GROWTH OF AREA, PRODUCTION AND PRODUCTIVITY OF CROPS IN KERALA

Transcription

1 CHAPTER 4 GROWTH OF AREA, PRODUCTION AND PRODUCTIVITY OF CROPS IN KERALA In this chapter an attempt has been made to examine the growth of area, production and productivity of 12 principal crops in Kerala. The subsequent sections analyses at a broad level the rate of growth of area and production of principal crops and agricultural productivity; relative contributions of different factors such as yield (productivity), acreage and cropping pattern, pure price, interaction among the foregoing factors, in the growth of output of principal crops during the different periods from to Growth Trends of Principal crops Of late, it is being debated that productivity of crops in India, as well as in states, has been stagnant during the past few years. The argument is that during the late sixties and early mid-seventies, the production of food grains in the country has shown a rising trend but after this trend has not been maintained. It is argued that this has happened because the productivity is almost stagnant (Kannan KP, et.al, 1988). In this section an attempt has been made to analyse the trends in growth rates over the period to and the decadal changes in growth rates of area, production and productivity of principal crops of Kerala, viz, rice, coconut, arecanut, rubber, pepper, cashewnut, tapioca, coffee, tea, cardamom, ginger, banana and other plantains. 95

2 Growth trends of Area of Principal crops In this sub-section compound growth rates of area of 12 principal crops in Kerala over five periods of time from to has been examined and are presented in Table.4.1. The results of this analysis revealed that the growth rates of all the crops considered except ginger recorded higher for the first period. During period II rubber, cashewnut, coffee and cardamom exhibited higher growth rates in area under cultivation. For rice and tapioca, growth rates were positive only in the first period. In Kerala, the most important food crops rice and tapioca recorded a sharp decline in area and showed negative growth rate in all periods except period I. Table.4.1 shows that the crops whose growth rate in area is positive only in the case of rubber, coffee and banana during the five periods considered. Taking into consideration the crops individually, rice, cashewnut, tapioca and ginger showed negative growth rate at increasing rate. During to , among 12 crops, rice and tapioca exhibited highest negative growth rates (2.683 and percent per annum respectively) and rubber and coffee exhibited highest positive growth rates per annum (3.292 and respectively). During the overall period considered for analysis it is revealed that there is a change in cropping pattern in Kerala towards coconut and rubber as explained in chapter 3 and Table.4.1 clearly established this trend. Table.4.1 also revealed the fact that since , there is a change in cropping pattern from one non-food grain crop to another non-food grain crops (period V column of Table.4.1). 96

3 Table.4.1. Compound Growth Rates of Area of Principal crops in Kerala in different Periods. Sl. Period Period Period Period Period Overall Crops No. I II III IV V Period 1 Rice 2 Coconut 3 Arecanut 4 Rubber 5 Pepper 6 Cashewnut 7 Tapioca 8 Coffee 9 Tea 10 Cardamom 11 Ginger 12 Banana and other plantains ** *** *** **** ** ** **** **** ** , **** *** **** **** * *** * *** ** * - Significant at probability level 0.01 ** - Significant at probability level 0.03 *** - Significant at probability level 0.05 **** - Significant at probability level 0.10 Period I ( to ), II ( to ), III ( to ), IV ( to ), V ( to ), Overall Period ( to ) Growth trends of Production of Principal crops Growth in total agricultural production over a period of time gives an idea of the pace of agricultural development in the state (Mohandas M, 2005). During the first period, among the 12 principal crops, the highest rate of growth of production of percent per annum was recorded by tapioca. Rubber, arecanut, coffee, 97

4 cashewnut and coconut also registered significant growth in production during the period I. Table.4.2 shows that all the crops except rubber revealed fluctuations in growth rate of production in Kerala during the different decades. Table.4.2. Compound Growth Rates of Production of Principal crops in Kerala in different Periods. Sl. Period Period Period Period Period Overall Crops No. I II III IV V Period 1 Rice *** * Coconut **** Arecanut Rubber * Pepper ** * Cashewnut * *** *** *** ** 7 Tapioca Coffee Tea *** *** * Cardamom Ginger Banana and other plantains **** * - Significant at probability level 0.01 ** - Significant at probability level 0.03 *** - Significant at probability level 0.05 **** - Significant at probability level 0.10 Period I ( to ), II ( to ), III ( to ), IV ( to ), V ( to ), Overall Period ( to ). 98

5 From period II onwards food crops like rice and tapioca accounted deceleration in production. The compound growth rates of these two crops were negative during these periods. During period II rubber, coffee, cardamom and ginger recorded highest compound growth rates of above 5 percent. Other crops showed low and negative growth rates per annum. The highest positive growth rate during period III was for pepper and rubber; during period IV it was for arecanut, coffee, rubber, cardamom and banana. The highest negative growth rate in period IV was observed in the case of rice and cashewnut production in Kerala. One significant feature observed from Table.4.2 is that all crops except rubber and arecanut recorded very low and negative compound growth rates during to time period. Rice, pepper, cashewnut, coffee, tea and ginger exhibited more than 2 percent negative growth rates. Crops like coconut, tapioca, cardamom and ginger showed very low positive rates of growth during these years Growth trends of productivity of Principal crops Table.4.3 shows the rate of growth of productivity of 12 major crops in Kerala during the different periods. It would be noted that sub-period I is marked by better performance of productivity for two crops, rubber and tapioca. Other crops have registered very low positive and negative growth rates. During other sub-periods, better performance of productivity was observed in the case of majority of crops. It is interesting to observe that the rate of growth of productivity of rice was very low in Kerala in all the sub-periods. Rubber and arecanut are the only two crops registered positive and high growth rates in productivity in all the sub-periods under study. Up to the third period the productivity trend of coconut was negative; but after that period the growth rate of coconut productivity has been increasing. 99

6 Table.4.3. Compound Growth Rates of Productivity of Principal crops in Kerala in different Periods. Sl. Period Period Period Period Period Overall Crops No. I II III IV V Period * * 1 Rice Coconut 3 Arecanut 4 Rubber 5 Pepper 6 Cashewnut 7 Tapioca 8 Coffee 9 Tea 10 Cardamom 11 Ginger 12 Banana and other plantains * **** **** **** ** * * **** * **** **** * * * **** * ** * * - Significant at probability level 0.01 ** - Significant at probability level 0.03 **** - Significant at probability level 0.10 Period I ( to ), II ( to ), III ( to ), IV ( to ), V ( to ), Overall Period ( to ). Compound growth rates of productivity of pepper, cashewnut, tapioca, coffee, tea, cardamom and ginger showed fluctuating trend during the different sub-periods. For overall period rice and cashewnut recorded negative growth rate in productivity; banana, pepper and coconut registered a growth rate below one percent; rubber, cardamom, ginger and arecanut observed a compound growth rate above 3 percent 100

7 per annum and other crops between one percent and three percent compound growth rate. A comparison of Table.4.1, 4.2 and 4.3, one thing that is interesting to observe that rice and cashewnut registered negative growth rate in area, production and productivity during the overall period from to in Kerala. The analysis indicated that during the entire period of study the increased productivity trend of arecanut, tapioca, tea, cardamom and ginger was seen corresponding to its area trend. For crops banana, coffee, coconut and pepper the increased area trend was seen compared to rate of growth of productivity. The analysis indicated that in terms of production, area and productivity, performance of rubber has been outstanding during the period to Growth of agricultural production: A component analysis This section made an attempt to analyse the growth of agricultural production in the state in terms of its determinants, viz, area, productivity and prices. Changes in the gross cropped area, productivity and level of prices are the important components influencing the growth of aggregate agricultural output (Kaushik KK, 1993). The main aim, here, is to decompose the increase in agricultural output into its components (real and monetary) and thereby to identify, to the extent possible, the factors responsible for the increase. In this process, an attempt is also made to explain the movements in cropping pattern observed in chapter 3 and relates them to some explanatory factors. There are, therefore, disparate variables that we must take into account like area under cultivation, prices, yield, etc. Decomposition of output growth is not a new concept in the field of agricultural growth analysis. Still it has its usual importance to the researchers and 101

8 policy makers for identifying the root causes of high and low growth of agricultural output. Although some attempts were made to explain agricultural growth in terms of the area and yield components, the first systematic study was pioneered by Minhas and Vaidyananthan (1965). The growth of crop output was decomposed into a set of physical factors, such as, area, yield and rate of cropping pattern as well as interaction between the latter two. Later, Minhas developed a seven-component version of his additive scheme which was subsequently used by Mishra VN (1971) for his study. Rajender Sondhi, et.al (1975), Vidhya Sagar (1977), Dharm Narain (1977), Dashora SK, et.al (2000) and Kurosaki Takashi (2002) used the same as well as a modified version of the Minhas-Vaidyananthan model. Besides these methodology used for decomposition, Ashok Parikh (1966), Dayal (1966) and Bhalla, et.al (1979) adopted multiplicative schemes, instead of the additive schemes, in their decomposition exercise. Kurien CT and Joseph James (1979) and Kaushik KK (1993) used a procedure which was a modification of the Minhas-Vaidyananthan method to study the relative contribution of different elements to the growth of crop output in Tamilnadu and Himachal Pradesh and here this procedure was followed to study the overall growth of principal crop output in Kerala Relative Contribution of different elements to the growth of principal crop output in Kerala The relative contribution of different elements to the growth of principal crop output in Kerala was done from to considering five sub-periods (I, II, III, IV and V) for 12 principal crops. 102

9 Since the period can be broken up in different ways, and the result will vary accordingly, decade wise classification of the entire period into five sub-periods was undertaken. In choosing the crops for analysis, the primary consideration has been to ensure maximum coverage of cropped area. The value of the variables share of area, yield, prices and total cropped area in period I to V are shown in Table Table.4.4. Decomposition of output growth of Principal crops in Kerala. Sl. Period I Crops No. c0 y0 w0 ct yt wt 1 Rice Coconut Arecanut Rubber Pepper Cashewnut Tapioca Coffee Tea Cardamom Ginger Banana and other plantains A 0 = 2349 ( 000 hectare) A t = 2916 ( 000 hectare) Sl. Period II Crops No. c0 y0 w0 ct yt wt 1 Rice Coconut Arecanut Rubber Pepper Cashewnut Tapioca Coffee Tea Cardamom Ginger Banana and other plantains A 0 = 2933 ( 000 hectare) A t = 2854 ( 000 hectare) 103

10 Sl. No. Crops Period III c0 y0 w0 ct yt wt 1 Rice Coconut Arecanut Rubber Pepper Cashewnut Tapioca Coffee Tea Cardamom Ginger Banana and other plantains A 0 = 2885 ( 000 hectare) A t = 3019 ( 000 hectare) Sl. Period IV Crops No. c0 y0 w0 ct yt wt 1 Rice Coconut Arecanut Rubber Pepper Cashewnut Tapioca Coffee Tea Cardamom Ginger Banana and other plantains A 0 = 3020 ( 000 hectare) A t = 3017 ( 000 hectare) 104

11 Sl. Period V Crops No. c0 y0 w0 ct yt wt 1 Rice Coconut Arecanut Rubber Pepper Cashewnut Tapioca Coffee Tea Cardamom Ginger Banana and other plantains A 0 = 3022 ( 000 hectare) A t = 2669 ( 000 hectare) Sl. Overall Period Crops No. c0 y0 w0 ct yt wt 1 Rice Coconut Arecanut Rubber Pepper Cashewnut Tapioca Coffee Tea Cardamom Ginger Banana and other plantains A 0 = 2349 ( 000 hectare) A t = 2669 ( 000 hectare) c 0, c t - Share of area (%) of the total cropped area, y 0, y t - Output in Kg per hectare, w 0, w t - Price per quintal (In Rupees). Period I ( to ), II ( to ), III ( to ), IV ( to ), V ( to ), Overall Period ( to ). Source:- Computed from (i) Statistics for planning (various issues), Department of Economics and Statistics, Govt. of Kerala, Thiruvananthapuram. (ii) Economic Review (various issues), State Planning Board, Govt. of Kerala, Thiruvananthapuram. 105

12 The results of the analysis are summarised in Table Serial number one in the table indicates overall growth rate. The increase in the value of agricultural output for the state as a whole is percent in period I, percent in period II, 192 percent in period III, percent in period IV and percent in period V. The overall growth is decomposed into real growth (Serial number 6) and monetary growth (Serial number 11). With percent of the overall growth being real and percent being monetary in period I, percent being real and percent being monetary in period II, percent being real and percent being monetary in period III, percent being real and percent being monetary in period IV and 1.01 percent being real and percent being monetary in period V. The above analysis shows that the real growth has tended to decline from percent in period I to 1.01 percent in period V and monetary growth has correspondingly risen from percent in period I to percent in period V. Comparison of the real and monetary growth during different periods shows the decomposition of the overall growth in percentage terms and revealed the dominance of monetary growth over real growth in all the periods under study. Comparison of the relative contribution of different components to real growth in period I show that area effect and yield effect together contributed positive value to real growth. The cropping pattern effect is very low and the interaction effect turned to be negativity contributed to real growth during period I. During the period II area effect came down negative value while yield effect, cropping pattern effect and interaction effect increased. The increase in yield effect continued up to the fourth period and after that it decreased. The cropping pattern effect increased up to the third period after that it 106

13 also decreased. The area effect and interaction effect were negative during the fourth and fifth periods. The yield effect and the cropping pattern effect increased up to the third period and after that it decreased and reached very low during the fifth period showing decrease in the real growth to 1.01 percent as shown in Table.4.5 during period V. Table.4.5. Relative contribution of different elements to the growth of Principal crop output in Kerala during different periods. (In percentages) Sl. No. 1 Elements Period I II III IV V OP Overall growth Area effect Yield effect Cropping pattern effect Interaction effect Real Growth ( ) Pure price effect Price Yield effect Price cropping pattern effect Total Interaction effect 11 Monetary Growth ( ) Total (6+11) Period I ( to ), II ( to ), III ( to ), IV ( to ), V ( to ), Overall Period-OP ( to ). Source: - Computed from Table

14 Coming to the price effect, one notices that from percent in period I it increased to percent in period V. The price yield effect has declined up to period IV and in period V it increased to percent. The price cropping pattern effect which was negative during the former period has changed to positive (10.65 percent) during the period V. The total interaction effect also increased during the period V. The single major factor of output growth during the different periods was the price effect, has increased up to the third period and after that there was a slow decrease. The conclusions that emerges from the foregoing is that there is a perceptible decline in real growth, area effect, yield effect, cropping pattern effect and interaction effect; and an increase in monetary growth, price effect, price yield effect, price cropping pattern effect and total interaction effect during period V as compared to other periods under study. It can also be seen that price factor is the major element in determining the relative contribution of different elements to the growth of major crop output in Kerala during the different periods. More specifically, the overall growth in Kerala in the agriculture sector is actually monetary growth rather than real growth. It has already been observed that changes in productivity and cropping pattern are the main clues for increase in the real growth of the agricultural sector in Kerala during the different periods. During period V price yield effect and price cropping pattern effect are positive and high. This implies that the cropping pattern has shifted in favour of those crops for which the money value and yield are high Decomposition of growth of output of principal crops in Kerala Table.4.6 gives the decomposition of the increase in the value of output of 12 principal crops in Kerala for periods I to V. Taking period I first, it is noted in serial 108

15 number 1 of Table 4.6 that the percentage increase in value of output for each crop ranges from Ginger s high of to tea s The main divisions into real component and monetary components have been given in serial number 6 and 11 respectively of the 12 crops in Table It is seen that the real growth is positive for 10 crops; tea and ginger have negative real growth during period I. For coconut, cashewnut, tapioca, tea, cardamom, ginger, banana and other plantains monetary growth is greater than real growth. During period II, III and IV 10 crops out of the 12 crops studied shows higher monetary growth in relation to real growth. In period V four crops observed negative monetary growth and six crops observed higher monetary growth over real growth. It may be further noted in the Table.4.6 that rubber and coffee observed positive cropping pattern effect in all the periods under consideration. During period I rubber and arecanut had positive values for all the components in the real and monetary growth. In period II, rubber and coffee exhibited positive values in all the components. During period III four crops (coconut, rubber, ginger and banana), in period IV six crops (coconut, arecanut, rubber, coffee, tea and banana) and in period V two crops (arecanut and rubber) exhibited positive values in all the components for real and monetary growth. Among the 12 crops analysed during the different periods, rubber is the only crop which has positive values in all the components in the decomposition of growth of output in real and monetary terms. A comparison between the different periods clearly shows that pure price effect is the main component dominating the increase in the value of output of majority of the crops studied in Kerala. From the above analysis, it is revealed that the increase in the value of output of all the crops 109

16 analysed in the overall period from to , is monetary growth in nature rather than real growth. (All the crops exhibited more than 90 percent monetary growth as compared to real growth). Price and non-price factors have a definite bearing up on agricultural growth. It is noticed that in different sub-periods and also in the overall period price factors influence the level of output in majority of the crops as compared to the non-price factors. At the same time real factors like area effect, yield effect and cropping pattern effect have definite bearing upon crops, particularly non-food crops, during different periods. 110

17 Sl. No. Table.4.6. Decomposition of growth of output of Principal crops in Kerala in different periods. (In percentages) 1- Rice Elements Period I II III IV V OP 1 Increase in value of output Area effect Yield effect Cropping pattern effect Interaction effect Real Growth ( ) Pure price effect Price Yield effect Price cropping pattern effect Total Interaction effect Monetary Growth ( ) Total (6 +11)

18 2- Coconut Sl. No. Elements Period I II III IV V OP 1 Increase in value of output Area effect Yield effect Cropping pattern effect Interaction effect Real Growth ( ) Pure price effect Price Yield effect Price cropping pattern effect Total Interaction effect Monetary Growth ( ) Total (6 +11)

19 3- Arecanut Sl. No. Elements Period I II III IV V OP 1 Increase in value of output Area effect Yield effect Cropping pattern effect Interaction effect Real Growth ( ) Pure price effect Price Yield effect Price cropping pattern effect Total Interaction effect Monetary Growth ( ) Total (6 +11)

20 4 Rubber Sl. No. Elements Period I II III IV V OP 1 Increase in value of output Area effect Yield effect Cropping pattern effect Interaction effect Real Growth ( ) Pure price effect Price Yield effect Price cropping pattern effect Total Interaction effect Monetary Growth ( ) Total (6 +11)

21 5 Pepper Sl. No. Elements Period I II III IV V OP 1 Increase in value of output Area effect Yield effect Cropping pattern effect Interaction effect Real Growth ( ) Pure price effect Price Yield effect Price cropping pattern effect Total Interaction effect Monetary Growth ( ) Total (6 +11)

22 6 Cashewnut Sl. No. Elements Period I II III IV V OP 1 Increase in value of output Area effect Yield effect Cropping pattern effect Interaction effect Real Growth ( ) Pure price effect Price Yield effect Price cropping pattern effect Total Interaction effect Monetary Growth ( ) Total (6 +11)

23 7 Tapioca Sl. No. Elements Period I II III IV V OP 1 Increase in value of output Area effect Yield effect Cropping pattern effect Interaction effect Real Growth ( ) Pure price effect Price Yield effect Price cropping pattern effect Total Interaction effect Monetary Growth ( ) Total (6 +11)

24 8 Coffee Sl. No. Elements Period I II III IV V OP 1 Increase in value of output Area effect Yield effect Cropping pattern effect Interaction effect Real Growth ( ) Pure price effect Price Yield effect Price cropping pattern effect Total Interaction effect Monetary Growth ( ) Total (6 +11)

25 9 Tea Sl. No. Elements Period I II III IV V OP 1 Increase in value of output Area effect Yield effect Cropping pattern effect Interaction effect Real Growth ( ) Pure price effect Price Yield effect Price cropping pattern effect Total Interaction effect Monetary Growth ( ) Total (6 +11)

26 10 Cardamom Sl. No. Elements Period I II III IV V OP 1 Increase in value of output Area effect Yield effect Cropping pattern effect Interaction effect Real Growth ( ) Pure price effect Price Yield effect Price cropping pattern effect Total Interaction effect Monetary Growth ( ) Total (6 +11)

27 11 Ginger Sl. No. Elements Period I II III IV V OP 1 Increase in value of output Area effect Yield effect Cropping pattern effect Interaction effect Real Growth ( ) Pure price effect Price Yield effect Price cropping pattern effect Total Interaction effect Monetary Growth ( ) Total (6 +11)

28 12 - Banana and other plantains Sl. No. Elements Period I II III IV V OP 1 Increase in value of output Area effect Yield effect Cropping pattern effect Interaction effect Real Growth ( ) Pure price effect Price Yield effect Price cropping pattern effect Total Interaction effect Monetary Growth ( ) Total (6 +11) Period I ( to ), II ( to ), III ( to ), IV ( to ), V ( to ), Overall Period- OP ( to ). Source:- Computed from (i) Statistics for planning (various issues), Department of Economics and Statistics, Govt. of Kerala, Thiruvananthapuram. (ii) Economic Review (various issues), State Planning Board, Govt. of Kerala, Thiruvananthapuram. 122