Grey Relational Analysis on the Relationship between Agricultural Modernization Development and Cultivated Land Resource Variations in Hubei Province

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1 Assocaton for Informaton Systems AIS Electronc Lbrary (AISeL) Eleventh Wuhan Internatonal Conference on e- Busness Wuhan Internatonal Conference on e-busness Grey Relatonal Analyss on the Relatonshp between Agrcultural Modernzaton Development and Cultvated Land Resource Varatons n Hube Provnce Jun Lv School of Economcs and Management, Chna Unversty of Geoscences, Chna Wefeng Yn School of Economcs and Management, Chna Unversty of Geoscences, Chna, jacynwefeng@163.com Follow ths and addtonal wors at: Recommended Ctaton Lv, Jun and Yn, Wefeng, "Grey Relatonal Analyss on the Relatonshp between Agrcultural Modernzaton Development and Cultvated Land Resource Varatons n Hube Provnce" (212). Eleventh Wuhan Internatonal Conference on e-busness Ths materal s brought to you by the Wuhan Internatonal Conference on e-busness at AIS Electronc Lbrary (AISeL). It has been accepted for ncluson n Eleventh Wuhan Internatonal Conference on e-busness by an authorzed admnstrator of AIS Electronc Lbrary (AISeL). For more nformaton, please contact elbrary@asnet.org.

2 634 The Eleventh Wuhan Internatonal Conference on E-Busness Operatons & Servces Management Trac Grey Relatonal Analyss on the Relatonshp between Agrcultural Modernzaton Development and Cultvated Land Resource Varatons n Hube Provnce Lv Jun, Yn Wefeng * School of Economcs and Management, Chna Unversty of Geoscences, Chna Abstract: The rapd development of agrcultural modernzaton n Hube provnce has an nfluence on cultvated land resources varatons to a certan degree. Ths paper used grey relatonal analyss method,combned wth Hube provnce cultvated land area decreased data wthn the year coverng 2 to 21 and agrcultural modernzaton development ndex data, then analyzed the nfluence relatonshp between agrcultural modernzaton development and cultvated land resources varatons. Through calculatng then obtaned the relatonal degree of each ndex of agrcultural modernzaton and cultvated land resources varatons n Hube provnce r 1 =.6518, r 2 =.6814, r 3 =.6737, r 4 =.694, r 5 =.72, r 6 =.6175,turned out to be r 5 > r 4 > r 2 > r 3 > r 1 > r 6 by sequencng. Result shows that rrgaton ndex-effectve rrgaton area has the hghest relatonal degree on cultvated land resources varatons, three chemcal ndexes are n the second place followed by successvely are plastc flms, fertlzers and pestcdes accordng to relatonal degree, then the electrfcaton ndexelectrcty consumpton and the last mechanzaton ndex-total power of agrcultural machnery. The sequence means water conservancy facltes constructon and reasonableness and scentfcalness of ts utlty should be taen nto serously, and the dependence degree of usng fertlzers, pestcdes and plastc flms should be reduced n the meanwhle, electrfcaton and mechanzaton development of modern agrculture should be ept mprovng the producton effcency and protectng cultvated land resources. Keywords: Hube provnce, agrcultural modernzaton, cultvated land varatons, gray relatonal analyss 1. INTRODUCTION Wth the development of economy, agrcultural producton model of Hube provnce has changed from a nd of closed, self-supportng and low level type of tradtonal agrculture model nto a nd of open, commutatve, advanced and hgh level type of modern agrcultural model. Therefore, the labor productvty level and resources output level has been mproved. However, the rapd development of modern agrculture reles heavly on advanced agrcultural producton materal and techncal condtons, such as modern agrcultural electrfcaton, mechanzaton, rrgaton, chemcalzaton and nformatzaton and so forth, The usng of large machnes can cause excessve sol tllage and aggravate wnd & water eroson of cultvated land sol, also a large number of pestcdes, fertlzers and plastc sheetng's long-term use can lead to the sol fertlty damage and the problems of effectve nutrtonal element mbalances and sol hardenng and fnally result n cultvated land area reducton and qualty of arable land degradaton [1]. As Chna's mportant agrcultural producton base, Hube provnce s cultvated land resource s the foundaton of food producton and agrcultural development. Thus, analyss of the nfluence relatonshp of agrcultural modernzaton and cultvated land resource varatons n Hube provnce has very mportant practcal sgnfcance to realze the wn-wn stuaton of agrcultural modernzaton development and effectve use and protecton of cultvated land resources n Hube provnce. * Correspondng author. Emal: jacynwefeng@163.com (Yn Wefeng)

3 The Eleventh Wuhan Internatonal Conference on E-Busness Operatons & Servces Management Trac RESEARCH STATUS AT HOME AND ABROAD In 1991, Unted Natons Food and Agrculture Organzaton ponted out that the sustanable development of the modern agrculture s to apply a based method of certan usng and mantanng the natural resources and carry out techncal revoluton and mechansm change n order to meet agrcultural producton output demand of contemporary people and future generatons and mantan cultvated land sol and water resources [2]. Alter thought modern agrculture should satsfy the cultvated land n sol fertlty recoverablty and economc ratonalty at the same tme whch meant f modern agrcultural development wanted to attan sustanable development wth hgh producton and effcency then t must develop harmonously wth ecologcal envronment [3].Also, Japan emphaszed too much on mprovng the land productvty, reled excessvely on pestcdes and fertlzers and led to sol and water loss of cultvated land resources n a long perod of post-war tme durng the progress of modern agrcultural development and t was untl 199s that Japan put forward "envronmental preservaton agrculture" measures and ensure that the modern agrcultural development was sustanable development and envronmental frendly that Japan fnally solved the problems of sol and water loss and sol polluton effcently [4].Tong Shaoyu thought that the modern agrcultural producton whch ncluded large-scale producton and professonal and ntensve producton used a bg amount of chemcal fertlzers and large agrcultural machnery and led to not only the sol eroson and land degradaton, but also bodversty decrease [5].Guo Janqn consdered that the modern agrcultural characterstc was ntensfcaton, mechanzaton and chemcalzaton and large machnery ploughed sol deeply led to sol and water loss and sol hardenng [6].Cao Huayng,Zhang Huanlng and Zhang Ln thought that agrcultural chemcals le hexachloro-cyclohexane soprocde was not easy to brea down and Irrgaton would also destroy the sol aggregate structure and mae the sol collod nflaton then fnally led to cultvated land fertlty condtons deterorated [7]. Wang Dongxa, Lv Fengxang and Shang Fenlan ndcated that although the nstallaton level of agrcultural development has been mproved, the vestgtal problem of facltes le mulchng flms caused sol mosture reducton and weaened the land sol drought resstance [8]. 3. WHAT IS GRAY RELATIONAL ANALYSIS? Grey Relatonal Analyss(GRA) s a nd of multfactor statstcal analyss method, accordng to the sample data of all the factors between two systems, the smlar or dfferent degree of the development trend and the smlarty degree of the sequence geometry curves to judge whether ts contact closely. The closer of the curves, the greater relatonal degree between the correspondng sequences [9-1]. Grey relatonal analyss calculaton procedure as follows: Analyzng the orgnal data and determnng a dependent varable sequence and several ndependent sequences. Supposng the dependent varable sequence: Supposng the ndependent varable sequences: Y t) = { y = 1,2,..., } (1) ( n Y ( t) { y = 1,2,..., n},( 1,2,..., N) = (2) = Applyng standardzaton and ntalzaton of the orgnal data to ensure that the orgnal data dmenson unty, e.g. ntalzaton of the orgnal data: y X = (3) y ( l)

4 636 The Eleventh Wuhan Internatonal Conference on E-Busness Operatons & Servces Management Trac X y = (4) y ( l) Calculatng the dfference sequence by calculatng the absolute dfference value between the dependent sequence and correspondng perod ndependent sequence: ) = x ( ) (5) ( Then determnng the maxmum absolute dfference Δ max and the mnmum absolute dfference Δ mn. Calculatng relatonal coeffcent by formula as follows: mn = mn x + max x + max max max x x ξ () s relatonal coeffcent between x (t) and x (t) n perod ; ρ s resoluton rato whch s n [, 1] value nterval and generally ρ Calculatng the relatonal degree by formula as follows: n 1 1 r = = [ (1) + (2) ( n)] n n 1 = (7) Then Sequencng the relatonal degree by numercal sze, f r 1 >r 2, t means that the dependent varable sequence Y (t) s much more smlar to Y 1 (t) than to Y 2 (t). (6) 4. GREY REATIONAL DEGREE CALCULATION AND ANALYSIS ON AGRICULTURAL MODERNIZATION DEVELOPMENT AND CULTIVATED LAND RESOURCE VARIATIONS Accordng to the data of agrcultural modernzaton development and cultvated land resources varaton coverng 2 to 21 n Hube provnce, suppose the cultvated land resource varaton data sequence s the dependent varable sequence Y (t) and the ndependent varable sequences are the agrcultural modernzaton development ndexes, ncludng electrfcaton ndex- electrcty consumed n rural area Y 1 (t), chemcalzaton ndexes- consumpton of fertlzers Y 2 (t), agrcultural nsectcdes Y 3 (t) and plastc flms Y 4 (t), rrgaton ndexeffectve rrgaton area Y 5 (t) and mechanzaton ndex-total power of agrcultural machnery Y 6 (t). Table 1. Agrcultural modernzaton development and cultvated land resources varaton cultvated land reducton (1 hec) electrcty consumpton (1 ml Wh) Fertlzers pestcdes plastc flms effectve rrgaton area (1 hec) total power of agrcultural machnery (1 W)

5 The Eleventh Wuhan Internatonal Conference on E-Busness Operatons & Servces Management Trac The orgnal data dmensonless processng Based on the data of 2 as a benchmar, ntalzng each data sequences can ensure dmenson consstent and get ntalzed data sequences X (t),x 1 (t), X 2 (t), X 3 (t), X 4 (t), X 5 (t) and X 6 (t). Table 2. Intalzed data sequences of each ndex cultvated land reducton (1 hec) electrcty consumpton (1 ml Wh) Fertlzers pestcdes plastc flms effectve rrgaton area (1 hec) total power of agrcultural machnery (1 W) Calculatng dfference sequence Accordng to formula (5), calculatng the data can obtan the maxmum absolute dfference Δ max = and the mnmum absolute dfference Δ mn =. 4.3 Calculatng relatonal coeffcent and gray relatonal degree Because ρ.5463 and n order to mprove the resoluton rato, determng ρ=.3.accordng to formula (6) and (7), then obtanng the fnal gray relatonal degree of each ndex as follows: r 1 =.6518, r 2 =.6814, r 3 =.6737, r 4 =.694, r 5 =.72, r 6 =.6175 and turnng out to be r 5 > r 4 > r 2 > r 3 > r 1 > r 6 by sequencng. Table 3. Grey relatonal degree of each ndex electrcty consumpton (1 ml Wh) Fertlzers pestcdes plastc flms effectve rrgaton area (1 hec) total power of agrcultural machnery (1 W) cultvated land reducton(1 hec) CONCLUSIONS In the grey relatonal analyss of modern agrculture development and cultvated land resources varaton n Hube provnce (Table 3): Irrgaton ndex-effectve rrgaton area Y 5 (t) has the hghest relatonal degree to cultvated land resource varatons Y (t), three chemcal ndexes are n the second place and successvely are plastc flm Y 4 (t), fertlzers Y 2 (t) and pestcdes Y 3 (t) accordng to relatonal degree, then the electrfcaton ndex-electrcty consumpton Y 1 (t) and the last mechanzaton ndex-total power of agrcultural machnery Y 6 (t).

6 638 The Eleventh Wuhan Internatonal Conference on E-Busness Operatons & Servces Management Trac The relatonal degree of rrgaton ndex-effectve rrgaton area Y 5 (t) to cultvated land resource varatons s r 5 =.72 whch s n the hghest place of all ndexes. Result shows that the strength of the constructon of water conservancy facltes has a major nfluence on the cultvated land resources and the convenence of rrgaton also caused sol and water loss of farmland n Hube provnce. Three chemcalzaton ndexes-plastc flm Y 4 (t), fertlzers Y 2 (t) and pestcdes Y 3 (t) are r 4 =.694, r2=.6814, r3=.6737 respectvely and very close to each other.it means that agrcultural producton n Hube provnce depend a great extent on a large amount of usng plastc flm fertlzers and pestcdes and thus lead to sol hardenng and degradaton and cultvated land loss. Electrfcaton ndex-electrcty consumpton Y 1 (t) and mechanzaton ndex-total power of agrcultural machnery Y 6 (t) have less effect on the cultvated land loss relatvely. Result ndcates that agrcultural producton n Hube provnce uses the electrc power resources and mechancal equpments effectvely. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT Ths research was supported by the Humantes and Socal Scence Foundaton of Mnstry of Educaton under Grant 9YJA REFERENCES [1] We Yuanmng, Wang Jng, Qao Yanjun. ( 25). Influence of Chemcal Fertlzer,Pestcde and Plastc Flm on Agrcultural Ecology Envronment n Gansu Provnce. Journal of Desert Research, 25(6): [2] FAO. ( 1991).Den Burg Manfesto and Agenda on Sustanable Agrculture and Rural Development. Congress of Agrculture and Envronment. Den Burg, Netherlands. [3] Alter M.Agroecology. ( 1989). A New Research and Development Paradgm for World Agrculture. Agrculture, Ecosystem and Envronment, (27): [4] Jao Bfang, Sun Bnbn. (29). Development and Enlghtenment on the Agrculture for sustanng and envronmental Preservaton n Japan. Chna populaton, resources and envronment, 19(4):7-76. [5] Tong Shaoyu. ( 23). A Bref Analyss of the Influences of Modern Agrculture on Ecotope.Journal of Chuxong Normal Unversty, 18(3): [6] Guo Janqn. (1989). Agrcultural Producton Influence on the Ecologcal Envronment. Agro-envronment Protecton, 8(4): [7] Cao Huayng, Zhang Huanlng, Zhang Ln. ( 27).A Bref Dscusson of Agrculture Influence on Eco-envronment. Shandong Agrculture, 12(3):21. [8] Wang Dongxa, Lv Fengxang, Shang Fenlan. ( 29). A Bref Analyss on the Influence and Preventve Measure of Faclty Agrculture on Ecologcal Envronment. Agro-envronment and Development, 5: [9] Lu Sfeng, Dang Yaoguo, Zhang Qshan. (24).Grey System Theory and Applcaton. Bejng: Scence Press. [1] Deng Julong. (199).Grey System Theory Tutorals.Wuhan: Huazhong Unversty of Technology. [11] Yao Baogang. ( 26).Development of Agrcultural Mechanzaton and Modern Agrculture. Journal of the Chnese Socety for Agrcultural Machnery, 37(1): [12] Deng Xanru, Yan Lng, Yang Shulng. ( 1998).Farmland Resource of Hube Provnce and Its Sustanable Utlzaton Strategy. Resources and Envronment n the Yangtze Basn, 7(1): [13] Chang Yuanlan, Lu Chengwu. (211).The Analyss of Cultvated Land Resources Change n Hube Provnce for Last 6 Years. Journal of Anhu Agrculture, 39(17): , [14] Dng Wenx. (21). Modern Agrculture and Sustanable Development of Ecologcal Agrculture. Chnese Agrculture Scence Bulletn, 26(15):