EFFECT OF CLIMATIC VARIABLES ON CASSAVA FARMERS PRODUCTION IN ABIA STATE, NIGERIA

Transcription

1 EFFECT OF CLIMATIC VARIABLES ON CASSAVA FARMERS PRODUCTION IN ABIA STATE, NIGERIA ABSTRACT Nwaobiala 1, C. U. and Nottidge 2, D. O. 1 Department of Rural Sociology and Extension Michael Okpara University of Agriculture Umudike, Abia State, Nigeria 2 Federal College of Agriculture Ishiagu Ebonyi State, Nigeria. Corresponding Author s cunwaobiala@gmail.com The resultant effect of climatic variables on arable crop production especially cassava in a developing country as Nigeria has led to poor yield, poverty, non access to food and relegating and abandoning farming as a mean of livelihood. The effect of climate variables (temperature, rainfall and relative humidity) on cassava farmers production in Abia State, Nigeria from was studied and analyzed in A multistage random sampling technique was used in the selection of agricultural blocks, circles and cassava farmers. A structured questionnaire was administered to 120 randomly selected cassava farmers. Data was analyzed with trend analysis and descriptive statistics. Data for annual yield of cassava for all the time period were obtained from National Agricultural Extension Research and Liaison Services Ahmadu Bello University Zaria. Data on the three important climate variables required for cassava growth- temperature, rainfall and relative humidity were obtained from National Root Crops Research Institute Umudike meteorological station. The result of time trend analysis showed that the coefficient for temperature which was positively signed and rainfall negatively signed had effects on the output of cassava between Policies aimed at organizing regularly trainings on climate change for farmers by extension agencies and research institutes, accessibility of farmers to meteorological data and provision of rural infrastructure to curb rural-urban migration by the youths will help provide cheap labour were advocated for increased cassava production. Keywords: Effect, Climate, Variables, Cassava Farmers, Production INTRODUCTION The world s climate is changing at rates that are projected to be unpredicted in recent human history. For instance, the third Assessment Report of IPCC indicated that global average surface temperature increased by about during the 20 th century (IPCC, 2001). Recent modelling work indicates that the temperature increases by 2100 may be larger than those estimated in 2001 (Stainforth et al., 2005). Thus, the effects of climate are likely to be highly spatially variable. For instance, mid-to-high latitude crop productivity may increase slightly as local mean temperature increases between 1 0 C 3 0 C, depending on the crop, while at lower latitudes crop productivity is projected to decrease for even relatively small local temperature increase of 10 0 C 20 0 C (IPCC, 2007). Across the country, from the north to the south, millions of farmers are already experiencin0g, and reaching to, changing seasonal patterns of rainfall, temperature and more frequent weather events, leading to drought and flooding and storms surges along the coast. Climate is average weather with the variability from this average it is in fact, the synthesis of the weather in a given place over a period of at least 30 years. The main elements of weather itself include temperature, rainfall, dew, humidity, wind, sunshine, mist, haze and cloud. It is the collective pattern of expression, not just in one element of weather; it is permanent departure of climate patterns from mean value of observed climate indices. (Obioha, 2002). Nigeria is an integral part of the global ecosystem and so contributes to and is affected by global environmental problems (Ekong, 2003). These problems according to him include deforestation, desertification, pollution, degradation of green house, gases emission. The effects of climate elements and their extremes include the significant alteration of crop production; this is because crop yield is the product of both growth and development. Temperature and rainfall patterns provide major constraint on primary productivity, which in turn determines secondary productivity for instance; cassava growth failure can result if rain does not fall at all under rain-fed agriculture, or if it does fall at the eastern states of the country, which can cause erosion and leaching of the soil nutrient leading to low output. According to a report published by the Federal Ministry of Environment (FME, 2006), Nigeria with a population of about 140 million and with an area of 932,000Km 2 with various activities being carried out by this vast population coupled with variability in elements of climate such as rainfall and temperature, exposes the country to impact of climate change. The negative impact of climate change such as temperature rise, erratic rainfall, sandstorms, desertification, low agricultural yield; drying up of water bodies and flooding, are real in many states of Nigeria. The indications that climate change is occurring are trend in warming temperatures, varying rainfall patterns, more frequent extreme weather events (such as storms, high rainfall intensity, floods, droughts, and heat waves). In a report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), it has been observed that in the 21 st century, global warming would be more intense in many parts of the world, especially Africa, the Caribbean and NJAFE VOL. 9 No. 4,

2 parts of South-East Asia largely due to their inability to cope. Africa is considered to be the world s most vulnerable region with regard to the effects of climate change due to the fragility of economies (IPCC, 2007). Human activity has already changed atmospheric characteristics such as temperature, rainfall, level of carbon dioxide and ground level ozone thus affecting food production posing challenges for farmers. These impacts on social and economic sector depend upon their production since the economy and food supply are so closely linked to climate. Significant variations in climate events have profound effects on society. In these circumstances can be as a hazard rather than a resource. Each of such hazardous events may be judged by characteristic influence such as magnitude of frequency, velocity and duration (Diebold, 2007). Yesuf et al., (2008) reported that over the coming decades, higher temperatures and changing precipitation levels caused by climatic change will be unfavourable for crop growth in many regions and countries. Climate in the tropics as in other parts of the world is subject to substantial variations both in space and this exerts tremendous influence on the yield as well as the types of crops grown. Since the economy of most parts of the tropics is dependent on agriculture, the role of climate as natural resource in relation to agriculture is mostly felt. In Nigeria, agriculture is the main source of food and major employer of labour employing about 60% of the population. It is predominantly a rain fed system and hence vulnerable to climate change (NFNC, 2003). Dominant crops cultivated in the country include yam, cassava, maize, sorghum, millet, rice and among others. Cassava (Manihot esculenta crantz) is an important staple food and cash crop in several tropical countries especially Nigeria where it plays a principal role in food economy. Cassava has special attribute which is thriving well even in extreme conditions of drought and such has been called the famine security crop (Awa and Tumanteh, 2001). Nigeria is the world s producer of cassava, with about 4 Despite the fact that the plant grows and produces well in the Nigeria environment, it 7,274,32mt and yield of 13,027 tonnes/ha. The South-East zone is leading in cassava production accounting for over 37% of the National production (NAERLS and NFRA, 2009). Despite the fact that the plant grows and produces well in the Nigeria environment, it has shown different growth behaviour and yield in different years as a result of differences in the annual weather condition. This is because climate variability has possibility of degrading soil and water resources and subsequently subsistence agricultural production, which is largely practised by root and tuber crops farmers (Pidwirny and Sidney, 2007). It is projected that crop yield in Africa may fall by 10-20% by 2050 or even up to 50% due to climate change (Jones and Thornton, et al 2003). Particularly because African agriculture is predominantly rain-fed and hence fundamentally dependent on the vagaries of weather, as the people of Africa strive to deepen vulnerabilities, erode hard-won gains and seriously undermine prospect for development (Zoellick, 2009). Several studies on climate change and agriculture has focused on its agricultural and biological consequences to the neglect of its socioeconomic consequences. There is equally a wide gap in knowledge of the effect of climatic variables on agricultural production in most agro-ecological zone of Nigeria (Adejuwon, 2004; Molua and Lambi, 2007). However, research has failed to provide critical simultaneous insights of the trend of climatic variables in the study area (temperature, relative humidity and rain) affecting crop growth and yield. The above scenario has made it very necessary and indeed imperative to assess the effect of climatic variables on cassava farmers production in Abia State, Nigeria. The specific objectives were to; describe selected socio-economic characteristics of cassava farmers in the study area. determine effect of weather elements such as rain, temperature and relative humidity on the output of cassava farmers over the period of ascertain farmers problems in coping with the effects of climate change on cassava output in the study area. Research Hypothesis H 0: Climatic variables do not have significant effect on cassava production in Abia State. MATERIALS AND METHODS Study area This study was conducted in Abia State, Nigeria. Abia State lies between longitudes 7 o 23 1 and 8 o 2 1 East of the equator and latitudes 4 o 47 1 and 6 o 12 1 North of the Greenwich Meridian. The State is located East of Imo State and shares common boundaries with Anambra, Enugu and Ebonyi States in the North West and North East respectively. On the East and South East, it is bounded by Cross River and Akwa Ibom States and by Rivers State on the South. Abia State is made up of 17 local government areas and most of the people especially, the rural dwellers are engaged mainly in subsistence farming. They engage in arable crop production such as cassava, yam, rice, maize and sweet potatoes. Sample size and data analysis The research was conducted in the three agricultural zones of Abia State namely Umuahia, Ohafia and Aba. A list of cassava farmers were collected from Agricultural Development Project (ADP) which formed the sampling NJAFE VOL. 9 No. 4,

3 frame. A multistage random sampling technique was used in the selection of agricultural blocks, circles and cassava farmers. First two (2) blocks each were randomly selected from the three agricultural zones (Umuahia zone Ikwuano block, Isiala Ngwa North, Ohafia zone Uzuakoli block, Isuikwuato block, Aba zone Obingwa block and Ukwa West) to give a total of 6 blocks. From the selected blocks two circles were randomly selected to give a total of 12 circles. Finally, ten cassava farmers each were randomly selected from the selected circles and this gave a sample size of 120 cassava farmers. A structured questionnaire was used in soliciting information from the farmers. Data on annual yield of cassava were obtained from National Agricultural Extension Research Liaison Services (NAERLS) Ahmadu Bello University Umudike, Abia State, while National Root Crops Research Institute meteorological station Umudike, Abia State provided climatic data on temperature, rain and relative humidity Objectives I and iii was achieved using descriptive statistics such as frequency counts, percentages and mean scores, while objective ii was realized with Trend analysis. Problems associated with coping the resultant effects of climate change among farmers was measured using a 6 item statement rated on a 3-point likert type scale of very serious 3, moderately serious 2 and less serious.. A midpoint was obtained thus; =6/3 =2.00. Based on the mid score decision rule, any mean score greater than or equal to 2.00 implied a serious problem and mean score less than 3.00 denotes no serious problem. Model specification The model for trend analysis was used in accordance with Diebold (2007) and Okoye et al., (2008). LnY = b 0 + b 1t + bir + b,rh + ei Where, Y = output of cassava (tons/ha); rh = relative humidity (%); r = rainfall (mm); t = temperature ( 0 C); ei = stochastic error term Selected socio-economic characteristics of cassava farmers The result in Table 01 shows that a good proportion (55.00%) of the farmers was males. This shows that cassava farming in the study area is dominated by men. A moderate proportion (34.17%) of the farmers was aged between years. This implies that the farmers were in their productive age of accepting and making farm decisions with regards to coping with effects of climate change. This result conforms to the findings of Ojo (1999) who asserts that conservativeness of the farmer, his risk-bearing ability to cope with after effects of natural disaster and manual labour decreases with advancing age. The Table also reveal that a fairly good proportion (40.83%) of the farmers acquired secondary education. Education is essential factor for affecting desirable changes in attitude, skills and knowledge of individuals (Unamma et al., 2004). A moderate proportion (32.50%) of the respondents cultivate of farm size ranging between hectares. The result implies that most of the farmers own small sizes of farmland. This may be attributable to the land tenure system prevalent in the study area which encourages small holdings. IPCC (2007) further reports that the tropical forest and rangeland are under threat from population pressure and system of land use. The result indicates that a fairly good proportion of the farmers had between years farming experience. This result agrees with Shetty (2005) who reported that more farming experience improves awareness of potential benefits and willingness to participate in local natural resource management and conservation activities. T1his implies that the respondents were widely experienced, matured and could achieve a better understanding of adaptation strategies. A good proportion (54.17%) of the respondents had between N101, ,000 annual farm income. The poor income level of farmers could be attributed to the subsistence level of farming prevalent in the rural areas (Akpabio, 2005). Determination of effect of time on weather elements on cassava production in Abia State, Nigeria ( ) The effect of weather elements such as temperature, relative humidity and rain were regressed with total output of cassava as dependent variable (Y). In all the four functional forms, the R 2 were statistically significant at 1.00% level of probability. The linear regression form was chosen as the lead equation because of high R 2 value, number of significant variables and agreement with a priori expectation. The R 2 value of indicates a 53.18% variability of cassava output explained by the weather elements. The F-values was also highly significant at 1.00% indicating a regression of best fit. The result of linear regression analysis in Table 03 indicates that the coefficient for temperature ( ) was positively signed and statistically significant at 5.00% level of probability. This implies that a 1.00% increase in temperature will lead to a 99% increase in cassava output from This result is in agreement with a priori expectation. Eid et al (2006) affirmed that increase in temperature will speed up crop growth cycles, especially cassava which is a root crop that strives in extreme weather conditions. The coefficient for rain ( ) was negatively signed and statistically significant at 10.00% level of probability. This implies that a NJAFE VOL. 9 No. 4,

4 1.00% increase in rainfall will lead to a 0.29% decrease in cassava output. This is in disagreement with a priori expectation since rain which results to soil moisture encourages crop growth and development. This result is not surprising because cassava has special attribute which is thriving well even in extreme conditions of drought and such has been called the famine security crop (Awa and Tumanteh, 2001). Table 1: Distribution of cassava farmers according to selected socio-economic variables in Abia State, Nigeria Variables Frequency Percentage Gender Male Female Age (years) Education No formal education Primary education Secondary education Tertiary education Farm size (ha) Farming Experience (years) Annual Farm income 50, , , , , , Source: Field Survey Data, 2012 N = 120 Table 2: Regression estimates of the effect of time on temperature, relative humidity and rain on cassava production in Abia State, Nigeria ( ). Variables Linear + Exponential Cobb-Douglas Semi Log Constant *** (-0.96) *** (-1.63*) *** (-1.82*) *** (-0.93) Temperature (X1) (2.26**) (2.32**) (2.45**) (2.40**) Relative Humidity (X2) (-0.61) (0.89) (0.94) (-0.53) Rain (X3) (-1.2*) (-1.63*) (-1.41*) (-1.12*) R R Adjusted F ratio 8.98*** 6.12*** 5.89*** 8.15*** Source: Field Survey Data, 2011 * Significant at 10.00% level of probability; ** Significant at 5.00% level of probability; *** Significant at 1.00% level of probability + Lead equation Identification of farmers problems coping with effects climate change in Abia State, Nigeria The result in Table 3 showed that 65 percent and percent of the farmers with mean of 2.83 and 2.44 indicated that non access to meteorological data and irregular training on climate change pestilence was major problems farmers face in coping with the resultant effects of climate change in the study area. Data on annual climate variation have shown to guide farmers on timing, type of crop variety to plant and adaptation measures to adapt in coping with climate change effects. Farmers complained of inefficiency in extension delivery in the state NJAFE VOL. 9 No. 4,

5 (43.33%) with a mean of 2.27 as another problem. This is not surprising because Agricultural Development Programmes (ADP s) being the sole agency responsible for extension service in the country is faced with myriads of problems ranging from poor funding and extension agent- farmer ratio (Naswem, 2007). This has drastically affected technology dissemination and awareness on climate change effects and variability. The farmers also identified shortage of labour (35.8%) and traditional land tenure system (35%) with mean ratings of 2.04 and 2.02 respectively as problems. Rural urban migration among the rural youths has caused farm labour shortage resulting to high wage rate used in ameliorating climate change effects. Since most farmers do not have access to land because of land tenure, farmers find it difficult to shifting to another farm during emergencies. Table 3: Problems associated with farmers coping with climate change in Abia State, Nigeria Problems Very Serious Moderately Serious Less Serious Total Mean Scarcity of Improved Cassava Varieties Non Access to Meteorological Forecast/Data Irregular Training on Climate Change Pestilence Scarcity of Fertilizers Traditional Land Tenure Systems Inefficient Extension System Shortage of Labour 96(26.67) 234(65) 207(57.50) 99(27.50) 126(35) 156(43.33) 129(35.8) 64(26.67) 96(26.67) 70(29.17) 94(39.17) 78(32.50) 96(40) 76(31.67) 56(46.66) 10(8.33) 16(13.33) 40(33.33) 39(32.50) 20(16.67) 40(33.33) * 2.44* * 2.27* 2.04* Source: Field Survey Data, 2012 Decision Rule: 2.0 and above is Serious; Less than 2.0 is Less Serious; Very Serious 3, Moderately Serious 2, Less Serious 1; Values in parentheses are percentages. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS The main objective of the study is to analyze the effects of climatic variables on cassava farmers production in Abia State, Nigeria from The trend analysis using linear regression result showed that temperature and rain had effects on the output of cassava over the years, at 1.00% probability level as cassava production increased with time between in Abia State. Though rain had negative effects on cassava output, the attribute of drought tolerance which the crop has, had proved that it is a famine crop. Problems of non access of farmers to meteorological data, irregular training of farmers on climate change pestilence and inefficient extension system as major problems affecting farmers to coping with climate change effects. The study therefore recommends that deliberate policy aimed at organizing training for farmers by extension agencies and relevant agencies on early warnings in coping with climate variability and change, access to meteorological data and subsidy on farm inputs such as fertilizers, seeds and agrochemicals and reduction of labour costs should be advocated for increased cassava production. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The author wish to thank National Agricultural Extension Research Liaison Services/ Ahmadu Bello University, Umudike Abia State, Nigeria for providing data on cassava output from and National Root Crops Research Institute Umudike Abia State, Nigeria meteorological station for weather data on temperature, rain and relative humidity. REFERENCES Adejuwon, S. A Impact of Climate Variability and Change on Crop yield in Nigeria. Lead Paper Presented at the Stakeholders Workshop on Assessment of Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change Held at the Conference Centre, Obafemi Awolowo University Ile-Ife Osun State, Nigeria September. Akpabio, I Rural and Agricultural Sociology. In Agricultural Extension and Rural Sociology. Nwachukwu, I. and Onuekwusi, G (eds) Snap Press Ltd Enugu, Nigeria. Awa, E. T. and Tumanteh, A Cassava-Based Cropping Systems and Use of Inputs in Different Ecological Zone of Central Africa. African Journal of Root and Tuber Crops 4 (2): Diebold, F. X Elements of Forecasting. South Western College Publishing, Cincinnati, Ohio; USA. Ekong, E. E An Introduction to Rural Sociology. 2 nd Edition Dove Publishers Uyo, Nigeria. Federal Ministry of Environment (FME) Annual Report, Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Human Induced Global Warming Microsoft Encarta Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) The Science Basic. Third Assessment Report in the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press Pp.335. NJAFE VOL. 9 No. 4,

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