffusion rate of insulated detached and multi-dwelling houses 5. iii) Lifestyle Lifetime changes of the dwellings. Lifestyle changes on household consumption and allocation of the time 7. Changes in population distribution and local characteristics 8. iv) Passenger Changes in social transportation environment and human activities 9. Changes in selectivity of the mode of passenger transportation by area 10. Changes industrial structure 11. Dematerialization v) Freight transportation 12. Changes in producing /consuming area 13. Changes in selectivity of the mode of transportation by distance 14. Function of load management and uncertainties of both energy supply and demand 15. Combination of small consumer and small energy sources + Electricity/Hydrogen 1. vi) Energy Feasibility Supply of local production (Electricity/Renewables/Hydrogen for local consumption etc) 17. Relationship between economic activities and stock/flow of the materials 18. Amount of waste derived from the stock 19. Effectiveness of recycling and its impacts 20. vii) Ensuring Material consistency stock/flow among the sectors in terms of energy demand 21. Impacts of future technological choices on social energy efficiency 22. Ensuring economical consistency of LCSs viii) Consistency of energy balance ix) Economic consistency 3 Japan Low Carbon Society Scenarios toward 2050 Study environmental options toward low carbon society in Japan Develop socioeconomic scenario, evaluate countermeasures using econtechno models Long-term Scenario Development Study Green buildings Self-sustained city Decentralized services Urban structure Techno-Socio Innovation Study Eco awareness Effective communication Dematerialization IT-society Energy saving BaU scenario Tech. innovation EE improvement Structure change New energy Life-style change GHG reduction target (eg. 0-80% reduction by 1990 level) Middle-term Target year Loge-term Target year Next generation vehicles Efficient transportation system Advanced logistics Transportation system Intervention scenario Advisory board: advice to project Effective Reduction Target study Valid Equity Suitable Evaluate feasibility of GHG reduction target 0 Researchers Propose the direction of long-term global warming policy 2010/01/22 Joint TERI-ETSAP Workshop@New Dheli, India 4 [FY , Global Environmental Research Program, MOEJ] 2

3 GHG emissions per capita 2//2010 Low-Carbon Asia Research Project (S-) funded by MOEJ Sustainable development through LCS Future trends on socio-economic conditions, energy, resources, regional diversity, culture, lifestyle, etc. Developed Institutional design for international cooperation Institutional design for international cooperation, regional regime, etc. Sustainable resource management Constructing material accounts Low-Carbonization through improvement resource productivity and material recycle Diversity of Asia Developing Low Carbon Development Leapfrog Path Backcasting Development of Asia LCS Scenarios (1) Depicting narrative scenarios for LCS (2) Quantifying future LCS visions (3) Developing robust roadmaps by backcasting Policy Packages for Asia LCS Low Carbon Society LC Transportation Low-Carbon City with LC transport system Grand design for future transport system Encouraging in framing for LC policy in each Asian countries Assistance for international negotiations with scientific basis Approaches for int l LCS activity framework Networking among LCS research in Asia 5 Low-Carbon Scenarios for Asian cities Joint TERI-ETSAP Workshop@New Dheli, /01/22 India 3

4 Steps towards Japan LCS Scenarios Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Step 4 Depicting socio-economic visions in 2050 Estimating energy s Exploring innovations for energy demands and energy supplies Quantifying energy demand and supply to estimate CO 2 emissions Outcome 1) Feasibility study for 70% CO 2 emission reduction by 2050 below 1990 level Step 5 Investigating When and Which options and How much of each option should be introduced in order to achieve the goal. Outcome 2) Roadmap and Dozen Actions toward LCS 7 Two different but likely future societies Vision A Vivid, Technology-driven Urban/Personal Technology breakthrough Centralized production /recycle Comfortable and Convenient 2%/yr GDP per capita growth Vision B Slow, Natural-oriented Decentralized/Community Self-sufficient Produce locally, consume locally Social and Cultural Values 1%/yr GDP per capita growth Akemi Imagawa 8 4

5 Million houses Tri. yen at 2000 price Agriculture Forestry Fishing Coal mining Crude oil & NG mining Other mining Food products & beverages Textiles Pulp, paper & paper products Publishing & printing Chemical materials Chemical products Petroleum products Coal products Non-metallic mineral Pig iron & crude steel Other steel products Non-ferrous metal Fabricated metal products Machinery Elec.machine, equip. & supplies Transport equipment Precision instruments Other manufacturing Construction Thermal power plant Non-thermal power plant Town gas Water supply Wholesale & retail trade Finance & insurance Real estate Railway transport Road transport Water transport Air transport Other transport Communications Public service activities Other service activities 2//2010 Age Driving forces and socio-economic conditions for the future society > Population 4, ,000 Vision A Male Female Vision B Male Female Stocks standard 1992 standard 1980 standard Without insulation 1999 standard 1992 standard 1980 standard Without insulation Projection based on enhanced policy Projection based on present policy Male (10 3 ) Female(10 3 ) In ,00,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, ,000 00, ,000 Service demand A 2050 B 300 Economy , Bus Aviation Pass.car 2010/01/22 Buses Aviation <Sectors> Maritime Railway Walking & Bicycling Pass.cars MaritimeJoint Railways TERI-ETSAP Walk&Bike Workshop@New Dheli, India 9 Energy demands and supply for Japan LCS Seconday Energy Demands (Mtoe) (Actual) Industrial Residential Trans. Prv. Commercial Trans. Frg. 2050(Scenario A) 2050(Scenario B) Decrease 40-45% energy of demand energy reduces by demand structural change of demand, and efficiency improvement Industrial Residential Commercial Trans. Prv. Trans. Frg. Trans.Prv.: Transportation (Private), Trans.Frg.: Transportation (Freight) Primary Energy Consumption (Mtoe) (Actural) Coal Oil Gas 2050(Scenario A) Nuclear 2050(Scenario B) Biomass Solar and Wind 2010/01/22 Coal Oil Gas Biomass Joint TERI-ETSAP Workshop@New Nuclear Dheli, Hydro Solar and Wind 10 India 5

6 1990 CO 2 Emission CO 2 emissions 2000 CO 2 Emission 70% reduction Energy demand sector Energy supply sector of end-use of energy supply of end-use Reduction of demand 2050 CO 2 Emission Residential & commercial Energy supply Transportation Industry 1990 CO 2 Emission 2000 CO 2 Emission 70% reduction Change of activity Energy demand sector Energy supply sector Reduction of demand of end-use of energy supply of end-use 2050 CO 2 Emission CCS Residential & commercial Energy supply Transportation Industry Change of activity Carbon Capture Storage Akemi Imagawa High economic growth, Increase of per household, Increase of office floor (increase) Servicizing of industry, Decline in number of households, Increase of public transportation (decrease) Farm products produced and consumed in season Fuel switch from coal and oil to natural gas Insulation Energy use management (HEMS/BEMS) Efficient heat pump air-conditioner, Efficient water heater, Efficient lighting equipment Development and widespread use of fuel cell All-electric house Photovoltaic Advanced land use / Aggregation of urban function Modal shift to public transportation service Widespread use of motor-driven vehicle such as electric vehicle and fuel-cell electric vehicle High efficiency freight vehicle energy efficiency (train/ship/airplane) Fuel mix change to low carbon energy sources such as natural gas, nuclear energy, and renewable energy Effective use of night power / Electricity storage Hydrogen (derived from renewable energy) supply Power generation without CO2 emission Hydrogen production without CO2 emission 2//2010 GHG 70% reduction in 2050 Scenario A: Vivid Techno-driven Society Demand side energy -40% + Low carbonization of primary energy+ccs with moderate cost of technological options as 0.3% of GDP in the year of 2050 Change of activity Change of activity High economic growth, Increase of per household, Increase of office floor (increase) Servicizing of industry, Decline in number of households, Increase of public transportation (decrease) Farm products produced and consumed in season Fuel switch from coal and oil to natural gas Insulation Energy use management (HEMS/BEMS) Efficient heat pump air-conditioner, Efficient water heater, Efficient lighting equipment Development and widespread use of fuel cell All-electric house Photovoltaic CCS Advanced land use / Aggregation of urban function Modal shift to public transportation service Widespread use of motor-driven vehicle such as electric vehicle and fuel-cell electric vehicle High efficiency freight vehicle energy efficiency (train/ship/airplane) Fuel mix change to low carbon energy sources such as natural gas, nuclear energy, and renewable energy Effective use of night power / Electricity storage Hydrogen (derived from renewable energy) supply 2010/01/22 Joint TERI-ETSAP Carbon Capture Workshop@New Power Dheli, India generation without CO2 emission Storage Hydrogen production without CO2 emission 11 Current status of our study We have shown feasibilities of Low-carbonization in Japan by Some journal articles and reports have been published. Our outcomes (probably) affects national policy/strategy about climate change (esp. CO2 reduction). Vision A Vivid, Technology-driven Urban/Personal Vision B Slow, Natural-oriented Decentralized/Community Option Option Option When, which option, and how much to install? Evaluation by backcast model Option Non-LCS LCS Technology breakthrough Self-sufficient Centralized production Produce locally, consume /recycle locally Comfortable and Convenient Social and Cultural Values 2%/yr GDP per capita growth 1%/yr GDP per capita growth Base year Target year Next question: How to reach the future? 12

7 CO 2 emissions 2//2010 How to make a roadmap to the LCS?: We already have several roadmaps by experts. But Fuel Cell Vehicles Nuclear power Fuel cells Photovoltaics Energy efficient lighting Green IT These roadmaps (usually) focuses one technology/segment in a society. In order to find comprehensive roadmaps towards LCS, we need to combine the information appropriately. 13 Issues to be considered in depicting comprehensive roadmaps Each roadmap (explicitly/implicitly) aims to the LCS? LCS Base year Target year Combination of roadmaps brings inconsistency in energy balance, economic structure etc? Halving energy consumption Halving energy Minus energy + + consumption Reduction in X Mtoe = consumption?? In order to find comprehensive roadmap with keeping consistency in energy balance and/or economic activity, an AIM/Backcast model has been developed. 14 7

8 Overview of the AIM/Backcast model The model investigates and selects which options (countermeasures and policies) to introduce and when and at what intensity in order to best achieve the future social and economic activities portrayed in the scenarios while satisfying the today and throughout the period up to the target year based on certain criteria. The model also presents a Gantt chart with pathways of CO 2 emission, investment, and other related quantitative data. 15 How to address existing roadmaps in the model? (1) Decompose to individual technology and/or policy Ex. A roadmap contains five types of technologies and three policies: Tech. A Policy 1 Tech. B Tech. A Policy 2 Policy 3 Tech. D Tech. C 1 8

9 How to address existing roadmaps in the model? (2) Set relationships/order between components Ex. A roadmap contains five types of technologies and three policies: Order has been set in order of time. Tech. A Tech. B Policy 3 Tech. D Tech. A Tech. C Policy 1 Policy 2 Time 17 How to address existing roadmaps in the model? (3) Set quantitative data for each technology/policy Input Future target vision Social/Economical conditions Output Feasibility of the target Roadmaps CO 2 /Cost trajectories Set of options And, each options Sequential order Elapsed time Kick-off period 18 9

10 CO2 emissions [MtC] Akemi Imagawa 1990 CO 2 Emission CO2 emissions [MtC] 2000 CO 2 Emission 70% reduction Energy demand sector Energy supply sector of end-use of energy supply of end-use Reduction of demand 2050 CO 2 Emission Residential & commercial Energy supply Transportation Industry 2//2010 Application to Japan Low-Carbon Society Study - How to reach the society with 70% reduction in CO2 emissions in 2050? - Future society visions: Scenario A and Scenario B Vision A Vivid, Technology-driven Urban/Personal Technology breakthrough Centralized production /recycle Comfortable and Convenient 2%/yr GDP per capita growth Vision B Slow, Natural-oriented Decentralized/Community Self-sufficient Produce locally, consume locally Social and Cultural Values 1%/yr GDP per capita growth Change of activity Change of activity High economic growth, Increase of per household, Increase of office floor (increase) Servicizing of industry, Decline in number of households, Increase of public transportation (decrease) Farm products produced and consumed in season Fuel switch from coal and oil to natural gas Insulation Energy use management (HEMS/BEMS) Efficient heat pump air-conditioner, Efficient water heater, Efficient lighting equipment Development and widespread use of fuel cell All-electric house Photovoltaic Individual roadmaps and technology/policy are set based on Dozen Actions which is one of comprehensive and qualitative study about roadmaps towards LCS CCS Carbon Capture Storage Advanced land use / Aggregation of urban function Modal shift to public transportation service Widespread use of motor-driven vehicle such as electric vehicle and fuel-cell electric vehicle High efficiency freight vehicle energy efficiency (train/ship/airplane) Fuel mix change to low carbon energy sources such as natural gas, nuclear energy, and renewable energy Effective use of night power / Electricity storage Hydrogen (derived from renewable energy) supply Power generation without CO2 emission Hydrogen production without CO2 emission Criteria : Cost minimization 19 Results: CO2 pathways towards LCS Scenario A Scenario B Action 10 Action 9 Action 8 Action 7 Action Action 5 Action 3 Action 2 Action 1 CO2 emissions Action 10 Action 9 Action 8 Action 7 Action Action 5 Action 3 Action 2 Action 1 CO2 emissions When the CO2 target for 2050 is set 70% lower than the 1990 level, the pathways to reach the target in scenarios A and B are quite similar. The optimum course in terms of total cost is to start introducing measures by as early as 2010 and reduce emissions by 17% compared to the 1990 level by 2020 and by 30% by

11 Investment pathways for achieving LCS under the total cost minimization The investigation has also revealed a key piece of information to be determined for prompt action, namely, the necessary initial investment. In both scenarios sharply as a consequence of learning-by-doing effects and reductions in the demand for transportation services due to changes in the structure of cities. By 2020, the costs reach close to zero. Meanwhile, however, the additional fixed costs in the residential and 2010/01/22 commercial sectors stay at Joint around TERI-ETSAP 2 Workshop@New trillion JPY Dheli, per India year until Gantt Chart towards LCS (a part) 22 11

12 Viewpoints of future pathways: Four reasons for taking early actions 1. Technologies have learning-by-doing effects: the additional cost of low-carbon technologies will fall as the technologies spread. 2. If actions are delayed, learning-by-doing effects may fail to work sufficiently, resulting in higher total investment requirements to achieve a LCS. 3. No infrastructure can be built immediately; hence it would be difficult to switch suddenly to a LCS in the years just before Future technological development has several uncertainties. If one of the currently dominant technologies falls behind schedule, it will fail to spread as expected and CO 2 emission targets will not be met. Early actions will open up new opportunities for the spread of alternative actions toward the LCS should a dominant technology fail in some way. 23 Point 1: Learning-by-doing effects In the absence of learning-by-doing effects, the CO2 reduction pathway will be delayed. The introduction of major CO2 reduction options through the early-stage investment of large sums will not only gradually reduce the cost via learning-by-doing effects but also reduce the total investment required for achieving a LCS

13 Point 2: Delays in initiating action will push up costs If actions are taken quickly, the total additional investment will be 12.7 trillion JPY in scenario A and 7 trillion JPY in scenario B. If action is delayed by 10 years, the total additional fixed costs will increase to 93 trillion JPY in scenario A and 91 trillion JPY in scenario B. The fuel cost savings, meanwhile, will come to only 54 trillion JPY in both scenarios, as these options will spread late. Thus, the resultant additional investment from 2010 to 2050 will be 39 trillion and 37 trillion JPY in scenarios A 2010/01/22 and B, respectively. Joint TERI-ETSAP Workshop@New Dheli, India 25 Point 3: It takes time to construct infrastructure Infrastructure (city infrastructure, transportation systems, energy infrastructure, buildings, etc.) generally has a long service life and cannot easily be modified once constructed. The infrastructure built today is likely to be in use in Thus, the framework of a LCS is already being established. 2 13

14 Point 4: There are uncertainties in technological research, development, and deployment Taking action now to achieve a LCS will encourage active technology development, improve efficiency, reduce costs by learning-by-doing effects, spread the portfolio of alternative actions, prepare us for future uncertainties, and thus raise the possibility of achieving a costefficient LCS. 27 Summary What did we do? We draw up future roadmaps for technologies, policies, and optimal investment timing toward the achievement of a low-carbon society in Japan by 2050 using an analytical model based on a backcasting methodology. What did we find? Early actions can lead to pathways for minimizing the costs toward an LCS in Japan. However, to take early actions, large investments will be needed at the initial stages. Because: 1. Technologies have learning-by-doing effects: the additional cost of reducing CO2 emissions will fall as the technologies spread. 2. If actions are delayed, learning-by-doing effects may fail to work sufficiently, resulting in higher total investment requirements for achieving a LCS. 3. No infrastructure can be built immediately; hence it would be difficult to switch suddenly to a LCS in the years just before Future technological development has several uncertainties. Early actions will open up new opportunities for the spread of alternative actions toward the LCS should a dominant technology fail in some way

15 Further information [Journal] Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy, in printing. [Journal] Climate Policy - modeling long-term scenarios for low-carbon societies - Vol.8 Supplement 2008 [Report] Japan Scenarios and Actions towards Low-Carbon Societies (LCSs) [Report] Aligning Climate Change and Sustainability - Scenarios, modeling and policy analysis - (AIM, 2007), CGER-Report, CGER-I ALL INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED THROUGH /01/22 Thank you Joint TERI-ETSAP for your Workshop@New attention! Dheli, India 29 15