Herbicide Resistance a global issue: Economic impact and farmer s reaction

Transcription

1 : Economic impact and farmer s reaction Dr. Thomas de Witte Thünen Institute of Farm Economics Seite November 1 8 th 2015 Sugarcane production in Brazil Datum Agritechnica, Hannover Balieiro, 2015

2 Agenda 1. What is agri benchmark? 2. Global Development of Herbicide Resistance 3. Insights into the hot spot regions UK Australia Iowa Brazil 4. Conclusion Page 2

3 Who we are and what we do 1. agri benchmark is a global, non-profit network of agricultural economists, advisors and producers. 2. We use internationally standardized methods to analyze typical farms, their production systems and their profitability. 3. We combine our farm-level knowledge with our expertise in international commodity markets and value chains. 4. Thereby we are want to provide scientifically consistent and soundly based answers on strategic issues in arable farming. Page 3

4 Why do we do this? 1. Understanding growers needs and constraints is the base to improve products and services. 2. Understanding trends in global crop production allows you to adjust strategies. 3. Understanding agronomical and economic drivers of current production systems is the basis for innovations. 4. Understanding strengths and weaknesses of production systems is needed for right decisions. Page 4

5 Present in all major countries and crops Crop coverage : Corn Soybeans Wheat Sugar beet Rice Rapeseed Oats Rye (Malting) barley Sunflower Sorghum Cotton Peas Beans Palm oil Sugar cane Countries participating in agri benchmark Cash Crop Countries to come online 2014/15 Priorities for new partnerships Page 5

6 Major clients and research partners Page 6

7 Agenda 1. What is agri benchmark? 2. Global Development of Herbicide Resistance 3. Insights into the hot spot regions UK Australia Iowa Brazil 4. Summary Page 7

8 Count of Confirmed Resistant Biotypes (2008) Herbicide resistance is a global problem Page 8 Sources: Wrucke 2014, Heap 2008

9 Count of Confirmed Resistant Biotypes (2012) and it`s growing Page 9 Sources: Wrucke 2014, Heap 2008

10 Decreasing number of patents increasing regulatory risk longer development cycles increasing development cost Source: Bayer Crop Science Page 10

11 Agenda 1. What is agri benchmark? 2. Global Development of Herbicide Resistance 3. Insights into the hot spot regions UK Australia Iowa Brazil 4. Summary Page 11

12 What we did Asked our partner to give an overview on the development of herbicide resistance in their countries Asked them to create future scenarios Estimated the future economic impact by calculation the average return to land (ground rent) for the scenarios on our typical farms Page 12

13 Illustration of the Scenarios Base scenario: Represents the status quo Scenario A: Increasing herbicide resistance which can be solved with more or other but more expensive herbicides or GM-seeds. Scenario B: Available herbicides are not effective enough anymore, therefore smaller adaptations in the rotation or tillage strategy becomes necessary. Scenario C: The issue becomes really heavy which makes significant changes in management strategies (rotation, tillage ) necessary. Page 13

14 Insights from the UK Ben Lang University of Cambridge Department of Land Economy Cambridge, United Kingdom Page 14

15 Main Problem Weed Black grass Alopecurus myosuroides Annual Weed Emergence August October favors moist soils with relatively high clay content Some infestations >1,000 heads/m² 80 to 150 seeds per seed head Resistance to ACCase- and ALS- and Photosynthesis-inhibitors (HRAC Groups A,B,C) Page 15

16 UK Blackgrass incidence On more than 16,000 farms Especially on wet soils with high clay content UK440SUFF Rainfall: 590 mm 400 ha arable land Wheat: 8.5 t/ha Rapeseed: 3.45 t/ha Beans: 3.4 t/ha Page 16

17 Main resistance drivers in the UK Increased winter cropping Shorter rotations due to economic pressure Earlier wheat drilling Adoption of minimal cultivation methods Reduced number of approved herbicides Recent years have brought wet weather and a greater blackgrass problem, but greater awareness of the problem. Page 17

18 Management Options: Results from field trials Number of experiments 1 Ploughing 25 69% 2 Delayed autumn drilling 19 31% 3 Higher seed rates 16 26% 4 Competitive cultivars 5 22% 5 Spring cropping 5 88% Mean reduction of seed reservoir 6 Fallow/grass lays 70-80% per year 7 Combination of 1,2,3&4 potential 99% Page 18

19 Calculated Scenarios for the 440 SUFF farm Description Base Scenario a Scenario b Current black grass situation - stubble Gly, - Premerge (Avadex) - Mixture of pendimehtadin, flufenacet, diflufenican - Atlantis in the spring 5% lower wheat yield 25% spring barley (5,8 t/ha) + 5% herbicide costs 5% lower wheat yield 25% spring barley 12% sheep + 5% herbicide costs Page 19

20 Economic Estimation /ha current blackgrass conditions 25% spring barley +5% herbicide costs 25% spring barley 10% Sheep +5% herbicide costs return to land current land rents rel. decrease of return to land 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Introduction of summer crops reduction of 20% If pasture becomes necessary reduction up to 35% Page 20

21 Insights from Western Australia Ashley Herbert Agrarian Management Consultant Perth, Western Australia Page 21

22 Main Problem Weeds in Western Australia Wild radish Raphanus raphanistrum Broadleef weed Multiple germinations per season Resistance to MoA Groups B, C, F, I First Glyphosate resistance occurred (G) Annual Ryegrass Lolium rigidum extreme high number of seeds Very competitive Resistance to MoA Groups A, B, C,D,K1 Also Glyphosate resistance (G) Page 22

23 Distribution of herbicide resistance in Australia AU4000WB Low rainfall - 320mm 3,500ha arable land 80% crop, 20% pasture Wheat 1.8t/ha Barley 1.9 t/ha Canola 0.8t/ha Page 23

24 Main resistance drivers in Western Australia Major change to the farming system in the mid 90 s : 1. Significant reduction of sheep profitability 2. Cropping technology revolution: Introduction of selective pre & post emergent herbicides Minimum tillage Increased capacity of cropping machinery Which lead to: An increase in cropping intensity Rapid adoption & dependence on selective herbicides Widespread use of below label application rates Page 24

25 Management Options : Harvest Seed Weed Control Windrow Burning Chaff Cart Glenvar Bale Direct System Harrington Seed Destructor Page 25

26 Effectiveness of HWSC Page 26

27 Calculated Scenarios for the 4000 WB farm Description Base Scenario a Scenario b Scenario c Knock down: 1.5l Gly + 1l Sprayseed + 118g Sakura Early post em: 0.5 l Velocity l MCPA Late post em: 0,8l Ester l Jaguar - Higher chemical use (+15 /ha) - RR canola (+40 /ha) - Higher chemical use (+15 /ha) - RR canola (+40 /ha) - Including HSWC - Increased pasture spraying (+10 /ha) - Higher chemical use (+15 /ha) - Including HSWC - Rapeseed dropped from the rotation - 33% arable land as pasture Page 27

28 Economic Estimation /ha base scenario additional herbicides GMO rapeseed additional herbicides GMO rapeseed chaff cart additional herbicides chaff cart no rapeseed 33% pasture return to land current land rents rel. chage of return to land 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Reduction in return to land of 20-30% seems as a realistic scenario Page 28

29 Insights from Iowa Kelvin Leibold Iowa State University Extension Area Farm Mgt. Phone Page 29

30 Main Problem Weeds in Iowa Waterhemp aranthus tuberculatus Broadleef weed Seed remain up to 3 years in the soil Resistance to ALSinhibitors and Glyphosate Giant Ragweed Ambrosia trifida Up to 5,000 seeds per plant 1 plant/m² can reduce corn yields by >10% Resistance to ALSinhibitors and Glyphosate Horseweed Conyza canadensis a winter or summer annual life cycle Less competitive Resistance to ALSinhibitors and Glyphosate Page 30

31 Distribution of Glyphosate resistance in the US US700IA Rainfall: 890 mm 730 ha arable land Soybean-corn rotation soybeans: 3.3 t/ha corn: 10.9 t/ha Page 31

32 Main resistance drivers in the Midwest Sole reliance on glyphosate by many producers is believed to be the primary factor corn, cotton, soybeans Reduced number of herbicides used Less deep tillage leaving more seeds at the surface Move to no-till soybeans (45% vs. 25% in corn) Less crop rotation Eliminated row crop cultivation Earlier planting dates Reduced rates or combination half rates Page 32

33 Management Options Option Drawbacks Adoptionrate MOA mixtures and rotation Adjusted herbicide rates Lack of new available MOA Higher rates higher target side selection Lower rates higher non target side selection Primary tillage Increased soil erosion, time, costs medium New HR-traits Lack of diversity, high selection pressure low high high Cover crops Crop rotations Inconsistent effect on HR-weeds, lack of knowledge, increased water consumption? Low economic performance of other crops, Iowa crops to similar to increase diversity Robots Still in development stage NA low low Page 33

34 Description of the scenarios Herbicide strategy Herbicide costs Spray trips Operating costs Base 2 post emerge glyphosate corn: 50 /ha soybeans: 45 /ha 2 corn: 400 /ha soybeans: 250 /ha Scenario a + residual herbicide with first spray corn: + 15 /ha soybeans: +10 /ha 2 Scenario b + residual + pre emerge herbicide corn: +20 /ha soybeans: +15 /ha /ha Scenario c +residual +pre emerge +row crop tillage corn: +20 /ha soybeans: +15 /ha /ha Page 34

35 Economic Estimation /ha base: gly +residual +residual + pre emerge -55 /ha +residual + pre emerge +tillage return to land current land rents rel. change on return to land 20% 10% 0% Glyphosate resistance is an increasing issue but still good to handle More complex management strategies might cause up 10% higher costs Page 35

36 Insights from Brazil (Parana) Edmar Udo Klein Fazenda Esperanza Guarapuava, Parana Page 36

37 Main glyphosate resistant weeds Conyza sumatrensis White horseweed Annual Weed Emergence July September Light seed (easily widespread) Up to seeds per plant Some biotypes also resistant to ALS Digitaria insularis (Sourgrass) Perennial Weed Rhizoms Grows all over the year Drought resistant Develops in offseason Best controlled before formation of rhizoms Page 37

38 Regional Spread of Conyza spp. and D. insularis Conyza BR195PR Rainfall: 1,900 mm 160 ha arable land 80% soybeans : 3.05 t/ha 20% corn: 9.4 t/ta 80% corn: 5.3 t/ha 20% winter wheat: 2.5 t/ha Digitaria insularis Page 38

39 Main resistance drivers in Parana Limited Crop rotation: Soybeans as main Crop Soybeans: >90% Roundup Ready No-till System -> highly herbicide dependent to manage weeds Massive usage of glyphosate -> high selective pressure Some carelessness Page 39

40 Management Options Current practices: Higher spraying rates Association of Herbicides: tank mixtures (!!) Sequential spraying of Herbicides In Discussion: Interseason management days after soybeans Prevent weed development/ seed spreading Intercrop weed control Systemic herbicides / Residual herbicides Brachiaria as a cover crop after corn Increase tillage Hope to chemical solutions GM-traits: Liberty Link; DOW Enlist: Glyp. + 2,4-D + AG Herbicides: Saflufenafil (HRAC Group E) Older products: Extension of register Page 40

41 Description of the scenarios Scenario Herbicide strategy Herbicide costs Base Gly + 2,4-D fob contact herbicide soybeans: 31 /ha a b c + graminicide + preemergent residual + intercrop management: Gly + 2,4-D + preemergent residual + graminicide + preemergent residual Deep tillage+ disk harrow + graminicide +87 /ha Operating costs soybeans: 285 /ha +115 /ha + 5 /ha +90 /ha + 80 /ha Page 41

42 Economic estimation /ha % 40% 30% 20% 10% 0 base: Gly+2,4-D fb contact + graminicide + graminicide + preemergence+ preemergence +intercrop A decrease in return to land of 20-30% seems as an realistic scenario Tillage was seen as an extreme scenario! tillage +chem. regrowth cont. return to land current land rent rel. decrease of return to land 0% Page 42

43 Conclusion Herbicide is a severe issue and not limited to singular events Strong increase in RR-systems; but still relatively easy to handle Pre emergence residual and selective herbicides available High cost increase in BR ( %) vs. moderate increase in the Midwest (5%) Tillage is always seen as the last solution More complex and expensive in wheat Less options for alternative herbicides Decrease in return to land of 20-30% Adopted rotations decrease in return to land up to 30% (UK) and 50 % (AUS) Plant protection strategies will become more complex Page 43

44 Thank you for your interest in agri benchmark. Dr. Thomas de Witte Thünen Institute of Farm Economics Bundesallee 50, Braunschweig Germany phone internet Page 44

45 Higher costs and increased registration risk increasing regulatory risk Increasing development cost Decreasing number of active substances Page 45

46 USD/ha past base a b base a b c base a b c base a b c UK AUS Midwest Brazil 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% rapeseed wheat return to land current land rents soybeans corn Just moderate economic implications in the Midwest if tools work BR lost in return to land > 20% very likely In wheat dominated systems 20 to 40% reduction of return to land Page 46

47 Conclusions Herbicide is a severe issue and not limited to singular events Strong increase in GR-systems; but still relatively easy to handle Pre emergence residual and selective herbicides available High cost increase in BR vs. moderate increase in the Midwest Options for combinations with tillage More complex and expensive in wheat Less options for alternative herbicides adopted rotations decrease in return to land of % Big differences between single farms depending on management practices Page 47

48 Conclusions UK As our illustration shows, some farmers are making major changes to secure future profitable wheat production Page 48

49 Conclusions for Western Australia 1. Resistance is inevitable when there is dependence on selective herbicides. 1. Below label rates is a false economy 2. Weed control becomes more expensive and complex. 3. Maintaining a low weed seed bank is essential to prolonging the effectiveness of existing herbicides. 4. Adoption of HWSC methods significantly improves weed control. Page 49

50 Conclusion Iowa Herbicide resistance is an increasing issue in the Midwest more than 50% of the fields have multiple resistance potential risk to 30% yield losses (> 500 $/ha) BUT: good options to minimize it Much more awareness to the issue since 2010 increased research and training Back to more complex management systems spraying and tillage Additional costs might reduce the return to land up to 70 USD/ha New HR-traits (liberty link, 2,4-D) might result into old behavior Page 50

51 Agenda 1. What is agri benchmark? 2. Herbicide resistance as a global issue 3. Introduction to the Survey 4. Results from UK Australia Iowa Brazil 5. Summary Page 51

52 Summary I. agri benchmark has proved to be a suitable platform to analyze production systems and costs for sugarcane worldwide II. III. IV. The major sugar exporting countries are already represented in our database aiming to include others like India, Columbia, etc. These are only raw material costs IMPORTANT to include industrial costs (i.e. major difference in factory utilization, energy balance, etc.) agri benchmark data can also be used to analyze how policies, market changes and gov. programs might affect farm level competiveness and triggers changes in the world markets. Page 52

53 Economic implications on typical farm Base scenario: Glyphosate + 2,4-D followed by contact herbicide Scenario A: Glyphosate + 2,4-D followed by contact herbicide + graminicide + preemergent residual Scenario B: + intercrop management: Glyphosate + 2,4-D + residual preemergent Glyphosate + 2,4-D followed by contact herbicide graminicide + preemergent residual Scenario c: Deep tillage+ disk harrow Gliphosate + 2,4-D + graminicide followed by contact Tillage only if strictly necessary! Page 53

54 UK: Case study farm: grassweed herbicide costs Page 54

55 UK: Case study farm: Cropping Page 55

56 Herbicide market 2011 per crop and mode of action Page 56

57 Page 57

58 Knockdown Early post em Late post em Cost ($/ha) 1995 Gly Logran 35g MCPA 0.5 L+Logran 5g + Ally 5g $24 - $ Gly L + Logran 35g MCPA 0.5L + Logran 5g + Ally 5g Ester 400mL $37 - $41 + Trifluralin L Gly L + Trifluralin L MCPA 0.5 L + Jaguar 0.3L Ester 0.6L + Logran 10g $40 - $ Gly L Velocity 0.5L + MCPA 0.5L Ester 0.8L + Jaguar 300mL $90 Sprayseed 1.0L + Sakura 118g

59 Current practices and coming strategies Higher spraying rates Association of Herbicides: tank mixtures (!!) Sequential spraying of Herbicides Season Pre planting Post emergence 1 Post emergence /12 2,2 l Glyp. 2 l Glyp. 1,2 l Glyp. 5,4 l 2012/13 3 l Glyp. + 1 l 2,4-D 2 l Glyp. 5 l 2013/14 3 l Glyp. + 1 l 2,4-D 2 l Glyp. 2 l Glyp. 7 l fb 2 l Paraquat Future???????? Source: adopted Cepea, 2014 Total Glyphosate