Driving the Clean Energy Revolution from the Ground Up Colorado Renewable Energy Society Boulder County March 10, 2015 Leslie Glustrom, Clean Energy Action and Colorado Renewable Energy Society Member lglustrom(at)gmail.com or 303-245-8637
I. Introductions II. Local Case Studies A. Boulder B. Fort Collins C. Xcel D. Tri State III. State Level Issues Coal in the Way A. Xcel Earns Profits from Fossil Fuel Investments B. No Consideration of the External Costs of Fossil Fuels C. Electric Commodity Adjustment Pass Through of Fossil Fuel Costs D. Discounting Future Fuel Costs E. Baseload Wrong Concept for the 21 st Century (Need Flexibility) IV. National Developments A. EPA Clean Power Plan B. Carbon Fee (Citizens Climate Lobby) C. Coal Supply and the Imperative of Repowering V. Moving the Discussion Locally
100 % Renewable Energy by 2030 (Or Darn Close.): 1) Is It An Imperative? 2) Do We Have the Technologies? 3) Are we on track?
Where Is the Imperative for You?
2011-2099 Projected Temp Changes (Relative to 1961-1990) http://americasclimatechoices.org/ Chapter 6, page 174, Natl Academies of Science Report 2010 Originally from Meehl 2007 Fig 10-8, IPCC Volume I (2007) www.ipcc.ch
Western US Projected Temperature Change 2035-2064 2015 Colorado Vulnerability to Climate Change (Gordon and Ojima), page 12
What to Do to Address Climate Change?? 1)Decarbonize Electricity 2)Decarbonize Transportation 3)Everything Else
You Are Not Alone!!!! Reuters 2015 Poll on Climate Change as a Moral Obligation Two-thirds of respondents (66 percent) said that world leaders are morally obligated to take action to reduce CO2 emissions. 72 percent said they were personally morally obligated to do what they can in their daily lives to reduce emissions. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/27/us-usa-climate-poll-iduskbn0lv0cv20150227
Clean Energy Can Move Our Country Past Partisan Gridlock Dem Ind Rep Source: Yale and George Mason Poll on Climate and Energy Policy (March 2012) For similar 2015 North Carolina poll see http://www.bizjournals.com/charlotte/blog/energy/2015/03/conservative-energy-group-s-poll-finds-strong.html?page=all
Colorado Has a Dirty Fuel Mix Colorado 11 th Dirtiest Climate Cental: Roadmap to Climate Friendly Cars 2013
Change in Coal Percentage of Net Generation By State 2008-2012 Colorado Source: NREL Technical Report NREL/TP-6A50-55538, Page 122
Case Study--Boulder
Xcel s Approx. Projected Fuel Mix 2015-2030 Renewable Energy Natural Gas Coal 2015 2030 Data provided by Xcel to City of Boulder, December 2010 Graph by Tom Asprey w RenewablesYes.org
Xcel s Approx. Projected Fuel Mix 2015-2030 Renewable Energy New Wind Natural Gas Coal 2015 2030 Data provided by Xcel to City of Boulder, December 2010 Graph by Tom Asprey w RenewablesYes.org
Xcel s Approx. Projected Fuel Mix 2015-2030 Renewable Energy Natural Gas = Risk Natural Gas Environmental, Economic, Moral Coal = Risk Environmental, Economic, Reliability, Moral Data provided by Xcel to City of Boulder, December 2010 Graph by Tom Asprey w RenewablesYes.org
Boulder s Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990-2012 Electricity Kyoto Target Source: City of Boulder Climate Action Plan Assessment July 2009 http://www.bouldercolorado.gov/files/environmental%20affairs/climate%20and%20energy/city_of_boulder_all_sections_final_072809_v9.pdf
Xcel: System Cost Savings From Renewable Energy Source: Xcel s 120 Day Report April 2009 RFP Docket 07A-447E Colorado PUC
Xcel s Recent Cost Data (February 2012) Coal $50/MWh $35/MWh Wind w/ptc Coal data from Pawnee (11A-325E) and Hayden (11A-917E) Dockets Colorado PUC Wind data from Limon I and Limon II Dockets 09A-772E and 11A-689E These costs do NOT include any price on carbon and assume there is no societal cost for coal.
Plummeting Cost of Solar Panels 1977-2013 http://costofsolar.com/cost-of-solar-panels-10-charts-tell-you-everything/
Costs Going Forward 2010-2020
Repowering and Decarbonizing Colorado Colorado s Wind Potential Approx 96 GW Colorado s Solar Potential Over 200 GW To Meet Peak Demand, Colorado Needs About 12 GW (12,000 MW) Colorado has the Potential for Over 300 GW of Wind and Solar. And Many Companies Ready to Build Projects. Clearly, we can largely decarbonize our electricity--if we decide to do it! Maps and Resource Potential from Colorado Governor s Energy Office based on NREL Data Information on Wind and Solar Bids from Xcel Energy
Xcel s Approx. Projected Fuel Mix 2015-2030 Renewable Energy Natural Gas Coal 2015 2030 Data provided by Xcel to City of Boulder, December 2010 Graph by Tom Asprey w RenewablesYes.org
RenewablesYES Modeling Team A Remarkable Volunteer Effort 2011 Boulder Election Sam Weaver Tom Asprey Alison Burchell www.renewablesyes.org www.empowerourfuture.org See also http://www.bouldercolorado.gov/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=14232&itemid=4636
2011 Citizen Modeling Boulder s Projected Fuel Mix Assuming Xcel Maintains 2011 Rates Renewable Energy Questions on modeling and graphs to Tom Asprey Contact through www.renewablesyes.org
2011 Citizen Modeling Boulder s Projected Fuel Mix Assuming Xcel Maintains 2011 Rates Replace Natural Gas with Storage and Renewable Energy 2015 2030 Questions on modeling and graphs to Tom AspreyContact through www.renewablesyes.org For 3/2015 Update on Storage, see http://www.utilitydive.com/news/what-sunedisons-big-buy-into-battery-storage-could-offer-utilities/3
Storage Moving Along Well: Tesla Giga Factory Sun Edison Buys Solar Grid Storage US Storage Installations in 2015 Expected to be Approx 22 GW!! (3X of 6.2 GW of 2014) For March 2015 Update on Storage, see Herman Trabish post http://www.utilitydive.com/news/what-sunedisons-big-buy-into-battery-storage-could-offer-utilities/372546/
2013 Boulder Modeling GHG Emissions http://www.bouldercolorado.gov/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=17488&itemid=5738 March 13, 2013 Open House
Boulder Modeling Shows Potential to Raise Renewable % Above 50% Boulder Energy Future February 26, 2013 City Council Packet, Page 25
Case Study Fort Collins
Fort Collins Just Adopted: 80% GHG Reduction by 2030 BAU Efficiency Coal Hydro Natural Gas Coal Extra Efficiency DG Solar Wind Source: Rocky Mountain Institute Fort Collins Stepping It Up Accelerating Fort Collins Climate Goals (2014)
Case Study Xcel
Xcel s Approx. Projected Fuel Mix 2015-2030 Renewable Energy New Wind Natural Gas Coal 2015 2030 Data provided by Xcel to City of Boulder, December 2010 Graph by Tom Asprey w RenewablesYes.org
Xcel s Coal Plants Post Clean Air Clean Jobs Retirements Docket 10M-245E, Colorado PUC, Discovery Response LWG 1-6 Hayden Unit 1 is now scheduled to retire in 2030. See Docket 11A-917E
Xcel s Long Term Commitment to Coal Plants Hayden 1 2030 Hayden 2 2036 Comanche 1 2033 Comanche 2 2035 Pawnee 2041 Comanche 3 2069 Data from Colorado PUC Dockets 10M-245E and 11A-917E
CO2 Equivalents for 1 Million Tons of CO2 Reduction Per Year (Approx 200 MW Coal Plant) 188,997 Cars Off the Road 135,000 Homes Taken Off the Grid 23 Million Seedlings Planted and Kept Alive for 10 years http://www.epa.gov/cleanenergy/energy-resources/calculator.html#results (Accessed 2012)
Example of Xcel Modeling Results September 9, 2013 Costs Up Without More Wind Adding PTC wind, lowers costs Xcel s 120 Day Report, Docket 11A-869E Colorado PUC
Example of Xcel Modeling Results September 9, 2013 Adding PTC Wind Lowers Cost Adding Solar Lowers Cost Xcel s 120 Day Report, Docket 11A-869E Colorado PUC
Xcel s Approx. Projected Fuel Mix 2015-2030 Renewable Energy Natural Gas Coal=Increasing Profits (Short Term ) 2015 2030 Data provided by Xcel to City of Boulder, December 2010 Graph by Tom Asprey w RenewablesYes.org
Xcel s History of Base Rate Increases: 199? 2007 Docket 06S-234EG 2009 Docket 08S-520E 2010 Docket 09AL-299E 2012 Docket 11AL-947E 2013 Docket 11AL-947E 2014 Docket 11AL-947E 2015 Docket 14AL-0660E This does not include rate changes due to fossil fuel costs under the Electric Commodity Adjustment.
Xcel s Pre-Tax Profits Have More than Doubled in Less Than a Decade PSCo s Pre-Tax Profits Profits @ Inflation PSCo Electricity Sales PSCo Capacity 2003 2012 Public Service Company of Colorado s 10-K Reports Empower Our Future Issue Paper #1
Currently Fossil Fuel Costs Are Passed Through to Ratepayers (i.e. you and me) Under the Electric Commodity Adjustment ( ECA ) Typically 2 nd Largest Item on Your Xcel Bill Xcel has 0% of the Risk for Rising Fuel Costs
Case Study Tri State
Tri State Serves Rural Colorado, Wyoming, New Mexico and Western Nebraska
Mostly Coal Coal
Colorado Delivered Coal Costs 2004-2013 Data from Table 4.10B EIA Electric Power Monthly http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/
Coal Costs at TSGT Craig Power Plants More Than Double 2003-2013 Coal Costs Derived From EIA 923 Database at http://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/eia923/
Tri State Fuel and Power Expenses Increasing Much Faster Than Sales Data from Tri State Annual Reports Available From http://www.tristategt.org/financials/annual-report.cfm
State Level Barriers to More Renewable Energy: 1)Fossil Fuel Investments Increase Utility Profits 2)No Consideration of External Costs of Fossil Fuels 3)ECA Pass Through of Fossil Fuel Costs 4)Baseload is Inflexible Not Right Resource for 21 st Century 5) Discounting Future Fuel Costs to Make Them Look. Discounted
Discounting Future Fuel Costs Make Them Look Discounted (PV= Present Value) Graph Courtesy of Dr. Zane Selvans, Clean Energy Action
National Developments 1) EPA Clean Power Plan 2) Carbon Fee (Citizens Climate Lobby) 3) Coal Supply Constraints and the Imperative of Repowering the US
Top 3 US Coal Companies Running Seriously in the Red Source: 2013 Annual 10-K s for Coal Companies. Peabody page 43, Arch page 57. Alpha Natural Page 58
Feeling Stuck???
Build a Team to Help You
What Will Your Team Look Like? Sam Weaver Tom Asprey Alison Burchell www.renewablesyes.org www.empowerourfuture.org See also http://www.bouldercolorado.gov/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=14232&itemid=4636
Moving the Discussion at the Local Level
Some Local Colorado Clean Energy Groups: Boulder Clean Energy Action Pueblo ReVolt Pueblo Colorado Springs Martin Drake Coal Plant Denver Fossil Fuel Free Denver Durango La Plata Electric Association Policies Steamboat Yampa Valley Issues Pagosa Springs Geothermal Development Rural Coops Tri State Policy
Colorado Needs a Bigger Team!!
We Need You!! 15 Minutes/Week Plan Week 1 Research a Topic of Interest Week 2 Find Someone Who Will Help/ Plan a Meeting Week 3 Letter to the Editor (Hint: Start with 3 sentences.) Week 4 Contact Local Elected Official Stir and Repeat
3 Hour Per Day Plan: 9 Hours Per Day Biochem Work 3 Hours Per Day Climate and Energy Work 8 Hours Per Day Sleep 4 Hours Per Day Other
Some Good Resources to Start With: References in this PPT NREL 80% Renewable Energy Mark Jacobson Solutions Project Resource Media Energy Tracker GreenTech Media (GTM) Inside Climate IEEFA (Coal Trends)
Talking to Elected Officials The 3 Point Plan 1)Thank Them for Something 2)Deliver a Message (i.e. information) 3) Make an Ask Go with someone else when you are getting started
Thank You: For Your Service For Your Thoughtful Position For Your Vote on. Etc.
Message: Address Climate Change Save Money with Renewable Energy Keep Our Energy Dollars Local Time to Move to the 21 st Century Etc. Support with data from your research
Ask : Time for Coffee Examine the Carbon Intensity of Our Electricity Write Letter to Xcel About Coal Meet with Officials from Fort Collins or Boulder Etc.
Important Things Take Time. http://www.planetware.com/picture/rouen-rouen-cathedral-f-f1447.htm
Thank You And Remember to Smile: It is the Beginning of the Solar Era!! Leslie Glustrom 303-245-8637 lglustrom@gmail.com
Extra Slides
Repowering and Decarbonizing Colorado Colorado s Wind Potential Approx 96 GW Colorado s Solar Potential Over 200 GW To Meet Peak Demand, Colorado Needs About 12 GW (12,000 MW) Colorado has the Potential for Over 300 GW of Wind and Solar. And Many Companies Ready to Build Projects. Clearly, we can largely decarbonize our electricity--if we decide to do it! Maps and Resource Potential from Colorado Governor s Energy Office Information on Wind and Solar Bids from Xcel Energy
Top 3 US Coal Companies Running Seriously in the Red Source: 2013 Annual 10-K s for Coal Companies. Peabody page 43, Arch page 57. Alpha Natural Page 58
Top 3 US Coal Company Results for 2014 #1 Peabody (BTU) Lost over $700 million in 2014 #2 Arch Coal Inc (ACI) Lost over $500 million in 2014 #3 Alpha Natural Resources Lost Over $800 million in 2014 As reported in Coal Company 2014 Q4 Reports
Boulder s Load 100 MW Baseload i.e. Coal 100 MW baseload
30% Renewable Electricity Around 30% Renewables, Baseload Coal & Nuclear make no sense. 100 MW baseload
50% RE. 0 Battery. 4% Overgeneration
Boulder Modeling GHG Emissions http://www.bouldercolorado.gov/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=17488&itemid=5738 March 13, 2013 Open House
Possible Reductions in CO2 Emissions for Boulder Alternatives Kyoto Compliance http://www.bouldercolorado.gov/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=17488&itemid=5738 March 13, 2013 Open House
Boulder Modeling Renewable Resource Levels http://www.bouldercolorado.gov/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=17488&itemid=5738 March 13, 2013 Open House
STAC 2/9/2012 STAC s Colorado Solar Thermal Roadmap was unveiled in Denver on January 24, 2012 Available online: www.coseia.org/insigh ts/thermal.html www.cresenergy.org/pubs/solart hermalroadmap.pdf
U.S. Solar water heating performance in kwh/year (energy saved using a glycol solar system with a selective surface collector; pg 1). Source: Danny Parker, Florida Solar Energy Center 2/9/2012 Solar Power Colorado 2012 Colorado Solar Thermal Roadmap 78
2005 Coal Deliveries to Power Plants by Region Graphic by Ventyx Red = Powder River Basin