HYDROLOGICAL MODELLING AND THE WATER CYCLE

HYDROLOGICAL MODELLING AND THE WATER CYCLE

Water Science and Technology Library VOLUME 63 Editor-in-Chief V.P. Singh, Texas A&M University, College Station, U.S.A. Editorial Advisory Board M. Anderson, Bristol, U.K. L. Bengtsson, Lund, Sweden J. F. Cruise, Huntsville, U.S.A. U. C. Kothyari, Roorkee, India S. E. Serrano, Philadelphia, U.S.A. D. Stephenson, Johannesburg, South Africa W. G. Strupczewski, Warsaw, Poland For other titles published in this series, go to www.springer.com/series/6689

Soroosh Sorooshian Kuo-Lin Hsu Erika Coppola Barbara Tomassetti Marco Verdecchia Guido Visconti Editors Hydrological Modelling and the Water Cycle Coupling the Atmospheric and Hydrological Models 123

Editors Soroosh Sorooshian E/4130 Engineering Gateway Mail Code 2175 Irvine CA 92697 Civil Engineering Dept, UCI USA soroosh@uci.edu Erika Coppola Via Vetoio 67010 L Aquila CETEMPS University of L Aquila Italy erika.coppola@aquila.infn.it Marco Verdecchia Via Vetoio 67010 L Aquila CETEMPS University of L Aquila Italy marco.verdecchia@aquila.infn.it Kuo-Lin Hsu E/4130 Engineering Gateway Mail Code 2175 Irvine CA 92697 University of California USA kuolinh@uci.edu Barbara Tomassetti Via Vetoio 67010 L Aquila CETEMPS University of L Aquila Italy barbara.tomassetti@aquila.infn.it Guido Visconti Universita L Aquila Dipto. Fisica INFN Unit Via Vetoio, 10 67010 L Aquila Italy guido.visconti@aquila.infn.it ISBN: 978-3-540-77842-4 e-isbn: 978-3-540-77843-1 Library of Congress Control Number: 2008922365 c Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2008, Corrected printing 2009 No part of this work may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, microfilming, recording or otherwise, without written permission from the Publisher, with the exception of any material supplied specifically for the purpose of being entered and executed on a computer system, for exclusive use by the purchaser of the work. Printed on acid-free paper 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 springer.com

Contents Preface... Contributors... vii ix General Review of Rainfall-Runoff Modeling: Model Calibration, Data Assimilation, and Uncertainty Analysis... 1 Hamid Moradkhani and Soroosh Sorooshian Part 1 Measurement of Hydrologic Variables Satellite-Based Precipitation Measurement Using PERSIANN System... 27 Kuo-Lin Hsu and Soroosh Sorooshian Satellite Clouds and Precipitation Observations for Meteorology and Climate... 49 Vincenzo Levizzani Advanced Techniques for Polarimetric Radar Estimation of Rainfall... 69 Gianfranco Vulpiani and Frank S. Marzano Measurements of Hydrological Variables from Satellite: Application to Mediterranean Regions... 93 Francesca Sini, Giorgio Boni and Dara Entekhabi Part 2 Data Merging and Dowscaling Geostatistical Tools for Validation of Satellite and NWP Model Rainfall Estimates...117 David I.F. Grimes v

vi Contents An Ensemble Approach to Uncertainty Estimation for Satellite-Based Rainfall Estimates...145 David I.F. Grimes Part 3 Hydrologic Modelling: Short and Long-Time Scale Cetemps Hydrological Model (CHyM), a Distributed Grid-Based Model Assimilating Different Rainfall Data Sources...165 Marco Verdecchia, Erika Coppola, Barbara Tomassetti and Guido Visconti Rainfall Thresholds for Flood Warning Systems: A Bayesian Decision Approach...203 M.L.V. Martina, E. Todini and A. Libralon Watershed Hydrological Modeling: Toward Physically Meaningful Processes Representation...229 M.L.V. Martina and E. Todini Simulating Climate Impacts on Water Resources: Experience from the Okavango River, Southern Africa...243 Martin C. Todd, Lotta Andersson, Denis A. Hughes, Dominic Kniveton, Russell Layberry, Michael Murray-Hudson, Hubert H.G. Savenije, Julie Wilk and Piotr Wolski Colour Plate Section...267 Index...291

Preface This volume is a collection of a selected number of articles based on presentations at the 2005 L Aquila (Italy) Summer School on the topic of Hydrologic Modeling and Water Cycle: Coupling of the Atmosphere and Hydrological Models. The primary focus of this volume is on hydrologic modeling and their data requirements, especially precipitation. As the field of hydrologic modeling is experiencing rapid development and transition to application of distributed models, many challenges including overcoming the requirements of compatible observations of inputs and outputs must be addressed. A number of papers address the recent advances in the State-of-the-art distributed precipitation estimation from satellites. A number of articles address the issues related to the data merging and use of geo-statistical techniques for addressing data limitations at spatial resolutions to capture the heterogeneity of physical processes. The participants at the School came from diverse backgrounds and the level of interest and active involvement in the discussions clearly demonstrated the importance the scientific community places on challenges related to the coupling of atmospheric and hydrologic models. Along with my colleagues Dr. Erika Coppola and Dr. Kuolin Hsu, co-directors of the School, we greatly appreciate the invited lectures and all the participants. The members of the local organizing committee, Drs Barbara Tomassetti; Marco Verdecchia and Guido Visconti were instrumental in the success of the school and their contributions, both scientifically and organizationally are much appreciated. Irvine, USA Soroosh Sorooshian vii

(See also Plate 36 in the Colour Plate Section)

Contributors Lotta Andersson Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, S-601 76 Norrköping, Sweden, e-mail: lotta.andersson@smhi.se Giorgio Boni CIMA, Centro di Ricerca Interuniversitario in Monitoraggio Ambientale, Università degli Studi di Genova e della Basilicata, Savona, Italy, e-mail: boni@cima.unige.it Erika Coppola The Abdus Salam Centre for Theoretical Physic, Trieste Italy; Centre of Excellence CETEMPS University of L Aquila, L Aquila, Italy, e-mail: coppolae@ictp.it Dara Entekhabi Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA, e-mail: darae@mit.edu David I.F. Grimes TAMSAT, Dept of Meteorology, University of Reading, RG6 6BB, Reading, UK, e-mail: d.i.f.grimes@reading.ac.uk Hubert H.G. Savenije Delft University of Technology, P.O. Box 5048, 2600 GA, Delft, The Netherlands, e-mail: h.h.g.savenije@tudelft.nl Kuo-Lin Hsu Center of Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing (CHRS), Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA, e-mail: kuolinh@uci.edu Denis A. Hughes Institute for Water Research, Rhodes University, Grahamstown, South Africa, e-mail: denis@iwr.ru.ac.za ix

x Contributors Dominic Kniveton University of Sussex, Falmer, Brighton, BN 1 9 QJ, UK, e-mail: D.R.Kniveton@sussex.ac.uk Russell Layberry University of Sussex, Falmer, Brighton, BN 1 9 QJ, UK, e-mail: russell.layberry@eci.ox.ac.uk Vincenzo Levizzani Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Istituto di Scienze dell Atmosfera e del Clima, Bologna, Italy, e-mail: v.levizzani@isac.cnr.it A. Libralon Department of Earth and Geo-Environmental Sciences, University of Bologna, Piazza di Porta San Donato, 1, Bologna 40126, Italy, e-mail: libralon@geomin.unibo.it M.L.V. Martina Department of Earth and Geo-Environmental Sciences, University of Bologna, Piazza di Porta San Donato, 1, Bologna 40126, Italy, e-mail: martina@geomin.unibo.it Frank S. Marzano Centre of Excellence CETEMPS University of L Aquila, L Aquila, Italy; Department of Electronic Engineering, University of Rome La Sapienza, Rome, Italy, e-mail: marzano@die.uniroma1.it Hamid Moradkhani Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Portland State University, Portland, OR, USA, e-mail: hamidm@cecs.pdx.edu Michael Murray-Hudson Harry Oppenheimer Okavango Research Centre, University of Botswana, Private Bag 285, Maun, Botswana, e-mail: mmurray-hudson@orc.ub.bw Francesca Sini Centro Funzionale Regionale, Dipartimento per le Politiche Integrate di Sicurezza e per la Protezione Civile, Regione Marche, Ancona, Italy, e-mail: francesca.sini@regione.marche.it Soroosh Sorooshian Center of Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing (CHRS), Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA, e-mail: soroosh@uci.edu

Contributors xi Martin C. Todd Department of Geography, University College of London, 26 Bedford Way London WC1H 0AP, United Kingdom, e-mail: m.todd@geog.ucl.ac.uk E. Todini Department of Earth and Geo-Environmental Sciences, University of Bologna, Piazza di Porta San Donato, 1, Bologna 40126, Italy, e-mail: todini@geomin.unibo.it Barbara Tomassetti Centre of Excellence CETEMPS University of L Aquila, L Aquila, Italy, e-mail: barbara.tomassetti@aquila.infn.it Marco Verdecchia Centre of Excellence CETEMPS University of L Aquila, L Aquila, Italy; Department of Physics University of L Aquila, Italy, e-mail: marco.verdecchia@aquila.infn.it Guido Visconti Centre of Excellence CETEMPS University of L Aquila, L Aquila, Italy; Department of Physics University of L Aquila, Italy, e-mail: guido.visconti@aquila.infn.it Gianfranco Vulpiani Météo France, Direction des Systems d Observations, Trappes, France, e-mail: gianfranco.vulpiani@gmail.com Julie Wilk Department of Water and Environmental Studies, Linköping University, S-581 83 Linköping, Sweden, e-mail: julie.wilk@smhi.se Piotr Wolski Harry Oppenheimer Okavango Research Centre, University of Botswana, Private Bag 285, Maun, Botswana, e-mail: pwolski@orc.ub.bw